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MK57

MK57
Member Since
Jun. 20, 2018
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Washington Capitals
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Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 16, 2020 at 4:06 p.m.
Thread: Because its the CAP part 2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>Eli, you suggest some pretty ballsy stuff sometimes, and I usually do my best to have a rational discussion with you and/or even agree with some of your more "controversial" ideas, so I'm hoping you'll give me a little more latitude than some other people on here when I say:

The idea of Vanecek playing in the NHL over Samsonov next year, for any reason aside from injury, is absolutely ludicrous. Full stop.</div></div>

Samsonov would hate it, but they could loan him back to the K if it made the cap work, and still have him back for the playoffs.

Latitude? I agree. It's ludicrous. Samsonov is ready to start in the NHL. It would be SO unfair if this happened. But subjectively, Gourde's pretty decent.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 15, 2020 at 12:29 p.m.
Thread: Tatar Tots
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>Yeah I mean, don't get me wrong, he'd be a great add for the 3rd line that had minimal offensive impact last year, but I worry that %xGF &lt; %xGA and we still have a net loss. And yeah, can' t make everyone happy. I mean there was a Montreal fan that had Gallagher at 7x$14mm yesterday before the contract was announced so you can take what they say with a grain of salt...</div></div>

Yeah. TBH I think the Caps' 3rd line is almost as good with Panik as with Tatar. Defense is as important as offense. But maybe Tatar's a slightly better goal scorer, and if they can move him to PP1L, they can move Kuznetsov to PP2 with Schultz, Wilson, and Vrana, and get two good units going. Of course, they could just try Panik at PP1L. But they probably won't, because nobody knows he's good.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 13, 2020 at 12:15 p.m.
Thread: Could this team win another cup
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>Sure, that's a fair point. Could probably pick and choose metrics to make a case for any of the three. I'd take Sergachev out because he's not asked to do the same types of things Kempny or Stralman are asked to do, at a broad level. A little tough to compare the situations because the last time Stralman played a full season in TB was 17-18; Kempny only has one full season in WSH under his belt (18-19). Comparing those seasons, I'd say it was Kempny by a long shot on both sides of the ice. Over the course of their career? Smell test probably says Stralman.

Seems like mostly a question of "what have you done for me lately" - Carlson has been better, more recently (so has Kempny, I'd argue). Hedman actually has more playoff points in fewer career games (again, basically negligible) and has been more consistent over his career, in my opinion.

And now I've been stat-diving for so long I don't even remember why I commented on this in the first place.</div></div>

FWIW, I've posted Jensen for Stralman and Kempny for Stralman on the Fla side, about a month ago. A Fla fan accepted Jensen, but the Kempny offer got crickets. By reputation, Stralman&gt;&gt;Kempny, although I agree in actual performance lately, it's pretty close. And you can't just chalk that up to team, because Weegar and Pysyk looked pretty decent on Fla. I'd take Stralman, because he's played bigger minutes and done just as well, but Kempny's younger and less than half the cap hit, so under a flat cap that might make him more valuable, if he were healthy.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 13, 2020 at 10:59 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 9, 2020 at 11:24 a.m.
Thread: How today will go
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>Duclair vs. Galchenyuk is an interesting proposition - given the choice, I'll take Galchenyuk. A little more versatile, and if we're looking at regression toward the mean for these players' careers, Galchenyuk has the better chance to trend in the right direction. I just don't trust one season of Duclair playing at 0.15 PPG above average for a $3mm contract that we might need for other things.

Despite what happened in the playoffs, offense wasn't the problem for the Caps last year, either. I think shipping off both Panik &amp; Hagelin would be a mistake. Perhaps a combo of these moves is best (i.e. keep one defensive forward and add one scoring forward)?</div></div>

Good analysis. And I agree that Galchenyuk had an off year and could easily bounce back, especially with the kind of linemates Washington could give him. Asking Duclair to play a checking role would bring him back to his regular point totals, and he doesn't have the PK experience of Panik or Hagelin, so anywhere over 3M would be silly.

I still think Namestnikov and Ceci could be good fits with this team, and available at low prices, maybe 2.75M and either 700x1 or 1.0x2, respectively?
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 27, 2019 at 11:46 a.m.
Thread: Buffalo TDL small sell
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>Caps are probably better off keeping Hagelin where he's at and keeping their 3rd rounder. You're not wrong, the other two are putting up more points, but they're also letting more points be scored against them. Hagelin's career goals for / goals against differential is 1.3, and this season he's at 1.27. Girgensons is career 0.75, this year 1.09; Sheary career is 1.11, this season 1.2. Hagelin also has better possession numbers over his career and this year. By almost all metrics, Caps would actually be better with him on the ice than the other two. Hagelin is a very underrated player because he doesn't finish and he's not flashy.

Edit: maybe one could replace Leipsic on the 4th line though?</div></div>

I like Leips and don't love pushing him out of the lineup. If the Caps could improve 3rd RW (can Grgs play right?) that would be more ideal.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 23, 2019 at 12:44 p.m.
Thread: nex year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>Definitely fair points, and I probably didn't explain my idea in totality or very clearly aside from the immediate "how to get Connolly" - I was thinking that this is a long-term move as well, with Oshie likely to move on in the next year or two due to trade or expansion. What about something centered around an Oshie for Connolly swap where Connolly plays the middle six this year and moves into a permanent 2nd line role when Oshie departs? This assumes, of course, they are retaining Backstrom (which they will), and extending Vrana at a workable cap hit. I'm sure there is something I'm not thinking of, though.

EDIT: I guess he'd move into that permanent 2nd line role immediately, eh?</div></div>

I mean, it sounds expensive. After expansion, if Seattle doesn't play nice, the team is going to want to have some prospects in the tank. Oshie for Connolly is pretty even, on the ice, but Connolly's contract is cheaper and he's younger, so I'm sure Fla only does that for futures. And like you said, with expansion coming up, every team has some uncertainty to prepare for. If Oshie's gone, the Caps don't have any idea whom Seattle goes for. Unless they protect Samsonov and Seattle takes Holtby, but would they take him? Depends on cap hit, next year's stats, and whether they take Price/Bob. If there's a straight up Oshie for Connolly on the table, yeah, the Caps probably take that. But when they start having to add a 2nd and a prospect, it gets questionable. Better to keep Oshie in position to break 30 goals this year, and get a pair of 2nds for him in August, or a little more if there's a short term contract coming back. Did you see the Isles post going for Zuccarello today? Don't want any part of it, but Oshie's better than Zuccarello...
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 23, 2019 at 12:05 p.m.
Thread: nex year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>For a scoring touch to the 3rd line that has proven chemistry, I wonder what it would take to have Connolly come back to DC? I have seen several AGMs mentioning Hoffman but for the cap hit, I'd rather have Connolly, who is a known commodity on the team. I expect the real issue there is going to be term and committing the dollars outside of this year and next. But for my money, I think he's a safer bet than the majority of the open market.</div></div>

If the price is the same? Of course. Connolly obviously can score 20 goals in Washington, but it looks like he can score 30 in Florida, where there's a steady top-six spot for him, so he'd probably be more valuable to Florida, and pretty expensive to get back. At the same time, it took injuries in the top six and significant time at 2L for Connolly to break 20G in WSH. I wouldn't expect him to fix line 3. It was Burakovksy's and Oshie's puck movement that got Eller close to 20G. Moving Vrana back should get Eller and Panik going. If Hagelin can move up to 2L, and work well with Backstrom, it might not hurt Oshie much? Coleman and Labanc are certainly just luxury ideas, but Coleman is showing improvement, year to year, and Labanc is having a down year so he might be cheap to re-sign, as a guy young enough to still improve on the offense he put up last year.

The trick is to find the next Connolly.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 26, 2019 at 6:05 p.m.
Thread: Still Looking Great in 21-22
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>It'll be really interesting to see what kind of a contract Ovechkin gets, and he'll probably make the market on that. There just aren't a ton of comparables out there for a 35 year old that puts up around 1.00PPG every year with about 50 goals. Unless he just severely declines next year, I could see him getting north of $9mm still, especially on a short-term deal. I look at Pavelski's contract this year, $7mm at essentially the same age, but he's at ~0.78PPG career vs. Ovi's 1.11PPG. Same with Daniel Sedin and Patrick Marleau for their contracts at ages 33-34.

Not disagreeing with your proposed necessarily, just saying it'll be really interesting to see where he lands. He'd probably be on an 8 x $10 ish right now if they'd had the term limit in place when he signed his current contract.</div></div>

Yeah trying to guess his contract is very hard. I just took a guess. But can very much see $9M too.