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I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2

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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 24, 2019 at 9:11 a.m.
Thread: Lines I wouldnt mind seeing when Point returns
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>Verhaeghe hasn’t been playing center at all for the past couple of years, as far as I know (I could be wrong, though). I guess Johnson could take that spot instead, though, as he sort of tends to improve at center anyway and the only reason he doesn’t usually is that we never had a spot. Stamkos on wing opens one. The other thing is that Joseph in the top-six is a little bit bold. He does play well with Cirelli, so it could work out.

Not that this is a valid consideration, though, but if we do use this lineup, we’re inflating the values of all of our upcoming RFAs and diminishing the trade value of our depth players on contracts we can’t afford anymore. Obviously we’re trying to be the best that we can be, but maybe it’s something to be cautious about.</div></div>

I agree until Point returns let the seasoned forwards that are paid well play top six. If they are successful then they add value to the team or for trade purpose. Put Gourde third line center and see if he can produce, again can only add value.

Oct lines;
Palat- Tyler- Kuch: triplets are back
Killorn-Cirelli- Stammer: Killorn and Cirelli have chemistry and Cirelli gets a chance as second line center.
Volkov-Gourde- Joseph
Verghaeghe-Paquette- Maroon

If Palat or Killorn faulters then we have options.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 22, 2019 at 10:46 p.m.
Thread: Tyler Johnson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>any team on TB with a NTC probably took less to play there for the tax break. And hence they aren't letting the team trade them. You are talking about real money out their pocket.
It's a double edge sword when you play that game. You use it to your advantage and ask people to take less, so don't even bother asking for them to waive it in order to pay someone else.
Only way they move cap is on a player with no clauses.</div></div>

There's been a lot of literature that shows the state tax difference between Tampa and Toronto (for example) is roughly $15k per $1M. It matters a lot less for any player making over $2M, and it's getting incredibly obnoxious when it's presented as substantial enough evidence by an armchair GM for a player to not waive a NMC/NTC or for a team to free up cap space. Names like Johnson, Killorn, or Palat make enough money that fighting over the sub-100k they'd lose out on by not playing in Tampa is not why they wouldn't waive their NTC. The want to play for another team and uproot their family takes supreme precedence in regards to that decision.

All Tampa would have to do today is assign Rutta to the minors and waive Schenn (assuming Witkowski stays as he can play wing or defence) and they can nearly afford the Marner deal. They're out by a couple hundred thousand dollars. They aren't in a dire situation right now.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2019 at 6:38 p.m.
Thread: Tampa Cap space over 10M
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>We don’t have $10m, though, because we can’t afford to go over on performance bonuses. That pushes us right back to around $8.5m. Not to mention, next year, we do have to re-sign Cirelli, Sergachev, Cernak, and Joseph and Vasilevskiy’s raise starts. In this inflated market, that’s hard. I don’t like this prospect of a holdout, but BriseBois undoubtedly has a reason for doing it.



Is Domingue on waivers? If he is and nobody’s claiming him while he’s free, why would they trade for him and give up an asset? And if nobody is giving up an asset and he clears, we should keep him.</div></div>

He is on waivers and the reason why someone would trade for him is now they don’t have to carry him on their nhl roster if the plan is to have him as your teams 3rd goalie as he is able to sent to the ahl. Claim him he has to be on your nhl roster for 30 days before you can try to send him down again

This happens all the time.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 10, 2019 at 8:57 p.m.
Thread: Jesse to TB
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>Are there rumors that the Lightning are interested in Puljujarvi? I’m just curious because I’ve seen a lot of Armchair-GMs about it.

I don’t know how much sense this trade makes. Puljujarvi seems to have a better trajectory than Raddysh, while Raddysh gives the Lightning cost control (and he does play a physical style that would help the Lightning if he could manage it on an NHL level, but I don’t know enough about Puljujarvi to say that he doesn’t too). Especially if Puljujarvi can be somewhat physical, the Lightning probably do this trade, but I would be surprised if the Oilers did it.</div></div>

Bob Stauffer (who usually subtly hints at things and is right as he is very very in the loop with Oilers management) mentioned the lightening and Hurricanes as potential suitors for Puljujärvi.

The hurricanes make sense, they’ve coveted him to play with Aho for a while, as they did internationally for Finland a lot, as well as with their club team in Karpat before they came over.

I made this with TB to see what could fit since if Stauffer is saying it there is usually something going on. Raddysh is a fit because he used to play with McDavid in Erie and is probably very close to NHL ready after a good season in the AHL. Puljujärvi has dropped off to the point where I’m hoping either for a prospect of similar pedigree that is having similar struggles (I had thoughts of Alex Nylander up till yesterday) or a prospect of lesser pedigree that is developing above projections (like Raddysh).
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 22, 2019 at 11:12 p.m.
Thread: Point bridge idea
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>By that same logic, couldn't we say that Point should prove that he wasn't just propped up by Kucherov? Kucherov had a career year and Point without Kucherov was a 60 point #2C (though he also had shutdown capabilities, and I suppose it's sort of rare to find a shutdown center who can also score a ton, but $6m seemed reasonable prior to this year). Kucherov had similar stats his first couple of years (60+ points as a second line winger), and got less than $5m. Point gets a bonus for being a center, having shutdown capabilities, and signing under a higher cap, but still, a $6m bridge would be within reason considering what our Lightning players have signed.

Point does still have things to prove. First of all, was his poor playoff performance this year (after an outstanding performance last year) a fluke? Compared to players like Cirelli, Cernak, Coburn, Miller, etc., Point was quite bad in the playoffs, and I don't think it's fair to dismiss that just because other star players were too. If Point's easy enough for a wildcard team to shut down, I have trouble sacrificing the future to pay him a massive contract. And second of all, can he maintain his production this season? What happens if we move him from the Kucherov line? Can he still play the shutdown role he so effectively played before he was paired with Kucherov? You may say that Point, given what he's already proven, has enough leverage that the organization can't push him into taking a bridge to further prove himself, but if he wants to be paid like a superstar, maintaining the same production he gave this year with or without Kucherov, perfecting his shutdown role, and exhibiting a dominant playoff performance will warrant a much higher salary than what he could get now.</div></div>

Most of Point's issues you outlined here he has done before or his progression hasn't just shot up after being a small increase.
To augment the Kuch holding up point bit, JT has a history of getting wingers PAID, Kuch does not. Point also drives his line, which Marner does not. Point has had insane playoff performances, whereas Marner has had a good one, a decent one and a BAD one. Just look at some of these metrics: Here is Marner vs Point, and JT vs Kuch. All are on the same scale and so are directly comparable. JT drove the Marner line hard, whereas Point and Kuch fed off eachother
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9tw03gWwAAsXxK.png" alt="D9tw03gWwAAsXxK.png">
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9tw03fWkAApN1N.png" alt="D9tw03fWkAApN1N.png">
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 26, 2018 at 3:14 a.m.
Thread: Leafs Roster Projection as of Today
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>1) No idea. I did not touch anything here that would affect that.
2) Thanks for the suggestion.

Question: Rosen or Borgman? History says Borg, but Rosen has looked good recently (like really recently). I've thought Borg was fine, but last game was crap, haven't noticed Rosen too much, except for his mistakes.</div></div>

My take on it

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/863115">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/863115</a>

Since he has been signed i claim, Ennis still has it....tho anyone can if put next to xxxx-Matthews-Nylander, or xxxx-Tavares-Marner, even Hyman can go from 28 to 40

From tactical point of view ( considering next year 12 players are ending their contracts ) i would follow what Babcock did in camp and i predicted in in my other thread ( ofc after Nylander is signed ):

Ennis back to his LW position with Tavares and Marner, he racks 40+ and at TDL trying to get 2nd rounder for him, cause he cant be signed next year...call it rental or not....dont let ppl just walk like JVR and Bozak.
All-knowing TML fan is trying to prove me wrong about this one, cause we are "buyers" all at the sudden, even with D thats somewhere in the League average quality and uncertain contract weights coming next year ( also Kadri will be resigned for lifetime if you ask him )
ppl keep forgeting that even if Polak, Komarov and Martin "sucked", they still have some NHL yardage behind them and proly dont fold under the pressure which we cant say about youngsters yet ( seen many players thru all those years not being able to perform in TML cause of "our town hockey importance" pressure )

3rd Line : signed players of Hyman-Kadri-Brown
4th Line : Johnsson-Lindholm-Kapanen...which would lower the effectivness of all three cause they need to be signed end of season and 20 points each would make them available for the Hyman / Brown type of contract

So after Ennis traded, all LWs are moving one line up, so even Leivo would have his shot in first round of playoffs, where inexpirienced D will fall to BOS again with 28 GA

We arent cup contenders yet, regardless what ppl think and say, Offence is set, yes, but if "Big 3" will push for just 500K more each, that we are giving them here in our whishfull thinking, many more will turn out as rentals.....#Leivo, Carrick, Johnsson, Kapanen, Ennis, Gardiner, Lindholm, Ozhiganov, Rosen, Borgman ( yes, RFAs but going to SHL or KHL if not payed properly ) and rest will just walk away same as Bozak and JVR without bring you anything...and here goes your "buyer" status

so, Cup contenders aka buyers my a*s....cause of next years Cap crunch, TML should ( are ) be planning the D upgrading after the supposedlly Expansion Draft in 2020/2021...with Cap rise and some contracts off their back ( sry Marleau, i like you a lot ). Many good shutdown Ds will be missed till then cause being on verge of their contracts in next 2 years tho and TML wont be able to go after them.....or maybe in those two years some of youngster D's will really pan out ready....so first Stanley hunt in 2021 is my guess

heres a good take on the "D problem" from some other guy
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>But most teams have a couple of inexperienced forwards with more experienced players who can help guide them as they develop their talents. The Leafs, on the other hand, will have no room to re-sign Gardiner, Hainsey, and have already lost Polak. They are relying on people like Liljegren, Rosen, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to play without another linemate whose done this before. I'm not saying it can't be done, but to suggest that it's not a risk is purely bias. None of those people have ever held a permanent role in the NHL, and talent in the AHL (or any other league) does not <em>always</em> translate to talent in the NHL, with much more pressure and much better opponents. Look at what happened wit Shipachyov, a KHL star - he scored one goal, but ended up going back to Russia after refusing to play in the minor league because the Golden Knights didn't think he was good enough to even be on their roster. I honestly think the Leafs would be better off if they sacrifice some of their offensive talent for a couple of defensemen who they know can defend, just in case some of the prospects don't pan out or need guidance (especially if you plan on pairing Reily and Zaitsev).

I would also be concerned about how offense-oriented some of those prospects are. The Lightning have been criticized for picking Foote over Liljegren, but the Lightning and the Leafs have been similar recently in terms of being an offensive powerhouse with defensive concerns. Foote is a defensive-defenseman, whereas Liljegren is mostly an offensive talent. Liljegren is probably "better" than Foote, but Foote would more than likely fit better on any team. And I think the Leafs' prospects is more skewed towards the Liljegren type than the Foote type - talented, but not <em>defensively</em> talented. And unfortunately, that's the same category Reily falls into. The Leafs are asking these people to really build up their defensive game and step a completely new role with very little help (as in nobody to cover for their mistakes, otherwise they'll hardly be Cup contenders and will more than likely need to move one of their best forwards to do something about it. I don't think any team has ever won the Cup without a single experienced defenseman.</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 6, 2018 at 11:46 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 4, 2018 at 8:28 a.m.
Thread: Masin and Volkov make the roster; is this realistic?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>The 2nd round pick from Montreal wasn't supposed to be in the trade, but I have no idea what Montreal is looking for or how much they can get at this point (since they've already handcuffed themselves by announcing that they won't re-sign Pacioretty). Pacioretty was the major trade, so I don't really know what to offer. Do they need a roster player, or do they want prospects to rebuild with? The Lightning don't want to break up chemistry, but they'd be willing to offer some fairly good prospects (probably better than the ones I put in here, since I was specifically trying to get in a center and LW).

I'm not sure if the Leafs are a good team for the Coburn contract, but I'm sure there's <em>someone</em> in the League who would take a serviceable veteran defenseman for one season at almost no cost.

As for the Edmonton trade, it's probably stupid, but it would definitely be nice if we could get something of value for the remainder of our expendable assets. Dotchin and Erne are still good prospects.</div></div>

PProspects + Picks for Pacioretty.. Try like 1st + Cal Foote for example. That is the price anyways... we can all predict what they will actually get, but that is the asking price
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 8, 2018 at 12:20 p.m.
Thread: Im tired of the No Top Prospects for soon to be UFA Stars
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>You're under the salary floor, but there's a reason you can't get top prospects when your star is a UFA soon.

***

***

GMs know . . . that a soon-to-be UFA is less valuable, so they will offer less. Of course, the Senators are demanding top prospects, but if they just hang up the phone and wait, Dorion will <em>have</em> to back down, or he'll end up with nothing. it's even worse with the Karlsson case, since it's quite apparent that he won't re-sign in Ottawa. And, when you have an owner like Melnyk who insists that one of the worst contracts in the League be included in the trade, that makes things harder because no Cup contender has the cap space for that. Some assets have to go to a third team to make them take on that contract, and that comes directly from the Senators' return.

So no, you're not going to get Point, Sergachev, Cirelli, Glass, Suzuki, or Heiskanen. You'd be lucky to get Honka, Foote, or Brannstrom. Heiskanen is an overpayment considering the risk (the Stars risk losing him for free in free agency, and they lose a top prospect when they maybe could have signed him in free agency without it). And for the Lightning and Vegas, yes, they have good prospects, but these are instrumental to their future success (and sometimes, for players like Point, for their current success as well). There's simply no way around it - you don't get top prospects for a soon-to-be UFA who everyone knows won't re-sign with you.</div></div>

This is the best comment I've ever seen posted on CapFriendly AGM. I wish I could give YOU five stars. It should be mandatory reading for every dreamer or idiot who thinks Ottawa should get the equivalent of three or four first-round draft picks for Erik Karlsson. (I keep getting outraged comments and one star for postings in which I suggest that Ottawa will get only one.)
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 24, 2018 at 8:02 p.m.
Thread: BEFORE Trading for Karlsson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>WHY would they let McDonagh and Stralman walk and re-sign Coburn? Girardi's a lot more likely to stay than Coburn, as well, and he wouldn't cost that much at his age and production (but is still better than Coburn). Dotchin's also not worth any more than his current contract; he maybe gets $1m. Same with Paquette (either he keeps his current contract, or he walks and it doesn't even matter). The only way Coburn stays is if Foote, Cernak, Masin, Thomas, Dotchin, and Koekkoek <em>all</em> turn out to be busts and no team is willing to make a reasonable trade. Actually, McDonagh's already been extended, so letting him walk isn't even an option. Kucherov's also already been extended for $9.5m.

Players like Callahan and Coburn don't have a full NTC, and can block trades only to teams on his 16 team list, so they can be traded. I'd say there are more than 16 teams with enough space to take Coburn or Callahan with a draft sweetener, and there are many teams that could benefit from these players for the short remainder of their contracts. Also, though J.T. Miller had an impressive streak on a line with Stamkos and Kucherov, for the right return, he could be traded (unlike Kucherov or Vasilevskiy, who are obviously untouchable).

Callahan may not have NYR on his no-trade list, as he's from Rochester and used to play for NYR (even if he'd prefer Tampa, if New York isn't on his list, he can't block it). There's also a chance that, when Seattle comes, Tyler Johnson waives his NTC to go in the expansion draft, since he's from Spokane (for free, that would be a bad loss for the Lightning, but considering the upcoming expansion draft, they're going to have to lose <em>somebody</em> good).

The Lightning can get Karlsson and afford him at $6.5m. The problem is extending Point, Karlsson, and Gourde at the same time, especially as McDonagh and Kucherov's cap hits both go up. Karlsson would have to take a discount (less than $10m for sure), and Point would have to accept a cheap bridge deal (and Yzerman would then have to clear out cap in a few years to pay him a ton of money). I ran through it at <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/157537">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/157537</a> (with Karlsson). They would have to find a third team willing to take Bobby Ryan in exchange for picks/prospects, which would have to be a team not included on Ryan's 10 team no-trade list. But, if the Senators attach Ryan to a Karlsson deal, the return going to Ottawa drops significantly, especially considering the Senators have their hands tied due to Karlsson confirming that he does not intend to re-sign with the Senators under Melnyk.

I ran through one potential stimulation for the Lightning to manage Karlsosn at <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/157537">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/157537</a> . All of those things have to work exactly right, otherwise they end up losing an important asset. If you take away Karlsson's cap hit, you have room to keep a few of the players who were traded (J.T. Miller would be particularly good to keep if possible), and can maintain more prospect depth (so within the next couple of years, they're still deep at forward).

As Yzerman said, they can take Karlsson, but it will require some difficult cap manipulation. But it is possible.

Also, you're overpaying Chiasson.</div></div>

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I Know Nothing About Hockey my *%%. That was great input. Thanks! As for Chiasson, I routinely overpay UFA guys who have breakout years. I'm always wrong, too (Demelo, Grant, Nosek . . .)
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 22, 2018 at 6:12 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 13, 2018 at 12:27 a.m.
Thread: TB with EK - 2019-2020 SEASON
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>NTCs</div></div>

Yes, a big part of this roster involves guys waiving their NTC's, with Killorn having a full NTC until 2020-2021, Callahan submitting a 16 team trade list (likely to be contenders, who probably don;t have the space to sign him), and Johnson with the full NTC. What I have above is likely a perfect world scenario (minus the cap, which like you said in one of the posts, will probably go past 80M). Without these moves above (or something similar), TB doesn't have a lot of options for moving contracts (with Palat having a full NTC until 2020-2021 (a year too late for an ideal situation), and JT Miller just signing as you said. However, all of this is to clear cap space for EK, which as we determined is not as ideal as it seems, so realistically, only one of these contracts needs to go, and Callahan is likely to be gone soon.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 12, 2018 at 10:13 p.m.
Thread: TBL Game Plan for 19-20 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>If you reduce the term for Point by a couple of years, you can probably get him on around a $5,000,000 deal.</div></div>

I think a 3 year deal would definitely be cheaper, however they just signed JT Miller to 5.25, and I don't see Point getting less than that, so maybe a 3 x 5.25 deal?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>That’s also more than I would expect for Stralman at his age and production.</div></div>

Fair point, I wasn't sure on him. I did 4.75 just to give him a bit of a raise, but possibly something lower. They do have Cal Foote coming up, with Dotchin projected to be top four, so he is slowly on his way out the door I imagine.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div> You could maybe reduce Koekkoek by a tiny bit, though it depends on how he does this year.</div></div>

I wasn't sure what to give Koekkoek, so I very well could have overpayed him, but like you said, it depends on his year (same goes for Point extension on that matter).

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div> I also might be under-estimating these just because I’m a Lightning fan and am internally biased to believe that players will take discounts to stay.</div></div>

To your point, almost all of TB's core has taken less money to play there, especially Hedman. It is a great place to play and live (been there a couple of times), and for a Southern city, they have a great, supporting fanbase.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>If anyone could do that without losing too much, it would be Yzerman, but Karlsson’s expensive, both to acquire and to keep. Sure, he’s an elite player, but at some point you’re losing more than you’re really getting. If they lose Sergachev and Foote, and can’t re-sign Point and/or Vasilevskiy, those are huge losses that aren’t easy to recover from, especially since they’d lose many picks as well. I would much prefer to see the Lightning without Karlsson than without Sergachev, Point, and top prospects.</div></div>

I absolutely agree. EK is a great defenseman, but i feel that TB is an overall better team without him, and are in better shape for the near future as well (with extensions for Sergachev, Point, Gourde, Vasilevsky, etc.). I actually just made a post for TB getting EK and made a mock roster for the 18-19 and 19-20 season, check it out if you can, I am interested to know what you think about it.