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KUUUCH

KUUUCH
Member Since
Feb. 19, 2019
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Tampa Bay Lightning
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Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 19, 2019 at 7:05 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 19, 2019 at 2:53 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 17, 2019 at 5:17 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 17, 2019 at 2:49 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 17, 2019 at 1:56 a.m.
First of all, I said Mittelstadt (who I'd prefer) or Nylander ... And I'd rather send a 1st or a top fwd prospect over Sergy or Foote. But Risto (w/ 2m retained) & Mittlestadt for Cally, 1st/Katchouk, Miller? Send it.

Has anyone on here even attempted to make the cap work for Tampa next season?? :shakehead Here are some scenario examples to understand the logic of the trade...

Scenario 1: Callahan doesn't get traded or bought out. Let's assume we don't resign anyone besides Coburn @ 1m cap hit. Aside from keeping Cally, this would clear the most cap without making a trade.
Result: Assuming the cap ceiling is 83m next year, that'd leave us with 6.36m cap space to resign Pointer (which most believe is too low), and that's just accounting for 12 fwds, 6 dmen, 2 goalies...

Scenario 2: Callahan gets bought out. Like scenario 1, Coburn resigns @ 1m cap hit. This would leave us with 9.5m cap space (which most believe is enough, but not enough for other RFAs).
Result: 18 skater & 2 goalies get locked up under the cap ceiling, and Cally's buyout carries a 1.56m cap hit for 2020-21, then the buy out penalties are over (Good deal if you ask me).

Scenario 3: Callahan gets traded (TB doesn't retain any of his cap hit), no other contracts come back to TB, and we'd have 12.16m in cap space (enough to re-sign Paquette and/or Erne, along with Pointer ofc), which is the big objective. Re-signing Point isn't the challenge, as I showed in the first 2 scenarios... Resigning the other expiring RFAs, on top of Point, is the challenge.
Result: Tampa trades an asset (value unknown, I'd predict 4th rd pick - 1st rd pick), but clears up even more space for our RFA's.

Scenario 4: Callahan gets traded (TB doesn't retain any of his cap hit) along with a 1st rd pick.... BUF sends back Ristolainen (w/ 2m retained).
Result: Leaves us with 9.76m in cap space (likely only be enough to re-sign Point), which would be 12 fwds, 6 dmen, 2 goalies.

Scenario 5: Callahan gets traded (TB doesn't retain any of his cap hit) along with a 1st rd pick & J.T. Miller.... BUF sends back Ristolainen (w/ 2m retained) and Mittlestadt.
Result: Leaves us with 14.1m in cap space... Plenty for Pointer, Erne, Paquette, which would put us at 14 fwds under the ceiling (assuming 2 crunch players come up)... Also puts us in better cap situation coming into 2020-21...

Ristolainen @ 3.4m for the next 3 years is the highlight of the trade. With the NTC stockpile in Tampa, Miller is the unfortunate odd man out. If you think the asking price for Cally should be high, just check the buyout penalty and ask yourself again. 1st round pick tops.

Breaking the trade down: Personally I think Mittlestadt is pretty close, if not higher than Miller regarding trade value (Mittlestadt could break out any year now). I think Cally & a 1st for Risto @ 3.4m is a no brainer. What's the problem?

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PenGoater99</b></div><div>Tampa gets fleeced in this deal.

What a stupid trade</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LGRW_</b></div><div>people clearly don't see ristolainen's value, and the fact callahan's contract will kill this team</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hedman77</b></div><div>I agree Ristolainen is underrated but adding Sergachev is a little excessive. Same with Nylander. Miller and Callahan obviously isn't enough for Ristolainen but I think Sergachev is bridging the gap too much</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wojme</b></div><div>That's a hard no from me</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMTD</b></div><div>Betterall would try to keep a straight face as his innards are jumping for joy. What a steal. Sergachev is a young Ristolainen at a bargain price, Miller fills in the #2 center spot, Callahan may be just what the Sabres need to settle the team down after tough losses. Let's make a deal! :cheers</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sabres89</b></div><div>Nah, its not a killer, its one year at 5.8. But you dont take it for free, if he is having trouble producing on a stacked tampa team, hes gonna look like leino or rob niedermeyer here. I dont like taking a left handed d back, we have lhd that should be ready. And for some reason we are retaining on ristolainen. Take the retention away and im still looking for a better deal. Retaining to help the best team in the league, that happens to be in our division, sign their players, thats just terrible.</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 16, 2019 at 3:13 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 16, 2019 at 1:55 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 15, 2019 at 5:46 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 15, 2019 at 5:33 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rangsey</b></div><div>Dont care about the pick. I care about losing Katchouk for nothing.</div></div>

Idk the fwd prospect core is already pretty tight. There's basically a waiting list, I honestly think one of them needs to go at some point or they're gonna end of leaving later for nothing or they're gonna stay in Syracuse for way longer than they needed to.

If we trade Cally this off-season:
Roster fwds locked up for next season: Stamkos, Kuch, Miller, Gourde, Johnson, Palat, Killorn, Cirelli, Joseph. (9 fwds)
RFA roster fwds this off-season: Point, Paquette, Erne, Martel. (4 fwds)

If we resign all 4 RFAs, we're already at 13 fwds, so at least 1 more year before Katchouk could reserve his NHL spot (unless TBL injuries lead to a call up).
But if we assume Pointer is the only RFA that resigns, that leaves us w 10/12 NHL fwds. In this case, if I'm ranking the AHL fwds in "NHL-readiness", I've got Barre-Boulet as the clear #1, Mitchell Stephens #2, Raddysh #3, Volkov #4, Yan #5, Katchouk #6. And if Verhaeghe resigns, he'd take over #2.

If we assume Point, Paquette, Erne, Volkov, Stephens all resign by 2020-21, the locked up fwds would be Stammer, Kuch, Pointer, Johnson, Killorn, Palat, Gourde, Miller, Barre-Boulet, Raddysh, Stephens, Erne, Paquette, Volkov. (14 fwds).

Katchouk would crack the lineup in 2020-21 if Pointer is the only RFA fwd that resigns (unlikely). All it takes is a breakout AHL year for things to change, but as of now, losing Katchouk to shed Cally isn't something I'd lose sleep over, but quite the opposite.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 15, 2019 at 5:00 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMTD</b></div><div>That was most enlightening. I know I so not have all of hockey knowledge so I try to glean information from contributors. I rarely disagree with comments and try to find common ground or areas of agreement (well unless I post a trade like Reinhart and Scandella for Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson and listen to the Buffalo contingent explain to me how Buffalo is getting ripped off). I know a contributor as you knows your team better than I ever would, so I listen. TBH, I do not share my fellow Sabre contingent’s view of Ristolainen. I do not think he is as bad as you initially indicated, but I did not think his future was a bright as you say it may be. That is why I thought maybe Ristolainen was not part of the trade discussion but rather Bogosian. He is steady RHD defenseman more in the mold of Colburn, but with a little more offensive skill, who could be had for a lot less than many other defensemen. I jumped to the conclusion that Betterall may have been targeting Sergachev and may have been offering Bogosian, Beaulieu (to take the LHD roster spot of Sergachev) and a first for Callahan and Sergachev (I thought because his performance level dipped from last year, maybe BriseBois would consider trading him). Then I speculated Bogosian, Girgensons and first for Callahan and Gourde or Miller. Girgensons being an inexpensive version of Callahan, Betterall retaining Bogosian’s salary would help. Finally, I thought, Bogosian (50% retention) and Girgensons for Callahan a roster player of your choice and a first. I know a first may sound great but it is really only an early second, and the addition of Bogosian plus cutting the cap may equal a first, but I may have been dreaming here, I guess it all depends on how much value Bogosian has at half his salary. Finally, go Bolts, I hope BriseBois can do half as well as Yzerman. So far I am really please with Betterall but he inherited a mess. I posted a Sabres' team and even though they are trending toward last place

That was most enlightening. I know I so not have all of hockey knowledge so I try to glean information from contributors. I rarely disagree with comments and try to find common ground or areas of agreement (well unless I post a trade like Reinhart and Scandella for Nugent-Hopkins and Larsson and listen to the Buffalo contingent explain to me how Buffalo is getting ripped off). I know a contributor as you knows your team better than I ever would, so I listen. TBH, I do not share my fellow Sabre contingent’s view of Ristolainen. I do not think he is as bad as you initially indicated, but I did not think his future was a bright as you say it may be. That is why I thought maybe Ristolainen was not part of the trade discussion but rather Bogosian. He is steady RHD defenseman more in the mold of Colburn, but with a little more offensive skill, who could be had for a lot less than many other defensemen. I jumped to the conclusion that Betterall may have been targeting Sergachev and may have been offering Bogosian, Beaulieu (to take the LHD roster spot of Sergachev) and a first for Callahan and Sergachev (I thought because his performance level dipped from last year, maybe BriseBois would consider trading him). Then I speculated Bogosian, Girgensons and first for Callahan and Gourde or Miller. Girgensons being an inexpensive version of Callahan, Betterall retaining Bogosian’s salary would help. Finally, I thought, Bogosian (50% retention) and Girgensons for Callahan a roster player of your choice and a first. I know a first may sound great but it is really only an early second, and the addition of Bogosian plus cutting the cap may equal a first, but I may have been dreaming here, I guess it all depends on how much value Bogosian has at half his salary. Finally, GO BOLTS. I love Yzerman as a player and even more as a GM. I hope BriseBois can do as well. I am really happy with Betterall but he inherited a mess. If they give decent contracts to their RFA's they will only have$8 to $11KK to sign UFA's, which is rather ironic that if Callahan is traded to Buffalo, it delays any possible playoff run by another year or more.</div></div>

So you think Risto has essentially peaked? I'd take Bogosian but would prefer Risto tbh. Realistically, what trade do you think Buff would send? Like would it be Risto or Bogo?
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 15, 2019 at 4:44 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 14, 2019 at 10:19 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 14, 2019 at 9:11 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMTD</b></div><div>Thank you for taking the time to express your point of view. I agree with your comments, If I can whisper in your ear, I hope Betterall can get a good deal from a GM who thinks more highly of Ristolainen than I do. This I know DATM destroyed the Buffalo defense, and Ristolainen on any other team would not play over 20 minutes of ice time in any game. He is not as good as Tory Krug and I think if we have this conversation next year, Buffalo fans will rank Montour ahead of him. I agreed with your first assessment and I agree with you now as well.</div></div>

No problem, I love discussing hockey with other knowledgeable fans that know to how to converse without being a jack@ss lmao.

Who knows what the NHL GMs think of Risto, but after reading what the Capfriendly community has to say, it sounds like he's got more than enough hype &amp; value attached to his name. So I wouldn't be too nervous about Betterall failing to receive a fair return for Risto. I know I pointed out his negatives, but he's still got a bit of arguments on his side (most attempting to defend/refute negative arguments like mine lol). He's still only 24 (far from old but he's almost, if not already, past his prime). If his end of season stats were increasing every year, he'd probably have a higher trade value. At least for me, if I was trading for him. But at the same time, he really didn't take long at all to start producing in the NHL... It's pretty impressive for an 8th overall pick to make his NHL debut the following year (Buffalo fans might've wished he stayed down another year lol, but you get my point). And on top of that, it only took him his 2nd full NHL season to score 40+ points (might've been his best year all around). Hedman didn't reach .5/ppg (points per game) until his 4th season. However, Hedman has since posted .742 ppg in his most recent 430 NHL games, which is why I brought up &amp; determined that Risto's "plateau" of finalized season stats might be a minor "peak-indicator" that other GMs will most likely consider when negotiating for him... But Heddy's also 4 years older, so it really isn't fair to rule out a player's "peak-ETA" until age 26 at the soonest. Jeff Petry was drafted in 2006. Made his NHL Debut in 2010-11. Posted his career high for single season pts with 25 pts in 2012. That was his best yr until 2016-17, when he posted 3 solid seasons in a row with 28 pts, 42 pts, &amp; 41 pts this yr (season hasn't ended yet). So his peak was (or for now is) age 31. Granted he's the #2 worst plus / minus leader behind Risto, he's proven he can put up 40 pts. I was just trying to use a good dman example, there's plenty of other notable NHL late bloomers.

So Risto has all of that available for arguing his worth lol. He's also top 20 in NHL defenseman points since 2016-17. And clearly he's a big kid @ 6'4 215 lbs, so he's got the "can't teach size" argument too. You can build a pretty appealing resume for the guy, these are the thing's I'd bring up if I were trading him.

But like I said before, the biggest factor for him specifically is that plus / minus. And I'll be the first to admit it, plus / minus stats can very much paint an ugly picture on the stat-sheet's of quality NHL players. Especially with how Buffalo has performed over the past 5-10 years (no offense to BUF, we all gotta rebuild at some point). But ultimately, if you're looking at the names on the negative portion of plus / minus dman leaders in the whole NHL over past 10 years... Not only is he the most negative overall, he has a lead, a big lead. Only 3 guys with -100 or worse... -102, -110, &amp; -136 for Risto.

I think he'll be able to retrieve at least a 1st/2nd rounder + roster player / solid prospect. Depends on the teams involved and their needs. Sorry for rambling on hahaha. GO BOLTS!