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Lancelot
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Forum:
General Fantasy Talk
Mar. 22, 2021 at 6:34 p.m.
Thread:
ValueOf(Seth Jones) to Vancouver ?
Just wondering - if you are a fan in the know how - what would a deal between Columbus and Vancouver look like, if even possible - which ends up with Seth Jones in Vancouver,
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 4, 2020 at 3:02 a.m.
Thread:
Josh Anderson wants out CBJ wants term Marner cant shoot at all
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurgerBoss</b></div><div>While I agree with this, there's quite strong likelihood that Jones is leaving the team as UFA in only two years time, making it quite sensible for them to move him now if they want to secure getting the top value...
Marner alone is not going to be enough, but in my right mind I can't say that TOR don't need to add much.
Anderson and Dermott is a wash, so it only comes to what CBJ wants in a Marner+ type of deal for Jones. That is, if they feel that they should consider moving him.</div></div>
He has 2 more seasons to go. He is 25. Had his first decent brush with a multi month injury layoff. Why on earth would CBJ want to move him now, instead of a year from now or more ? His value doesn’t drop much, even at 22 trade deadline, especially if he has a tacit agreement to sign with the trading team before the trade. A sort of sign and trade deal at worst coz he is super hot commodity.
No chance CBJ trades him without a R1 coming back, unless it’s literally an ELC level rising superstar like Pettersson/Makar/Hughes level guy. And Tdot doesn’t have a R1 this year. Only chance they take a 2021 R1 is if it’s a team like DET/OTT who have a high chance of not making even next years playoffs right now and it’s therefore guaranteed to be a top 10 pick at the least. Players like Jones don’t come often and there are overall maybe 3-5 players of his caliber in the league, in a position almost every team wishes to improve on: right shot right side defenseman.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 4, 2020 at 2:55 a.m.
Thread:
Josh Anderson wants out CBJ wants term Marner cant shoot at all
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafloyalist</b></div><div>End of the day, no1 wants to sign with CLB, they r getting players thru trade with term.....im just hoping the tdot hype has spread thru the league n we can get a quick swap. does every1 else know that Marner cant shoot?</div></div>
short answer is yes and he is definitely not worth 11 million. With the cap being 10% lower, pure playmakers like Henrik Sedin made 7-8 million, ie, almost 40% less. Sure, Marner kills penalties but the leafs are an ordinary pk team and he isn’t a top tier PKer either. In most cup run teams he is either a spare part or 2nd unit PKer at best. He is a less physical, far less goal scoring, less defensively adept and a bit better playmaking version of Mark Stone. Who costs a whopping 2 million less.
My point is, Jones still has 2 more seasons left on his contract after this and at THIS point, there is no package leafs can send short of one including Auston Matthews for CBJ to even sniff at a Leafs offer. Either that or a Phil Kassel-esque 3 1R + prospects type deal. And the leafs don’t have a first this year either. So why trade for next years first when teams can dangle a first this year and far cheaper blue chip prospects ? The moment Jones gets shopped or even offered at, CBJ picks up the phone across the league to see if someone matches and at least six teams will offer something way better than the leafs can, because well, one of THE elite RHD who is 25 and has more than a decade life expectancy as a NHL-er left will be a feeding frenzy. Just to give you an example, Colorado can dangle 2020 1st, Johnson and Connor Timmins without even trying too hard and it’s automatically a better offer than what leafs can match.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 1, 2020 at 11:03 p.m.
Thread:
Josh Anderson wants out CBJ wants term Marner cant shoot at all
Seth Jones is worth more than Marner. Marner is great but he is overpaid ( he is a poorer version of Mark Stone) by at least 2 million. Meanwhile, before injury and encompassing most of the season, Seth Jones has put a body of work that’s nearly Norris trophy conversation and he is the next batch of peaking ultra-elite D man who has it all: amazing at PK, can run the PP great ( ideal 2nd PP QB at worst, only if Hughes or Karlsson of old are running the 1st unit), big, strong, fast, great shot, good passing, calm under pressure, good positioning. He is a franchise cornerstone that’s in top 10 value for franchise cornerstones: he is being paid less than six million when he is playing in the 8-9 million league for defenseman. All this comes with a 25 year old right shot ‘ unicorn’ league guy.
His price will be, at bare minimum, a blue-chip prospect, a top 5-10 draft pick and a roster filler to even entice the blues to trade him. Or in this case, Marner and a first coming back for Jones and an AHL-er/roster filler guy for leafs. Period. Most teams will offer way more than this happily to pry Jones from CBJ.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 20, 2020 at 12:48 a.m.
Thread:
Columbus-Vancouver trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Viqsi</b></div><div>The Jackets' need for scoring help is a tad overstated. To the extent that it exists, it's for <strong>roster players</strong>, not prospects. Especially not guys at RW, as we're overstrength there.
That and moving Peeke isn't necessarily a thing we want to do, since he's our insurance policy in case it proves uneconomical to retain Savard.</div></div>
I think you are overlooking the scoring potential of having a true PMD type in Rafferry
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 6, 2020 at 4:03 a.m.
Thread:
in two years - current roster and contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>Two year deal with the second year being 8+</div></div>
Maybe. If his final year is 8M or more I am expecting a 3-4 year deal. Simply because there are only 7 defenseman in the entire NHL who makes 8M or more, all of them kill penalties and all of them got their 8M+ contracts after 5-7 years in the league, none after just 2+ hope of 2 more years of excellence. As you get to the top end of defenseman salary, established performance gets money, not pure potential. Defenseman contracts work significantly differently in this than forward contracts, who often get paid a lot on just promise.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5, 2020 at 9:40 p.m.
Thread:
in two years - current roster and contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>60 points for a young defenceman is pretty insane.</div></div>
It is. But as I said, he does not kill penalties yet, which considerably lowers $ value for a defenseman. At current rate, he may project to Ehrhoff style contract if long term. I just don’t see top 5 in league money for a guy with zero negotiation leverage and only 2 full seasons work to go by, when his numbers are not top5 in the league. 6-7 million bucks as an RFA defenseman on his second contract is a pretty insane value too.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5, 2020 at 8:41 p.m.
Thread:
in two years - current roster and contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>Then it's going to he a 2-3 year deal with the final year being 9 million minimum meaning the QO will be that high</div></div>
You are probably right. Assuming he gets two back to back 50-60 point seasons and doesn’t start figuring in the PK, his contract may just be a 4.5+5.5+7+8 = 25M at shade over 6M with a qualifying offer of 8M in his last year as RFA status.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5, 2020 at 8:37 p.m.
Thread:
in two years - current roster and contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wqrrior</b></div><div>Hughes won't get a bridge. He is simply too good for that.
Demko might get a bridge. I mirrored my deal after the Gibson deal if we take a risk.
Virtanen could get that. Not an awful assessment.
Pearson will not get that. Although he is on a career pace, he is too inconsistent in the past to receive 6 years. Give him that term at 3 or 4 years. I agree i bought low with my deal.
I''d inverse the stecher deal to 4x3 but same money so OK i guess
I see gaudette doing 2 years not 3. Won't knock you there.
Biggest thing is that players always get more than we expect. Most of my knocks against your assessment is the term and not the value. Term is from consistency, money is from recent performance.</div></div>
As I said, Hughes is definitely not getting top-3 in league defenseman money on the back of 2 full seasons and no arbitration or offer sheet ability. If he wants term, he will have to take payment in the 6-7M range and if he wants more than that, he will not get term. Benning is not Dubas, he is conservative with his money aspect.
Agreed, Pearson may not get that long a term but he may hunt for the last long term contract of his career.
Stecher won’t make a dime above 3M because he is a 3rd pairing defenseman who doesn’t play PP or PK. He is also local boy, who may take term for discount.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5, 2020 at 2:13 a.m.
Thread:
in two years - current roster and contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>Demko won't get too much but Hughes and Petterson are getting paid.</div></div>
Pettersson is, Hughes is not till his next next contract. No chance an ELC with no arbitration or offer sheet eligibility gets 9.5M as a defender. That makes him the top 4 paid defenders in the league with zero bargain power. Just doesn’t happen. He either takes a lot less for term or team gives him bridge deal of 6-7 million backloaded to make next qualifying offer a min 7-8 mil offer.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5, 2020 at 2:10 a.m.
Thread:
in two years - current roster and contracts
Realistic deals at current scoring and playing rates :
Pettersson : 8 years @ 9.5M
Hughes: 3-4 years @6M
Demko: 3 years @3/4M
Virtanen:6 years at 3.5M
Pearson: 6 years at 4.5M
Stecher: 4 years at 3M
Gaudette: 3 years at 3M
Total for these players for me: 32.5-33.5M
For you: 39M
That’s 6.5-5.5 saved right there.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 5, 2020 at 2:02 a.m.
Thread:
in two years - current roster and contracts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood</b></div><div>Every fan on here pumps the tires of their players until it's time to pay them. Then they are lesser and don't deserve top dollar. Petterson and Hughes are getting huge contracts or they may get one of those entirely short sighted new bridge deals where the last year has a massive number that gives them huge qualifying offers. Either way these two are getting paid big.</div></div>
Hughes May get EK money if he puts EK like seasons for 3-4 years. 50-60 points as a D without killing penalties regularly will be an Ehrhoff range deal but with young player inflation, so like 6-7 mil max. Also you forget, big part is, Hughes cannot be offersheeted. That’s big coz he can’t hold out for a mega contract from someone else. That makes it hard for him to hold out on a 6x3years deal.
Also no chance Demko is getting 7.5 mil without running starter duties and winning lots as starter or posting .930 or better as a backup this year and next. That’s just way too much for a ok stat goalie with not much experience or eye popping numbers at the NHL. He just doesn’t make more than Bennington, not without him winning the cup as starter for Canucks this year or next
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 3, 2020 at 4:14 a.m.
Thread:
in two years - current roster and contracts
Way too much for Hughes and Demko. Benning has shown with Brock ( and to an extent Horvat) that he isn’t going to give mega-contract without literally being top of the league numbers, on the back of 2 years performance. Hughes contract is up next year and he cannot be offer-sheeted. He is not consistently on the PK , never mind top PK guy to go along with his top production like Hedman, Weber, Ekblad, etc. So he max gets 5.5-6 mil 3 years or 7-7.5 mil long term.
Same with Demko, if Bennington didn’t get over 5M, Demko as RFA won’t either. If he is still around, and starter to boot, his next contract is max in 3-4 million range.
Oh and Tanner Pearson isn’t signing for 2.5M either. He already makes 3.5M+ , is being productive on the second like and is a consistent penalty killer. He makes 4.5-5M in open market and max home team discount for him would be a 4M 3-4 year deal
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 28, 2019 at 7:04 p.m.
Thread:
Interim for the future
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>Comparing to how Thompson is playing now, Sutter definitely not an upgrade anywhere. I guess it makes sense we get someone else, next year, but why give up a good pick for a 4th liner? We can find tons of those in FA.</div></div>
Sutter is definitely an upgrade over Nate when it comes to offence and is one of the premier PKers in the tougher Western Conference. He is mid level 3C that you’d get for 2M, a fair bargain and definitely better option than any in the UFA list for 2M.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 27, 2019 at 8:09 p.m.
Thread:
Interim for the future
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>leafs101</b></div><div>Ottawa says no</div></div>
Could go either way, to be honest. Ottawa has only 8 players under contract for 20-21 and they lose McArthurs salary to reach cap floor. Currently they pay 0 to get cap relief of 4.65M for McArthur. With Ericsson they pay 2M to get cap relief of 6M, if the deal is after July1st,2020, they pay 5M over two seasons, aka net cap relief of 4.75M since 2.5M held back over 2 seasons equal 1.25M actual salary. Perhaps the deal would work for another prospect and no Sven ?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 27, 2019 at 8:02 p.m.
Thread:
Interim for the future
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>Montreal says no. Sutter wouldn't be more than a 4th liner and Thompson is doing a great job.</div></div>
Nate Thompson is a UFA at the end of 19-20. This team is for 20-21.Sutter is a definitive offensive upgrade over Nate and equally good at PK. At shade over 2M, I think he fills a need.
SalarySwish
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