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LikeABoss

Kens replacement
Member Since
Jul. 5, 2017
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Detroit Red Wings
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 12 at 5:14 p.m.
Thread: Burger for Bam Bam
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TMarch</b></div><div>No chance even DET does this. Boqvist = ASP, and isn't like the rest of the core Dman squad (look at Seider, Edvinsson, Johansson, Gibson are all over 6'2, while ASP is 5'11). I liken Boqvist to Anders Eriksson, who Stevie knows well. Jenner is a good piece, but where would he play? He wouldn't play on the 2nd line over Perron, Kane, Compher, and the 3rd line with Ras/Copp/Fischer are crushing it. You aren't paying a 1st round pick and a good prospect for a 4th liner unless you know you are going to contend for the finals, and that piece would put you over the top. Jenner wouldn't put DET over the top.

I suspect DET will sit still, maybe move Reimer for a late round pick. Berggren stays this year, and Steve gives him a guarantee to make the squad next year full time.</div></div>

Boqvist is just a throw in. Jenner plays a lot of minutes for CBJ. I think he'd fit in well on the first line, but they could move him wherever really. He's a really good utility with a similar pace as Perron, so I could see him on the 2nd line also. He would be able to slide into the 3rd line seamlessly for anyone of the current players, and would likely be an upgrade. I think it would be a waste to put him on the 4th line, but he'd do it and not complain if that's what was needed.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 12 at 2:56 p.m.
Thread: Burger for Bam Bam
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CaseyFlyman</b></div><div>CBJ decline, for a number of reasons:

1) Jenner currently isn't available. (But we'll assume he becomes available once Jarmo is fired)
2) We're not about to retain on Boqvist
3) No interest in Kostin, he's looking like a career AHL-NHL tweener (and we have plenty)
4) Not high on Berggren, a slightly undersized winger who is riding a 38.6% xGF% vs. a 70% actual on-ice GF% and a career shooting % about 5% above NHL-average smells like danger. Plenty of AHL points producers don't pan out at the NHL level, I'm thinking he may be one of them.
5) Even if we were high on Berggren, it's still lacking as a total return for Jenner, then Boqvist is probably around a mid-round pick in value.</div></div>

I was originally thinking Fabbri + Kostin + Burger + 1st, which doesn't require any retention, but think Red Wings fans would balk. Kostin is a solid bottom 6 banger, and is only 24, but calling him a tweener is fair. Berggren is only 23 and IS an NHL player, but isn't going to get a spot this season because GR has a shot at making the playoffs and the Wings needed to carry 3 goalies all season... Berggren should be playing in the NHL this season, but Detroit is doing Detroit things with their prospects because he didn't need waivers to go up and down...

I think Jenner should finish his career with CBJ, but he'd be a good fit on any line in Detroit.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 7, 2023 at 6:34 p.m.
Thread: Walkrot Ferrattinder
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SharkTank</b></div><div>Yeah you know more than Steve Yzerman does. 🙄

Wouldn't it be easier to say you don't like Wallinder? 🤔

You're entitled to your opinion but at least be honest about it.</div></div>
LOL, oh Stevie said he's destined to play with Seider, I must have missed that one, send me a link if ya find it.

How did you gather that from anything I said? In fact it's quite the opposite, I think he has some qualities that everyone can recognize as valuable, and I think he obviously has some areas he needs to improve in if he's in the AHL right now. I think that combination makes him valuable in a trade right now, and also think there's obviously risk with keeping him, and the team could do some damage right now with players that can play for them right now.

I don't know more than Stevie, but how much do you want to bet that "CoachCoach" isn't Stevie? How much do you want to bet that I might know more than CoachCoach or you for that matter? Granted I don't care either way and hope you don't either

In all seriousness I like the team name so I have to defend it, especially if people want to engage in debate. Simple as that brother
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 7, 2023 at 6:12 p.m.
Thread: Walkrot Ferrattinder
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CoachCoach</b></div><div>Oh he is very slender. The NHL however is becoming more and more about speed and players that can do it all/multi-dimensional.

Once he fills out (Hook him up with Raymond’s trainer) he could be the perfect partner for Seider.
Wallinder-Seider
Edvinsson-ASP
Walman-

Then hope for the best with at least 1-2 of the following prospects in case things play out differently (regression/injuries/contracts/cap/roster)

Albert J-Anton J
Cleveland-Tuomisto
Buium-Gibson</div></div>

From the little bit I saw, I can't see him in an offensive D role in the NHL, hopefully I'm wrong, but I just don't think he sees the game at that level. You might say well that's why they teach and develop, but I'd point out that jocks aren't typically stereotyped as quick learners. I'm not a fan of your top 5 blueline cuz I don't agree the league is going that way. Who's the last cup champion that had only 1 D-man who hits on the blueline? Expand that to cup finalists or even conference finalists if you'd like, I'm just curious to see your work on that one.

I don't disagree with you on the size thing, I think he covers a lot of ice more because he skates really well and happens to have a longer stick, but he doesn't play "big" though. I'd say it's definately worth a shot putting him out there with Seider if he ever makes the big club, but he is definitely still a project. Don't get me wrong though his skating is very tantalizing, if they can get him to improve his anticipation and decision making I could see that high of a ceiling for him.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 7, 2023 at 5:04 p.m.
Thread: Walkrot Ferrattinder
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>Who do you think Mario Ferraro is?</div></div>
He'd be a massive upgrade on the role Yzerman was trying to fill with Chiarot. It's a team game after all and I think only going after the "best" player gets you the Dubas Maple Leafs.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yikes</b></div><div>Ferraros awesome but Yzerman would have to be kidnapped for this to happen and Grier would be cheering like child on Christmas.</div></div>
Okay Okay I get it, honestly I haven't looked at other posts to gauge a fair value, I just know he's a gamer if he's close to leading the league in hits and blocked shots at his age, I don't see an issue with this price but obviously everyone agrees I'm overpaying. I still think it would be a great pickup

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>Are you sure Detroit is your favorite team???????????</div></div>
2nd favorite, my first favorite has to be the Harlem Globetrotters! They have a pretty decent record as of late ;)
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 18, 2023 at 8:20 a.m.
Thread: We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>Legitimately one of the dumbest rebuttals I've ever heard.</div></div>

This must be another etymological issue, where I'm assuming you mean "devastating" when you say "dumbest". Kind of like your definition of "fringe player" means "4th line player" right?

You make an excellent point, it's pretty devastating when a hypothetical 8 year deal for Abs would have been cheaper than the 14 years of $30M contracts and buyout he did get. Thanks for your kind feedback! :squinty

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>You're not watching if you think he's playing like a $6M player...</div></div>

We agree here too, he's playing more like a $6.9M x 6yr player, aka 3rd year Willy Nylander, and will likely be paid as such. :cool
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 17, 2023 at 12:15 p.m.
Thread: We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>lol where do you see an 8 year deal....</div></div>
:|
6yr + 5yr = 11 yr, 5yr +3yr = 8yr, 6yr + 1yr = 7yr... What I'm showing is some of his comparables have been paid for over multiple contracts in the 3.4% ($3M) range amounting to a period of ~8 years. I also think Jeannot and Sharangovich are good comparable case studies for your approach with short term deals.

The player contracts I'm pointing to have similar playing styles with similar production. The only comparables you've provided are Jonathan Ericsson, Dan Cleary and Drew Miller... Do you know one of those is a defenseman, and none of them were given a long term deal early in their career...? In fact they were all given overpriced contracts when they were UFA, which supports the case for a long term deal... :grimace

The difference between 2 contracts x 4yr versus 1 contract x 8yr is due to the high probability of the salary cap increasing in the future. Thus 3.7% of the future cap will be more than $3.25M which results in 2 contracts x 4yr consuming a higher percentage of the cap over that same period than 1 contract x 8yr.

Extrapolating a little further, if you assume the player doesn't regress, short term deals favor the player (which might be what your routing for if you want him to get paid :cool ) while long term deals favor the team. However if the player regresses (which seems to be what you're actually routing for :s ) then it flips and a short term deals favor the team and long term deals favor the player.

Make sense?

I'd like to take your awful comparables and raise you one Justin Abdelkader. He signed a 3.0% x 4yr contract when he was 25, sound familiar? Later (with the cap having gone up from $60M to $73M) he signed a 5.95% x 7yr extension... Can you at the very least concede the fact that signing Abs @ 6.0% ($3.6M) x 8yr would have been objectively better than 3.0% ($1.8M) x 4yr + 5.95% ($4.25M) x 4yr + buyout @ 6.3M x 6yr...? I'm not saying he was ever worth 6%, but still don't think there's an argument against that hypothetical long term contract with hindsight... Damn... Just think of their trajectory if they had signed Abs to an 8yr deal, and Stevie could have bought him out day 1 of becoming GM @ &lt;$2.8M x 2yr...:tearsofjoy

You still haven't suggested a replacement for Ras when you lose him on waivers... Basically your only argument is your opinion of his play from this season, so everything considered, your short sighted opinion hasn't changed anyone's assessment on the value of Ras. I haven't even brought up Razor, but I think it's safe to assume your opinion of him is more of the same verbal diarrhea...

Just pack it in buddy.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 15, 2023 at 7:49 p.m.
Thread: We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>Pretty simple for me really. I see a really mediocre player that doesn't have a positive impact on the teams success on a nightly basis.

A fringe NHL player means someone who is a 4th liner / not quite regular NHL level talent. You could put Ras in a GR game tomorrow and you wouldn't know who the clear NHLer is. He's incredibly average. He probably would clear waivers at this point, but I'm not advocating for sending him down. It's not like he needs to develop his game, this is who he is.

I think he should be paid based on his entire career thus far in the NHL, which shows that he is nothing but a 4th line player. As such, signing him to anything more than that type of contract is nonsense, unless you want the Wings to be in the bottom of the standings every year. Watching Ras for another 8 years would be like having to watch Jonathan Ericsson or Daniel Cleary or Drew Miller for another 8 years. At this point I couldn't care less if they re-sign this coming offseason. He adds next to nothing on the roster.

We've suffered far too long through Holland's BS to deal with that again.</div></div>

I doubt he would make it passed San Jose on waivers. Who's busting down the door to take his spot btw? Whoever that player is, by your description they would automatically also be fringe right? What are the guys that get scratched? I suppose that just means every team ices a "fringe" line, aka the 4th line, so what's the harm in locking up a fringe liner for 8 years?

He's only 24 and even if he amounts to a 4th liner for the rest of his career, $3.25M is not unmanageable. Don't get me wrong, I'm certainly all for him being a 4th liner because that would mean the team is in a pretty good spot with 9+ forwards who are playing better than Ras regularly. I just don't see who the 9 are with this roster, and into the future. There aren't a ton of replacement/upgrades in UFA market this offseason either. Who should they add/promote?
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 15, 2023 at 6:07 p.m.
Thread: We might be broke soon
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>We're watching different players. Ras looked like he took a big step last year and actually looked like he could be a contributor for years to come, but this year he has reverted back to being the same fringe NHL-caliber player. I hated the pick when Holland made it and I still hate it today.

He can't skate, he doesn't win FOs, he creates nothing 5v5 but icings, he barely uses his body unless he's on the PP and he doesn't play physical.

Signing him for 8 years is borderline insane.</div></div>

We might be watching different sports. When you say fringe NHLer I don't know what you mean by it. When I think of fringe NHLers it's the players that can get through waivers unclaimed. Do you think Ras should go on waivers? Or do you have a different description of a fringe NHLer?

Here's my counter points to your list: He took a puck to the knee blocking a shot last season, FOWs is a weak argument, he's again on pace for 25+ points this season, he certainly uses his size to block shots, and if by physical you mean he should hit more I'm not sure how much more u require because he's had multiple seasons with 100+ hit pace.

I think we're talking passed each other on the points production part, because if he produced more we would be talking about a larger contract, but instead this is market value because that's what his production is worth around the league... *See previously referenced comparable contracts

It seems like you think he should be paid based on his last 15 games, and based on those 15 games you'd be fine losing him on waivers... Whereas I think he should be paid based on his reliability shown at a professional level from the age of 18 to 24.

8 years @ 3.7% of the cap would make him 33 YO by the end of this extension, and probably @ ~3% of the cap. A bridge deal walks him to UFA, anything from bridge up to max would just buy down the risk of regression or injury.

I think the regression thing is a pretty safe bet, because I remember they liked his drive and passion when they drafted him, so I just don't see him regressing much through the rest of his 20s. The injury thing is a crapshoot, but taking a bet that a player will stays healthy is a pretty low threshold for insanity.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 2, 2023 at 9:08 p.m.
Thread: Would this get a Pinto deal done
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AnonymousSensFan</b></div><div>Not really. Forsberg has fit in and looked good with a larger sample size. He and Korpisalo would provide a good tandem, which Sens have lacked for years.

Sens need stable goaltending more than a 3C, which they can sign by moving other, less critical pieces. Lyon can maybe pick up where he left off, or he may not. Sens can't count on that. They know and like Forsberg, and his contract is reasonable.

I also don't think Yzerman is the type of person to trade a FA he just signed before the season even starts. Not a great move for a team to make.</div></div>

Understandable. I was just trying something off the beaten path with this trade.

I'm not saying Forsberg is bad, but I think it would be fair to put him in the same ballpark as Reimer and Lyon. From the Wings perspective this would maybe be a slight upgrade, for an extra 4th and a pretty substantial cap hit for 2 seasons...