I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2

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Forum: Armchair-GMSep 24, 2019 at 9:11
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 22, 2019 at 10:46
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 20, 2019 at 6:38
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 10, 2019 at 8:57
Thread: Jesse to TB
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>Are there rumors that the Lightning are interested in Puljujarvi? I’m just curious because I’ve seen a lot of Armchair-GMs about it.

I don’t know how much sense this trade makes. Puljujarvi seems to have a better trajectory than Raddysh, while Raddysh gives the Lightning cost control (and he does play a physical style that would help the Lightning if he could manage it on an NHL level, but I don’t know enough about Puljujarvi to say that he doesn’t too). Especially if Puljujarvi can be somewhat physical, the Lightning probably do this trade, but I would be surprised if the Oilers did it.</div></div>

Bob Stauffer (who usually subtly hints at things and is right as he is very very in the loop with Oilers management) mentioned the lightening and Hurricanes as potential suitors for Puljujärvi.

The hurricanes make sense, they’ve coveted him to play with Aho for a while, as they did internationally for Finland a lot, as well as with their club team in Karpat before they came over.

I made this with TB to see what could fit since if Stauffer is saying it there is usually something going on. Raddysh is a fit because he used to play with McDavid in Erie and is probably very close to NHL ready after a good season in the AHL. Puljujärvi has dropped off to the point where I’m hoping either for a prospect of similar pedigree that is having similar struggles (I had thoughts of Alex Nylander up till yesterday) or a prospect of lesser pedigree that is developing above projections (like Raddysh).
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 22, 2019 at 11:12
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>By that same logic, couldn't we say that Point should prove that he wasn't just propped up by Kucherov? Kucherov had a career year and Point without Kucherov was a 60 point #2C (though he also had shutdown capabilities, and I suppose it's sort of rare to find a shutdown center who can also score a ton, but $6m seemed reasonable prior to this year). Kucherov had similar stats his first couple of years (60+ points as a second line winger), and got less than $5m. Point gets a bonus for being a center, having shutdown capabilities, and signing under a higher cap, but still, a $6m bridge would be within reason considering what our Lightning players have signed.

Point does still have things to prove. First of all, was his poor playoff performance this year (after an outstanding performance last year) a fluke? Compared to players like Cirelli, Cernak, Coburn, Miller, etc., Point was quite bad in the playoffs, and I don't think it's fair to dismiss that just because other star players were too. If Point's easy enough for a wildcard team to shut down, I have trouble sacrificing the future to pay him a massive contract. And second of all, can he maintain his production this season? What happens if we move him from the Kucherov line? Can he still play the shutdown role he so effectively played before he was paired with Kucherov? You may say that Point, given what he's already proven, has enough leverage that the organization can't push him into taking a bridge to further prove himself, but if he wants to be paid like a superstar, maintaining the same production he gave this year with or without Kucherov, perfecting his shutdown role, and exhibiting a dominant playoff performance will warrant a much higher salary than what he could get now.</div></div>

Most of Point's issues you outlined here he has done before or his progression hasn't just shot up after being a small increase.
To augment the Kuch holding up point bit, JT has a history of getting wingers PAID, Kuch does not. Point also drives his line, which Marner does not. Point has had insane playoff performances, whereas Marner has had a good one, a decent one and a BAD one. Just look at some of these metrics: Here is Marner vs Point, and JT vs Kuch. All are on the same scale and so are directly comparable. JT drove the Marner line hard, whereas Point and Kuch fed off eachother
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9tw03gWwAAsXxK.png" alt="D9tw03gWwAAsXxK.png">
<img class="for_img" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D9tw03fWkAApN1N.png" alt="D9tw03fWkAApN1N.png">
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 26, 2018 at 3:14
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>1) No idea. I did not touch anything here that would affect that.
2) Thanks for the suggestion.

Question: Rosen or Borgman? History says Borg, but Rosen has looked good recently (like really recently). I've thought Borg was fine, but last game was crap, haven't noticed Rosen too much, except for his mistakes.</div></div>

My take on it

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/863115">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/863115</a>

Since he has been signed i claim, Ennis still has it....tho anyone can if put next to xxxx-Matthews-Nylander, or xxxx-Tavares-Marner, even Hyman can go from 28 to 40

From tactical point of view ( considering next year 12 players are ending their contracts ) i would follow what Babcock did in camp and i predicted in in my other thread ( ofc after Nylander is signed ):

Ennis back to his LW position with Tavares and Marner, he racks 40+ and at TDL trying to get 2nd rounder for him, cause he cant be signed next year...call it rental or not....dont let ppl just walk like JVR and Bozak.
All-knowing TML fan is trying to prove me wrong about this one, cause we are "buyers" all at the sudden, even with D thats somewhere in the League average quality and uncertain contract weights coming next year ( also Kadri will be resigned for lifetime if you ask him )
ppl keep forgeting that even if Polak, Komarov and Martin "sucked", they still have some NHL yardage behind them and proly dont fold under the pressure which we cant say about youngsters yet ( seen many players thru all those years not being able to perform in TML cause of "our town hockey importance" pressure )

3rd Line : signed players of Hyman-Kadri-Brown
4th Line : Johnsson-Lindholm-Kapanen...which would lower the effectivness of all three cause they need to be signed end of season and 20 points each would make them available for the Hyman / Brown type of contract

So after Ennis traded, all LWs are moving one line up, so even Leivo would have his shot in first round of playoffs, where inexpirienced D will fall to BOS again with 28 GA

We arent cup contenders yet, regardless what ppl think and say, Offence is set, yes, but if "Big 3" will push for just 500K more each, that we are giving them here in our whishfull thinking, many more will turn out as rentals.....#Leivo, Carrick, Johnsson, Kapanen, Ennis, Gardiner, Lindholm, Ozhiganov, Rosen, Borgman ( yes, RFAs but going to SHL or KHL if not payed properly ) and rest will just walk away same as Bozak and JVR without bring you anything...and here goes your "buyer" status

so, Cup contenders aka buyers my a*s....cause of next years Cap crunch, TML should ( are ) be planning the D upgrading after the supposedlly Expansion Draft in 2020/2021...with Cap rise and some contracts off their back ( sry Marleau, i like you a lot ). Many good shutdown Ds will be missed till then cause being on verge of their contracts in next 2 years tho and TML wont be able to go after them.....or maybe in those two years some of youngster D's will really pan out ready....so first Stanley hunt in 2021 is my guess

heres a good take on the "D problem" from some other guy
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>But most teams have a couple of inexperienced forwards with more experienced players who can help guide them as they develop their talents. The Leafs, on the other hand, will have no room to re-sign Gardiner, Hainsey, and have already lost Polak. They are relying on people like Liljegren, Rosen, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to play without another linemate whose done this before. I'm not saying it can't be done, but to suggest that it's not a risk is purely bias. None of those people have ever held a permanent role in the NHL, and talent in the AHL (or any other league) does not <em>always</em> translate to talent in the NHL, with much more pressure and much better opponents. Look at what happened wit Shipachyov, a KHL star - he scored one goal, but ended up going back to Russia after refusing to play in the minor league because the Golden Knights didn't think he was good enough to even be on their roster. I honestly think the Leafs would be better off if they sacrifice some of their offensive talent for a couple of defensemen who they know can defend, just in case some of the prospects don't pan out or need guidance (especially if you plan on pairing Reily and Zaitsev).

I would also be concerned about how offense-oriented some of those prospects are. The Lightning have been criticized for picking Foote over Liljegren, but the Lightning and the Leafs have been similar recently in terms of being an offensive powerhouse with defensive concerns. Foote is a defensive-defenseman, whereas Liljegren is mostly an offensive talent. Liljegren is probably "better" than Foote, but Foote would more than likely fit better on any team. And I think the Leafs' prospects is more skewed towards the Liljegren type than the Foote type - talented, but not <em>defensively</em> talented. And unfortunately, that's the same category Reily falls into. The Leafs are asking these people to really build up their defensive game and step a completely new role with very little help (as in nobody to cover for their mistakes, otherwise they'll hardly be Cup contenders and will more than likely need to move one of their best forwards to do something about it. I don't think any team has ever won the Cup without a single experienced defenseman.</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 6, 2018 at 11:46
Forum: Armchair-GMSep 4, 2018 at 8:28
Forum: Armchair-GMAug 8, 2018 at 12:20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>You're under the salary floor, but there's a reason you can't get top prospects when your star is a UFA soon.

***

***

GMs know . . . that a soon-to-be UFA is less valuable, so they will offer less. Of course, the Senators are demanding top prospects, but if they just hang up the phone and wait, Dorion will <em>have</em> to back down, or he'll end up with nothing. it's even worse with the Karlsson case, since it's quite apparent that he won't re-sign in Ottawa. And, when you have an owner like Melnyk who insists that one of the worst contracts in the League be included in the trade, that makes things harder because no Cup contender has the cap space for that. Some assets have to go to a third team to make them take on that contract, and that comes directly from the Senators' return.

So no, you're not going to get Point, Sergachev, Cirelli, Glass, Suzuki, or Heiskanen. You'd be lucky to get Honka, Foote, or Brannstrom. Heiskanen is an overpayment considering the risk (the Stars risk losing him for free in free agency, and they lose a top prospect when they maybe could have signed him in free agency without it). And for the Lightning and Vegas, yes, they have good prospects, but these are instrumental to their future success (and sometimes, for players like Point, for their current success as well). There's simply no way around it - you don't get top prospects for a soon-to-be UFA who everyone knows won't re-sign with you.</div></div>

This is the best comment I've ever seen posted on CapFriendly AGM. I wish I could give YOU five stars. It should be mandatory reading for every dreamer or idiot who thinks Ottawa should get the equivalent of three or four first-round draft picks for Erik Karlsson. (I keep getting outraged comments and one star for postings in which I suggest that Ottawa will get only one.)
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 24, 2018 at 8:02
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>WHY would they let McDonagh and Stralman walk and re-sign Coburn? Girardi's a lot more likely to stay than Coburn, as well, and he wouldn't cost that much at his age and production (but is still better than Coburn). Dotchin's also not worth any more than his current contract; he maybe gets $1m. Same with Paquette (either he keeps his current contract, or he walks and it doesn't even matter). The only way Coburn stays is if Foote, Cernak, Masin, Thomas, Dotchin, and Koekkoek <em>all</em> turn out to be busts and no team is willing to make a reasonable trade. Actually, McDonagh's already been extended, so letting him walk isn't even an option. Kucherov's also already been extended for $9.5m.

Players like Callahan and Coburn don't have a full NTC, and can block trades only to teams on his 16 team list, so they can be traded. I'd say there are more than 16 teams with enough space to take Coburn or Callahan with a draft sweetener, and there are many teams that could benefit from these players for the short remainder of their contracts. Also, though J.T. Miller had an impressive streak on a line with Stamkos and Kucherov, for the right return, he could be traded (unlike Kucherov or Vasilevskiy, who are obviously untouchable).

Callahan may not have NYR on his no-trade list, as he's from Rochester and used to play for NYR (even if he'd prefer Tampa, if New York isn't on his list, he can't block it). There's also a chance that, when Seattle comes, Tyler Johnson waives his NTC to go in the expansion draft, since he's from Spokane (for free, that would be a bad loss for the Lightning, but considering the upcoming expansion draft, they're going to have to lose <em>somebody</em> good).

The Lightning can get Karlsson and afford him at $6.5m. The problem is extending Point, Karlsson, and Gourde at the same time, especially as McDonagh and Kucherov's cap hits both go up. Karlsson would have to take a discount (less than $10m for sure), and Point would have to accept a cheap bridge deal (and Yzerman would then have to clear out cap in a few years to pay him a ton of money). I ran through it at <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/157537">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/157537</a> (with Karlsson). They would have to find a third team willing to take Bobby Ryan in exchange for picks/prospects, which would have to be a team not included on Ryan's 10 team no-trade list. But, if the Senators attach Ryan to a Karlsson deal, the return going to Ottawa drops significantly, especially considering the Senators have their hands tied due to Karlsson confirming that he does not intend to re-sign with the Senators under Melnyk.

I ran through one potential stimulation for the Lightning to manage Karlsosn at <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/157537">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/157537</a> . All of those things have to work exactly right, otherwise they end up losing an important asset. If you take away Karlsson's cap hit, you have room to keep a few of the players who were traded (J.T. Miller would be particularly good to keep if possible), and can maintain more prospect depth (so within the next couple of years, they're still deep at forward).

As Yzerman said, they can take Karlsson, but it will require some difficult cap manipulation. But it is possible.

Also, you're overpaying Chiasson.</div></div>

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I Know Nothing About Hockey my *%%. That was great input. Thanks! As for Chiasson, I routinely overpay UFA guys who have breakout years. I'm always wrong, too (Demelo, Grant, Nosek . . .)
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 22, 2018 at 6:12
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 13, 2018 at 12:27
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 12, 2018 at 10:13
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>If you reduce the term for Point by a couple of years, you can probably get him on around a $5,000,000 deal.</div></div>

I think a 3 year deal would definitely be cheaper, however they just signed JT Miller to 5.25, and I don't see Point getting less than that, so maybe a 3 x 5.25 deal?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>That’s also more than I would expect for Stralman at his age and production.</div></div>

Fair point, I wasn't sure on him. I did 4.75 just to give him a bit of a raise, but possibly something lower. They do have Cal Foote coming up, with Dotchin projected to be top four, so he is slowly on his way out the door I imagine.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div> You could maybe reduce Koekkoek by a tiny bit, though it depends on how he does this year.</div></div>

I wasn't sure what to give Koekkoek, so I very well could have overpayed him, but like you said, it depends on his year (same goes for Point extension on that matter).

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div> I also might be under-estimating these just because I’m a Lightning fan and am internally biased to believe that players will take discounts to stay.</div></div>

To your point, almost all of TB's core has taken less money to play there, especially Hedman. It is a great place to play and live (been there a couple of times), and for a Southern city, they have a great, supporting fanbase.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>If anyone could do that without losing too much, it would be Yzerman, but Karlsson’s expensive, both to acquire and to keep. Sure, he’s an elite player, but at some point you’re losing more than you’re really getting. If they lose Sergachev and Foote, and can’t re-sign Point and/or Vasilevskiy, those are huge losses that aren’t easy to recover from, especially since they’d lose many picks as well. I would much prefer to see the Lightning without Karlsson than without Sergachev, Point, and top prospects.</div></div>

I absolutely agree. EK is a great defenseman, but i feel that TB is an overall better team without him, and are in better shape for the near future as well (with extensions for Sergachev, Point, Gourde, Vasilevsky, etc.). I actually just made a post for TB getting EK and made a mock roster for the 18-19 and 19-20 season, check it out if you can, I am interested to know what you think about it.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 13, 2018 at 12:09
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2</b></div><div>If he were free, I think he'd make us a better team, but obviously he isn't, and I think too many people are focusing on the actual value of these players instead of each team's needs. Sergachev is not as good as Karlsson, but he's also cheaper than Karlsson, a lot younger, and has potential to reach that level at some point, so I'd be cautious before trading him. He's certainly not as proven as Karlsson and may never reach that level, so maybe that's worth it is if you can keep Foote, Gourde, Point, Vasilevskiy, etc. and still avoid completely destroying the prospect pool. Otherwise, we can win a Cup without Karlsson. I also think that Faulk from the Hurricanes may be a cheaper option if Yzerman doesn't want to stand pat.</div></div>

Yes, if Karlsson hits free agency then maybe things change, but as it stands now I don;t think an EK trade is in their best interest. They can make it work, but it has a lot of risk. A potential trade is Sergachev, Raddysh and picks, and like you said, Sergachev is looking to be a stud, and as of next season would make at least 9 million less than EK (and is he 9M worse than him, probably not.). Then there is Raddysh, and who knows what he could turn into. Plus the picks, and this is not even to mentio n outting your team into cap hell in the coming years.

If McDonagh didn't get his extnesion for 6.75M (which I think is a good deal to be honest), then maybe there is room for EK. But yes, a cup for TB is definitely possible, if not probable with their current roster (and for years to come).

Faulk would be an interesting option, because he is much cheaper, and has two years left (unlikely to be extended afterwards I would think), and you can hold onto Sergachev on the back end. What do you think a trade for Faulk would look like? Here is my trade for him:

Raddysh
2019 3rd
2019 6th

Faulk
2019 5th

Raddysh is exactly what Carolina would want (aside from not being a center), but he is a young, inexpensive forward to add to their forward core (with Skinner on his way out), and Faulk is the odd man out as it is, and he is definitely on the trade market. I think this one goes through, Carolina may want a little bit more for him (perhaps ditch their pick in the trade and sweeten the deal just a touch on the TB side, but I think this is a solid deal for both teams. Trades from a position of strength on both sides (TB with forwards, CAR with D). Let me know what you think.