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J2W

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Forum: NHLMay 10, 2022 at 4:14 p.m.
Thread: 2021-22 NHL Off-season Discussion Thread - #1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>But in that case, that the 13th team won, moving up to 3rd, is the 2nd draw for 1st overall, 2nd overall or 4th overall? That is what I'm curious about.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>But in that case, that the 13th team won, moving up to 3rd, is the 2nd draw for 1st overall, 2nd overall or 4th overall? That is what I'm curious about.</div></div>

I'm relatively certain that the first draw is for 1OA, or moving up ten spots, the 2nd draw is for 2OA or moving up 10 spots. If 12th won the 1st draw and moved up to 2OA, the 2nd draw is still technically for 2OA, but 12th gets priority on that pick due to winning the 1st draw, making the draw for 3OA in reality. So if 13th won the 1st draw and moved up to 3rd, and then 12th won the 2nd draw, 12th would move up to 2nd, 13th would pick 3rd and the Coyotes would pick 4th. I'd assume that MTL will be removed from the lottery if 12th or lower wins the 1st draw since they would be locked into 1OA.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2020 at 11:19 p.m.
Thread: Lottery winners
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>15-16 he didn't play a season, he played a hand full of games.
Which can also be said this year as he was hurt all year.
I'm willing to toss out the outlier season of him scoring 27 goals while tossing out Domi 70 point season. Even though the truth is Josh has a greater chance of repeating that than Domi does.
And when that's done and you look at the two other actual seasons there, the goals are about even.
Just like I throw out Domi's 9 goal seasons. Which were full seasons mind you, but AZ probably wasn't the right spot for him.

These are two players of very similar value. You can expect to get about 16-20 goals from them. Domi might give you a little more assists, but Josh is going to give you a physical presence and a guy who can be in the dirty areas and lay hits. He's a true power forward.</div></div>

Ok, you see them as similar value with Anderson's physical play putting him ahead, I see Domi having more value as a Center who can put up reasonable point totals. Agree to disagree on that, they are both good players. Anderson just needs to have a healthy run to prove he can be what he was in his best season.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2020 at 11:01 p.m.
Thread: Lottery winners
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>i like how you just make **** up as you go. his first 2 complete years were 17 and 19 goals...but go on live in fantasy land

If you have a hard time with facts you should just delete your account.</div></div>

What did I make up? He scored only 1 goal in 2 seperate seasons (15-16 and 19-20) and, since we agreed that his best season would be discounted as an outlier like Domi's, he has his 17 and 19 goal seasons. I mean if you don't want to count 15-16 because he was still trying to break into the league full time just say so, I'm more than willing to accept that even if it was his 2nd season getting NHL games. Outside of his outlier season, he has never broken 30 points.
If your issue is the statement that 'Domi is easily the more valuable asset in a trade' then sure, I should have stated that it was in my opinion since we don't actually have NHL GM's here to confirm it.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2020 at 4:05 p.m.
Thread: Lottery winners
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>lets do that.
He still picking up 17 &amp;19 goals, in the dirty areas, the hard to get goals. Net front presence goals. While being a force on the ice.
Meanwhile Domi has had 2 years in AZ where he picked up 9 goals per, and other than that been a 17-18 goal guy.

which is the whole point.
Stop trying to turn andrson into something he's not. He's not an assist guy. What you don't get in points from assists you get in other intangibles that he brings to the ice.
Their numbers frankly are roughly even. Both are guys who are going to get you upper teen level goals.</div></div>

If you take out they outlier seasons, Anderson has as many seasons scoring 1 goal as he does scoring 15-20 (I didn't count his 6 game 1st season) and no seasons above 30 points. He is a 3rd liner with upside, barely an upgrade on Lehkonen offensively with his only real bonus being MTL is short on right shot forwards. Domi when you take out his outlier is a 40-45 point player with upside who can play C.
Domi is easily the more valuable asset in a trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 19, 2020 at 12:31 a.m.
Thread: Clear cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>I’m not denying Gourde struggled this year. But based on the last 3 years his numbers are wayyyy better than Lehkonen or Armia. He’s 28. He’s not 38. I don’t think he’s regressing. I think he had an off year. Habs would be better to trade Tatar and get some future assets while gourde in an expanded role in MTL could help replace his production. 50-60 points is a very realistic point total for gourde. To start the season.

Tatar-Danault-Gallagher
Domi-Suzuki-Gourde
Drouin-JK-Armia

Gives this team a really balanced top 9 to start the year. Though I do believe Tatar will be traded at the deadline. He’s absolutely capable of putting up 50-60 points on that line. I’m not a Tampa fan and don’t care for them. I just think MTL is a good fit for both teams</div></div>

Based on most stats looking at NHL forwards production in relation to age Gourde is on the back half of his career. He's likely 40-45 points going forward and not 50-60 points. He had one really good year when he managed to make the NHL at an older age than most, and he's dropped off both years since. If he had less term, or there was less uncertainty about the cap, I'd be happy to get him for scraps but 5 years at more than 5M for a guy who has been on the downswing just isn't a good use of cap space. Personally I'd still likely take the risk (I'd be less than ecstatic about it and if I'm the only team he's willing to waive his full NTC for I'd push for retention to about 4.5M), but I won't pretend a 28 year old who's production would make him bottom 6 and has seen a decline the last 2 years should be referred to as one of the better wingers on the team if the trade happened.
I'd gamble that his short term usefulness made would allow me to move him for similar value in a season or two, since I think waiving his NTC would void it moving forward (if not then I wouldn't trade for him) and the cap should hopefully recover with Seattle and the new US TV deal in a few years.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 18, 2020 at 11:36 p.m.
Thread: Clear cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>Wingers who are better: Drouin, Domi (if he plays wing), Tatar (who will be traded), Gallagher. So yeah he’s definitely up there.</div></div>

Tampa was the best offensive team in the league, and Gourde's production with them would have placed him 8th on MTL, and I wouldn't call a player with bottom 6 production one of a teams better wingers. If he bounces back sure he could push for that label, but right now he is closer to Lehkonen than top 6, and given he broke into the NHL at 26 and has declined both seasons since I don't see him as more than what he is right now, which is a 3rd liner even on MTL who need offense. Also, Armia (who is younger and therefore atleast as likely to repeat his production as Gourde is to regain his form) was better this year also, so that's 5 wingers (Domi or Suzuki plays wing) on MTL next season, again making Gourde a 3rd line winger.
TL;dr, Gourde is unlikely to be top 6, aka one of the better wingers, on MTL next season unless they are a bottom feeder selling off everything they can, in which case they should be using cap space as a way to aquire young assets. This doesn't mean I think he is bad, it just means that I find the statement that he would be one of MTL's better wingers false.
Gourde's less than a year younger than Tatar, so if Tatar's ask is resonable it's a better idea to use the cap space on him.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 18, 2020 at 10:13 p.m.
Thread: Clear cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>Gourde this year struggled but when he puts up 50-60+ points like the last two years his contract looks fine. This would be an opportunity where a team could buy low on him because of a down year.</div></div>

I'm not saying he isn't a good buy low candidate, I'm saying that at 28 with his cap hit and term he's a massive risk for any team to aquire, and with the season he just had he's more of a comparable to Lehkonen than he is a potential top winger for MTL. Again, in relation to MTL, he would barely be an offensive upgrade on Lehkonen (who again, is younger than Gourde was when he had those 50-60 point seasons) if his decline is because of his age and he doesn't bounce back, while he is more than twice the cap hit. 5 more years at over 5M for a guy who had a 60 point season at age 26, with no NHL impact before that, and has declined in the 2 following years is, to hammer the point home again, a massive risk.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 18, 2020 at 9:26 p.m.
Thread: Clear cap
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>lol gourde would be one of your better wingers. hes not a complete cap dump. he had an off year.</div></div>

Gourde, playing for the top offensive team in the league, put up pts/gm that would fall 8th among MTL forwards this past season, so not one of their better wingers. Call it a down year if you want but he's 28, not an encouraging sign when arguing a bounce back, and would be barely an improvement on Lehkonen offensively (and MTL needs offense) before considering Lehkonen played for a far less offensively gifted team, and Lehkonen is not only younger than Gourde was in his career year, but also less than half the cap hit.
Gourde just doesn't make sense at full cost unless MTL gets some kind of gaurenteed compensation if he doesn't regain his form, and the value would either need to be a significant one time offer, or smaller compensation every year of his contract if he doesn't play to a certain level.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19, 2020 at 11:48 p.m.
Thread: Kickstart the Re-build Baby
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Generally I agree, but as I said I do not respect Bergevin's ability to build a team or evaluate talent. I also think that Couture is better than just his raw points would say and certainly better for you than either of the options you've provided. I also want to point out that Couture has been the 1C for a few years now and is a bonified 1C. He is no Matthews or Eichel or McDavid but he is a 1C through and through.

As I stated in the og thread where I justified this trade further I think Bergevin's seat is beginning to heat up (you certainly aren't sucking on purpose) and that both he and Molson are not interested in re-building. To further clarify for J2W, I also think Bergy would see Vlasic (especially at this much retention) as an asset as many people still do (mostly those who aren't analytically inclined). If you work from the idea that the Habs are trying to win now and want to buy, 'adding' Vlasic and more importantly that 1C you have been missing for so long could be seen as the piece that finally brings you over the top.

You argue that Price and Weber's contracts make this less likely but I actually see it the other way. Your team has two time bombs on it already that are going to weigh you down for years. What is two more if it helps you win a cup now? You have a window already pre-built into your roster and these players don't affect it. I think that is why I think this move does have some logic behind it even if I wouldn't do it as a GM.

Specifically for J2W, MTL doesn't have serious cap issues for a number of years and are in what I describe as a uniquely capable position of dealing with the Vlasic and Couture contracts compared to the rest of the league. The next USTV deal will be signed soon and Covid wont last forever so the cap should be bouncing up soon enough.</div></div>

Again you're justification for the trade is your opinion of the GM and see it as a long shot but possible, that's fine. Couture on his own is something I'd explore, but if Mtl is in win now mode the might as well look at Kopitar and someone like Brodin for futures. Even in win now mode it's a barely passable idea, there's just better options out there.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19, 2020 at 8:57 p.m.
Thread: Domi but not for brodin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>Greenway/Ek &gt; Lehkonen. Stalock &gt; Juulsen. And Brodin &gt; Domi. (Though I'll give you that Brodin as a UFA balances it) Of course they wouldn't take that. Lehkonen is also largely overvalued by habs fans. He's more of a bottom six player than either of those I offered.

There might be a difference between a 2nd line center and a third line center, but you are enlarging it to be far more drastic than it should be. Also I am trading for his rights here, not a set contract. He might demand so much money that MTL won't want to sign him and that they are forced to trade him for the sake of the team long term.
If he was already signed and there was more clarity on what his contract picture was like, a reasonable contract would warrant him a higher return.</div></div>

Lehkonen is also a 3rd line winger, of similar age to Greenway and Ek, and while less talented offensively is better defensively, pick what you value more in your bottom 6 and that's who has more value. Personally I would go Ek-Lehkonen-Greenway, but to each their own. Backups have less value than they should, simply because some prospect could jump out of nowhere and make the trade a waste of value, and while Juulsen does have low value do to injury with Primeau and the Demchenko signing it's doubtful MTL views him as less valuable than a backup during the offseason.
Brodin would be a rental who could leave for nothing if his ask is to high or just if he feels like it, while even Domi's rights give you value because he is an RFA, so Domi has more value than Brodin without an extension.
Seriously though, you're overvaluing Wild players, while trying to be on a high horse about Habs fans overvaluing Habs players. Look at past deals for young 50 point RFA centers, they don't come this cheap. Rentals cost more.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 19, 2020 at 8:11 p.m.
Thread: Domi but not for brodin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>perhaps MTL would prefer Ek? I figured they'd want the gameplay style that Domi had, but I would have to agree than he seems like a third liner. My assessment might be a bit high, but I was also being generous in what I was giving to MTL, though I'm sure their fans would strongly disagree with that.</div></div>

You think a different 23 year old 3rd liner would change the value? A 2nd rounder, a backup goalie that as I already pointed out in my previous post isn't even likely something MTL is looking for in the offseason, and a 3rd liner isn't a generous offer for a 2C and whether you like it or not that's where Domi's stats put him. Again, the best comparison to your offer is Lehkonen, Juulsen and a 2nd for Brodin, and no Wild fan is taking that.