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MelonVK

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Forum: NHL SigningsAug. 27, 2021 at 12:05 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>So, I've had a look at the raw data, and I can't agree. He is pretty good offensively but he isn't the best player on the team by any stretch, and his defensive numbers are really poor for a guy whose most common D partners are Slavin and Hamilton. The net results were largely average last year, which isn't really average when you consider his above average linemates.

5.98 CF/60 rel (2nd of 12 forwards)
2.99 CA/60 rel (12th)
1.01 CF% rel (3rd)

0.75 GF/60 rel (2nd)
0.30 GA/60 rel (9th)
3.37 GF% rel (5th)

0.36 xGF/60 rel (3rd)
0.14 xGA/60 rel (12th)
1.72 xGF% rel (6th)

1.55 HDCF/60 rel (4th)
-0.21 HDCA/60 rel (8th)
3.58 HDCF% rel (5th)

<a href="https://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20202021&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=oi&amp;rate=r&amp;team=CAR&amp;pos=F&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=325&amp;gpfilt=none&amp;fd=&amp;td=&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://naturalstattrick.com</a>

FYI Slavin and Hamilton had mostly stronger numbers without Svechnikov than with him: <a href="https://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20202021&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;stdoi=oi&amp;rate=y&amp;v=t&amp;playerid=8480830" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://naturalstattrick.com</a>

He's not (yet) the elite player you seem to think he is.</div></div>

I guess it just feels very cherry-picky to me that you ignore model outputs for individual stats. I have no idea if these are isolated numbers, or if they consider teammates or opposition, coaching effects or anything of the sort. I see no writeup anywhere. The numbers I posted considers all of that, including teammates - instead of you doing some napkin math and saying he played with Dougie and Slavin. The powerplay is also one of his greatest strengths, and it's completely ignored in this analysis for some reason.

As I see it, the one thing preventing Svechnikov from being seen as the Canes best player by a fair bit is Aho's shots bouncing into the opposition goal more frequently than Svechnikov's shots.
Forum: NHL SigningsAug. 26, 2021 at 6:33 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsAug. 26, 2021 at 6:32 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsAug. 26, 2021 at 6:28 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsAug. 26, 2021 at 4:37 p.m.
Forum: NHL SigningsAug. 26, 2021 at 4:08 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I'm not sure what everyone's freaking out about here, TBH. He's a very good young player but owes a lot to the fact that he plays primarily with Sebastian Aho, who is clearly the offensive driver on that line, and also the defensive anchor.

Last year: 55, 15-27-42 +1 - 67th in the NHL / 0.76 P/GP - 82nd in the NHL
Past 3: 205, 59-81-140 +10 - 77th in the NHL / 0.68 P/GP - 99th in the NHL

Hardly a world-beater. I get that he's young still and has lots of upside, but Brady Tkachuk has scored about as well without having the advantage of a superstar center. Here's a short list of all the players who have scored at similar rates or better in the 3 years after their draft:

2014
Draisaitl: 191, 50-87-137 <strong>0.72 P/GP</strong>
Pastrnak: 172, 59-64-123 <strong>0.72</strong>
Nylander: 103, 28-46-74 <strong>0.72</strong>
Ehlers: 154, 40-62-102 <strong>0.66</strong>

2015
McDavid: 209, 87-169-256 <strong>1.22 P/GP</strong>
Barzal: 84, 22-63-85 <strong>1.01</strong>
Eichel: 209, 73-104-177 <strong>0.85</strong>
Boeser: 71, 33-27-60 <strong>0.85</strong>
Marner: 159, 41-89-130 <strong>0.82</strong>
Rantanen: 165, 49-73-122 <strong>0.74</strong>
Aho: 160, 53-61-114 <strong>0.71</strong>
Connor: 96, 33-29-62 <strong>0.65</strong>

2016
Matthews: 212, 111-94-205 <strong>0.97 P/GP</strong>
Laine: 237, 110-74-184 <strong>0.78</strong>
Tkachuk: 224, 71-103-174 <strong>0.78</strong>
DeBrincat: 164, 69-59-128 <strong>0.78</strong>
Keller: 167, 37-77-114 <strong>0.68</strong>
Dubois: 164, 47-62-109 <strong>0.66</strong>

2017
Pettersson: 139, 55-77-132 <strong>0.95 P/GP</strong>
Makar: 57, 12-38-50 <strong>0.88</strong>
Hischier: 209, 51-84-135 <strong>0.65</strong>

2018
Hughes: 129, 11-86-97 <strong>0.75 P/GP</strong>
Svechnikov: 205, 59-81-140 <strong>0.68</strong>
Tkachuk: 198, 60-65-125 <strong>0.63</strong></div></div>

Your premise is backwards, and even if it was correct it accounts for at most half of on-ice impact. I think it's incredibly intuitive to think players playing at a higher pace both ends aren't necessarily better but will score more. Carolina plays low scoring games. Svech is a high scorer in those circumstances. Also, no, it's not "clearly Aho". Another thing to check this with is that the Canes were pretty bad before Svech, and to be fair Dougie (even Niederreiter to some extent), started tilting the ice for them. There are so many ways to stay out of the "look points" trap, and you still managed to fall into it.

<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/cR5xZAf.png" alt="dEqiCDC"><img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/LBuRogm.png" alt="dEqiCDC">
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 12, 2021 at 8:50 p.m.