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JamesJN16
Go Leafs Go
Member Since
Jun. 17, 2019
Favourite Team
Toronto Maple Leafs
2nd Favourite Team
Vancouver Canucks
Forum Posts
66
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0.0
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 22, 2019 at 2:40 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs 20-21 Rough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>christ30</b></div><div>You also didnt take in that the cap will be raised</div></div>
Yeah, if it gets raised, this definitely alters the equation -- I don't think there was a raise, if any this season from last though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 22, 2019 at 2:40 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs 20-21 Rough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>Difference is, the team is getting a NHL player for free from the FA market. The true way to win is to draft and develop, but most teams think you can win a cup from picking up overpaid veterans in FA. I don't know where this philosophy came from, but it needs to go.</div></div>
Perhaps its the competitive element of the UFA market, but I think Pittsburgh is setting themselves up for failure post-Crosby era with that Tanev deal; same thing with Philly and Hayes. I can't wait to see whos going to overpay for Hall -- can't seem to get a good read on his stock...won the Hart in '18, but now seems to be massively underperforming.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 22, 2019 at 2:36 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs 20-21 Rough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>I imagine Johnsson or Kerfoot are gone before Kapanen though</div></div>
I think the opposite! I think Kapanen will go before Johnsson and Johnsson before Kerfoot.. Not to throw shade, but I think Kapanen's value is really only his speed....his shooting/shot selection is pretty terrible, hes not particularly physical and his playmaking is well.....non...existent...
Johnsson's got great physicality, esp on the forecheck, something we need, OK playmaking, OK shot selection, I see him as more well rounded than Kap.
Kerfoot, I havent watched too much of, but he comes across as a younger, less skillful, less physical 3C. Clear downgrade from Kadri
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 22, 2019 at 2:33 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs 20-21 Rough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>Perhaps a 1 year deal with lower AAV would really be the only option, but I don't even think Muzzin would want to do that. He could get upwards of 8 Million in the market, and most teams have no problem offering a 30 YO 7 years for some reason.</div></div>
I think the UFA market is insane, it really makes no sense -- Kevin Hayes is a great example of that. UFA's want term and money and presumably have the record to justify it....RFA's want term and money and are being paid for their potential, which is fine, but when Dubas offers AM34 11 million over 5, he's giving him a free pass into UFA........in his early 20s.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 22, 2019 at 2:32 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs 20-21 Rough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>For a guy like Jeremy Bracco though, I don't know if he would be interested unless the 3 years takes him to UFA.</div></div>
for sure, bracco is a beast its a matter of finding him the time to play on the leafs, I can see a move where we ship kapanen as minor cap relief to tweak with cap space and bracco might slot in the lineup there. Unlikely kappy moves this year, possibly next, and very likely the year after on the last year of his deal
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 22, 2019 at 2:30 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs 20-21 Rough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>Not sure how Muzzin would feel. I imagine he wants the longest deal possible simply because after the contract is over, he will be out of his prime. His next contract is the money he will have for the rest of his life.</div></div>
Yeah, I totally get that. He "might" take a hometown discount, but I highly doubt it. In an ideal world I think Leafs would like to offer 4 years with decent AAV, but we're capstrapped because of 40mil locked up in 4 forwards...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 22, 2019 at 2:28 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs 20-21 Rough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>Charlie Lindgren signed a 3 year deal at 750k even after he played in the NHL</div></div>
this guy gets it, bracco might have higher upside than Lindgren, but no mins in NHL, hard to justify getting more than 1x their entry lvl deal
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 22, 2019 at 2:26 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs 20-21 Rough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>No player is gonna sign a 3 year deal at under 800k off their entry deal. Do you think braccos agent is insane?</div></div>
I don't think he would be on the leafs with the depth they have if thats the case. Leafs probably trade his rights if he cant get a 1-1.25m bridge. He's also never logged NHL mins, so hard to justify giving him a bridge on anything more than 1.25
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 22, 2019 at 2:25 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs 20-21 Rough
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>You aren't getting Muzzin that cheap. I imagine it will be something along of the lines of
8x8
7x7.5
6x7.25
5x7
4x6.5</div></div>
I think the most likely for leafs would be 4x6.5 out of your options. 4.5 gives him a minor raise, and i dont see him taking on anything less than a 3 year term; maybe 6 over 3? would require more tweaking...
Forum:
NHL Trades
Jul. 1, 2019 at 7:07 p.m.
Thread:
(TOR/COL) - Kadri, Rosén 2020 3rd for Kerfoot, Barrie 2020 6th
THIS IS AMAZING. RETAINED SALARY ON BARRIE?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 28, 2019 at 5:33 p.m.
Thread:
Bridge deal
Expensive bridge......I will be very unhappy if it happens.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 28, 2019 at 1:16 p.m.
Thread:
Heres to all the haters who said KapJohn wouldnt be under 4 mil
My guess was Johnsson for 3.5 x4 Kap for 3 over 3
Also pitched that JOhnsson would not go to arb and neither kap or john would get offersheeted
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 10:02 p.m.
Thread:
Pay the Man Mitc- Kasperi Kapanen
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Oilers Trade <strong>DOES NOT</strong> work for both parties.
Not even close lol</div></div>
tell that to a jesse who has publically said he wants out of Edmonton. Better to trade his rights than lose him for nothing.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 3:19 p.m.
Thread:
A Brave New World
Calgary and Vancouver trades are a no go. Edmonton looks viable.
Vancouver values stetcher pretty highly as their 2nd pairing RHD after Tanev.
Calgary trade is very unlikely to happen given our valuation of Marner and theirs of Tkachuk.
Edmonton deal looks pretty okay to me.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 3:17 p.m.
Thread:
The Next Sedin Twins
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Whirr</b></div><div>Brown had 20 goals, Nylander is still in the minors on a pretty thin buffalo team.</div></div>
Leafs need to add more to the trade. Nylander has way higher upside than Brown, but hasn't really shown it yet.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 1:07 p.m.
Thread:
What I think will happen
Out of all the trades you posted, I think the only realistic option is the Florida trade.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2019 at 5:24 p.m.
Thread:
Draft trade tonight
Trade looks a little heavy for what the Oilers would be giving up to get Eriksson. I would anticipate Lucic and a pick instead of two.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2019 at 5:22 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs Fan living in Anaheim
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mytduxfan</b></div><div>Exactly!
Even adding Kapanen wouldn't be enough. We'd be losing our only RD to add a RW. We're stacked on the RW. It's just a terrible trade all-around and doesn't take into consideration our needs.
I agree with your assessment of Manson. I think he tends to get overrated because of "advanced stats". At his best, he's a gritty, borderline #2 willing to make hits and fight if called upon. However, more often than not, he's an inconsistent 2nd pairing D-man. He'll still make those hits and fight if necessary, but he's prone to mistakes.
However, I think what makes Manson so attractive is that he's a RD with a rare skillset (size, willing to fight and hit, mobility) and on a beauty of a contract. Not many teams have a player that does what Manson does. He's very valuable asset. I agree he often gets talked about as if he's an out-and-out top pairing D-man. He's not, but he's worth more than 2 cap dumps and late 2nd round pick. Given that he's our only RD, I don't think I'd trade him for anyone realistically available in TOR and I certainly wouldn't move him for a package.
The position of a 1st does matter to some degree. Regardless, would you trade your only RD and a player with a skillset that is very hard to replace for 2 cap dumps and 1st round pick next year? Forget the cap dumps, I wouldn't do it for the 1st alone.
The offer is quite frankly ridiculous and doesn't consider our team needs at all.</div></div>
To summarize what has been said so far and my contribution:
I do think the deal has potential, specifically if the leafs increase what they are giving to Anaheim for Manson. Manson's greatest value (aside from his ability on the ice as a well rounded offensive d-man) is his cap hit and term. Dubas has indicated that he prefers to trade for players that have term on their contracts, so Manson fits the bill there as well as being a RHD.
Now, in terms of add ons, I do think there is very little difference between a 1st round or a 2nd round pick in shallow draft years. If we are talking about a deep draft year (which unless I am mistaken, 2020 will likely not be), then the difference between a 1st and a 2nd becomes more salient.
Perhaps something by way of increasing the deal to make it more "fair" for both parties could entail adding on another 1st or 2nd round pick and/or throwing in someone like Connor Brown.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2019 at 5:19 p.m.
Thread:
Melnyk Out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claebom</b></div><div>These stats only track partial seasons, so they're not very accurate. But breaking them down and comparing relative is probably fine... In 2018-2019's 15 or so games they tracked, Ceci maintained possession on entries nearly as much as Maatta, but maintained possession on exits much more. Their entry defense was relatively similar. However, Maatta dominated in only one area: shot contributions. In 2017-2018, in Ceci's 25 games and Maatta's 54 that were tracked, they had comparable entries, Ceci had better exit percentages and did a good job of limiting entries from the opposing team per 60, but Maatta did have better numbers outside of that. In 2016-2017, Ceci was better across the board apart from shot contribution. Shocking that a guy relied upon to only play the defensive zone had lesser offensive numbers than a guy starting more in the offensive zone (and on a much better team). So no, these numbers further establish that these are both guys who are inconsistent from year to year and that their defensive abilities are a shot in the dark. Maatta is locked up on a contract much like Ceci's will be; it's arbitration so of course he went high and the Sens went low. The 3rd party arbitrator settled at $4.3M while Maatta makes $4.1 for the next three years. I.e. Comparable. By this rationale, Maatta is no better than Ceci and his trade is market value for a player of Ceci's caliber. Don't get me wrong, Ceci is not very good... but market price is market price.
I do agree that Puljujarvi deserves a chance and that he's probably better than what he's shown, but let's pump the brakes on his value here. He's shown nothing except being drafted high. He's not much better than Kahun is, although he is younger. Direct comparisons to Yakupov are early, but at least Yak was putting up 30 point seasons vs Puljujarvi not being able to crack the weakest forward group in the league.</div></div>
I strongly agree with your analysis. I do think that market value on Ceci is high primarily based on who is available for trade or via trade agency. Ceci is comparable to Maatta, and I think arguing that one is better than the other is splitting hairs at this point.
For Puljujarvi, you hit it spot on. All he has going for him is that he was drafted high, and he has not proven himself at the NHL level yet. Couple that with the statements he made about wanting out of Edmonton, if he is to go anywhere, I would imagine any GM worth his salt willing to trade for him would put him on a bridge deal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2019 at 3:33 p.m.
Thread:
Leafs Fan living in Anaheim
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>awatt</b></div><div>For someone living in anaheim, you should know Eaves isn't playing anymore either. If you want Marleau traded, Kapanen will also be added to the trade. This isn't helping anaheim with the rebuild at all
either.</div></div>
Forgot about eaves... ltir I believe. Could make a Marleau swap for eaves
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2019 at 3:15 p.m.
Thread:
Melnyk Out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurgerBoss</b></div><div>Hold up since when Ceci and Condon has had actual trade value</div></div>
Ceci is being shopped as we speak, and I modelled the trade after the Maata Kahun + pick swap. Condon is traded because he is clearly an upgrade from Sparks.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2019 at 2:59 p.m.
Thread:
Honour the Sedins
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>canucks_Fan_53</b></div><div>oh man... where to start.
- DP is an RFA, needs a deal, RS has a high cap hit. any money VGK save for trading miler gets eaten up but DP and RS. VGK says no
- SB was aquired for a 2nd rd pick, i don't think his stock has improved for that return NSH says no
- BR >40 points LE <20 points. OTT says no
- JM had a good year, he may even be worth a 1st rd pick, but not a lottery pick. BUF likely says no
- WSH likely doesnt have cap to take on BS they say no</div></div>
I can get on board with your comment on the vegas trade, SB might be worth a pick instead of two. I would do a 3rd or 4th at worst. Possibility of the BR/LE trade working out as a 1 for 1, I might stick by that, sweetener on either side. JM trade is akin to what Canucks did years ago with Schneider for what would be Horvat. Washington I think can make room for Sutter, they have a real need for a faceoff guy.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2019 at 2:57 p.m.
Thread:
Honour the Sedins
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>I’m not typically high on tanev but I think that leafs deal is fair and realistic. Will Marleau waive for Vancouver? I think only if they buy him out.</div></div>
I see tanev as being better than zaitsev, so its an upgrade in that sense. But Dubas has said that he prefers to trade for guys that have term, so there is some predictability with the cap situation.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 21, 2019 at 1:52 p.m.
Thread:
Dubas The Process 20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kesselysnipes81</b></div><div>I think that would be reasonable. should be an exciting weekend</div></div>
for sure buddy! Looking forward to see what leafs do in the draft.....maybe a trade!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 20, 2019 at 4:41 p.m.
Thread:
Dubas The Process 20
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>kesselysnipes81</b></div><div>Love this Minus the Vancouver trade.. You didn't re-sign hutton cus you had no space.. I would say johnsson signs for 1.5M less, puljujarvi signs a much cheaper bridge of say 1.5-1.8M, the canucks trade doesnt happen so we still have Zaitsev for the 2nd line (or a replaceable D) which pushes Benning into Holl's spot and holl out.. I think it still works within the Cap.. overall love it but don't need the Canucks trade I don't think. Zaits wants out so just assume another 4.5M RHD to take his place would be my assumption.</div></div>
thoughts on zaitsev and a second for tanev...?
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