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JaXon

Member Since
Jun. 29, 2015
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Edmonton Oilers
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New York Islanders
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 5 at 7:19 p.m.
Thread: Oilers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Arizona is an overpay too. That's too much for a backup goalie by far.</div></div>

Hey CD282, yeah I think you're right (on both ARI and CBJ trades). I find if both sides think it's a bad trade I might be on the right track, haha. I had lower offers before and CBJ and ARI fans were freaking out, haha.

I found it useful to go back to last year's trade deadline deals to see how they compare... and it looks like EDM is overpaying on my proposals. So I might dial it back a bit.

That said, regardless of the underpay or overpay, I think Jenner, Ingram, and Walker would make for a great playoff team (and Ingram and Jenner would be around for next year as well). Walker is a rental.

I'm not sure I see Ingram as a backup, but more of a 1B. 1.95 for 2 more years after this year is a great bargain, so that is why I was willing to pay a lot for him.
Similarly, with Jenner, he is on a great cap hit, so to get him for 2 more years after this year at 2.75M (after 1.0M retained) is worth McLeod, a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. That's a lot but having him for 3 playoffs at low cap hit is worth it.

Walker is a rental, so I think a 2nd and a 3rd with retention makes sense plus a couple of fringe players.

Edmonton's future is kinda decimated from these trades but this gives them a real shot at a Cup before McDavid and Draisaitl have to sign again.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 26 at 1:47 p.m.
Thread: Oilers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Spaceman</b></div><div>Awful trade for Detroit. Sprong is arguably our best bottom six guy and on a cheap contract. He'll be resigned, albeit for a raise, but a well deserved one</div></div>

You may be right. If you separate the parts, how much do you think Detroit gets for Sprong at the deadline. This is, of course, assuming that they are sellers (which they very well may not be). He's a 4th line UFA winger. He may end up walking for nothing if they don't trade him at the deadline. Do they get a 4th round pick? I don't think they get a 3rd round pick for Sprong.

Eating Campbell's contract is another thing altogether. You may be right that they would have to give more than a 2nd round pick to take Campbell off their hands. Campbell is a Michigan kid (as is Gleason), so maybe coming back home is what they need to get back on track.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Yzerman and Holland do each other favours. Holland was Yzerman's GM for 8 years (and was on Detroit staff for 20 years of Yzerman's playing career) and then mentored Yzerman as VP of Hockey Operations for 4 years before Yzerman left for Tampa Bay. Then Holland was promoted to make room for Yzerman to come back as GM in Detroit. That's when Holland took the Oiler GM job.

I know they let Erne walk, but he was a popular player in Detroit and he did lead the team in goals in 2020-2021 (11 goals in 45 games), was 4th in points, and had one of the better +/- on the team when other top scorers were -14 to -18.

A 2nd and a 3rd, or two 2nds?
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 23, 2023 at 12:15 p.m.
Thread: Oilers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bwhsocal</b></div><div>AZ not trading a guy they just signed
they also have a lot of middle 6 W and not a lot of D</div></div>

That's exactly why both parties agreed to a 1 year contract. It is so Arizona can trade Dumba at the deadline to a contender for some futures (picks or young players). And Dumba wants to go to a contender at the deadline. He signed a 1-yr prove it contract to show off and get traded to a contender. and if they don't trade him, Dumba goes back to UFA next summer when the cap goes up and teams have more money to offer him. He didn't get the offers he wanted this summer because everyone was up against the cap, so he took the best 1 year offer he could get with the knowledge he'd either get traded at the deadline or would hit the open market again next summer.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2022 at 8:13 a.m.
Thread: Oilers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juiceman</b></div><div>Ok, now tell me how Vancouver even fits that under the cap. Canucks don't have 11 million dollars lying around for Barrie Foegele, Yamo, and Ryan. Another low effort post with low effort response. Colour me shocked. You clearly did not think about whether or not this trade could physically happen</div></div>

There are plenty of news outlets reporting about what the Canucks might be doing with Horvat and Miller. Miller is signed to a new contract next season but there are rumours the canucks may trade him before the new more expensive contract kicks in. It is currently $5.25M. Horvat's is $5.5M. That's $10.75M that may be coming off. They'll likely get a lot for those two players in futures and some close-to-breakout type players. If they decide to go rebuild, now is the time. They could start their rebuild with around three 1st round, two 2nd round, two 3rd round, two 4th round picks and a couple solid young cheap cost controlled high profile players. And what's with all the anger? Relax dude. It's just a hobby forum.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16, 2022 at 5:41 p.m.
Thread: Oilers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mv21227</b></div><div>How is dumping two negative assets a huge overpay? Yamamoto isn’t even valuable enough to offset the negative value, and you still haven’t paid for Schenn or Kuzmenko</div></div>

What do you think they're getting for 2 expiring contracts? Schenn is 33 and probably close to retiring and has been a bottom-pairing guy most of his career. They'll be lucky to get a 5th round pick for him. Kuzmenko is still unproven, but they might get a 2nd for him. Most teams would rather have Yamamoto than a 2nd. Also, these aren't players with contracts that are massive overpays. Feogele at 2.75 is reasonable, Yamamoto at 3 is reasonable, Barrie at 4.5 is reasonable, and Ryan at 1.25 is a good contract. Yamamoto, Ryan, and Barrie are also west coast kids so there is a good chance of re-signing them down the road if they wish, possibly to hometown-friendly contracts.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19, 2022 at 9:37 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19, 2022 at 9:23 a.m.
Thread: Oilers - Barrie-Foegele Out - PKSubban-VRask-DSprong In
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ceeque84</b></div><div>replacing Barrie with PK makes the defence worse.
In the current market 30+ year old 4th line players should not be signed for more than $850k per. Janmark, Ryan, &amp; Rask are all overpaid on a team that is desperate for as much cap space as they can get.</div></div>

Maybe Rask is a bit high. I didn't sign Janmrak or Ryan, however, haha, so not much choice there. Funny, I had them all at a much lower cap hit and still had $2.2M in cap space, so I went back and raised them all as an exercise to see how much they could spend. Of course, if I was negotiating, I'd still try to sign them for the minimum. I had Rask below $1M, and Subban at $1.75M. Maybe it should be less and a 1yr or even 2yr for Subban. not sure what he is expecting to get. It looks like nobody is willing to pay what he's asking for yet.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 19, 2022 at 9:18 a.m.
Thread: Oilers - Barrie-Foegele Out - PKSubban-VRask-DSprong In
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ceeque84</b></div><div>replacing Barrie with PK makes the defence worse.
In the current market 30+ year old 4th line players should not be signed for more than $850k per. Janmark, Ryan, &amp; Rask are all overpaid on a team that is desperate for as much cap space as they can get.</div></div>

Are you sure about that? Subban played more minutes at 5v5 than Barrie, so that's a pretty good proxy for the quality of competition being harder and he scored more points and had better underlying metrics than Barrie on a much worse team. Subban had less O-zone starts and more neutral and D-zone starts than Barrie. More hits and blocks, and less net giveaways than Barrie. Besides the PP, which Subban has been great in the past, I don't think Barrie is the better D. If you put Subban behind McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and one of Kane, Hyman, or Puljujarvi, he might perform just as well as Barrie. And It could save $2-$3M.

ALL STATS 5V5:

5v5TOI
Subban 16:16
Barrie 15:04

CF%
Subban 50.51
Barrie 50.36

FF%
Subban 50.38
Barrie 47.95

SF%
Subban 50.44
Barrie 48.12

xGF%
Subban 52.34
Barrie 49.51

HDCF%
Subban 55.53
Barrie 52.54

OZSTARTS/60
Subban 7.27
Barrie 8.84

NZSTARTS/60
Subban 11.77
Barrie 11.35

DZSTARTS/60
Subban 7.56
Barrie 7.47

PTS/60
Subban 0.96
Barrie 0.93

iHDCF/60
Subban 0.29
Barrie 0.22

Net giveaway-takeaways / 60
Subban 1.10 Giveaways
Barrie 1.42 Giveaways

Hits/60
Subban 3.02
Barrie 1.47

Blocked Shots / 60
Subban 3.69
Barrie 3.65

I would bet your ‘give-a-****-meter’ plays (hits, blocked shots, takeaways, etc) would even be higher for Subban if he was playing on a contender last season rather than a bottom feeder. And less for Barrie if he wasn’t on a contender.