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LumberJacques

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Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 19, 2023 at 5:29 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 13, 2023 at 5:23 p.m.
Thread: Nikita Zadorov Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Savard...maybe....but I cannot add Chiarot and Risto trades as they are generally seen has two of the worst trades for dmen

So you think he returns a 1st round pick plus. It seems there are a bunch of people that agree with you.

My money is still on mid pick.</div></div>

They certainly are bad trades, but IMO they belong because GMs keep making them.

Honestly I have no dog in the fight and just enjoy good debates and playing devil's advocate at times. Though if I had to choose a most likely range I would say he is likely to return (with retention) something between a 2nd and 1st round pick IMO.

It just seems like every year there is this big 4/5 defensive defenseman who everybody thinks shouldn't cost a 1st but somehow always winds up getting it. This year I think Zadorov might be that guy. Every year I tell myself that GMs will change and be more careful with their picks but there's always that one GM who thinks the big defensive defenseman is his missing piece. I've given up expecting any different at this point.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 13, 2023 at 4:23 p.m.
Thread: Nikita Zadorov Trade Comps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>So, in other words, why isn't Zadorov getting a 1st round pick plus?

-- Savard was a solid dman back then and was #3 in Columbus. He was also part of three-way trade and was double-retained...so a good part of his return was baked into the salary savings.

-- Chiarot was an odd trade as he was Montreal's #1 in 2022, but was an analytics mess...many teams were not bullish, but he was dealt between two clubs that were not data-driven teams. And generally seen as poor trade.

-- Risto trade is generally seen as one of the worst trades in recent times. But like Chiarot, he was #1 in ice time, was traded between two clubs that didn't manage with analytics. Also, Chuck Fletcher is terrible GM.

All of these were also outliers....</div></div>

IMO the reason these players were getting so much ice was the weakness of their teams' defense. None of the players I mentioned had an Andersson, Weegar or Hannifin ahead of them on the depth chart at the time they were traded.

Regardless of ice time (which is largely driven by teammate quality) I still maintain that all of Chiarot, Savard, Kulak, Ristolainen, Zadorov and even maybe Gavrikov (though his trade is more complicated because of Korpisalo being part of it) can be claimed to have more in common through their role as big and rugged number 4/5 defensive defensemen than Zadorov has with the likes of Benn, Folin, Josh Brown, Beaulieu, Coburn (in 2021), Del Zotto, Gilbert, Manning and Jack Johnson (most of whom were depth defensemen in their last or second-to-last year in the NHL) and therefore are fully worthy of inclusion in this list of comparables for Zadorov.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 1, 2023 at 12:04 p.m.
Thread: Way to much work valuing Weegar in a Trade
My big problem with the comparables you used (minus Ekholm) is that they were all in their early or mid 20's at the time of those trades. The acquiring team in those trades were buying those players' prime years which wouldn't be the case for Weegar at 30.

The reason Weegar's value is so unclear is because he is in a fairly unique situation with few to no comps. Players don't usually get traded with 7 or 8 years of term left and usually the selling team is motivated by a pressure point to resolve the situation. Hamilton had just completed his ELC and clearly the team and player didn't see eye-to-eye on his role and compensation moving forward. Eichel needed surgery to play and the team and player couldn't agree on what treatment he should have. Jones was entering his pending UFA season on a rebuilding team. Chychrun had been asking to be traded for over a year, had trade protection coming up in his contract and was playing well leading into the trade deadline. Arizona probably felt he was at peak value and didn't want to risk an injury if they kept him until the offseason.

I personally think the most likely outcome would be a good old-fashioned "Hockey Trade" or an Ekholm or Trouba style trade where a team upgrades their defence at the cost of 1st/prospect combo.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 12, 2023 at 10:27 p.m.
Thread: Curious would Habs fans like this
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>You'd be able to recoup a 2nd and maybe more for Kubalik at the deadline. Same for Brannstrom, you'd be able to make a nice profit at some point

Note that If Dorion didn't mess things up, I would never look to do that

But the point for Montreal is that despite the LD prospects and the UFA status of Kubalik, you don't have to keep players forever, you buy low sell high since you are in a rebuild. Dorion is easy to benefit from so the trade is made for that. Unless you think Ylonen and Kovacevic would return more than two 2nds or something like that?</div></div>

I understand where you're coming from but I respectfully disagree about the potential upside of the deal from MTL's perspective.

Firstly I don't believe that Brannstrom carries much value in the league right now, nor do I believe this to change in the short term. Recent trade trends suggest that undersized defensemen aren't in much demand by most teams, especially if those defensemen aren't elite offensively. I firmly believe it would be far easier to get value at the deadline for Kovacevich than Brannstrom. Not only is Kovacevich half a foot taller but he also shoots right and had all of 3 fewer points than Brannstrom last season while costing less than league minimum and less than half of Brannstrom's cap.

For Kubalik's part I don't disagree that he could likely recoup value at the deadline but that would require extra effort to showcase him and likely retention on his contract by MTL. This is where his opportunity cost comes into play since MTL only have 1 retention slot remaining, which they are likely keeping for Monahan. Using a broker would eat into the expected return and reduces the overall upside of the Sens-Habs trade.

In short I believe Kovacevich is not only more important to MTL currently than Brannstrom would be, but also likely holds more value across the league so this part doesn't work for me. Next while I would trade Ylonen for Kubalik I would not include a 3rd because this would significantly reduce the upside of this trade for MTL. While Kubalik would return more than Ylonen (likely around a 2nd based on comparables) this would only result in marginal value if any (about 15 slots between the 2nd and 3rd round picks minus the broker fee of a 4th or 5th).