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LumberJacques

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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 20, 2023 at 1:31 p.m.
Thread: What is going on
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Fox_Czar_Cup</b></div><div>Sooo predictable. BUF OTT MTL rebuild with offense in mind but no leadership core or vets in place to Show them he way. It's like a day care with kis in charge lol.
Yet all of their fans will bark at you, saying we will explode lol.
Everybody was laughing at NYR for locking up their core during rebuild instead of stapling our Busts on line 1 or pp1. Like them, Kakko would have started with 40 points and have been locked up 7x 6m lol...</div></div>

Whoa, Whoa, Whoa. What's with MTL catching strays here?

I can't agree about putting MTL in that group. Suzuki, Newhook and Caufield may be young but they've been on a cup final run already. For veteran presence they have Gallagher, Allen, Savard, Pearson and Anderson who have also been on cup runs before on top of Monahan and Matheson who have been great leaders on the team. While the team is young there is still a significant amount of experience in that locker room.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 30, 2023 at 12:54 a.m.
Thread: there are some EXTREMELY delusional fanbases on this site
I mean nobody is saying you <strong>SHOULD</strong> pay multiple 1st picks to trade Campbell.

But at the same time teams aren't going to be lining up to have dead cap on their books for the next 3-6 years either. More than 2/3 the teams in the NHL currently have aspirations for at least the playoffs over the next 2 years and want to maximize every cap dollar. On top of that most owners won't be ok with paying $9m for a player to not play for their team or worst $15m to play in the AHL. That leaves you with an incredibly small market of teams that would even have the capacity to take Campbell on without getting to those that would actually be open to it.

I can't speak for any other market but MTL specifically has been very openly reluctant to take on longer term dead cap under Hughes. He has been very vocal about cap flexibility being a top priority and not wanting to resort to buyouts if at all possible. He easily could have bought out Hoffman and Armia this past summer and instead opted against it despite the mild terms on those buyouts. I can't imagine a 6 year buyout being of any interest to him unless an offer he can't refuse materialized, which a 1st and 3rd most certainly isn't.

Outside the Habs I can only think of SJ, Philly and maybe MN or CHI potentially being open to a Campbell dump. The other teams either have a mandate to win or cheap ownership. Most likely outcome IMO is EDM being forced to buyout because I can't see a 1st + 3rd being enough to entice them to deal with this problem.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 29, 2023 at 8:42 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 10:36 p.m.
Thread: Buy low Sell high
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CantCrackTheKraken</b></div><div>Could trade Yam anywhere for a 3rd or 2nd</div></div>

How do you figure that?

He couldn't score enough with McDavid and Draisaitl to avoid being cap dumped this summer and then Detroit felt like buying him out was preferable to whatever was being offered to acquire him by other teams (they likely could have even retained half his cap in a trade given their space). This season his scoring still isn't anything special and he is averaging around 12 minutes per game (4th line minutes) so clearly is far from the most trusted or valued player by his coaches. Contending teams usually target bigger and more rugged "playoff style" players at the deadline and rebuilding teams likely don't want to spend assets on a player with such a slim chance of ever being more than the player he currently is.

At his size (probably the lightest player in the NHL and among the shortest) he has to be a special offensive talent to be worth anything and to this point he just hasn't proven that. Honestly I don't know if anyone would claim him if he went on waivers again.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 5:20 p.m.
Thread: Perry
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>But that's kind of the same point I'm agreeing to in my two above posts: Blackwood isn't one of the star goaltenders in the NHL today, he's just performing really well on a gutted Sharks roster.

This entire conversation is surrounding the idea of my rebuttal of Bourgault, Broberg, the 2025 1st, and Campbell for Blackwood. I'm aligned with Allan's discussion, having reached this conclusion not from the opinion that Seravalli dropped, but extrapolating to the Oilers being in a really bad bargaining position at the moment. To expect Edmonton to get absolutely nothing back in that return is insane to me, no matter how much of a black hole Campbell is in terms of value. That's too much capital to be moving out to free up less than $4M in cap space over the next three years.</div></div>

My bad, I hadn't gotten to that point in the thread yet.

However I don't completely agree with your point of Bourgault and Broberg holding more inherent value than a 1st round pick. Bourgault himself was a late 1st pick and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire since turning pro and I think his value IMO is pretty much in line with his draft slot and I would rate him more of a B than B+ prospect until he shows more offence. As for Broberg, he is in his 3rd pro season in NA and still hasn't been able to take hold of a regular role in the NHL despite management being very high on him. The fact that the coaching staff don't play a 3rd year pro for even 11 minutes per game speaks to the lack of trust and belief in this player which is concerning given that he was drafted as a future Ekholm style 2 way, dependable stalwart and not a high event, risky player which coaches are often wary of.

Though prospect evaluation is far from an exact science and Grier might be more aligned with your view and find the value proposed to be sufficient. I personally don't see much surplus value to either player compared to a late 1st round pick and so agree with Emil that more would need to be added get Blackwood.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 28, 2023 at 4:41 p.m.
Thread: Perry
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>If the rumoured ask to dump Campbell is a first and a third, how is the sum total of said first and two of Edmonton's best prospects not getting this done? Ultimately, are your feelings about taking back the contract aligned with the reality of the situation?

I personally don't have an interest in acquiring Ferraro, and the inclusion of Janmark is a nothingburger, but the package of Bourgault, Broberg, Campbell, and the requisite first absolutely fetches Blackwood (at least on paper). I recognize that the Sharks only have LHD and might not hold Broberg in high regard, but I think your stance on this specific trade is, well, skewed.</div></div>

I don't know what rumours you are referring to but a 1st and 3rd to dump Campbell seems woefully short on value to dump $5m in cap for 3 1/2 years.

To me the cost of moving Campbell should be close to a 1st per year of term. This mirrors Lowetide at The Athletic's take "the asset cost of simply moving Campbell starts at three good prospects/picks".

reference: https://theathletic.com/5074967/2023/11/20/edmonton-oilers-goalie-trades/
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 27, 2023 at 11:28 p.m.
Thread: Jets get better and get pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Howie</b></div><div>I'd rather see mtl pay the price as he'll be an issue more ein the future so sure the term goes down but he gets worse just virtue of playstyle. So I'll agree there the cost now would be similar to in the future but not cheaper. The cap space and allowing to young players was another big positive as what if Ylonen plays amazing with the ice time. No one would know without this move. He's already 24 years old and really hasn't got the opportunity. I don't think Ylonen should be sacrificed in development so mtl can save a pick that could be a vesalainen.</div></div>

I covered Ylonen in my first paragraph. Anderson isn't what's blocking his way, Pezzetta, Armia and RHP are. If he can't be in the lineup regularly over the 3 aforementioned players as well as Pearson then he isn't going to get Anderson's ice even if MTL moved him. This isn't a good argument for paying to dump Anderson as Ylonen is unlikely to be the beneficiary of Anderson's departure, it's more likely Armia would be.

You wrote "So I'll agree there the cost now would be similar to in the future..." so if the price is likely to be similar then why not wait until you actually need the space to buy it? Lots of things could happen in the mean time like a career ending injury perhaps, or a return to form. Either way there isn't much benefit for MTL to do it now if "...the cost now would be similar to in the future...".
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 27, 2023 at 10:57 p.m.
Thread: Jets get better and get pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Howie</b></div><div>Schmidt could be a healthy scratch or see if he can be traded but 2 years compared to 4 is massive as cap is king in the nhl.

For the cap dump cost. Right now he has 2 points in 21 games. What if next year he's worse, gets injured, etc. The cost to trade a 2 point in 21 game player is less than a 5.5m with 10 points in 42 ahl games. Remember physical players like Anderson are walking time bombs which they can fall off a cliff at any moment based on his style of play. You can remove him allow Ylonen 18 minutes a night and maybe he becomes an even better lehkonen but mtl would never know without trading Anderson. Look at Gallagher for the contract like you mentioned ltir but look at Gallagher now he sure is playing okay but on a contending mtl team do you want him being paying 6m plus 100% no. No guarantee they are ltir retired but just end up like a Louie eriksson who made 6m and wasn't injured but wasn't nhl caliber.</div></div>

Ylonen is being rotated with Armia and Pezzetta, whether Anderson is there or not won't likely affect his ice much. If he hadn't been scratched all season I might be tempted to agree with you but if he's being rotated with 4th liners and not playing above Pearson then Anderson isn't what's blocking his way.

The issue that I can't seem to get through here is that you're trying to fix a problem MTL don't have "NOW" and aren't even sure they'll have in the future. It's a bit like if someone was trying to sell you a tent because you might go camping in 2 years. You tell them that's great but you don't even know if you'll actually go camping though, so you'd rather wait until then to buy one. The salesman replies that prices might be higher at that point so you should buy his tent now just in case. You then reply that you'd rather wait to see if you actually need one before buying it, as it makes more sense to pay a higher price when you know you need a tent than to pay for a tent now and not be sure you'll actually need it.

We don't know what will happen this season, let alone next season or the one after that. What we do know is that the more term comes off a contract, the easier it becomes to move. Therefore if MTL don't need to move this contract now or next season then why rush to do so when the price to move said contract is not likely to be much higher when they eventually MIGHT, POTENTIALLY, find themselves needing to move it? It makes more sense to wait and see how things develop and act if needed, than act now at expensive cost for something that may never come to pass. Several years ago people made the same type of ACGM about Weber and Price's contracts that would have seen MTL pay dearly in assets to move potentially "problematic contracts" which never ended up being much of an issue for the team.

So to sum up, if there does come a time where MTL do need to rid themselves of Anderson's contract then whatever the price ends up being they will pay it. In the mean time they have no need to move his contract and so they won't.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 27, 2023 at 9:40 p.m.
Thread: Jets get better and get pick
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Howie</b></div><div>He's currently blocking Ylonen from more ice time as well as actively making his linemates worse. If he's continues the way he's been playing it may cost 2+ firsts to dump him and cap space is super valuable especially coming out of a rebuild ex panarin, Pavelski, Tavares, geaudreau</div></div>

Logically your argument makes no sense.

You mention that he is taking ice time away from Ylonen which outside the pp isn't really the case, but then Schmidt would be doing the same to Xhekaj, Harris, Norlinder and Struble this season on top of possibly Engstrom and Hutson next season. This isn't exactly much of an improvement to the ice time situation if at all.

The worst part though is saying that the price to "dump" him would increase when logically the inverse should be true. As the cap rises and his term diminishes the price to dump said contract also should lower (moving a problem contract with 1 or 2 years to run is cheaper than the same with 4). Besides, with his power-forward style of play it isn't impossible that Anderson (and Gallagher for that matter) winds up LTIRetired before his contract can even become a burden to the team (ie. Price and Weber situations).

Anderson currently isn't problematic for MTL's cap situation and doesn't project to be so next season either, so why pay to solve a problem you don't have now and aren't even sure to have in the future?
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 25, 2023 at 4:32 p.m.
Thread: Jets buy at the deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Howie</b></div><div>How many of those teams have/ can afford to trade another first. BOS, FLA, TB and PIT all have traded their 2024 first and have below average prospects. If lindholm is available which is likely jets have a 1st which half the teams you mentioned don't and the other half don't a hole at center (nyr have zib and trocheck, Colorado has Mackinnon and Johanson, Dallas has hintz and segiun) so jets have the best chance of everyone you mentioned lol and that took 5 minutes to look into at most</div></div>

My point wasn't that WPG have no chance of getting Lindholm. It was that if Lindholm is available only one team can get him and subsequently those who did not get him will turn to Monahan as the best option, which makes him a sought after commodity and supports a high valuation IMO.

It's true that most contenders don't have highly rated prospect pools but that doesn't mean they don't have any noteworthy prospects, it simply means they don't have many of them and likely no elite ones (which a team likely wouldn't trade anyways). TB could make Howard or Gauthier available to offset the lack of a 2024 pick and BOS could use Lohrei or Lysell in the same capacity while PIT could use Yager. GMs who believe they are close to a cup often find ways of being creative to improve their team.

LA having Kopitar and Danault didn't prevent them from adding Dubois nor did Toronto having Matthews and Tavares prevent them from targeting O'Reilly and Acciari. Boston's great blueline didn't prevent them from adding Orlov nor did Carolina having Slavin and Skjei on the left and Burns and Pesce on the right prevent them from signing Orlov and DeAngelo. A team doesn't require a hole at a certain position to be interested in upgrading their roster for a trip to the playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 25, 2023 at 3:39 p.m.
Thread: Jets buy at the deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Howie</b></div><div>Monahan ain't worth a 1st. I'd rather add a prospect and something else to get lindholm at that point. In no way is Monahan worth a 1st straight up</div></div>

That's a perfectly reasonable position.

The problem is that we don't know if Lindholm will even be available, he might re-sign with Calgary before the Deadline or he might not. If Lindholm is available then WPG will be in competition with at least half a dozen teams for his services and there can only be one winner. Those who don't get Lindholm will turn to the next best option which is Monahan. With at least TB, FLA, BOS, NYR, COL, DAL, VGK and VAN in positions to be aggressive buyers I estimate it as likely that Monahan finds a suitor willing to pay the asking price even if the Jets are not.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 25, 2023 at 2:44 p.m.
Thread: Jets buy at the deadline
What makes me bullish on Monahan returning a 1st (if healthy obviously) is that he would be either the best or second best (if Lindholm is made available by Calgary) centre option at the TDL. Contending teams are always keen on adding centre depth and especially if that player is as versatile as Monahan who can play just as ably on the wing of skill players like Suzuki and Caufield or centre a hard-nosed checking line with the likes of Gallagher and Pearson. I don't see anything but a 1st or equivalent prospect being enough to make MTL sell unless there is truly no market (which would be a surprise).

The second part I dislike about that trade is adding Schmidt for Savard. MTL aren't looking to add LHD whether veteran or otherwise and subtracting a RHD for a LHD on top of adding $2.5m in cap nest season just isn't appealing in the least.