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Hammerwise

Member Since
Aug. 7, 2018
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Toronto Maple Leafs
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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 23 at 11:06 p.m.
Thread: Keeping the Core 4
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>The Leafs dont have a lot of youth, they havent really had a true rookie forward become a full timer for a few seasons now. Sandin is gone and Liljegren was a healthy scratch in the playoffs/Timmins didnt dress at all. Knies is here, but the only other high end prospects are either struggling/failing (Amirov/Robertson), looking iffy/midlevel/more likely AHLers (Steeves/SDA) or a few years away (Niemala/Hirvonen) but its a real thin group of youngsters, and one reason the Leafs are in cap trouble annually, not enough ELC on the roster.

Alot of picks are gone over the next 3 years. So overall there isn;t a large or good group of youngsters they have to fill KEY roles, and due to the lack of picks that probably gets worse

Saying that, Leafs window is NOW. They have tried the 4 forwards approach and if you're looking for change it certainly isnt the usual tinkering of bargain basement UFAs for the bottom 6, and the team is even more limited now when it comes to TDL assets. The defense is reaching implosion with Giordano, Brodie filling KEY top 6 roles and nearing retirement.

So if the Leafs do change, it has to start with one of the big 4, and I just dont think you get the value for Tavares (partly his contract, his age, his speed and his declining 2 way game), so really its just the 3

Problems are:

You need to move them this offseason, they carry a huge cap hit at TDL, most contenders wont have that kind of space left or be looking at paying market value/long term re-signing, BUT most importantly, if you deal one of them at TDL you are pretty much tanking in the year. Why would the leafs, who'll be a contender, suddenly tank their own playoff hopes. If they are kept thru 23-24, the UFA rights wont get back as good a package, and Marner on last yr will have a slightly lesser value,
The leafs window is now, so any of the big 4 you move, you need a suitable, albeit lesser replacement
you're never going to get a Marner for a Marner or a Matthews for a Matthews. (you might get 2-4 assets that help you build a TEAM)

So for example, (and just an rough one), if CGY offered top 6 RW replacement Toffoli, solid 20+ goal scorer but expiring UFA and a solid top 4 RD Tanev (if he wasnt a UFA too) and a 1st and a bit more for expiring Nylander, isnt the best offer, but it addresses the short term loss of Nylander with toffoli, provides another KEY piece elsewhere in the team and replaces some of the draft capitol we lack, it'd be worth thinking about, because theoretically it could make the leafs a better team, even though they're moving the best player. Or (again rough example at best) say PHI offers a bunch of young guys like C Morgan Frost, RW prospect Bobby Brink, RW Owen Tippett and LD prospect Adam Ginning for Marner, you get THEORETICALLY a 2C, A 2RW, two prospects who are the best at the position in this orgainzation AND approx 5mil in cap space.</div></div>

I appreciate your thorough response. I get where you're coming from, but I firmly believe the CGY/FLA trade is a one-off that will never happen (at least in that magnitude) again. GMs are going to be much more cautious about big trades after that and for good reason. If you go through the league, there's a slim amount of teams actually looking to trade for a superstar piece like the Tkachuk deal. Maybe the Kings and Kraken consider trading some depth in for Marner/Nylander? Maybe Nashville? Carolina? Surely you wouldn't trade with Buffalo? I dunno, just scanning the teams in the league and there's few teams that even make a little sense.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 8:57 a.m.
Thread: Realistic 2023 Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>Some not bad ideas, although not sure the final two trades work for CAR or ARZ, they might need more than that.

I'd think a better RD option for BUF instead of Severson would be Dumba. Hes more physical, stay at home, glove dropper that would enable Power to puck rush more. And I cant see being a 7th enabling Jokiharju a helping hand, I'd look to move him before he loses more value.

Theres a good amount of physicality on the 4th line, but maybe not enough the 2nd or 3rd, and that 3rd line might be too young/passive. Not sure theres enough grit, leadership spread through the lineup

Like the move for Demko though</div></div>

Dumba was the other option but too injured prone
Internal competition with Joker and Bush, when Bush contract expires, Joker will have the 3RHD spot
Cozens doesn't play small but I agree they lack sandpaper on the 2nd and 3rd line (Kane,Mitts,JJP,Quinn,Jost). I just don't know what they could do differently
Maybe don't sign Kane and go after a guy like Killorn in free agency ?
ARI get the younger dman in Bryson, I don't think they would mind this move
For CAR, they get a goal scoring PP specialist
I think Honka is a fair prospect going the other way, since Scott Morrow &amp; Aleksi Heimosalmi are off limits for V. Olofsson
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 8:32 a.m.
Thread: Keeping the Core 4
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>Problem is after 19 years of not making the playoffs or not making it out of the first round, when they are a perenial regular season contender, you cant just keep telling the fans to stay the course.

The idea that the leafs will just ride out tavares contract and then be blessed with oodles of cap space, or that all of the prospects will overachieve and hit are both closer to pipe dreams than reality.

UFAs like Matthews and Nylander will both be in line for raises probably in the 3mil range or more, Marner hits UFA when the cap jumps so he'll get 3mil or more so suddenly that four of marner, matthews, reilly, and nylander will be closer to 46-48mil on a cap of 90mil as opposed to 41mil on a cap of 83mil on a team that lacks high end prospects and picks, so I'm not sure that staying the course, should be the course.

If this was a 1st, 2nd or 3rd post season they underachieved as a group maybe I'd be more willing to have another go, but looking at that defense, another year of unreliable goalkeeping management, the lack of high end prospects, and the lack of picks, I think something has to change. Yes, the playoffs are tough, but all those teams that are out have either won it recently or made a serious threat to in recent years.

The Leafs will be competitive and will be a contender, but theres a reason they are an annual laughingstock. Getting one win in the second round is TOO low a bar IMO, for a team as talented as the Leafs, that contend every regular season. And I dont blame it on the big 4 forwards or reilly, its really about the entire team structure, from the cap to the icetime, the stubborn refusal to evaluate or acquire quality goaltending talent, and the continual and annual tinkering or bargain basement shopping to fix things within the team that pop up year after year, (such as grit, toughness, two way forwards, bottom 6 offense, stay at home/physical defenders).

I think the example of Dubas really throwing so many picks out there at the deadline shows that Dubas, Shanahan, Keefe and leaf fans really wanted and NEEDED it this year. The fact that Dubas went out acquired THREE defenders at the TDL or that Keefe dressed 7 defensemen and that the only young defenders Liljegren was a healthy scratch for half the playoffs and Timmins didnt dress at all, doesn;t bode well for what the leafs need to succeed in the playoffs or moving forward into next year, ignoring the fact that both those guys werent deemed good enough now.

The cap might be growing but so will the big 4 salaries, so the % of the pie they take will remain constant, as will the lack of quality depth, which will join a smaller pool of prospects/picks they now possess. The status quo has been tried and isnt working.</div></div>

Why stop at 19 years of failure? I know Leaf fans really want the drought to end but if the Organization is putting pressure on management and players to win in 4-5 years, the turnover of the core in Toronto will likely be at a high rate. Look at how long it took Stamkos and Hedman to win their first cup, or MacKinnon or Ovechkin or the Blues group, not everyone can be like the Chi and Pitt groups, in fact that is pretty rare.

Finally, the Leafs did put a strong team together and they changed 1/3 of their team, it didn't work. Other than the core+Riell, a lot of the players haven't been around the team long. There is Kerfoot and Holl who are likely gone, so there is going to be change and has been change. Just not in the core, yet. A second round defeat isn't ideal but it is a different result technically.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 7:40 a.m.
Thread: Keeping the Core 4
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>I just dont see the internal upgrades needed, and with the big UFAs, they wont resign cheaply for mediocrity, and once again it'll be the same issue, good contender, lacking depth, trading prospects/picks for cup runs that end the same way. The only thing happening in 2-3 yrs time is that the big guys will be older, eating just as much a % of the cap, a defense hitting retirement and even less KEY prospects on the way.

Yeah, I just dont think you get a marner for a marner or a matthews for a matthews, I think based on the current team, and its limited key prospects and picks, a package might be better. Say Tkachuk for example, and bear in mind he was coming off an all around career year and was just a RFA, he got a top 6 forward and a top 4 defenseman and picks (albeit the players were expiring UFAs). Tkachuk is/was the best player in that deal hands down. I dont think you're going to get a player close to a matthews or marner in trade but you might get a slight downgrade as a replacement AND multiple pieces that build a better team.

Ultimately its been 4-5 seasons of this core and the team can't progress. Now that they have fewer prospects and picks, I think they're best chance has just passed. They will remain a contender true with those four, but I think they lack the supporting cast, cap flexibility, key prospects and picks to improve upon their chances this year. And while the cap WILL jump in 24-25 there still isnt enough to resign the big 4, keep the quality RFAs AND replace the Key aging defense hitting UFA/retirement.</div></div>

We will see how the Tkachuk trade turns out for CGY. Huberdeau was basically set up for failure in Sutter's system. Now say it's more of the same in CGY, then that should serve as a cautionary tale for the Leafs who could end up out of the playoffs and stay there, there are several Atlantic teams on the rise.

If Matthews, Marner, Nylander+Reilly are taking 40-43M, they will be able to field a competitive team still as the cap rises. Sure, the cap is going up for everyone but with this group, so far at least, they have guaranteed a playoff berth for the Leafs. If you look at it as cup/no cup there has been no progress, but if you look at each variation of the team, there has been progress in the last two years. That being said I wouldn't be surprised if they plateau for a year or two. So, yes they should entertain offers on their core but they shouldn't make a panic move.

The Stanley Cup is a tough trophy to win, the President Trophy winners went out in the 1st round, 3/4 of last years final four including the Champs and Finalists went out in the 1st round, and the 4th went out in the 2nd. The final 4 from this year compromise of a team that missed the playoffs, one that lost in the 1st round and two that lost in the second round.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 7:03 a.m.
Thread: Leafs if Cap Goes Up 3 Million
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>Cap wont go up 3mil

But I like some of the moves, but think the UFAs are underpaid and will go elsewhere for more.

Kampf will get 2mil or more, Patches wont get 1mil -probably more like 4mil, acciari will get an increase on his 22-23, and ROR and Severson could both go for a bit more. As far as 24-25 goes, you'd be hard pressed to keep Max P, Lafferty and LeBlanc, while you're paying Matthews, Liljegren, Robertson, Samsonov and expiring guys like Giordano, Acciari, Lemieux with replacing with QUALITY guys.

But I like the pairing ideas on defense and the signings of a lemieux/severson, but the team is still pretty top 6 focused</div></div>

Pacioretty I'm basing that number off the bonus rule where because of his age and his injury they can pay him in bonuses that would carry over into the next year. Thats my theory for that contract and cap number anyway.

I agree some guys could get paid better. It's always an educated guess what someone would be willing to take depending on the situation they're in. I agree this team doesn't prepare you much for the next season... but it also gives room for a major reset if it doesn't go well.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 7:00 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19 at 12:32 a.m.
Thread: Keeping the Core 4
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NickC1988</b></div><div>Edmonton has $36M in Nurse, McDavid, Ekholm and Draisaitl. COL is about to have $40M in Nichushkin, Rantanen, Mackinnon and Makar. NYR have $38M in Trouba, Zibanejad, Panarin, and Fox.

If the Leafs decide to move somebody in the core 4, they'll be significantly worse next season. At that point you might as well rebuild around Knies/Liljegren/Woll because you'll just be wasting the prime years of whoever isn't traded.</div></div>

Edmonton hasn't won anything. Neither have New York.

Colorado won before the MacKinnon extension. Toronto have just been failing longer with the same players. Surely you have yo switch it up. Theyve rolled over with no fight year after year. Regardless who the supporting cast is.
You're waisting their primes now.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 18 at 9:05 a.m.
Thread: Keller
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>Thanks.

Zadina intrigues me: hes just 23 yrs old, a low risk/high reward, hes got almost every element a top 6 guy needs-just not put together consistently, he plays RW or LW, and its a 2023 2nd around 40th and Zadina for a 2024 pick around 18th-25th.

Sure, maybe a bit could be added, but I like the idea of bemstrom/Zadina playing RW-LW and seeing them for a year if one of them could be a nice top 6 or top 9 passing pt producer on a team full of shooters. Gautheir on LW probably arrives the year after, with atkinson soon gone, so its a good chance to see them audition for that weak LW.</div></div>

Yeah I get it for sure but the 2024 draft is supposed to be stacked on D and we all know how bad we need to restructure our D so two 1st round picks means we hopefully will hit on 1 of them at least
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 17 at 10:21 a.m.
Thread: Not Enough
I love the idea of getting Severson. Regardless of where we are now, and only if he doesn't mind playing on a team that's mostly going to be bad for 2 years. But if we can get him in the fold, overpay a bit, it'll be well worth it. You can count on him every night in all situations. If he were to be paired up with Sanheim, I think he would do exactly what Niskanen did for Provy. He'd be a calming influence on the back end, is very responsible in his own end, and maybe can allow Sanheim to open up his game a bit and be more a part of the rush. If he was going to be paired with York, I think it's the same thing with him as well. And again, he wouldn't break the bank. Even give him a 6th year at this point. He's just as important for when we start contending as he is now to be able to mentor our younger members of the d corps.