SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

MikeyVC97

MikeyVC97
Member Since
Jun. 22, 2017
Favourite Team
Chicago Blackhawks
2nd Favourite Team
Vegas Golden Knights
Forum Posts
924
Posts per Day
0.4
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 18, 2023 at 12:58 p.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Ok. That makes sense. Personally, I think they will be trending upward as soon as this season but more likely the 24-25 season. Still, I don't think the rebuild can officially be considered over for two or three more years.</div></div>

(2002 - 2009) 7 year build to Cup
Duncan Keith was drafed 54th overall in 2002
Brent Seabrook was drafted 14th overall in 2003
Corey Crawford was drafted 52nd overall in 2003
Patrick Sharp was acquired via trade with Flyers in December 2005
***NHL LOCKOUT SALARY CAP ERA BEGINS***
Niklas Hjalmarsson drafted 104th overall 2005
Johanath Toews was drafted 3rd overall 2006
Patrick Kane was drafted 1st overall 2007
Brian Campbell signs with Hawks July 1st 2008 (Major Contract at the time)
Marian Hossa signs with Hawks July 1st 2009 (Major Contract at the time)

2020-2027
Lukas Reichel was drafted 17th overall 2020
Drew Commesso drafted 42nd overall 2020* Crawford
Seth Jones acquired via trade from CLB 2021*Campbell
Nolan Allan was drafted 31st overall 2021 * Seabrook
Kevin Korchinski drafted 7th overall 2022* Keith
Frank Nazar drafted 13th overall 2022* Sharp
Sam Rinzel drafted 25th overall 2022* Hammer
Connor Bedard drafted 1st overall 2023* Kane
Oliver Moore drafted 19th overall 2023* Toews
TBD Big Free Agent July 2024* Matthews? = Hossa
TBD Big Free Agent July 2025
TBD 2026
TBD 2027
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 12:31 p.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Snowhawk18</b></div><div>You realize the only one whose age is significantly (?) different is Draisaitl right?

So assuming all other variables are the same except age I would go in this order.

Draisaitl - in my opinion the third best forward in the world behind McDavid and MacKinnon
Rantanen - he was a major contributor on a Cup winner and carried the Avalanche this past season when their roster was decimated by injuries.
Matthews - gets the edge over Marner because of positional value.
Marner</div></div>

Matthews behind Rantanen wow... and you said it, injury history. Anyone of these players takes the Hawks to another level and none of them are anything less than studs. They would make the Hawks a better team and help elevate a crop of talent.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 12:27 p.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>squashmaple</b></div><div>This isn't me trolling, this is me asking Hawks fans sincerely. You have exactly one defense prospect and one goaltending prospect worth anything. Yeah, load up those forwards, but what are you doing about the back end? Toronto and Edmonton's failures since 2016-17 show that exact issue: inconsistent and sometimes tissue paper defense and mid goaltending cobbled together randomly but boy oh boy look at those forwards. Real contenders build from the back end, like Tampa, Colorado, St. Louis of years past. It's what New Jersey is buiding now even as they're just emerging as a contender. It's for this reason I don't see Chicago as any kind of contender til 2027 at the earliest. Defenses take time to build.</div></div>

Hawks have more that 1 D prospect...

Korchinski 1st Rd 2022
Rinzel 1st Rd 2022
Allan 1st Rd 2021

They can also make some sound decisions to bring in quality FA help when the time comes. They have more than those 3 the D room is getting deep for the Hawks.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 12:21 p.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Well, it is certainly a risk. But, if he can continue being a high end elite player deep into his 30's and the cap continues to rise, that $13 to 15 million aav will become more common place and he could probably get another good contract. Even if he has to come down to a more modest $10 or $11 million, that is still a good pay day and provides him with more options to win. I mean... at that point, what is more important, winning or being the highest paid player? And how much more money do you really need to make? I think he is built to play a very long successful NHL career and will probably be good until he retires in his late 30's. Betting on himself with shorter term deals is probably safe for him, if he wants to go that route.</div></div>

He would be starting a new trend if he take less for less term being a player of his caliber. I just don't see a player like him taking a "bargain". It's a business at the end of the day and in the cap era you need to maximize your cash while you can.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 12:18 p.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Snowhawk18</b></div><div>Better then all three… really? I would suggest you look at the stats for Rantanen and Draisaitl stats for the last couple/few seasons.

As for Marner; I laid that out in a previous post; offensively they are very close, defensively Marner just finished third in the Selke voting. I think you are ranking them strictly on goal scoring and not giving enough consideration to the complete package.

As for what I would offer those three in terms of $$ and term, that would depend on a lot of factors:

- How well do they (Rantanen, Draisaitl, Marner) play leading up to free agency. Do they stay healthy?
- Where are the Hawks in terms of their on ice product, are they at the point where it makes sense to invest in top tier free agents or are they still years away from being relevant?
- How are the Hawks young guns developing, are they looking like future stars that are going to command big bucks themselves? If so, do I value them more then potential upcoming free agents? It would suck to invest heavily if free agents only to see young players developed to elite/very good level by the organization leave because we can no longer afford to keep them… I’m looking at you Toronto Maple Leafs and John Tavares.

So I’m not prepared to put $$ and term amounts on players who are two years away from free agency until those questions get answered, just like I’m not prepared to offer $15m per season to Matthews, making him the highest paid player until he answers some questions of his own. Can he bounce back with an elite season; not just good; worthy of that price tag and can he lead his team to at minimum a conference final. If he does those things then I would be more then willing to reconsider my position at that time.</div></div>

Let me ask you this lets say all 4 of them want a 7 year deal with an AAV north of 13 mil. Who would you give it to and keep age in consideration?
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 12:11 p.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Well, as I said previously, it would be a smart long term decision for him to take that money if CHI offers it. But, i'd be willing to bet he will be looking at more short term goals, such as going to a team that is closer to winning. But, I do think AZ would be a good option for him, considering their similar trajectory, cap space, and the fact that he is from there. There are also plenty of teams who could easily and would be willing to make room for him, if there is mutual interest. But there definitely aren't many teams outside of CHI that are perfectly set up for such an acquisition. So, in that way, it does make sense. There is just a lot more to it than the financial aspect.

I've also heard rumblings that he may be looking for that big number on a shorter term deal of like 3 to 5 years. Which makes sense from a long term perspective too. Sure he might not have the same money guaranteed beyond that timeframe, but that would put him in a position to move on to the next contender seamlessly without team interests hindering or affecting his own goals/plans/preferences. So, I'm not saying I am against it entirely, there are just a lot of unknown variables that make it a more complicated situation than this would suggest.

If he is willing to be patient, and he isn't going to be toxic to the rebuild, prospects, or team, and he fits CHI's plans, and they can see a manageable path forward even with adding that much salary to the books, then yeah, go for it.</div></div>

Well said and that is the key looking at the overall long term plan / path. I considered Arizona could be on his radar considering he is from there but with all drama with their stadium and it not being a good market for endorsments I think the Hawks can offer way more.

I would be shocked if he took a 3-5 year deal. That means he would enter FA again in his 30's and won't make nearly as much.

25 year old stud should take the longest term for the most money and lock up his career earnings.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 11:37 a.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Maybe... But I still think if Matthews is going to leave TOR, it will be for a team that is ready to win in the 24-25 season, not a few years down the road. I definitely agree that it would be a smart long term decision for him to bet on the rebuilding team with the great prospect pool and all that, but high end athletes like him are notoriously impatient. Especially ones that have dealt with so much disappointment on their previous team. They want immediate assurances, they want the shiny object and the headlines, not the slow and steady safe/smart option.</div></div>

He will be 26, IMO I think 15 mil AAV gives you some patience in a top USA market to make more in endorsements not having to deal with the Toronto media and playing with Bedard. There is not a team in one years time who is in cup contention that can afford to give Matthews that type of cash. So if it's about winning he will take less money than he is worth to play for an immediate contender. If it's about his career he will take the most money in the most attractive market with the best long term chances of success. I don't see another franchise who can offer the cash, the city and the potential over 7 years than the Hawks. Do you? If so what team?
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 11:27 a.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>You obviously aren't even reading what I wrote completely. Matthews isn't gonna come sit around in a rebuild and be patient. If he leaves TOR, he will likley want an opportunity to "win now". "Winning now" and giving Matthews a reason to come to CHI would require a more talented roster. A more talented roster would require paying more players. Paying more players would require spending a lot closer to the ceiling. Attracting those other talented players would require more salary and term, leaving little room for re-signing young players when it comes time and setting CHI up for serious cap trouble within two or three years. They aren't doing that.

So, unless Matthews is willing to be patient and is ok with coming into a rebuild, it isn't going to work. And even if he is, that extra cap space will be eaten up quicker than you think, and, again, sets us up for serious cap troubles.</div></div>

Ok "win now" or win in the "term of the contract" let me ask you this in the next 7-8 years who is more likely to win a cup? Hawks or Leafs? Answer this question with Matthews on either roster. I would say the window for the Leafs to win a cup with Matthews on the team is only 2-3 seasons before they have to start another rebuild. The Hawks in another year will have the arrow point up for another decade at least.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 11:17 a.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Snowhawk18</b></div><div>Two summers from now Rantanen, Draisaitl and Marner are all scheduled to be UFAs, whether or not they get there is another thing. Same goes for Matthews though which makes this whole discussion really pointless at this time. I was actually hoping Aho was going to be available next summer but that dream is gone.</div></div>

So my suggestion is giving ...

Matthews (age 26 at time of signing) $15M AAV for 7 years (age 33 at end of contract)

you are suggesting giving

Rantaannan (age 28 at the time of signing) how much and how long?
Draisital (age 29 at the time of signing) how much and how long?
Marner (age 28 at the time of signing) how much and how long?

Matthews is better than all three of these players and will be younger at the time of signing as well. You have to look at how terrible the back end of these deals can be. Matthews will only be 33 at the end of this proposed signing which is still productive years of a player's career.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 11:10 a.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>After everything we've been through as CHI fans the last couple years, you can't honestly expect them to call the rebuild "complete" so soon. Be realistic. If it were purely fantasy and you aren't actually suggesting they do this, then I would understand, but suggesting this is a realistic course of action for CHI to take is delusional. Which I can't exactly blame you for after all the years under Bowman. But, just trust that Davidson is not Bowman, and he will not be prematurely loading up for a playoff run any time soon, or throwing away assets on awful "win now" trades.</div></div>

Who said anything about a trade? Keep the picks and prospects, and sign the available cap on a 25-year-old MVP-caliber center. That 100% is a logical way of building for the future.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 11:04 a.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>No. But that is irrelevant. That cap space will be eaten up or needed way faster than most people think. Now is not the time to be spending. And, again, the only way they attract a guy like Matthews is if they are spending a lot, loading up the roster, and going for deep playoff runs. I highly doubt Davidson is willing to spend to the ceiling and throw a wrench in the rebuild just to attract Matthews, that go against his entire philosophy. The only way they do this, is if Matthews is willing to be patient with the rebuild. But, if he leaves TOR, it is probably because he isn't willing to be patient anymore.



I don't think you realize how quickly and easily $13M can be used up. Even with the planned increases, it isn't enough, and the higher the ceiling, the bigger the piece of the pie will be for the players.</div></div>

You keep saying they are spending "at the ceiling" if they give Matthews 15 mil AAV they are still nowhere near the ceiling. Also 13-15 mill AAV is what Matthews is worth to any team in the league if they can afford to pay him. Just so happens the Hawks are one of only a few teams that can actually afford to pay him this offseason.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 10:44 a.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Sure. They "COULD". But, should they? I don't think so. They start spending now and they will be shooting themselves in the foot down the road when other players start needing contracts.

Unless, they are loading up and spending to the cap on very good players and throwing a wrench in the rebuild, Matthews won't be interested in joining a rebuilding team. But, CHI shouldn't be spending anywhere near the ceiling any time soon. If they were just buying him (and maybe one more good player) while still leaving a lot of cap flexibility, and he were willing to wait a few years to make a serious run, then I'd be interested. But I doubt that is the case.

Just stay the course and keep rebuilding through the draft and development.</div></div>

They still have 13 mil in cap space after signing Matthews they are basically paying Matthews what (Perry + Johnson + Foligno) make now that is not breaking the bank they have so much cap space even after signing an MVP player.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 10:43 a.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>Sure. They "COULD". But, should they? I don't think so. They start spending now and they will be shooting themselves in the foot down the road when other players start needing contracts.

Unless, they are loading up and spending to the cap on very good players and throwing a wrench in the rebuild, Matthews won't be interested in joining a rebuilding team. But, CHI shouldn't be spending anywhere near the ceiling any time soon. If they were just buying him (and maybe one more good player) while still leaving a lot of cap flexibility, and he were willing to wait a few years to make a serious run, then I'd be interested. But I doubt that is the case.

Just stay the course and keep rebuilding through the draft and development.</div></div>

Outside of Bedard can you guarantee any single prospect will be as good as Matthews or even has a decent shot of being at Matthews level?
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 10:42 a.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Snowhawk18</b></div><div>Hossa had also been to the Stanley Cup finals the two previous seasons before signing in Chicago, Mathew’s has been out of the first round once and then was MIA in round two against Florida. I’m not rewarding that with the highest per season contract.

On another note how is Marner overpaid but not Matthews?

Matthews is the far better player. The reason the Leafs suck is because of their defense not their offense. Hossa was on the Wings &amp; Pens who had some HOF talent on thier back end. Matthews is playing with overpaid D who kill their cap.
Their regular season point per game average is extremely close; Marner = 1.09 ppg, Matthews = 1.13 ppg; and Marner holds more defensive value and Mariner’s playoff point per game average is better, although again they are very close; Marner = 0.94 ppg, Matthews = 0.88 ppg.</div></div>
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 10:28 a.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Snowhawk18</b></div><div>Personally I think $5m per year for Bear is waaaay to much.

I know Matthews is extremely talented but I have a hard time paying him $15m per season when he hasn’t proven he can win when it matters most. Now I know it is a team game but when you are the top dog, getting paid the most, you’re expected to be the guy to drag the team along with you. How many times did we see Kane or Toews step up in a crucial time and have a monster game? Matthews hasn’t done that ever in his career, it has just playoff disappointment after playoff disappointment. I believe the Leafs have won one series with him on the team… one!</div></div>

Hossa didn't win prior to becoming a Hawk and that worked out well when they broke the bank for him when the cap was much smaller.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 10:24 a.m.
Thread: Most Cash and Upside for AM34
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BankersBox</b></div><div>Chicago should be another bottom 10 team this year, but 24-25 should be the start of their climb in the Central.

Its interesting you don't see the comparison with Chicago and Toronto's rebuild that brought them Matthews, Marner, Willy and Rielly. Toronto made the playoffs Matthews 1st year.

Chicago has high end forward prospects (Bedard, Reichel, Nazar and Moore) Depth prospects (Ludwinski, Hayes, Savoie, Greene) + the 9 other draft picks from this past year and 13 picks in the top 3 rounds in the next 3 years. Dont forget the 60 Million in cap space in 24-25

Not all of the prospects will work, but the foundation has been started.</div></div>

I know everyone is freaked about Toronto's current cap and lack of success problem but that's NOT Matthews' fault. The Leaf's overpaid Marner and others not Matthews. To think the Hawks can't sign a top FA because they have a lot of prospects is a flawed mentality. Look at what happened when the Hawks in the early days of the last rebuild signed Campbell and Hossa those were amazing FAs to add to a crop of drafted prospects. You can never be 100% obviously, there will be mistake signings like Huet. But like I said you don't even get opportunities to sign players like Matthews every year maybe once-a-decade type FA opportunity!
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2023 at 10:03 a.m.