Apr 11, 2019
2nd Favourite Team
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>villenash</b></div><div>well lol.
I guess my next question would be - how much of that is due to usage?
Ekholm gets less favorable zone starts and plays against top competition more often than Sergachev. Sergachev also doesn't play the PK on TB, averaging only 0:13 seconds a game on the PK. So I guess I would have to see how usage is affecting those stats you're talking about and, if given the same usage, how their numbers compare.
Bonino is a good, defensive forward -- but you're saying that his defense is worse than the Predator average. So again, I would want to see what that is in terms of usage -- is it being skewed by his PK numbers (and the Preds have an awful PK this year) or is it only counting his 5v5 defensive numbers only? Because I would be surprised if that was the case considering the Grimaldi-Bonino-Smith line has been one of the best lines in the NHL this season in terms of underlying numbers. Cirelli is a solid 2-way center, but he is also playing behind Kucherov, Stamkos, and Point. He does play with them sometimes (mainly Stamkos), but when he is not playing with one of TB's top offensive players, I would suspect that the other team is not playing their top players against Cirelli which may give him a slightly easier experience (this part is just speculation, but just showing how the numbers could be interpreted in different ways and we may need additional information to really understand them).
Also, are the numbers you're using just from this season or based on their career totals? Because this year the Predators goaltending is absolutely atrocious (although Saros has been playing very well the last two months). So that may also be a factor in the numbers that you are looking at. No player is going to have good defensive numbers when the goalies couldn't even stop a beach ball earlier in the year. So if you are only looking at the impacts of these players this year, I'd be curious about the difference between last year v. this year.
So I guess I would need to get a sense of the whole picture before I could make a determination on the positive/negative impacts these trades may have on the overall team.</div></div>
Obviously if your on tampa you are going to be starting in the offensive zone more. Ekholm and Seragachev is about a 3% difference in offenesive zone starts and averages 3 less mintues a game as well. TB runs all 3 d pair a lot more though due more consisent play out of the 3rd pair.
I based it only on 5x5, there is a seperate section for PP, PK impact. I guess all i can really say is check out the website. I only use this season as it free. Looking at career stuff you need to pay. There is awlays flaws in evaluating a single player when there is 5 guys out on the ice. To me It just tells a different story about some players. Like a lot of Pred players have bad impact in front of the net. It show which players kind of carry players and such. Highly recommed looking at it. It changed my opnion on some guys. Like i never knew how much Granlund impacted the game defensively. Changed how I think we should keep him and resign him instead of trading him at the deadline. All I can say is check it out, figure it out (which takes a little bit) then it might make more sense what/why I made these trades. I can understand why your skeptical tho.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>villenash</b></div><div>Let's say that all of this works - my biggest concern would be the overall team defense. Sergachev, Fabbro, and Allard are not exactly the best "defensemen" in the truest sense of the word (not really sure what Scandella is like). And with the forward additions/subtractions, I think our PK is worse off overall. Cirelli is a solid 2-way center and great on the PK, but I don't see how it would be any better with the addition of Cirelli and the subtraction of Ekholm, Bonino, Watson, and Johansen.
So all in all, I would most be concerned about team defense with this line up, especially with the same goaltending going into the 2020-21 season.
As far as the TB trade, I think NSH could be in a good position to trade for a player like Killorn to help TB clear some cap space. He is a lead by example kind of player that plays hard -- maybe he could get some of the players that are coasting right now to play harder on a more regular basis. Just a thought - I don't think he would cost too much either.</div></div>
So, I based most of this off of hockeyviz.com 5x5 isolated impact, threat, and with/without player. Pretty much to create better defensive team that is younger. It also balances out some player who have weak D game and put them with a player that are good defensively.
Sergachev has more offense & defense impact compared to Ekholm. Ekholm increases the threat of scoring for the other team when he has been on the ice this season. He has been stuck with awful partners this year which doesnt help his case, but this move was more ablut getting younger. Fabbro is just there cause he is young and is still developing. Allard is known better for defense, being posied and having a sound game. Scandella is very strong on D not much of an offensive threat.
Johnasen and Watson are actually more of a negative impact, but average in other areas. Bonino has really been carried by Smith from an offensive stand point, his defense is actually worse than the Predator average. Cirelli impacts the game far greater than Johansen does.
I see it more as a time to take advantage of TB cause of their cap problems. It would a good time to get younger and stay competive at the same time while improving the future of the team. Just my take.