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MelonVK

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Jul. 5, 2017
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Forum: NHL SigningsJul. 29, 2022 at 6:01 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsMar. 19, 2022 at 11:22 a.m.
Thread: San Jose Sharks signed Tomas Hertl (8 Years / $8,137,500 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MelonVK</b></div><div>I'm just thinking as an option - trade him for some up and coming star. You don't even have to involve picks, just trade him for an exciting, young name you can market instead. And just in some sense stop digging your own grave 3 years down the line. I believe Hertl will be a net positive at this money, but you can never use him meaningfully.

If ticket sales are tanking I think thats even more reason to pull a stop to this madness. Where will tickets be in 3 years? or 5? if you can't handle that, you need to sell while there's still something left to sell.</div></div>

Ownership is pulling the strings here. Sharks will have to be creative as hell with cap this offseason but Hasso wants to spend to the cap as always and wants to compete right away. That's how Hasso has been since becoming majority owner. What makes it even harder is our GM has taken sick leave the entire season. Joe will has been with the sharks in some capacity since day 1 but he's been coy about future movement.

I honestly have no idea what they're going to do in the future but as a long-time sharks fan I am more than a little concerned. The Jumbo Patty Pavs days are long gone, they got to take a new approach and step into the future and make some hard decisions on guys like Meier, Vlasic and Couture.

The only saving grace visible right now is William Eklund, Thomas Bordeleau, Tristen Robins and Daniil Gushchin are all very promising and each have 3 year ELC (which is why they sent Eklund back even when he was clearly NHL ready) and Doug Wilson Jr (director of scouting) is extremely adept at drafting high value futures. He rarely misses. He is responsible for Ferraro, Norris, Eklund, Robins, Gushchin, Coe, Laroque, Barabanov, Knyzhov etc.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2021 at 7:55 p.m.
Thread: Instant contender
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MelonVK</b></div><div>Yeah I feel the Sharks fans frustration as most people on this board seem to believe a 1st and a mid-tier prospect is enough for a C of good age they then plan to play in their top 6. I wouldn't mind paying up - you could strong arm me into another second, especially if you take Moore back for example.</div></div>

this trade is 100% conditional to the Kane drama though,
if Kane is suspended or his contract is terminated the sharks have no shot at the playoffs this season and i could see them trading Hertl for the max they can get. and a C that most hockey analysts say is top 20 and is 27/28 should get more than a meddling prospect and a late 1st IMO.
your offer of a late 1st plus a 2nd a good prospect and a younger NHL player is the kind of offer that i see as fair.
had Hertl demanded a trade and was unhappy in SJ i could see him going for a lot less but the sharks don’t WANT to trade him and he likes it here so his value is greater!
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 11, 2021 at 3:35 p.m.
Thread: NHL All-Star Team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MelonVK</b></div><div>It's also not based on situation - so players getting fed easy minutes with high scoring expectations, like Kane, are overvalued. If anything, poor defensive players typically have better +/- stats (along with players on good teams) because they play less versus good opposition and in the defensive zone.</div></div>

I'm trying to incorporate removing/adding value to players based on their linemates. I was originally thinking trying to use actual line combinations but I may just end up using some form of TOI and skill among teammates. I also understand stats like +/- aren't exactly great depictors of a player's skill and eventually I plan to transition more towards shot attempt based metrics like USAT For/Agst, but with that said I did weigh +/- as one of the low value stats used in my metric. I appreciate the feedback
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 7, 2021 at 10:36 p.m.
Thread: Offseason re-do with some thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MelonVK</b></div><div>Well, in fairness I think Tampa, the Avs and Vegas are the perennial contenders, but they're all shedding salary or getting older this year. I think Toronto is young in the right places, potentially better in goal, and was still sitting comfortably above the other canadian teams this past season. So my thinking is with those 3 teams probably getting worse, this Bruins team might bridge the gap to Toronto for a top 5 rather than top 3. If you have Toronto much further down, we just disagree completely.</div></div>

Was more of a tongue in cheek comment that you took seriously but tough to judge tone online.

On a serious note, I agree with your top 3, I think the leafs are talented but at this point I do think there’s something fundamentally they’re missing to take a step in the playoffs which I’d need to see before putting them as a top 5 contender personally. I have them bunched with teams like the Bruins, Isles, Pens, Caps, Canes, Panthers (might be missing a team or two). I’d likely take most of those teams ahead of the Leafs at this point but also wouldn’t be surprised if they beat any of those teams eventually in the playoffs.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul. 14, 2021 at 2:58 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul. 1, 2021 at 9:00 p.m.
Thread: Edmonton Oilers signed Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (8 Years / $5,125,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MelonVK</b></div><div>It's so crazy to me how people go "cap hit is AMAZING, but term kinda WORRYING???" as implying you can just chose to go low on both. Clearly player and team have two parameters they go back and forth on - players wants as many years for as much money as possible (typically, especially closer to their 30's), and teams typically the opposite. You should evaluate term and cap hit together.

RNH is a good player. Not amazing, but really good. And I think for that, this is a good contract. For most competing teams you're willing to give up some length to reduce the cap hit. HOWEVER, in Edmonton's case I feel like this very much depends on the status of McDavid. If he's prepared to say an Oiler, this makes little sense. You already have a young superstar for enough years for this contract to hurt. If he's potentially looking to leave I think it's more reasonable to make a push for the now and take some damage later.</div></div>

Extremely well said.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 11, 2021 at 7:21 p.m.
Thread: If Matthews and marner were paid reasonably
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MelonVK</b></div><div>Matthews is like a top 5 player in the league. Judging performance on goals scored - an already flawed metric cause of its sampling issue, in a small sample; a few playoff games, is just bad everything. Bad methodology, bad maths, bad philosophy. Why?

Marner, on the other hand, should've never gotten that crazy amount of money. And the reason he did get that in the first place comes down to the same type of issue. Ultimately poor methods of evaluating player impact. He was good his contract year, but Tavares was great.

I rate Nylander slightly above Marner. And I have for a few years. I think that's a reasonable position. But if you do it solely because Marner didn't produce in a playoffs series, you're doing two wrongs to get a right.</div></div>

A+ input ✔

Even bad epistemology lol yeah

Makes me wonder what alternatives were available to Toronto when Marner was a pending RFA and what alternatives could be (Bjorkstrand + Werenski) ?

Bjorkstrand at the time just an up and comer

But absolutely superb underlying numbers