I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2

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Tampa Bay Lightning
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Forum: Armchair-GMApr 27 at 4:11
Thread: this is what the team should do
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>No it isn't hard to follow. McDonagh's 6.75m contract...virtually totally NTC ends when he 36 years 10 months. Muzzin 5.6m ends when he 35 years 2 months.
I just wonder about "playing value"...which only time will tell. Muzzin was the best Leaf Dman last year. McDonagh has lots of help with Hedman, and the much beloved youngsters in Cernak and Sergachev.
Leafs hurt themselves by about 5m by overpaying three RFAs. Tampa hurt themselves with those NTCs, and maybe the Gourde and Johnsson deals are looking like not good value.
More than ever smart cap management is so important. IMO Boston have been great at their cap management over the past few years and now Colorado might be the next Cup contender with cap space to maneuver personnel.</div></div>

It's easy to call it "smart cap management", but it's honestly a lot of pure luck. The Pastrnak-Bergeron-Marchand line makes around $20m. The reason for that is because they agreed to long-term deals when they weren't playing as well as they are now. The GM deserves some credit, but most GMs would have sought that same type of thing. The odds of the players agreeing to that <em>and</em> you as a GM being right about them being future stars are low. The Avalanche with MacKinnon is perhaps a more extreme example. MacKinnon is way better than Matthews, yet Matthews makes nearly double his salary. Do you think if they had swapped GMs that would be the other way around? It's about getting lucky enough that your players' value doesn't spike until after they sign. Good drafting/signing is the other factor and that's where the GMs should get the most credit. The Lightning built a perennial contender by drafting (or signing undrafted) people like Cirelli, Gourde, Johnson, Point, Kucherov, Cernak, etc. The only high picks they really benefitted from were Stamkos, Hedman, and then Drouin who led to Sergachev. The Avalanche struck gold with Rantanen (though he's not on an ELC anymore), Girard, and Makar (a high draft pick but not as high as he should have been). The Bruins extended their window through DeBrusk and McAvoy. The GMs deserve some credit for good drafting and for having the foresight to try to guess which players would improve and sign them long-term early, but it's more luck than shrewd management, because you're always bound by what your players will sign; for Boston and Colorado, that's been favorable (in no small part due to lucky timing), whereas for teams like Toronto, it's been a nightmare (stars almost universally broke out while still on ELCs).
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 16 at 6:40
Thread: Lose Top 3 Challenge
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AFOX10900</b></div><div>Point def&gt;Stamkos
Cirelli&gt;Stamkos at everything other than shooting</div></div>

Cirelli is better at defense (but Stamkos is pretty good with defense himself), but nothing else. Cirelli has cold offensive streaks as often as he gets hot offensively, and even when he is hot, he’s not as good as Stamkos at any part of offense. Point is also better defensively and is a better playmaker who will end up on the highlight reel more than Stamkos, but Stamkos is a much better finisher. Between Point and Stamkos, it’s hard to definitively say whose more valuable as it depends on what attributes you value most, but Stamkos has a great case. And that’s before you consider his leadership and everything.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 27 at 1:35
Thread: maybe
Please can we stop making AGMs where the Lightning upgrade roster holes through UFAs <em>and</em> keep all of their RFAs by underpaying the one you happen to not really know enough about to truly estimate value? If the NJD trade happened, the Lightning would find someone to take Wood for a pick. We also wouldn't sign DeMelo to get an RHD upgrade. We're sticking with Rutta in all probability, if not Foote. That's almost $3m saved. Give Cirelli another $500k, Sergachev another $1.5m, and if necessary, give Cernak another $500k, and then make a call-up so we're at a 21-man roster (maybe you have to shave a few thousand off some of those contracts, then, but not enough to make or break a deal).

I'm not complaining about the Shattenkirk deal because that would be great if he would sign it, but I don't know about that. Likewise, maybe some NTCs will be waived, but definitely not for NJD and ANA. That's where this scenario really fails. Do we rely on Foote to replace Shattenkirk and solidify Rutta's roster spot if Shattenkirk won't sign a cheap deal? And where do we actually put the NTCs? Because we can't just toss them to a lottery team at will.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 18 at 3:12
Thread: Huge trade or Blockbuster with MTL
While they receive a good return for it, I highly doubt MTL is interested in having $2.75m of dead salary. As for the Lightning, after having already sacrificed a top prospect in the organization, I don't think we're interested in another one. Especially since re-signing Sergachev and Cernak won't be easy, and we don't want to put ourselves into a position where we have no choice but to re-sign them, since that gives them all the leverage. Foote is the main piece that grants us the depth to fill a defensive hole should one arise. Plus, Petry is 32, which means he's not going to be an asset for the future. Foote is a cheaper, long-term asset. Throwing in Fortier and a 1st makes this deal totally out of bounds. Sure, MTL takes Gourde (who very likely blocks this deal with his NTC), but it's not as though Gourde is so terrible that nobody is going to want him without a ransom. He's still fast, good defensively, and typically can contribute around 40 points per season, which is not bad. Maybe you don't want him at $5.1m, but it doesn't require an elite prospect, a 1st, and a mid-to-high prospect, to get someone to absorb the cap hit. I'm guessing the reason we're paying so much is to get Petry, but we're better off not doing that, because we don't have the cap to have Petry on our roster even with the retention and that wastes a long-term talent for a short-term asset.

The Coleman trade was one thing because it gives us a very cap controlled, talented player, and the prospect sacrificed likely had a couple of years before NHL readiness. That doesn't mean we're prepared to give up our best immediate prospect (and only legitimate defensive prospect) for a defenseman we can't afford and to facilitate a cap dump.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 10 at 5:45
Thread: Realistic Opening Night- No NTC waived
Unless something has been confirmed about the cap next year and I missed it, I would say that's a very low estimate. If the cap goes up by $1m more than you're projecting, and we don't do whatever that horrid Montreal trade is, then we have almost $5m to sign Sergachev, which we would almost definitely do. Cernak probably gets more than that, but honestly, just don't keep an extra defenseman on the roster and give that salary to Cernak and that's probably enough. The Cirelli deal also isn't that great for us. He brings defensive responsibility to the team beyond anything else, and that's what pays least in the League. Long-term, $4.75 is an underpayment, but for a bridge, it's probably a bit more than what the organization is hoping.

The difficult part of this is that the Lightning want to keep Killorn too given the season he's having. And I'm sure they want to get rid of Gourde, Johnson, or Palat (and probably mainly Gourde if he never scores again) instead. But if we have to move Killorn, we'd get a decent return and we'd more than likely be able to re-sign everyone else (other than Shattenkirk).
Forum: Site DiscussionJan 6 at 10:47
Thread: Armchair GMs are never published after the login prompt
I often spend a lot of time on custom rosters (although this one I guess I didn't really - it was a good one to lose), so this is the type of issue that would definitely frustrate me in the future and I would imagine other users would feel the same way.

Basically, somehow, I got logged out of CapFriendly on my computer. Without noticing, I went to create an armchair GM team. The team was created fine and I clicked the button to publish it, at which point I was prompted to login because you can't publish one of those without an associated account. I logged in, and was redirected to my profile page. The armchair GM I made was never published, is not accessible from my account with the other drafts that were made while signed in, and does not become accessible again when I sign out.

I can't find this glitch reported anywhere else. I'm not sure if this is the right place, but I don't know where else to mention this.

Edit: Upon trying to access the custom roster, both while logged in and while not logged in, an error comes up that the page may have been "deleted or removed". If any moderator sees this and is curious, the roster that no longer seems to exist is at <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1565011">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1565011</a>
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 29, 2019 at 4:52
Thread: What if Gourde stays and Killorn gets traded
Perhaps this opinion is unpopular, but I still like the Miller trade. Gourde fits into Tampa’s system well. Maybe he’s not as good as we would hope given the contract, but he would be even worse somewhere else. J.T. Miller is the opposite. He was comparable to Gourde here. The change in role and scenery worked wonders for him. If we had traded Gourde instead, we wouldn’t have gotten as good a return and we would still have a player whose production probably doesn’t explode and who instead stays around where Gourde is in that respect. Maybe he adds a little bit of size, defense, and a physical edge, but he probably wouldn’t be as good as Gourde at really being the missing piece on a line without elite talent (Maroon and Paquette). I’m not arguing that the overall value right now is comparable, but I think because of the way Miller would have been used in Tampa, we would gain very little from Miller over Gourde and it would be canceled out by the lesser return.

On the other hand, Killorn really seems to have found his game this year and losing him because of these clauses would suck. I’m probably Gourde’s biggest defender here but this scenario is unarguably a nightmare for us.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 24, 2019 at 3:58
Thread: Prepare to be even more screwed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BOLTLOVER1</b></div><div>Zero point Zero interest in Donato .. he epitome of a spoiled shrimp pre madonna .. father was NHL and coach whole life including Harvard .. at least ours arent spoiled brats ...lol

What needs to happen is a "bad contract swap" where Tampa gives the shrimps for larger skating forwards who now dont fit a teams new skating focus .. i.e DETROIT!!!! .. scour the 2nd and 3rd lines of teams with guys over 2 years left on contract with between 20 and 40 points .. this is our universe to rid of TJ Gourde and Palat (maybe) .. if Killorn goes REVOLT</div></div>

Killorn has been super impressive, but at this point I don’t see how he stays. Players won’t waive for Detroit. Maybe waiving them will result in them being claimed, but that’s risky especially if other GMs think like you (i.e: they’re way overpaid). That’s the only way out of the clause, and otherwise to keep Killorn we’d probably lose Cirelli, Sergachev, and Cernak. I would really hate to see that.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov 24, 2019 at 7:17
Thread: Killorn on pace for 65 pts this year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>Nah you're just delusional regarding Gourde, his stats indicate he isn't overpaid, and his play has been solid this year. Yes he's on the 4th line, big deal, the line has been the best on the team thus far and the hardest working. He has far more than an "ahl skillset." I'd question anyone saying Serg is a "3rd pairing weak d zone player" as someone who has no idea what they are talking about and not watching. But please, keep whining about Gourde, it gives me a good daily laugh. You get back to us when he waives that ntc and gets traded in one of these agms you post, lol.</div></div>

I agree that Gourde (who has been a point per game this month, so I have trouble considering him a fourth liner even though that line is traditionally considered a fourth line) is way underrated and honestly worth the money, though I think we probably could have gotten him for less at the time. But Palat has looked great this year, and so has Killorn. And so have Cirelli, Sergachev, Shattenkirk, and Maroon. If Vasilevskiy and our defense wake up we’ll be just as scary as last regular season. We can’t keep all of them given our cap situation, though.

Johnson has been the most disappointing. Joseph is close behind. I don’t know if I can see BriseBois managing to keep Shattenkirk or Maroon given how much their value has skyrocketed recently. But someone else does have to go. I would say Palat, Sergachev, Killorn, or Gourde. I can’t say I would be angry if it’s any of those four. It depends largely on this next playoffs (if we make it). I don’t know what about the NTCs, but all I’m going to say is you should not be shocked if we move Gourde for a terrible return.

Hopefully BriseBois figures out some magic though.