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JeffGorton

Jeff Gorton
Member Since
Oct. 28, 2020
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 24 at 4:44 p.m.
Thread: Moving up to 1st overall
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SlickWilly</b></div><div>I guess it really depends on what's gonna happen with that Calgary pick. My favorite pick value tool is puckpedia, and according to them, a fair trade up from 5 to 1 would be something like

SJ Sharks receive : 2024 5th overall, 2024 6th overall, 2024 58th overall
MTL receives : 2024 1st overall

If you think whoever holds the 6th overall pick would accept Barron, Xhekaj squared, and calgary's 2025 1st rounder for it, then its probably of fair value. I think the Sharks in this specific instance would probably prefer more quality over quantity, especially if youre trading the 1st overall pick</div></div>

Those pick value charts always take the average value of the pick. No context between how strong a draft is. Reality is, the difference between Celebrini and Parekh for example is much smaller than traditional difference between 1st overall and 5th. These charts also dont take into consideration the potential of a player during the draft discussions. They just take the data the how many NHL players come from this pick and create a value for it. In you draft in the top 10, you arent drafting for just a bog standard NHL player, you are drafting who you believe will be the best NHL player and for many teams, based on the positions of need. Those values arent taken into consideration when calculating a picks value.

An example of the pick chart not working is the Sharks making a trade with the Yotes in 2022. The trade was 27, 34,and 45 for 11. Sharks ended up getting essentially a late 2nd in extra value but got smoked in the trade because they couldve had Denton Mateychuk, Rutger McGroarty or Jonathan Lekkerimaki with that pick instead of the bums they drafted. The pick chart would say the Sharks won that trade. Everyone else says they lost it very badly.

This trade i proposed gives the sharks 4 things

a top 5 pick to draft a forward of slightly lesser value (Catton over Celebrini isnt that large of a gap) or a Dman like Parekh
a #4/#5 D man right now (Xhekaj has been on the 2nd pair for months now and is actually succeeding there with Savard)
A former 1st rounder with NHL experience in Barron
And a late 1st the next year

The Sharks have 1 future D man on their roster in Shakir Mukhamadullin. Theyll be garbage next year as well giving them another top 5 pick. (There is 1 Dman projected to go top 10 next year and the drop off for Dmen after Hensler is crazy).

Celebrini isnt a franchise changing player. Hes amazing but the gap in potential between him and Parekh is much smaller than then gap between a top 5 forward in 2025 and a Dman in 2025. Argubaly, there are 2 players just as good as him in Hagens and Martone. Add in Misa, Frondell, McQueen and Ryabkin, youve got 6 elite forwards
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 22 at 10:21 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 18 at 3:08 p.m.
Thread: Positive offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Windjammer</b></div><div>This is the only year in Matheson's career that he's been near 50 points, so it isn't a regular occurrence for him. He also not going to get PP1 and top pairing time in Winnipeg like he does in Montreal, so he'll most likely revert to the ~25 to 30 point, one way player he's always been.

It's just not worth moving a 1st for a player like that. If the Jets spend that pick, it needs to be for something that actually fills a need like a stay at home RHD as opposed to more unneeded depth on the left side.</div></div>

Hes been a 50 point player for 2 years now and would actually get 1st pp time. Jets dont have that great of a forward group. Ehlers, Connor, Scheifeile, Morrissey, Matheson. Jets only have a 19% pp. Its average and not much better than the Habs, with much better forwards. Matheson easily slots in. Also the Jets do not need a RHD. Pionk and Demelo are fine RHD. Roy is in FA. Jets need goals and offense. Matheson gives them that