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Dec 12, 2015
2nd Favourite Team
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurgerBoss</b></div><div>While I agree with this, there's quite strong likelihood that Jones is leaving the team as UFA in only two years time, making it quite sensible for them to move him now if they want to secure getting the top value...
Marner alone is not going to be enough, but in my right mind I can't say that TOR don't need to add much.
Anderson and Dermott is a wash, so it only comes to what CBJ wants in a Marner+ type of deal for Jones. That is, if they feel that they should consider moving him.</div></div>
He has 2 more seasons to go. He is 25. Had his first decent brush with a multi month injury layoff. Why on earth would CBJ want to move him now, instead of a year from now or more ? His value doesn’t drop much, even at 22 trade deadline, especially if he has a tacit agreement to sign with the trading team before the trade. A sort of sign and trade deal at worst coz he is super hot commodity.
No chance CBJ trades him without a R1 coming back, unless it’s literally an ELC level rising superstar like Pettersson/Makar/Hughes level guy. And Tdot doesn’t have a R1 this year. Only chance they take a 2021 R1 is if it’s a team like DET/OTT who have a high chance of not making even next years playoffs right now and it’s therefore guaranteed to be a top 10 pick at the least. Players like Jones don’t come often and there are overall maybe 3-5 players of his caliber in the league, in a position almost every team wishes to improve on: right shot right side defenseman.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafloyalist</b></div><div>End of the day, no1 wants to sign with CLB, they r getting players thru trade with term.....im just hoping the tdot hype has spread thru the league n we can get a quick swap. does every1 else know that Marner cant shoot?</div></div>
short answer is yes and he is definitely not worth 11 million. With the cap being 10% lower, pure playmakers like Henrik Sedin made 7-8 million, ie, almost 40% less. Sure, Marner kills penalties but the leafs are an ordinary pk team and he isn’t a top tier PKer either. In most cup run teams he is either a spare part or 2nd unit PKer at best. He is a less physical, far less goal scoring, less defensively adept and a bit better playmaking version of Mark Stone. Who costs a whopping 2 million less.
My point is, Jones still has 2 more seasons left on his contract after this and at THIS point, there is no package leafs can send short of one including Auston Matthews for CBJ to even sniff at a Leafs offer. Either that or a Phil Kassel-esque 3 1R + prospects type deal. And the leafs don’t have a first this year either. So why trade for next years first when teams can dangle a first this year and far cheaper blue chip prospects ? The moment Jones gets shopped or even offered at, CBJ picks up the phone across the league to see if someone matches and at least six teams will offer something way better than the leafs can, because well, one of THE elite RHD who is 25 and has more than a decade life expectancy as a NHL-er left will be a feeding frenzy. Just to give you an example, Colorado can dangle 2020 1st, Johnson and Connor Timmins without even trying too hard and it’s automatically a better offer than what leafs can match.
Seth Jones is worth more than Marner. Marner is great but he is overpaid ( he is a poorer version of Mark Stone) by at least 2 million. Meanwhile, before injury and encompassing most of the season, Seth Jones has put a body of work that’s nearly Norris trophy conversation and he is the next batch of peaking ultra-elite D man who has it all: amazing at PK, can run the PP great ( ideal 2nd PP QB at worst, only if Hughes or Karlsson of old are running the 1st unit), big, strong, fast, great shot, good passing, calm under pressure, good positioning. He is a franchise cornerstone that’s in top 10 value for franchise cornerstones: he is being paid less than six million when he is playing in the 8-9 million league for defenseman. All this comes with a 25 year old right shot ‘ unicorn’ league guy.
His price will be, at bare minimum, a blue-chip prospect, a top 5-10 draft pick and a roster filler to even entice the blues to trade him. Or in this case, Marner and a first coming back for Jones and an AHL-er/roster filler guy for leafs. Period. Most teams will offer way more than this happily to pry Jones from CBJ.
Way too much for Hughes and Demko. Benning has shown with Brock ( and to an extent Horvat) that he isn’t going to give mega-contract without literally being top of the league numbers, on the back of 2 years performance. Hughes contract is up next year and he cannot be offer-sheeted. He is not consistently on the PK , never mind top PK guy to go along with his top production like Hedman, Weber, Ekblad, etc. So he max gets 5.5-6 mil 3 years or 7-7.5 mil long term.
Same with Demko, if Bennington didn’t get over 5M, Demko as RFA won’t either. If he is still around, and starter to boot, his next contract is max in 3-4 million range.
Oh and Tanner Pearson isn’t signing for 2.5M either. He already makes 3.5M+ , is being productive on the second like and is a consistent penalty killer. He makes 4.5-5M in open market and max home team discount for him would be a 4M 3-4 year deal