I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2

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Forum: Armchair-GMOct 11 at 12:17
Thread: Bro who want Johnson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BOLTLOVER1</b></div><div>COULD not disagree with your post more.. we won because of additions of Shattwrkirk Bogo Maroon Schenn Colemen and Goodrow .. NONE of which is on a long term conyrcat and most 1 year ... TJ and Gourde contrcats could cost up Cups going forward.. it that bad .. warned people of this ths last 2 years</div></div>

I agree that Coleman and Goodrow were integral to that Cup and everyone you mentioned was a contributor. And do we win without Johnson? Almost definitely. But do we win without Palat? Without Gourde (7g on the third line is pretty good, is it not)? Without Killorn? You can't always just plug in whoever at the deadline. I'd be in favor of signing guys like that to shorter contracts but the problem is they just won't sign it. The only reason I think this is so bad is because these guys have NTCs. That's the part that completely confuses me. NTCs are for your stars, not for your random depth players like Johnson. In theory it makes them sign at a discount but Johnson at $5m was literally never a discount. Take away the NTCs and we're just fine. The NTCs could absolutely cost us future Cups, but I don't fault Yzerman for signing Johnson and BriseBois for signing Gourde in the first place.
Forum: NHL SigningsOct 9 at 6:33
Thread: Anaheim Ducks signed Kevin Shattenkirk (3 Years / $3,900,000 AAV)
I guess if they have the room then it doesn’t matter, but this feels like an overpay. Shattenkirk has some pretty good offense but his defense is downright awful and he had several bad turnovers that resulted in crucial goals against in ECF and SCF games. $3.9m seems like a lot for a guy who really needs to be sheltered (Anaheim probably can’t do that as well as Tampa) and plays a one-way game that generates ~0.5 points per game. Plenty of guys get 40 points per season and are in this salary range despite being more solid defensively.

IneffectiveMath’s charts looked like he was exactly average offensively, slightly below average defensively, but shines on the PP. I would think a PP specialist would be worth less, but I guess Anaheim isn’t using the space anyway and he’ll help them if played correctly, it’s good. It’s also possible that being a Tampa fan skews my understanding of overpays since for us at this point it’s an overpay if anyone is making more than $1m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 1 at 8:25
Thread: If teams stopped being cowards and used the offer sheet
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kous</b></div><div>Not everyone is like that. Some want more money, Some want more playing time, Some want to play in a hockey market, Some want security of a long team deal, Some want to play closer to home. At the end of the day this is a business. and everyone needs are different

Tampa has not won anything and their time is closing. This team downhill from here</div></div>

Yeah, every player wants to leave a legitimate Cup contender to go... where, LAK? NJD? MTL? There's literally nobody who has the cap space and also a legitimate chance at making the playoffs. Stamkos is 30, Hedman is 29, Kucherov is 27, Vasilevskiy is 26, Point is 24, and there are plenty of good prospects to fill holes as they appear. All of those guys are locked down long-term (except Point who has two more years but there's just no way he leaves before UFA) and they shouldn't be anywhere close to regression. We've made the ECF more often than not over the past few years. Tampa can lose some talent to cap casualties and remain contenders and anyone who wants to win but abandons ship for a lottery team they think is "up and coming" because Tampa has "only" reached game 7 of the ECF is downright moronic. Obviously some guys want money and you can't fault them there but there's been no indication that Cirelli and Sergachev do and that's not in Tampa's culture. But that's the only scenario where they leave; they decide money is more important than winning. Literally nobody thinks it's all downhill from here for TBL.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr 27 at 4:11
Thread: this is what the team should do
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>No it isn't hard to follow. McDonagh's 6.75m contract...virtually totally NTC ends when he 36 years 10 months. Muzzin 5.6m ends when he 35 years 2 months.
I just wonder about "playing value"...which only time will tell. Muzzin was the best Leaf Dman last year. McDonagh has lots of help with Hedman, and the much beloved youngsters in Cernak and Sergachev.
Leafs hurt themselves by about 5m by overpaying three RFAs. Tampa hurt themselves with those NTCs, and maybe the Gourde and Johnsson deals are looking like not good value.
More than ever smart cap management is so important. IMO Boston have been great at their cap management over the past few years and now Colorado might be the next Cup contender with cap space to maneuver personnel.</div></div>

It's easy to call it "smart cap management", but it's honestly a lot of pure luck. The Pastrnak-Bergeron-Marchand line makes around $20m. The reason for that is because they agreed to long-term deals when they weren't playing as well as they are now. The GM deserves some credit, but most GMs would have sought that same type of thing. The odds of the players agreeing to that <em>and</em> you as a GM being right about them being future stars are low. The Avalanche with MacKinnon is perhaps a more extreme example. MacKinnon is way better than Matthews, yet Matthews makes nearly double his salary. Do you think if they had swapped GMs that would be the other way around? It's about getting lucky enough that your players' value doesn't spike until after they sign. Good drafting/signing is the other factor and that's where the GMs should get the most credit. The Lightning built a perennial contender by drafting (or signing undrafted) people like Cirelli, Gourde, Johnson, Point, Kucherov, Cernak, etc. The only high picks they really benefitted from were Stamkos, Hedman, and then Drouin who led to Sergachev. The Avalanche struck gold with Rantanen (though he's not on an ELC anymore), Girard, and Makar (a high draft pick but not as high as he should have been). The Bruins extended their window through DeBrusk and McAvoy. The GMs deserve some credit for good drafting and for having the foresight to try to guess which players would improve and sign them long-term early, but it's more luck than shrewd management, because you're always bound by what your players will sign; for Boston and Colorado, that's been favorable (in no small part due to lucky timing), whereas for teams like Toronto, it's been a nightmare (stars almost universally broke out while still on ELCs).
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 16 at 6:40
Thread: Lose Top 3 Challenge
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AFOX10900</b></div><div>Point def&gt;Stamkos
Cirelli&gt;Stamkos at everything other than shooting</div></div>

Cirelli is better at defense (but Stamkos is pretty good with defense himself), but nothing else. Cirelli has cold offensive streaks as often as he gets hot offensively, and even when he is hot, he’s not as good as Stamkos at any part of offense. Point is also better defensively and is a better playmaker who will end up on the highlight reel more than Stamkos, but Stamkos is a much better finisher. Between Point and Stamkos, it’s hard to definitively say whose more valuable as it depends on what attributes you value most, but Stamkos has a great case. And that’s before you consider his leadership and everything.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 27 at 1:35
Thread: maybe
Please can we stop making AGMs where the Lightning upgrade roster holes through UFAs <em>and</em> keep all of their RFAs by underpaying the one you happen to not really know enough about to truly estimate value? If the NJD trade happened, the Lightning would find someone to take Wood for a pick. We also wouldn't sign DeMelo to get an RHD upgrade. We're sticking with Rutta in all probability, if not Foote. That's almost $3m saved. Give Cirelli another $500k, Sergachev another $1.5m, and if necessary, give Cernak another $500k, and then make a call-up so we're at a 21-man roster (maybe you have to shave a few thousand off some of those contracts, then, but not enough to make or break a deal).

I'm not complaining about the Shattenkirk deal because that would be great if he would sign it, but I don't know about that. Likewise, maybe some NTCs will be waived, but definitely not for NJD and ANA. That's where this scenario really fails. Do we rely on Foote to replace Shattenkirk and solidify Rutta's roster spot if Shattenkirk won't sign a cheap deal? And where do we actually put the NTCs? Because we can't just toss them to a lottery team at will.