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Jake_H

AHL Emissary
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Jan. 4, 2017
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Pittsburgh Penguins
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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 1, 2018 at 2:19 p.m.
Thread: Nylander for Guentzel Rust and a 1st
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MadmanFromMadison</b></div><div>So a overpaid bottom 6 player, a player who has mediocre numbers away from Sid (sheary ring a bell) and what would be a late 1st for Nylander? Leafs decline easily</div></div>

Why bag on Gunetzels numbers away from Sid? That accounts for when he was a rookie first breaking into the league, when he was being used as a center or flanking Sheahan last season, or the handful of games Sid missed this season. Next to Sid he's a Top-20 left winger in the NHL, why trade that for yet another right winger and make the logjam even worse?

Oh and as for Sheary he was on a 40 point pace in Buffalo before getting hurt. He certainly isn't the player he looked like at his absolute best next to Sid, but he's no waste of space.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 26, 2018 at 11:12 a.m.
Thread: Crazy thought PIT curious to hear thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>I have no doubt someone out there will trade for him. But there was also someone out there to sign JJ, and trade Taylor Hall.

That clearly has nothing to do with him being flat footed and one of the penguins constantly beaten for fast breaks last year and earlier this year.</div></div>

I'm not concerned about nobody wanting Johnson, I'm concerned Rutherford won't want to trade a guy he just signed to a five year deal who, while not great, hasn't been that bad.

If Maatta is really slow and flat footed and constantly being beaten, why has he only been on the ice for 15 5v5 goals and one powerplay goal all season despite playing almost 20 minutes a night? Maatta is getting shelled on shot attempts because he's only starting off in the offensive zone 40% of the time (lowest of all regular defensemen) and he's been under siege. He needs to play better, but this "he slow" nonsense is an old narrative that needs to go away.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 25, 2018 at 10:16 p.m.
Thread: Crazy thought PIT curious to hear thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>To all fairness to him, the reason he got an NHL call up is because the rest of the team is that bad.
My belief is that either one of those players plays better with actual help next to them.
Pairing Schultz with either will help their game.
I'm not trying to say either would be world class. But you seem to insist there is a huge difference between them and Maatta. Frankly I don't see that. Maatta can't move. He's the guy you say oh crap they just skated by him. He's not physical. I mean exactly what is he bringing to the table where he is the end all be all answer on the 2nd pairing?
3 years ago when the league had a bunch of 35+ players and the game was slower he looked a whole hell of a lot better than he does now. But the game has changed and his foot speed has not.</div></div>

Yeah he's trash, that's why he's consistently produced like a top 4 defenseman every season of his career but one while putting up solid (meaningless) +/- numbers. Did you know Maatta tied Will Butcher and Mattias Ekholm in even strength points last season, and that they were all in the top 60 for defensemen? But he was only good when the league was old and slow.

I actually don't think Maatta is the answer in the 2nd pairing, at least not as the player on ice: you're glossing over the part where I suggested trading him for a better left-handed defenseman. Eye tests aren't worth much, but a 24 year old defenseman with two rings is.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 25, 2018 at 9:22 p.m.
Thread: Crazy thought PIT curious to hear thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>I have stated multiple times before Chad is an AHL level defender. I don't even count him. He really has no business there in any long term role. A game here or there to fill in fine. Relying on him has always been a mistake.

It's really easy to point for goals against and say oh yeah they have been there too. But here is the thing. Those players without JJ are all producing a + for the team. In other words, they are winning the 5 on 5 battles. Not to mention how badly JJ has dragged them all down when paired with them. You go look at the advanced metrics. The common denominator is JJ.
Rikkola will be fine. Half his issue is they started him on the Right side. You don't take a NHL rookie, first time playing on the small ice, at the NHL level and then ask him to play his freaking off side.
I honestly don't know what you have against him. He's fast, mobile, has a decent shot and makes good plays. You rarely hear his name on the ice. That's usually a good sign for a defense man.

Either one of Rikkola or Oleksiak will be fine in the 2nd pairing. What won't be fine is being in the middle of the playoffs and a RHD gets hurt and we are back in this same boat. That will be the end of the season yet again.</div></div>

So your plan is to trade Maatta for a 3rd pairing right-handed defenseman that can pull spot duty on the 2nd pair if Letang or Schultz go down, then play one of two unproven defenseman on the 2nd pairing with the only backup plan being Jack Johnson? Ok. How can you possibly believe Oleksiak or Riikola are now or soon to be 2nd pairing defensemen?

Oleksiak is finally starting to look like he belongs on an NHL rink. He's hitting without giving up on the play, he's almost even on shot attempts despite getting a defensive deployment, and his offense is really coming together (this is already the 2nd most productive season of his career). All that fluff aside there's no reason to rush him now that things are looking up, and having him as a 3rd pairing guy ready to fill in is where he belongs right now.

Riikola on the other hand has nothing to hang his hat on: no points, no excellent defensive plays, the worst shot stats on the team. I get that the transition to small ice takes time, but other than flashes he's shown nothing to suggest he belongs above the press box bubble. Besides preseason he's been entirely uninspiring, and if he still needs to learn the North American game he belongs in the AHL and not on an NHL team in need of points.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 25, 2018 at 3:49 p.m.
Thread: Crazy thought PIT curious to hear thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>Look here is what I know. Every penguins defender except Rikolla is in the +. Even Rikolla is just a -1.
Then there is JJ who is a minus 10.
At some point reality needs to happen. He needs to be sent to the minors or in the press box. Please no one tell me it's not him. It is.
If we can move Maatta for a RHD we should. Oleksiak can play the 2LD, or Rikolla can. I have no problem with either there. As long as they are paired with a decent RHD they will be fine.
One of the issues both of them have had this year is they were pulled down playing with JJ. He's dragged every defense man down with him. Even Letang.
Enough, he sits.
Dumo, Oleksiak and Rikolla is just ifne down the left side. The problem is the hole on the RH side is putting people out of position and it's effecting the play on the other end. There is no one there who can adequately play RHD. No one. Oleksiak is not a natural RHD. He has played there, but never well. He didn't play well last year there, and he's not gonna be an answer there this year. The same is true for Rikolla. He needs to stay on his natural side so he can learn and grow as a player. If you do nothing, you 3RHD becomes Chad R or someone out of place. And that is never gonna work.
So trade Maatta, he's slow anyway.</div></div>

First off Ruhwedel is -8 so claiming that Johnson is the lone sore spot on D in terms of +/- is factually incorrect. Second, Johnson has been on the ice for as many goals against at 5v5 (27) as Dumoulin (28) and Letang (26) at this point, so while he's been a bit worse than them considering his lesser ice time he's still not a disaster. The team hasn't produced a ton with Johnson on the ice, but his shot attempts have been climbing back towards 50% and if there was another lefty defenseman to shoulder the load the Pens could get more out of him. Johnson in the press box or the AHL is not going to happen, and a trade seems very unlikely as well all things considered, so any potential solution that's trying to be realistic almost needs to keep Johnson.

Please explain how Oleksiak or Rikkola are equipped for the 2nd pairing spot long term. They're both playing under 17 minutes a night, Oleksiak is making strides but still has a lot to work on in a sheltered role, and Rikkola has shown almost nothing to warrant a continued roster spot. Oleksiak has played almost the entire season on the right side and he's looked fine. He'd look even better in a bottom pairing role once Schultz returns, so I don't see why there's a rush to flip him back to the left.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 25, 2018 at 1:58 p.m.
Thread: Crazy thought PIT curious to hear thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>JJ has no business on the ice. I'm sorry. He's god awful.
As for Schultz I agree, when he comes back he's a 2RHD. But, you don't know that he's coming back playing at the same level right away. Even last year when hags broke his ankle he did not come back the same player right away. He struggled for about a month because it takes time to really recover. What do you do when you get a struggling Schultz on the RHD as the "fix" to the problem?
It takes 8 weeks for bone to heal which is why they say out for 8 weeks. But the truth is you aren't really "healed" at 8 weeks. You are just able to put weight through it again. People break an ankle and can take 2 years for it to feel normal. When I broke mine I couldn't do basic things like sit indian style for 2 years. So the idea that Schultz comes back and everything is "fine" isn't really a fact. And that's why they need an actual RHD on the 3rd pairing instead of filling in with a player who can play RHD but frankly doesn't play it nearly as well as they do on their more natural side.
Everyone says, oh he can play RHD. But that doesn't mean he plays it well! There was a reason last year they had Chad R. as the 3rd line pairing. Because everyone else there wasn't working out!
It wasn't because Chad is a good RHD. He's clearly AHL level talent.</div></div>

How do you propose the Pens improve the right side then? You can't just add a player, since long term that moves a player to the press box that the organization has shown little inclination to leave there (Oleksiak, Johnson, or Maatta). That means the Pens have to send one of them out to get the RHD, but Oleksiak and Johnson are on new contracts so they're almost certainly not moving. That leaves Maatta, but trading Maatta leaves Oleksiak or Johnson on the 2nd pairing permanently. How do you solve this?
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 25, 2018 at 11:42 a.m.
Thread: Crazy thought PIT curious to hear thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>LHD????? are you kidding me. The have 1 RHD right now and it shows. It was dumb to go into the season with only 2 on the roster. It was just asking for bad things to happen. This team needs a 3RHD. One way or another that is the answer to the issues. None of the players on the roster can play their effectively.</div></div>

Adding a 3rd pairing defenseman and playing him on the 2nd pairing isn't going to magically solve the Pens problems, even if he does happen to be a right handed shot. Long term the Pens have Letang and Schultz down the right side: it would be nice to find a cheap, supremely talented RHD that can fill the gap if/when one of them goes down, but Oleksiak does the job just fine even as a left shot.

The problem lies in the fact that the talent down the left side is lacking even when Letang and Schultz are at 100%. Dumoulin is a fine modern shutdown defenseman who helps Letang be his best, and for that alone he's untouchable, but he doesn't produce. There's Johnson, who everyone already knows everything about and has a perfectly formed opinion on, but having him anchor the 2nd pairing for the next five years isn't ideal. Then there's Maatta. He's consistently underrated and brings a lot more than people give him credit for, but he's never taken the step to lock himself in as a 20-minute a night defenseman that's a threat at both ends of the ice. He's stuck, and maybe what he is now is all he'll ever be, but there's still a lot of value there to work with in a trade.

If the Pens can flip Maatta+ and bring back a borderline top pairing defenseman for the left side, the Pens would be a lot more threatening until Schultz returns and beyond. Unfortunately I suspect GMJR is wed to the idea of Johnson being more than a 3rd pairing defenseman so I don't see the Pens going that route, but its the way they should go. Schultz won't be gone forever, and unless the RHD you get is an immediate AND long term replacement for him, you're just creating a logjam come Spring.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 24, 2018 at 7:19 p.m.
Thread: Crazy thought PIT curious to hear thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>Very fair. What about Schultz coming back? What about the cap management success this would be for 3 more years? Do you think it extends the window of their HOFers?</div></div>

The assets going out don't match the value added to the team. Saad at $3 million is a very nice addition, but we're out a relatively cheap and productive depth defenseman, a cheap forward who still has good upside despite all the clamor, and two 1sts. In all honesty the place that needs the most long term improvement on D is the left side, and Maatta, Sprong, and a pair of 1st rounders ought to open the door on all but a few lefties in the league. Fowler, Slavin, Klefbom, Hanifin, none of them are Sprong and a pair of 1sts better or more valuable than Maatta. I'm not suggesting the Pens go out and make any of those swaps because the price is simply too high, but given the choice between a middle six winger in Saad or any of those defensemen, I'm taking the second option.

The problem is that the package you've put together to get them to retain on Saad carries way too much value. Saad is an excellent complimentary piece on a championship-caliber team, not a game-breaking franchise cornerstone.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 24, 2018 at 5:30 p.m.
Thread: Another trade with LA
Martinez doesn't bring nearly as much tangible offense as Maatta, he's trending towards being more unreliable with the puck defensively, and his once-sterling shot metrics are declining as he ages out of being a legit NHL defender. Now is not the time to hitch your wagon to him as anything other than a reclamation project.

It's an admittedly narrow view, but it helps illustrate that right now Alec Martinez is not going to help his team win games: Jack Johnson has 10 turnovers on the season, Letang leads the Pens with 18, and Martinez is nearly the worst defenseman in the league with 32. Last season he had over 80 giveaways and is on pace to smash that by the end of January. The Kings are bad, but a big part of that is that once-reliable guys like Martinez aren't getting the job done anymore.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2018 at 11:49 a.m.
Thread: fixes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>why would that? Sheahand has 1 goal in 17 games. Brass simply hasn't done anything. He's a UFA that they probably won't resign at the end of the year.
It's a great trade.</div></div>

While I do agree that Cullen needs removing, the Pens can't afford to shred their center depth like that. Faksa is almost 25 and has shown no sign of being anything more than an average 3rd line center who barely scrapes 30 points a season. Yeah he broke even on shot attempts with really bad deployment, but his goalies also had a .946 save percentage when he was on the ice. Faksa isn't a while lot better than Sheahan, who will look a lot better once he's not attached at the hip to Cullen.

Wideman is Ottawa's version of Chad Ruhwedel, so why would you give up Maatta for that? Wideman's averaging less than 14 minutes a night on his career, he doesn't move the puck or bring enough tangible offense to be worthwhile despite consistent power play time, and he's almost 29.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 6, 2018 at 10:56 p.m.
Thread: Wingers for Sid and Geno
Mantha, Athanasiou, Pearson, and Johnson are the best targets from that list.

Mantha would be difficult to pry away from the Wings since they're so desperate for young talent, but he's young enough to still grow into his potential without being a reclamation project just yet. Mantha won't ever drive his own line, but all the Pens really need are great complimentary players.

Athanasiou is vastly overrated by the community, but he's still talented and supremely fast. He'd fit well on the Pens, but the same problems crop up here as with Mantha. Having Rust and Athanasiou on two separate lines means big matchup issues.

Pearson is a solid middle-six forward on a good contract. He's a slumping player on a slumping team, so now would be the perfect time to steal him. He's got the offensive potential to hang with Phil and Geno, plus the defensive abilities to insulate Phil and Geno, all at less that $4 million a season. He's a commitment, but consistently posting 30+ points at evens every year is very promising.

If Tyler Johnson waives for the Pens, you pay the price. He won't make sense long term as a Top-6 winger unless the Pens find a different center on an excellent deal, but he'd be a hell of a 3C.

On a side note, the Pens need to stay away from Namestnikov unless he comes at a bargain rate with retention. Between his inability to produce away from superstars and what I remember from him at the AHL level, he reads way too much as a Russian version of Sheary. He's either going to be a contract anchor, or he'll price himself out next season.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 2, 2018 at 8:36 a.m.
Thread: Trading Brassard Sprong and Jarry
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>Those constant projects on the DLine simply aren't panning out. They pay a lot for an under performing blue line. Hell the last "project" of JJ can't get off this team fast enough. I about screamed seeing they chose him as the OT defenseman. They must have been hit in the head with too many pucks making that decision. He on the ice yet again for the 5 v 5 goal against. I know, he's just really unlucky (eye rolls).

Last thing this team needs is another project on the blue line. They need some guys who got their crap together. You can take on one project and be OK with it. You start adding them up and you have problems not projects.</div></div>

The Pens would be utterly screwed without Schultz and Oleksiak, so don't cry foul on every project defenseman. Honka wouldn't make or break the team, he probably wouldn't even draw into the lineup every night this year, but it never hurts to bring in cheap talent that might be in the wrong situation. Before any upgrades are made, the Pens have Letang, Dumoulin, Maatta, and Oleksiak pulling down four "non-experiment" spots. Adding one more guy to the mix of Johnson and Riikola won't crush the team, and someone will sit once Schultz returns so the Pens aren't banking on these guys forever.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 2, 2018 at 2:29 a.m.
Thread: Trading Brassard Sprong and Jarry
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>awesome</b></div><div>a few years ago jarry was part of the best goaltender tandem in the AHL. I think coming up last year and all the stuff that came with it somehow threw him off. I wouldn't be too quick to trade him but not because of him not having value, just that the value is probably higher to the team than he is as a trade asset.

Completely agree with you on Honka. Not sure why everyone is so high on him on this site.</div></div>

The last three NHL goaltenders I got to see for any length of time at the AHL level were Gibson, Holtby, and Murray. Even when they weren't putting up the numbers, they clearly displayed the raw talent of a goaltender above the AHL level. Jarry has had flashes of it, but they've been few and far between. I'm not expecting him to look like a carbon copy of those top tier NHL starters, but he's in his fourth year in the AHL and he still hasn't done a single thing to impress me.

Goalies are weird, they all develop in different ways, and he's off to a decent start this year despite what has so far been a suspect defense in front of him. The Pens won't recoup the value of the pick they spent on him, he won't add much to a trade, and his highest value is as a cheap NHL backup option in the coming seasons. I just wanted to share my firsthand experiences watching him in the AHL that tell me he doesn't have the cut of an NHL franchise goaltender and he's running low on development time.