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MelonVK
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Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 31, 2021 at 12:20 p.m.
Thread:
Chicago Blackhawks signed Connor Murphy (4 Years / $4,400,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SevenLeg</b></div><div>I'm surprised he <em>only</em> got 400k more than McCabe. Amazing deal.</div></div>
McCabe is really good. Defence is not known to persist very well into defensemens 30's. The length is good, but I don't think this deal is as amazing as you suggest. Good though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 27, 2021 at 1:49 p.m.
Thread:
A Better Center Than Christian Dvorak This Time
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhroblak</b></div><div>You’re gonna piss off a lot of people in Vancouver by saying that.</div></div>
Yeah? Well you're gonna pi.. wait nevermind.
I guess I'm kind of annoyed by Horvat's unjustified reputation as being defensively good. He's a fine player, but I don't know why he'd be an interesting option over Dvorak or an array of other names more available.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 27, 2021 at 12:18 p.m.
Thread:
A Better Center Than Christian Dvorak This Time
Wait, I don't see any C better than Dvorak
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 27, 2021 at 12:05 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>So, I've had a look at the raw data, and I can't agree. He is pretty good offensively but he isn't the best player on the team by any stretch, and his defensive numbers are really poor for a guy whose most common D partners are Slavin and Hamilton. The net results were largely average last year, which isn't really average when you consider his above average linemates.
5.98 CF/60 rel (2nd of 12 forwards)
2.99 CA/60 rel (12th)
1.01 CF% rel (3rd)
0.75 GF/60 rel (2nd)
0.30 GA/60 rel (9th)
3.37 GF% rel (5th)
0.36 xGF/60 rel (3rd)
0.14 xGA/60 rel (12th)
1.72 xGF% rel (6th)
1.55 HDCF/60 rel (4th)
-0.21 HDCA/60 rel (8th)
3.58 HDCF% rel (5th)
<a href="https://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=r&team=CAR&pos=F&loc=B&toi=325&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://naturalstattrick.com</a>
FYI Slavin and Hamilton had mostly stronger numbers without Svechnikov than with him: <a href="https://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=y&v=t&playerid=8480830" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://naturalstattrick.com</a>
He's not (yet) the elite player you seem to think he is.</div></div>
I guess it just feels very cherry-picky to me that you ignore model outputs for individual stats. I have no idea if these are isolated numbers, or if they consider teammates or opposition, coaching effects or anything of the sort. I see no writeup anywhere. The numbers I posted considers all of that, including teammates - instead of you doing some napkin math and saying he played with Dougie and Slavin. The powerplay is also one of his greatest strengths, and it's completely ignored in this analysis for some reason.
As I see it, the one thing preventing Svechnikov from being seen as the Canes best player by a fair bit is Aho's shots bouncing into the opposition goal more frequently than Svechnikov's shots.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 27, 2021 at 8:22 a.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DroverD2</b></div><div>But you name 3 players who are incredibly skillfull</div></div>
No, I responded to a post naming 3 very skilled players. But two of them aren't/weren't close to being the best players on their lines, but their point totals wouldn't tell you that.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 27, 2021 at 4:37 a.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DroverD2</b></div><div>So because you play with a good player your less skillful?</div></div>
When using points as your evaluation tool? Literally yes
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 26, 2021 at 6:33 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>Marner had 98 points the year he signed his deal
Svechnikov only had 50 points this season so of course he was gonna make less lul
Considering Rantanan and Kucherov made betwen 9.25 and 9.5 the year marner signed if we wanted the ideal contract for Marner he would make between 9.25-9.5mill which still was more than what Svechnikov signed for
So next time I suggest you do your research</div></div>
Marner played next to an insane Tavares that season.
Rantanen is good, but MacKinnon is something else.
Kucherov is playing on the most stacked team in the cap era.
You're proving in real time why point totals are terrible metrics for evaluating player skill.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 26, 2021 at 6:32 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juiceman</b></div><div>Tell me buddy. How does one score 150 more points than another guy but isn’t as good as them because of their “playing scenarios”. I’m pretty sure you can’t find me an actual realistic scenario that you’d choose a guy who scored 150 less points than anothe guy. Even McDavid can’t get his line mates to score 150 more points than another guys…. Himself can’t even score that many</div></div>
Yeah. Say one guy scores 150 but his opponents score 200. While another scores 41 and his opponents 3.
In a moore realistic scenario where a player is fed offensive zone starts and powerplay time while playing with good teammates 150 could even be obtained by an offensively negatively contributing player. Patrick Kane comes to mind - he's scoring below expectations, constantly getting fed the softest minutes, but people still think he's good because number big.
What you wana do in your head is put these players against each other. The guy scoring 150 probably doesn't do that versus the guy who lets in 3 while on the ice. The guy scoring 41 probably doesn't do that vs the guy letting in 200.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 26, 2021 at 6:28 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>So now you're deflecting! :tearsofjoy
Your whole point was that Carolina is a low-scoring team and Svechnikov's point totals are actually awesome because of that - but you're dead wrong, they AREN'T a low-scoring team, they are in fact well above average for scoring.</div></div>
Yeah but I'm backing away from that. They're a decent scoring team, for sure. 11th is above average. But they're also deeper than most teams. You can check scoring share of Svech and Aho compared to McD and Draisaitl.
I personally don't care much about point totals, because they're usually more a reflection of teammates and situation rather than individual player skill. I was trying to appeal to things you cared about. Regardless of that, in terms of isolated scoring impacts, and especially offensively, Svech blows everyone else on the Canes out of the water. I brought receipts.
I don't know if you think this was some "gotcha", but I'm an adult, I can admit I made a poor point while I believe my overall one stands.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 26, 2021 at 4:37 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>The thing about lying on the internet is that literally everyone can fact-check you. Over the past 3 years Carolina scored the 11th most goals in the NHL<strong> - tied with the Edmonton Oilers -</strong> and yet you seem to think they're a low-scoring team? Sure, bud.
And if you looked at the numbers you'd see that Svechnikov has one of the lowest IPP's on the team over the past 3 years, 16th of 22 forwards at 5v5, so he's certainly not driving the play like you seem to think. Another thing you could look at is the disproportionate number of 2nd assists he gets.</div></div>
Luckily those things are accounted for in the model I report results from. Luckily coaching effects, usage, scoring in both directions is included.
Regardless I can just change my phrasing. My point wasn't the actual goal totals, it was the pace that they played at. Edmonton let a much higher goal total back the other direction. Compare this to total shots as well and you'll see who's lucking out and who's performing more consistently.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 26, 2021 at 4:34 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>You're having difficulty seeing the forest through the trees. 41 points...PER SEASON is the difference. There are no metrics in the world (no matter how hard you skew them) that can say you won't pay an extra $750k for an extra 41 points per season.</div></div>
There are plenty. I can think of scenarios where 150 point differences are justified. I have no idea how you came to this conclusion.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 26, 2021 at 4:08 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I'm not sure what everyone's freaking out about here, TBH. He's a very good young player but owes a lot to the fact that he plays primarily with Sebastian Aho, who is clearly the offensive driver on that line, and also the defensive anchor.
Last year: 55, 15-27-42 +1 - 67th in the NHL / 0.76 P/GP - 82nd in the NHL
Past 3: 205, 59-81-140 +10 - 77th in the NHL / 0.68 P/GP - 99th in the NHL
Hardly a world-beater. I get that he's young still and has lots of upside, but Brady Tkachuk has scored about as well without having the advantage of a superstar center. Here's a short list of all the players who have scored at similar rates or better in the 3 years after their draft:
2014
Draisaitl: 191, 50-87-137 <strong>0.72 P/GP</strong>
Pastrnak: 172, 59-64-123 <strong>0.72</strong>
Nylander: 103, 28-46-74 <strong>0.72</strong>
Ehlers: 154, 40-62-102 <strong>0.66</strong>
2015
McDavid: 209, 87-169-256 <strong>1.22 P/GP</strong>
Barzal: 84, 22-63-85 <strong>1.01</strong>
Eichel: 209, 73-104-177 <strong>0.85</strong>
Boeser: 71, 33-27-60 <strong>0.85</strong>
Marner: 159, 41-89-130 <strong>0.82</strong>
Rantanen: 165, 49-73-122 <strong>0.74</strong>
Aho: 160, 53-61-114 <strong>0.71</strong>
Connor: 96, 33-29-62 <strong>0.65</strong>
2016
Matthews: 212, 111-94-205 <strong>0.97 P/GP</strong>
Laine: 237, 110-74-184 <strong>0.78</strong>
Tkachuk: 224, 71-103-174 <strong>0.78</strong>
DeBrincat: 164, 69-59-128 <strong>0.78</strong>
Keller: 167, 37-77-114 <strong>0.68</strong>
Dubois: 164, 47-62-109 <strong>0.66</strong>
2017
Pettersson: 139, 55-77-132 <strong>0.95 P/GP</strong>
Makar: 57, 12-38-50 <strong>0.88</strong>
Hischier: 209, 51-84-135 <strong>0.65</strong>
2018
Hughes: 129, 11-86-97 <strong>0.75 P/GP</strong>
Svechnikov: 205, 59-81-140 <strong>0.68</strong>
Tkachuk: 198, 60-65-125 <strong>0.63</strong></div></div>
Your premise is backwards, and even if it was correct it accounts for at most half of on-ice impact. I think it's incredibly intuitive to think players playing at a higher pace both ends aren't necessarily better but will score more. Carolina plays low scoring games. Svech is a high scorer in those circumstances. Also, no, it's not "clearly Aho". Another thing to check this with is that the Canes were pretty bad before Svech, and to be fair Dougie (even Niederreiter to some extent), started tilting the ice for them. There are so many ways to stay out of the "look points" trap, and you still managed to fall into it.
<img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/cR5xZAf.png" alt="dEqiCDC"><img class="for_img" src="https://i.imgur.com/LBuRogm.png" alt="dEqiCDC">
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 26, 2021 at 4:02 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>Svech is a good player and this is a decent deal. Not really that close to ALREADY being one of the best. Draisaitl only makes $750k more and the point delta over the last two years is...194 pts vs 102 pts.</div></div>
Edmonton loses games 5-6 while Carolina wins 2-1. Any expected numbers, which accounts for situation and team effects, will tell you Svechnikov does not only have as much of an offensive impact, but also doesn't actually increase offense coming back
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 26, 2021 at 11:23 a.m.
Thread:
Carolina Hurricanes signed Andrei Svechnikov (8 Years / $7,750,000 AAV)
This is already one of the best contracts in the league. Absolute beast of a player. At 8 years it's better than the Pastrnak deal. This is crazy to me.
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 23, 2021 at 4:49 a.m.
Thread:
Philadelphia Flyers signed Travis Sanheim (2 Years / $4,675,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>I can't remember. Is Provorov more of an offensive defenseman or a defensive one? If he's defence first, he won't be. If he's offense first though...
Ya, it wouldn't be pretty.</div></div>
He's just ice time first. I think he's seen as defensively great, but I have no idea why other than getting minutes. Like I don't think he's really bad and still somehow rated like Ristolainen, I just have no idea what he did to earn the minutes and salary of a #1.5
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 22, 2021 at 5:56 p.m.
Thread:
Philadelphia Flyers signed Travis Sanheim (2 Years / $4,675,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>Send him to Toronto!</div></div>
I swear Toronto would eat Provorov alive. Guys that are well worth their contract and then some like Nylander get **** there
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 22, 2021 at 6:14 a.m.
Thread:
Philadelphia Flyers signed Travis Sanheim (2 Years / $4,675,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bdawwwgy1</b></div><div>because if he is really better than Provorov then youd like to not walk him to UFA. also, just because philly is going to have to restructure doesnt make the term okay</div></div>
You can always make room by trading Provorov :)
Forum:
NHL Signings
Aug. 21, 2021 at 10:05 p.m.
Thread:
Philadelphia Flyers signed Travis Sanheim (2 Years / $4,675,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Devil1122</b></div><div>Overpayment imo</div></div>
He's better than Provorov and makes 2/3rds of his salary. Philly likely going to have to restructure in two years regardless. I have no idea why people would dislike this contract.
Forum:
Fauteuil - DG
Aug. 20, 2021 at 7:31 a.m.
Thread:
NHL 22 ratings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>linehan10</b></div><div>is you jokin</div></div>
For sure. Produces offense with less opportunity and is one of the best defensive forwards currently in the game
Forum:
Fauteuil - DG
Aug. 20, 2021 at 6:03 a.m.
Thread:
NHL 22 ratings
Cirelli getting shafted here. Comfortably a top 3 Tampa forward
Forum:
Fauteuil - DG
Aug. 20, 2021 at 6:01 a.m.
Thread:
NHL 22 ratings
Man do Price get recognition whenever he plays well and forgotten when he lines up poor seasons ontop of each other. Hoffman is an AHLer at 5on5, but scoring points on the power play apparently makes him a top forward for Mtl
Forum:
Fauteuil - DG
Aug. 20, 2021 at 5:59 a.m.
Thread:
NHL 22 ratings
No idea what Kapanen ever did to deserve that rating. Pettersson seems better than 80 to me
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 16, 2021 at 11:50 a.m.
Thread:
My Season Expectations
If you actually think Haula will be anything close to an improvement over DeBrusk you will be terribly disappointed this season
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 12, 2021 at 8:50 p.m.
Thread:
Instant contender
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>So dismantle the team for a 2nd line center. Trading a 40 point FW, a 35 pt FW they just signed, buyout another 40 pt FW and hold dead cap on him for 6 years and dismantle the team for a 50 pt FW. You think that’s sound business? Take out his one great year he has averaged just over .5 ppg.
I like Hertl, would be a good fit. Does not work though. If they were going this route it should have been done before free agency.</div></div>
Yes.
So we have a difference in methodology. I think Hert would score 70-80 easily on Bostons second line. I think many of the players you mentioned would score less on a bad team. I think many players are available at league minimum or for a million or two to fill gaps of players we are currently paying 3-6m.
I think point totals are less than 50% of an indication of what is 50% of a players ability (offense). They are very dependent on situation and usage. You are correct in description, but I don't think it holds in prediction.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 12, 2021 at 8:27 p.m.
Thread:
Instant contender
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Gofnut999</b></div><div>I did read it 🤷🏻♂️</div></div>
Okay but you didnt interact with it?
I would ship; Moore, Foligno, Forbort, Carlo, Coyle and Ullmark if needed. Buy outs are options too.
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