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JamesFalk

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Sep. 5, 2016
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Forum: NHL SigningsJul. 24, 2018 at 12:09 p.m.
Thread: Winnipeg Jets signed Jacob Trouba (1 Year / $5,500,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drewjenks</b></div><div><strong>It depends what the player thinks he's worth.</strong>

- If Trouba would have taken $6,250,000 or less for a few years....than I blame the Jets.
- If Trouba was demanding $7,000,000 or more for a few years....than I blame Trouba.
- Anything in between is a dicey situation...and if he just want's to leave regardless...than WTF can ya do besides trade em.

BTW I'm only talking about this year - they obviously would have been better off if they signed him with term a couple years ago.</div></div>

How are you "only talking about this year" when your suggestions literally all read "for a few years"

Anyways the reality here is the arbitrator changed the benchmark of what 24 year old RFA's get paid. NO ONE comparable to Trouba has ever received anywhere near $5.5 million for a single year.

Calvin Dehaan one year deal last season was $3.3 Million, Michael Stone's one year deal $4 million. Chevy $4 million offer was not a low ball. It was the market.

The only age relevant comparables receiving $5.5 million or more all signed for 8 years or more. Ekman-Larsson, Hedman, Ekblad and Fowler. Trouba's numbers aren't remotely in these players class. He's also 2 years younger than everyone mentioned other than Ekblad. Those deals are purchased 6 UFA years, not a single RFA year.

Players within Trouba's classs would include Barrie, Schultz &amp; Parayko. They all got $5.5 million deals...for 3-5 year terms.

This arbitration case was stinking load of horse hockey with the Jets HUGE losers. Whoever the unnamed arbitrator deserves coal in his stocking come Christmas time.
Forum: Expansion DraftJun. 3, 2017 at 6:29 p.m.
Thread: James Falk-Vegas Predictions Part 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OlegP</b></div><div>Cammalleri wont be taken at that salary, they'll be no trade deadline value for him either so not sure of your logic there. Beau Bennett is a younger, cheaper version. Vegas wont need to hit the floor either with Free Agency signings to come.

Vegas taking Charles Hudon would be grounds alone for Bergevin to be fired! He's there only good top forward prospect in the minors but i can see it happening as the Habs value guys like Andrew Shaw instead which is crazy but it's the idiot Canadiens management. Benn, Beaulieu, De La Rose are the other options but if Charles Hudon is exposed i would expect him to be taken in expansion. Huge mistake by Montreal! Im a Habs fan and I sadly can see it happening. This team is schadenfreude to the maximum!

Cam Ward could go if Carolina sweetens the pot somehow with a draft pick as they have many options on forward and defense to grab. Nordstrom is a big bruiser that could help fill out their bottom 6 as he's young.

Murray we've discussed wont happen but if you want to be generic, it's fine. It will be a forward most likely like Carl Hagelin as Fleury almost assuredly will be traded to Calgary or Winnipeg and the Pens need to protect their young cheap dmen to make future runs. Hagelin is overpaid but still useful for Vegas especially to trade at deadline. Speed on the wings is huge in this league.

Scissons or Jankrok. Very tough decision for Nashville there. At first glance you say they protect Scissons for sure but that Jankrok contract is awesome when you can lock a young shutdown centre in for 4 yrs at 2 million per year, he shut the door on Getzlaf when Johansen went down. Interesting to see what Nashville does as they certainly will be protect 4 Dmen much like Anaheim</div></div>

I actually had Bennet selected, but as a 2017 RFA he was one of 11 that I had selected. Selectively going thru this list, Bennet became the deletion for a plethora of reasons. Certain teams like Arizona for instance had no one else of interest whereas other 2017 RFA's were far more talented.

All your arguments are valid. Many teams need to address their expansion problems &amp; have had a year to do so since expansion rules were officially announced, yet 15 days remain. One of the takeaways from creating a mock team is realizing there's only a handful of teams that can take on players in trade without causing other core members of their team to be exposed.

I certainly understand that each GM wants to trade players, but no one's having much success for now. I also understand these same GM's may ask Vegas to cut them a deal. If I'm spending $500 million for a franchise &amp; being provided 30 picks, I'm doing no one favours. Pittsburgh obviously wants Fleury traded. The Jets for instance need a goalie. Add some salary retention &amp; it's a deal made in heaven. Pittsburgh solves it's problem..until you realize the Jets then have to expose Hellebuyck thus the deal can't happen.

There's many of these scenarios &amp; each have considerable repercussions.

Perhaps not all, but there will certainly be a number of teams that end up exposing players many assumed would have been traded.
Forum: Expansion DraftJun. 3, 2017 at 3:40 p.m.
Thread: James Falk-Vegas Predictions Part 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AndrewColvin91</b></div><div>no way in hell St louis will leave vladimir sobotka unprotected</div></div>

As stated, quick protect was used. I do so to literally encourage people like yourself from commenting so they can bring out WHY whatever player mentioned should be protected &amp; then have them insert the logical replacement. Blanket statement aren't helpful &amp; do nothing to encourage dialogue in any facet of life.

I agree Sobotka is a hell of a player. What forward do they expose in his place?

The Blues ran a top 9 in the playoffs consisting of:

Schwartz / Stastny / Tarasenko
Steen / Berglund / Perron
Sobotka / Lehtera / Paajarvi

I'll assume you'd suggest another LW. Perron would be the likely candidate making Vegas decide between him &amp; Paajarvi.

My last mock draft had Paajarvi selected, but he's a 2017 RFA &amp; with Vegas only able to select 10 players not under contract, it becomes a hard decision on whether you use one of these limited selection on him when better 2017 RFA's are available elsewhere.

Would you agree then it's Perron? That leads to the question as to whether he has more value to Vegas than any of the available Blues defensemen. Gunnarson, Bortuzzo &amp; Lindholm are those options.

Input?
Forum: Expansion DraftJun. 3, 2017 at 5:08 a.m.
Thread: James Falk-Vegas Predictions Part 2
My 2nd kick at the cat here. Still using auto protect, so some corrections will need to be made. Well aware of the Fleury/Murray situation, as well as some points brought up in within the comments of my last post, but as noted previously if trying to compare rosters against others out there, beginning with the same variables should help us all better ascertain value &amp; the many complications that come along with Vegas' selections.

I've maximized 2017 RFA's with 10. Huge currency with which Vegas can use as trade chips to build their prospect pool.

I think this is certainly a better roster than my last attempt which used the same reasoning, but this one has identified a few better young players.

<a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/58421">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/58421</a>

There were a number of last second changes due to my preferred roster being two 201-2018 contracts away from being valid. Ended up changing players from Buffalo, New Jersey &amp; Vancouver. Wow... slim picking from these teams!
Forum: Expansion DraftMay 23, 2017 at 8:29 p.m.
Thread: James Falk-Vegas Roster Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bstbullies</b></div><div>I believe ANA will either get Bieka to waive his nmc or buy him out. They will then try to trade one of Vant,Lind,Fowler, or Manson. That way they don't lose something for nothing. This also gives them a way to protect Silf and gain an assest as opposed to losing an assest. They are very high on Silf and Mason from what I've seen. <strong>It makes to much sense for them to trade a Dman, than lose a dman outright.</strong></div></div>

It's quite possible that a few teams may try to get players to waive their NMC's, but as I outlined in the opening post I've tried not to overcomplicate matters with that factor &amp; simply concentrate on what may be available. Anaheim is one of of many teams facing tough decisions &amp; also the most talked about likely for nothing more than being alphabetically first &amp; people immediately realizing the complications facing them. I don't mind addressing that here though.

Regardless of 7-3-1 or 4-4-1, the Ducks face losing a quality player. 7-3-1 doesn't really help as it opens the door for Vatanen, Fowler, Depres, Stoner &amp; Manson to all be exposed. Sure it allows Rackell &amp; Silferberg to be protected, but then who is the final forward protected? Cogliano? Vermette? Surely every defensemen previously listed has far more value.

So we're back to 4-4-1 with either Rackell or Silverberg exposed &amp; also with Fowler or Manson. Still looking lousy for the Ducks.

This brings us to your point. Getting Bieksa to waive his NMC allows all of Rackell, Silvferberg &amp; Manson to be protected. Sounds great, as Vegas likely doesn't choose him anyways &amp; rather choose Depres from the Ducks under this scenario. Should Bieksa say no, he could always get bought out. The Ducks have no shortage of defensmen with Manson, Theordore &amp; Montour all vying for more ice time.

I doubt they trade, as a buy out is a better option &amp; any trades prior to the draft have to factor in the expansion plans of other teams, many of which are facing the same tough decision the Ducks are in. Certain teams just can't add another forward, others have no room for defensemen. Some have no room either way.

I'll concede that of all the talk around the NHL of getting NMC's waived (the Jets &amp; Toby Enstrom has gotten a lot of talk on the Winnipeg boards) it seems as the Anaheim decision is one that makes the most sense. No fear that he'd be selected, &amp; even if he was they'd be doing Anaheim a favour. Ducks need to shed salary &amp; need to create more playing time for their defensive prospects. Further they are very deep defensively, unlike the Jets, &amp; have substantial options available to them on the back end.

What do you think the likelihood of Anaheim asking to waive NMC? How about a buyout? Do you agree a trade is the least likely for the reasons I outlined?
Forum: Expansion DraftMay 15, 2017 at 3:41 p.m.
Thread: James Falk-Vegas Roster Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PaulDunnill</b></div><div>

Sorry, I should have gone into more detail. I'm new to this feature today and I am just now going through comments so .....

I do believe Anaheim will switch to 7, 3, 1 because of their D depth. I think with Getzlaf and Perry getting close to past prime you need to look to the future which should be Silfverberg and Rakell up front. They seem to have plenty of D depth to be exposed there instead.
As a Jets fan, what are your thoughts on Trouba? Will you lose him?</div></div>

Trouba had a lights out season. See linked chart.
<a href="http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=2346779" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=2346779</a>

He's in ULTRA ELITE company &amp; the Jets will want a kings ransom to part with him.

All recent reports &amp; interviews have him happy in Winnipeg, but until that long term deal is signed, the rumours will persist of him wanting to play elsewhere.

It's always possible he gets dealt. One of Trouba's biggest concerns was playing time behind Byfuglien &amp; Myers. Myers season long injury allowed Trouba to flourish &amp; Myers is expected to return at 100% next season. No NHL team can afford all three in their line-up.

My personal thought has been the Jets are waiting until the Trouba situation resolves itself either via long term contract or trade. Until that happens we have unquestionably the best cumulative top 3 RD's in the league, with former AHL all star Postma in the wings &amp; the recent signing of Tucker Poolman , UND's player of the year &amp; a 2017 Tobey Baker finalist.

Despite the right side strength, the Jets left side if among the leagues weakest. Josh Morrissey looks to be the real deal but after that it's an aging Enstrom &amp; literally nothing more than two LD prospects in their entire system, Swedish 7th rounder Sami Niku who just signed today &amp; 1st round project Logan Stanley who is years away from playing NHL hockey. Jets need to make a deal for an LD desperately. Until then one's of the leagues worst defensemen in Mark Stuart &amp; perennial AHL'ers Melchiori &amp; Chiarot are the only other options.

As outlined my sole interest in the expansion draft is the opportunity to be trading from the NHL's deepest prospect pool at forward for a top end LD from Vegas' picks. Any of De Haan, Manson or Ouellet would look great in a Jets uniform. Lot's of choices for Vegas be it ultra high end prospects like Kyle Connor, blue chippers like Roslovic or others like Dano, Armia, Petan, Lemieux could be available for the right price.

NHL Award weekend should be the most exiting it's even been.
Forum: Expansion DraftMay 15, 2017 at 2:21 p.m.
Thread: James Falk-Vegas Roster Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PaulDunnill</b></div><div>

They will expose Manson I believe, they are pretty solid at D without him, but I can't see Silvferberg or Rakell being exposed...</div></div>

If you can't see this happening, you must have a good argument to explain how you prevent this from occurring.

How about sharing it? Why post if you can't be bothered to share your rationale?

Perry, Getzlaf, Kesler, Bieksa have NMC's. Lindholm is elite. That's five. Vatanen, Fowler are easy adds forcing a 4-4-1. Now you're down to protecting one of Rackell or Silfverberg.

Hey it's entirely possible Anaheim goes 7-3-1. As a Jets fan I encourage that. Anything that's handing Vegas high quality 2nd pairing LD's is fine by me. The only interest I have in expansion is in Winnipeg trading for any one of the surplus of defensemen made available to the Knights. If Anaheim wants to add to that list I'm sure Las Vegas won't be complaining.
Forum: Expansion DraftMay 15, 2017 at 12:57 a.m.
Thread: James Falk-Vegas Roster Predictions
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bstbullies</b></div><div>
LGK doesn't select DSP because he has zero value </div></div>

New Jersey has positioned themselves quite well for expansion. No NMC's to worry about. They can choose completely what is in their best interests. Further with that in mind, the players they'll expose with current contracts is limited to just Callmalleri, Smith-Pelly, Lovejoy, Prout &amp; Loov. The few 2017 RFA's they have to expose aren't in the realm of players like De Haan, Oullet, Mason, Oleksiak, Gaunce, Andrighetto. Beau Bennet isn't considerably better, but choosing him limits other options for a more premium player.

Perhaps Vegas selects Cammalleri to help hit the cap floor, although nothing so severe should be needed. At 34 he's still playing great two-way hockey. Still an elite defensive player &amp; would be a great team captain.
Forum: Expansion DraftMay 14, 2017 at 4:34 a.m.
Thread: Auto protect feature
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bstbullies</b></div><div>My immediate thoughts are Vegas won't select that many expiring contracts. I also think Caronlina signs Darling and exposes Ward/Lack. The Pens will also make a deal to get both Fleury and Murray protected. Just my two cents.</div></div>

Totally agree. I'd be surprised if they select a single 2017 UFA.

A few notes:
1) No way LVN select 17 forwards &amp; only 10 defensemen. With so many quality defensemen available they should be grabbing near the maximum allowed &amp; then dealing this excess for young prospects to stock their farm team.
2) Way too many 2017 UFA's. See above.
3) Not enough 2017 RFA's. They will be Vegas biggest currency in terms of building their team
4) Hickey from the Islanders? De Haan is likely the best player being made available to Vegas. Unless you think Islanders plan to protect him over Hamonic, I see no scenario that doesn't have De Haan both available &amp; selected. Hoping the Jets work out a trade for him over the course of expansion draft weekend.
Forum: Expansion DraftMay 11, 2017 at 3:05 p.m.
Thread: Third time is a charm (includes my protections)
I don't think your draft is at all realistic.

It's a good team for simply icing a team, but there's much more involved.

Not only does Vegas not yet have a current roster, they have no farm system. Every one of the 30 players they select is eligible for waivers &amp; will be far too good to ever clear. If they hold on to all 30 leading to the declaration of opening day rosters, they'll have 23 players in their entire organization plus whatever they draft this season. They need to trade 7 players literally during the expansion draft will the sole purpose of trading them for a dozen prospects. You've drafted one 2017-2018 RFA. You should be grabbing 10 to maximize trade value. Your UFA selections are a waste as well.

If that wasn't bad enough, you selected Hutchinson. As a Jets fan, our fan base would jump for joy losing someone whose only place on this seasons roster was to meet the expansion draft criteria for exposure.

Here's my last one. <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/58421">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/58421</a>