I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2

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Forum: Armchair-GMSep 1 at 8:25
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kous</b></div><div>Not everyone is like that. Some want more money, Some want more playing time, Some want to play in a hockey market, Some want security of a long team deal, Some want to play closer to home. At the end of the day this is a business. and everyone needs are different

Tampa has not won anything and their time is closing. This team downhill from here</div></div>

Yeah, every player wants to leave a legitimate Cup contender to go... where, LAK? NJD? MTL? There's literally nobody who has the cap space and also a legitimate chance at making the playoffs. Stamkos is 30, Hedman is 29, Kucherov is 27, Vasilevskiy is 26, Point is 24, and there are plenty of good prospects to fill holes as they appear. All of those guys are locked down long-term (except Point who has two more years but there's just no way he leaves before UFA) and they shouldn't be anywhere close to regression. We've made the ECF more often than not over the past few years. Tampa can lose some talent to cap casualties and remain contenders and anyone who wants to win but abandons ship for a lottery team they think is "up and coming" because Tampa has "only" reached game 7 of the ECF is downright moronic. Obviously some guys want money and you can't fault them there but there's been no indication that Cirelli and Sergachev do and that's not in Tampa's culture. But that's the only scenario where they leave; they decide money is more important than winning. Literally nobody thinks it's all downhill from here for TBL.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr 27 at 4:11
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>No it isn't hard to follow. McDonagh's 6.75m contract...virtually totally NTC ends when he 36 years 10 months. Muzzin 5.6m ends when he 35 years 2 months.
I just wonder about "playing value"...which only time will tell. Muzzin was the best Leaf Dman last year. McDonagh has lots of help with Hedman, and the much beloved youngsters in Cernak and Sergachev.
Leafs hurt themselves by about 5m by overpaying three RFAs. Tampa hurt themselves with those NTCs, and maybe the Gourde and Johnsson deals are looking like not good value.
More than ever smart cap management is so important. IMO Boston have been great at their cap management over the past few years and now Colorado might be the next Cup contender with cap space to maneuver personnel.</div></div>

It's easy to call it "smart cap management", but it's honestly a lot of pure luck. The Pastrnak-Bergeron-Marchand line makes around $20m. The reason for that is because they agreed to long-term deals when they weren't playing as well as they are now. The GM deserves some credit, but most GMs would have sought that same type of thing. The odds of the players agreeing to that <em>and</em> you as a GM being right about them being future stars are low. The Avalanche with MacKinnon is perhaps a more extreme example. MacKinnon is way better than Matthews, yet Matthews makes nearly double his salary. Do you think if they had swapped GMs that would be the other way around? It's about getting lucky enough that your players' value doesn't spike until after they sign. Good drafting/signing is the other factor and that's where the GMs should get the most credit. The Lightning built a perennial contender by drafting (or signing undrafted) people like Cirelli, Gourde, Johnson, Point, Kucherov, Cernak, etc. The only high picks they really benefitted from were Stamkos, Hedman, and then Drouin who led to Sergachev. The Avalanche struck gold with Rantanen (though he's not on an ELC anymore), Girard, and Makar (a high draft pick but not as high as he should have been). The Bruins extended their window through DeBrusk and McAvoy. The GMs deserve some credit for good drafting and for having the foresight to try to guess which players would improve and sign them long-term early, but it's more luck than shrewd management, because you're always bound by what your players will sign; for Boston and Colorado, that's been favorable (in no small part due to lucky timing), whereas for teams like Toronto, it's been a nightmare (stars almost universally broke out while still on ELCs).
Forum: Armchair-GMMar 16 at 6:40
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 27 at 1:35
Thread: maybe
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 18 at 3:12
While they receive a good return for it, I highly doubt MTL is interested in having $2.75m of dead salary. As for the Lightning, after having already sacrificed a top prospect in the organization, I don't think we're interested in another one. Especially since re-signing Sergachev and Cernak won't be easy, and we don't want to put ourselves into a position where we have no choice but to re-sign them, since that gives them all the leverage. Foote is the main piece that grants us the depth to fill a defensive hole should one arise. Plus, Petry is 32, which means he's not going to be an asset for the future. Foote is a cheaper, long-term asset. Throwing in Fortier and a 1st makes this deal totally out of bounds. Sure, MTL takes Gourde (who very likely blocks this deal with his NTC), but it's not as though Gourde is so terrible that nobody is going to want him without a ransom. He's still fast, good defensively, and typically can contribute around 40 points per season, which is not bad. Maybe you don't want him at $5.1m, but it doesn't require an elite prospect, a 1st, and a mid-to-high prospect, to get someone to absorb the cap hit. I'm guessing the reason we're paying so much is to get Petry, but we're better off not doing that, because we don't have the cap to have Petry on our roster even with the retention and that wastes a long-term talent for a short-term asset.

The Coleman trade was one thing because it gives us a very cap controlled, talented player, and the prospect sacrificed likely had a couple of years before NHL readiness. That doesn't mean we're prepared to give up our best immediate prospect (and only legitimate defensive prospect) for a defenseman we can't afford and to facilitate a cap dump.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 10 at 5:45
Forum: Site DiscussionJan 6 at 10:47
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 29, 2019 at 4:52
Forum: Armchair-GMDec 24, 2019 at 3:58
Forum: Armchair-GMNov 24, 2019 at 7:17
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JTBF81</b></div><div>Nah you're just delusional regarding Gourde, his stats indicate he isn't overpaid, and his play has been solid this year. Yes he's on the 4th line, big deal, the line has been the best on the team thus far and the hardest working. He has far more than an "ahl skillset." I'd question anyone saying Serg is a "3rd pairing weak d zone player" as someone who has no idea what they are talking about and not watching. But please, keep whining about Gourde, it gives me a good daily laugh. You get back to us when he waives that ntc and gets traded in one of these agms you post, lol.</div></div>

I agree that Gourde (who has been a point per game this month, so I have trouble considering him a fourth liner even though that line is traditionally considered a fourth line) is way underrated and honestly worth the money, though I think we probably could have gotten him for less at the time. But Palat has looked great this year, and so has Killorn. And so have Cirelli, Sergachev, Shattenkirk, and Maroon. If Vasilevskiy and our defense wake up we’ll be just as scary as last regular season. We can’t keep all of them given our cap situation, though.

Johnson has been the most disappointing. Joseph is close behind. I don’t know if I can see BriseBois managing to keep Shattenkirk or Maroon given how much their value has skyrocketed recently. But someone else does have to go. I would say Palat, Sergachev, Killorn, or Gourde. I can’t say I would be angry if it’s any of those four. It depends largely on this next playoffs (if we make it). I don’t know what about the NTCs, but all I’m going to say is you should not be shocked if we move Gourde for a terrible return.

Hopefully BriseBois figures out some magic though.