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Bedard23
Member Since
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Forum: Site DiscussionDec. 13, 2023 at 3:24 p.m.
1. Trades are more likely to occur when there are changes that prompt them (player is due a raise, another player has supplemented them in lineup)

2. Trade comps will predict the price for most trades. Our gut won't.

3. Wingers grow on trees (there are always cheap wingers). Young centers and top-4 dmen rarely move.

4. There are differences between deadline trades (short-term focus) and off-season trades (longer-term)

5. See #2...always trust the comps over your own gut.

6. There is a risk premium on goalies...since their performance is harder to replicate (meaning the return is lower)

7. The cost for salary retention is a fairly stable market (use comps to determine cost of cap space)

8. There are some teams that *never* take salary dumps. Find out who they are.

9. There is a developmental super-cycle that every team goes through (Competing->Aging->Deconstructing->Rebuilding->Competing). Items like cap space and draft have different value at different stages.

10. Read #2 again on comps.

11. Sign-and-trades are rare (but could become more common). Setoguchi was first as RFA in 2011. Severson was first as UFA in 2023.

12. There valued added by intangibles is de minimis. For instance, he is 'good for your teams kids' or 'good locker room guy' don't change trade prices.

13. Trades do get rejected by league. We don't hear about them.

14. Top-25 prospects rarely get moved. Maybe once every couple of years. Top-50 prospects maybe once a year. Prospects in 51-100 range move frequently. Ask accordingly.

15. See #2 on comps.

16. There are contract limits. Teams usually want to be under those limits. Trading 5 guys for 1 doesn't help them.

17. Trading after the deadline is allowed. The limitations are for roster eligibility for post-season.

18. The value of a draft pick traded at the draft is largely known. Valuing a pick months away from draft is much more complicated.

19. Unsigned prospects are worth less than signed versions.

20. Trust the comps.