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JSEB93

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Forum: Armchair-GM7 hours ago
Thread: Offseason 1 2024
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>Oh I was talking about Georgiev not Jarry sorry for the confusion. And this is all applicable to Georgiev not Jarry, Breaking sticks, accidentally hitting teammates with his stick, literally letting in a the odd super soft goal. All that and he has been horrendous his last 5 outings, yeah the pk has been bad too, but he gave up 22 goals in his last 5 outings and just looked awful. He really hasn’t been good all year and the team did him no favors running Prosvetov as the back up for half the season over playing him particularly in November December and the first part of January playing him 30 times in that stretch. His QS% and GSAA stats I like to look at are career lows the GSAA is an atrocious -12.1. Good talk my friend!</div></div>

Oh haha - that would make more sense. I should've known when you were talking about seeing the games in person. That's my bad.

Wow, I didn't know that about Georgiev. I mean obviously I know he's struggled, but not al the details. I appreciate the info. That's definitely unfortunate to hear, but at least your team in front of him is amazing enough to carry him to the postseason. Good luck in the playoffs - and yeah good chat!
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 4:31 p.m.
Thread: Offseason 1 2024
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>I mean honestly the answer is going to go one of three ways. 1) Georgiev rights the ship and takes them on a deep run then it’s all moot. All he really has to do is be .900 as COL is the highest scoring team and 5v5 team this year. 2) Georgiev stumbles, Annunen comes in does what he has done so far in the regular season and takes them on a deep run and the solution long term has been solved. 3) they both struggle and the Avs are out in the first or second round and they are looking for a new starter and then anybody including Jarry is an option. Honestly I’ve seen a fair share of games (perk of work the seats are exceptional) in person and he has just look beat after he gives up a goal, and his antics down the stretch are not well received by the team as a whole.</div></div>

I saw, specifically in March, some times where he looked defeated or frustrated after a goal if thats what you're referring to. But the Pens were basically the worst defensive team in the league that month - so personally I'll give him the pass on that. Also there was a stretch where a ton of the goals hit off their own players, or defenders were running into Jarry - I think part of it was just shock.

Not sure what you mean by his antics and not being well received though?

I'm not saying Jarry is some elite goalie by the way. I've always had him in that 10-12 range give or take. Whether he's worth the upgrade to a team based on cap hit and what assets you have to give up - that's the million dollar question. I totally understand if people say they'd rather just give a 2mil goalie a shot and see how it goes. Especially for a good team like COL
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 11:53 a.m.
Thread: Offseason 1 2024
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>Honestly COL is on the verge of an existential crisis in goal. Georgiev has been horrendous, in his last 5 games he is 1-4 didn’t make it out of the first period in one game and gave up 22 goals. Yeah the d has struggled mightily but COL has to have at least a steady goaltender that is available and gives them .900 goal keeping. Honestly no answer is really off the table, but one thing that can’t happen is they take on a bigger cap hit than Georgiev. That’s my two cents at least.</div></div>

Yeah I gotcha - that's what we're here for haha - just throwing out our opinions. Love the conversations.

I mean Jarry would kind of fit that bill though no? If you give the guy average defense he'll drop like a .915. Sure he's not perfect, some injuries and consistency things - but that's what separates the elite from the good. His games started would say that overall he's still a relatively available goaltender as well - probably mid 50 starts a year.

I definitely understand the cap hit point though. Just because a guy is an upgrade doesn't mean he's worth it. That's why I said I'm not saying COL would accept the trade.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 4:25 p.m.
Thread: Penguins 2024-25 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>again not a single stat.
I gave you the Dzone start stat, in link.
They aren't wrong. That's it.
You are trying to talk about in game flow starts. Think about that for 1 minute would you.
You aren't going to change on your side of the ice for multiple reasons that should be obvious to anyone who's ever played hockey or watched. Especially when your bench is the far one on switches.
Players would rather stay in for shifts over 1:30 before try to switch pinned in their own end.

This is why this 12% stat you keep trying to justify is junk. It's a non-validated stat as they would say in analytics.
And the reason the one hockey-ref is giving you is way more telling.
Nor do neutral zone starts, tell you which direction the puck is heading. So it tells you nothing about use.
But the stat that hockey-ref gives you does.
As far as i'm concerned this should be obvious to anyone looking at it. So I don't know why you are obsessed with a non validated stat. When you are given a better one.

again, show me the justification for a "bad" year in the numbers. There are 31 other 2LD in the league, compare the numbers, lets see how it's a bad year.
I just gave you 1/4 the league. The numbers are on part with most, some a little better some a little worse but on par. Only guys getting paid way more have any real noticeable advantage. But you get what you pay for right?</div></div>

Dude I've provided them already. If you're not going to read my comments there's no point in continuing this conversation. I've provided the discrepancies between him and rest of the top4. I gave comparisons between EK/Letang with the different LHD. I gave his player card WAR.

Here - https://moneypuck.com/stats.htm

Yes - you are wrong. It's not junk - it's just factually correct. You said dzone starts - I gave you dzone starts. No - it's not more telling. Because I haven't been given a better one - that's why.

Dude I've already provided it. Read my comments before responding. I wish we got what we paid for. We got a 2LD having a bad season that EK and Letang have tried to drag into looking average. And again - people have bad seasons. I get it. It doesn't mean he's an awful player, or that he can't bounce back. But the guy has had a bad season. It's clear to anyone who has even remotely followed this team
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 4:17 p.m.
Thread: Pens return
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>I don't think you get it.
I only need to show his play is average 2LD play.
Which was the whole point. You just don't get what bad 2LD play is.
All his numbers rank up in line in average with other 2LD.
There are a handful that have better numbers. They are also getting paid far more... Like Orlov. But they didn't want to pay 7.7 mil per for that level of player, so don't expect that level of player.
Go look at the numbers.
You will see.
His corsi is on par, his fenwick is no par. His oiGA is better than most. He's not a turn over machine.
They paid for a 2LD....they got a 2LD. It's not a "bad" season..... it's just what a 2LD is.
Be glad he's a guy who only gave up a 5v5 oiGA 2.0 as some of these guys are far worse.

So again. Show me through the stats. Compare the 2LDs. Where are the huge issues that say "bad" season.</div></div>

Honestly I don't think you get anything. Okay then do it. Because you have yet to do so. They got 2LD having a very bad season for his contract. Except it is a bad season. You are the only person on planet Earth saying he's had a good season. There's a reason for that. Take a hint. Dude I've explained the GA/60 thing like 50 times already. That is the only number you have and are clinging to it - and not only is that one facet of the game but I've explained the issue with it.

I've provided ample evidence. Not my fault if you won't take the time to read it. You on the other hand - have provided no evidence that he's having a good season.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 4:14 p.m.
Thread: Pens return
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>again, you showed offensive stats. POJ is paired with letang in the Ozone because he can't defend. ... POJ does not drive those numbers. He's just a ride along and keeping him out his own end.

There is no abnormally high sv% Graves 5v5 PDO is 99.7 .... that means they are statistically on par. again leading with numbers not opinions on how it got there.
58.5 D zone starts 5v5.... defensive use... leading with numbers
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/gravery01.html

Don't tell me what your opinion of it is.... those are the stats.</div></div>

??? No I didn't. I showed overall metrics - which is exactly what we should be looking at. POJ is paired with Letang because that's his current d partner. POJ also gets the same % of ozone starts as Graves. If he's just a ride along then so is Graves.

Yes - Graves has an abnormally high on ice sv%. This is just a factual statement. Clearly you don't know what PDO is. You're not leading with numbers lol - you are going solely based on your opinion.

And you've provided absolutely no stats that show he has had a good season. Anybody can just throw out numbers.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 4:05 p.m.
Thread: Penguins 2024-25 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>A. he is used defensively. you keep wanting to say 12.7% of his starts are defensive. Look at those numbers you posted.
Letang was 11, EK was 10... what you think Chad R. and now Ivvany is getting 78% of the d starts? Your numbers don't add up.
you want to use neutral zone starts to diminish the actual starts. I'm not playing that game. Neutral zone starts don't tell you the direction the puck is going.
So it's worthless.
But zone starts do.

I have looked at game logs, there is a small stretch of games Graves time is diminished. But even in that time he's still getting more time. He got 14 minutes in some games. but POJ and the 3RD were getting 9-10 minutes. so he was still carrying the 4th spot. There was maybe 3-4 games where that wasn't the case. But it doesn't matter, His TIO is still 18:23 over the 70 games. where POJ is 14:58 boosted by the fact graves has been out 11 games now.

So again, you aren't leading with any numbers here.
You seem to think every defenseman is going to have great numbers. 55% corsi... that isn't 2LD numbers. roughly 50% is 2LD corsi numbers. You see to think guys who are taking defensive roles are suppose to have offensive numbers. They aren't.
Lead with numbers, not opinion.
I'm showing you this. I'm giving other 2LD comparable. I'm showing the stats as they measure.
Do the same.</div></div>

"He's used defensively" isn't an argument for him having a good season - especially not when he hasn't been good defensively and only stats in the dzone marginally more. I keep wanting to say that because that's the % of his starts that are in the dzone. Yes - look at them. Ruhwedel is around 12%. St Ivany is around 7%. How do they not add up? That makes no sense. I'm the one giving you the actual zone starts. Of course you aren't - because you don't want to play any game that would prove you wrong. My number is in no way worthless. You said dzone starts. Thats literally what i provided. You're just trying to move the goalposts now because you know you're wrong.

So you agree his TOI was diminished. Okay cool - end of that topic. I'm right.

Yes - I am. It's you that isn't. No - I don't. Just another strawman from you. Stop with this defensive role nonsense dude - you have no point there. It doesn't mean he's had a good season. He also hasn't been good defensively.

Dude - take you own advice. Lead with numbers, not opinion. You've given nothing that says he's had a good season. Saying "he's been deployed defensively" is not a good argument for him having a good season

I literally gave you the Pettersson/Graves/POJ comparison. I also gave you evidence that he is clearly lacking the rest of the top4 on the Pens. I gave you his horrendous WAR on his player card
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 3:48 p.m.
Thread: Pens return
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>I am more than happy to have the POJ argument.
POJ 5v5 oiGA is almost a full goal ahead of Graves at 2.9 to 2.
He bleeds almost 50% more goals on the ice in 5v5 play. Period.
Graves is not an offensive defensemen, we have established his deployment is mainly in the defensive role, So I don't care what his offensive numbers are. That's not what they asked him to do. They asked him to stop the goals from bleeding. that is obvious.</div></div>

I don't think you are - because you just completely avoided my stats comparing Graves and POJ playing with the same d partner. And how it's significantly worse than with Pettersson. Again - Graves' abnormally high on ice sv% is what makes him better in the GA/60 metric.

His deployment isn't the defensive zone - we've established that. Okay but don't you care that he's also been bad defensively? Yes - they did. And he's not doing that
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 3:35 p.m.
Thread: Pens return
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>Lets look at your stats first.
his corsi is almost 50%, he does as hockey-ref show get 58% of his starts in dzone.
that's about what you should expect there. It's average. No other top 4 is getting those dzone starts.
Is that it?
lets do some comparable around the league.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/o/oleksja01.html Jamie Oleksiak
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/r/romanal01.html Alexander Romanov
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/w/walkese01.html Sean Walker
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/lindees01.html Esa Lindell 5.8 mil
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/l/lauzoje01.html Jeremy Lauzon
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/mcnabbr01.html Brayden McNabb
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/gavrivl01.html Gavrikov, Vladislav 5.8 mil
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/o/orlovdm01.html Dmitry Orlov 7.7 mil



I picked those almost random. Some I had to pass on, low number of games, or I knew they were not 2LD like on PHL who traded their 2LD to COL.
It's 1/4 the league. Depth chart has them as 2LD.
It's from a mix of team roughly same level as the penguins some teams are better. I tried not to take bottom teams as their stats might be a bit bias against the defensemen.
Graves number are roughly average for a 2LD. You can see so above.
There are 1 or 2 who are better defenseman than Graves. There is no doubt Orlov is a better defenseman than Graves. He is also getting 7.7 mil per.
One could argue some of Gavrikov stats have him as a slight improvement. He's getting 5.8 mil per.

You are going to have to do better on your statistical arguments. As you got an average 2LD there, on an average 2LD salary.
Jamie Oleksiak is one of the closest comparable. Big, defensive defenseman, roughly same salary. Near identical numbers.
You don't here SEA fans slamming him all day long every day.

Try again.</div></div>

Correct, almost 50% - as in 49%. Which is what I said. MoneyPuck has his ACTUAL dzone starts at 12.7%. Why did you say "is that it" as if you made some kind of point?

No - I don't need to do any better. You on the other hand - need to do significantly better.

Nowhere did you prove he isn't having a bad season. Try again.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 3:08 p.m.
Thread: Penguins 2024-25 Season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LuckyMoneyPuck</b></div><div>again people have stated this, when he was signed and afterwards. The burden is not on me to find the posts. They are there. if this site allowed search it would be easy to find, but sadly it does not.

B. saying "he was demoted" when his ice time never went down means nothing, his role changed, not his ice time.
I'm going to say this again. Show me your statistical proof he's a bad defenseman. You keep thinking the burden is on me to prove he's good. I've laid out the numbers and show what happened on the ice.

Where is your proof he's a bad defense man other than the already disproven theory of "he was demoted" which isn't true. Every night he still got more ice time than POJ, Shea, Ludvvig and Chad R or what ever other 3rd pairing guys there were. You can't point to the game, where he did not get injured, where that's not true. So his ice time clearly wasn't demoted. His role just shifted to make up for the bad 3rd pairing which was bleeding a ton of goals. So by all means, point the games out where his ice time was 5th or 6th for defenseman. aka 3rd pairing aka demotion. If you can't it's a dead argument.

So where is your stats that prove that a guy who gets mainly defensive starts in a shut down role as your own number have show, is a "bad" defenseman at the 2LD level.
If you are going to call it, you must prove it. The burden isn't the other way around. I have shown how he isn't and how his numbers are what should be expected. Now the burden is on you.
If you can't prove it. The convo is over.</div></div>

No they didn't. And the burden of proof is actually very much on you. That's how proving a point works man.

His ice time did go down. A lot. It takes like 5 seconds to look at his game log. I've provided it - here and in our other conversation(I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you wrote this comment first) - analytics, comparisons, player cards, etc. And yet you've provided nothing to show he is having a good season. Well yes - the burden of proof would be on you to prove he's good. You really don't understand how burden of proof is applied or what it means huh? You haven't though - you gave one number which I provided context for.

Dude read my comments please - both here and our other conversation(I'll give you the benefit of the doubt you wrote this comment first). It is 100% true. It's just a fact.

He doesn't get mainly defensive starts. He's at 12.7%. He's not playing a shut down role, and certainly isn't doing a good job of it if he is. I've given my proof, both here and in our other conversation .You have provided zero proof that he is having a good season. If you are going to call it, you must prove it. You somehow think everybody else needs to prove their point but you don't? Weird. Yes - the burden is one you. No - you haven't shown how he isn't. If you can't prove it - the convo is over. Everybody but you agrees Graves is having a bad season. There's a reason for that - take a hint