May 25, 2018
2nd Favourite Team
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>No but if Point is offered an offer sheet of 10.5M and Tampa says we'll only be able to give you 7M, point doesn't have the option to go to other teams and negotiate. Once an offer sheet has been given, the player can refuse but he can't start using that against other teams other than Tampa......
That's the difference. Panarin and Duchene don't (once again based on things we've heard and how Buffalo has done recently) even need to give Buffalo the time of day. Point has no choice but to contemplate it if the offersheet is the only one given other than what Tampa is offering.
Let be be clear giving up four 1st rounders, to Tampa off all effing teams, is not a smart idea but if you think simply identifying the problem and fixing it is that easy, think again. The problem isn't that solvable. Mainly because part of the problem is time. Buffalo is in the same boat as Edm. They need to start winning now. Not in 2-6 years when those picks develop.
Truth is, I don't think they should be targeting Point. If they think they can get by with their goalie tandem, then they are begging to miss the playoffs again. Not to mention that the depth of the team is highly in question also.</div></div>
Tampa doesn’t tell Point at that junction that they’ll only give him 7. If they have to give him 9-10 to make him happy, they’ll shop Miller/Gourde and Callahan to do it. Or they drop him if he wants 11+ and take the four firsts and Panarin, who will sign for 9-10 in Tampa, who is a coastal team with low income tax and happen to be the reigning Presidents Trophy winners.
Don’t give up. It’ll only be 3-4 more years before you’re back in it. Durzi, Clague, Kempe, Vilardi, JAD, Thomas, Kupari, Grundstrom, Rempal, Petersen, Campbell, Dudas, Anderson, etc.. will lead you back to an exciting next couple years. You’ve got a top five pick that could be Hughes or Kakko too. It’s far more rewarding to stay a loyal fan through hard times and see your team come out on top than it is to jump around winning teams. I get the discouragement. I’ve gone through the same with Vancouver. But we’re only a year or two removed from the playoffs which is barely ahead of you guys. Kopitar and Doughty will prove to be great mentors for the future and you’ll be glad that you stayed a Kings fan. <div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BCAPP</b></div><div>The taxes thing is quite exaggerated by people not understanding how the taxes work. For players who play in an American market you are charged at the tax rate of when you earn the money. Ie when you're in New York, you pay New York taxes, when you're playing a game in la you pay California taxes. So the tax break only applies to home games (I am not sure about Canadian away games. May apply there as well). Remember also that while these states don't have state taxes they still have significant budgets and need to make their money somewhere so they pay higher taxes in other areas (one area is often property tax). Living there will eat into some more of their money in other ways.
Now Toronto is for sure a higher tax environment and Tampa a lower one, but a lot of the estimates out there of like 30% differences are large exaggerations. These guys (should at least) be paying accountants to optimize their tax situation and are likely looking at significantly less difference.</div></div>
There’s a massive misconception that players like Rantanen and Aho will sign for almost nothing (7-8) and Marner will sign for almost twice that. Also, there is misconception that Point could take less because he knows the team’s cap situation. That’s totally wrong. A team will be payed what he thinks that he is worth. The Cap is set up based on that philosophy. I’ll break down the aforementioned players the best I can banking that all of them push for what they are worth.
Point: I hate blowing the taxes horn, but it’s honestly true - though not to the normally conceived extent. 15% is the difference between Florida and Ontario. I’m going to put him at 9.5x8 because Kucherov made the same off a 100 point year. Point isn’t Kucherov - maybe one day, but he’s massively benefitting from Kucherov’s dominant year and a loaded team. He’s still hugely valuable, but not more than Kucherov.
Rantanen: Honestly I haven’t heard a ton about his contract ballpark. There’s no Colorado contracts similar at all to him, but I’m going to have to say that he’s looking at players around the league and taking a Point comparable. 9.25x8 is my guess. Less than Point even though he almost equals him in points, but as a winger he’ll make less.
Aho: Easily the most underrated of the group, he’s a 90 point center on a middling team with bad teammates. Carolina doesn’t overpay guys, and they just gave a 60 point winger less than 6, so I trust that they’ll be good with negotiating Aho. The kid deserves a ton and he’s not making less than 9x8 which is my guess.
Marner: His contract comparable is unfortunately a luxurious Matthews deal, and on a Point deal he makes 11. He’s not a center, and though Toronto overpays RFAs and property, income, and sales taxes are high as well as the general cost of living, he still makes less than Point’s tax adjusted comparable. And he’s not Matthews. My honest guess is 10.5x6. I hate saying it, but Marner thinks he worth Matthews money. So Dubas will have to back off on the term.
Tkachuk: Slightly inflated by an incredible top six and PP, he’s not quite what the others are, and though he lives in Canada I’m still going to have to drop below 9 on him. He won’t destroy Gaudreau’s deal, so I’m going for a 7.75x6. He worth more and will be a 10 million guy after the 6 year deal. He goes close to 9 on an 8 year deal, but Calgary doesn’t overspend and gave Gaudreau an underwhelming contract after a similar year, so I think Tkachuk ups him. I could easily see a 8x6 though.
Laine: is a mess, but he shouldn’t be given up in yet. Winnipeg is in a huge cap crunch and can’t afford to dump a Johnsson/Kapanen/Miller/Gourde like other teams - they don’t really have any to trade - so Laine will have to be bridged. He’s also in Canada so a 8.5x3 looks good to me.
I’m sorry if this looks skewed against Marner, I just can’t help it TBH. The evidence is piled against Dubas and he likely gets 8 digits this year unless a bridge happens.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hackadart</b></div><div>Love how people say Nylander is worth Pesce but you think Drouin is worth Girard (>Pesce) Jost and a first</div></div>
Pesce is a whole lot better than Girard. Pesce is on a 32 point pace, Girard is on a 24 point pace. Pesce blocks more shots, has more hits, has better Corsi and Fenwick numbers, better oish% and oisv%, far more defensive starts, more takeaways, fewer giveaways, a higher e+/- and Thru%, more GF/60, fewer GA/60, and kills penalties exceptionally well in the same ice time. The only stat that I can find that indicates that Girard is better is the power play, and Girard hasn’t done that well on the PP. Maybe Girard will eventually become better offensively, but he’s not even where Pesce was at his age.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>Again this is a blanket statement with no real substance. Draft position doesnt mean a player could be a flop looking back in hindsight. multiple teams are drafting in all those slots, did a tea take a guy too early, did a team draft based on positional need vs best player available. I dont see how this correlates to your point
It comes down to Avs recent draft history in the 1st round if its not a Top 2 pick....I would say Rantanen, Jost, Makar, Kaut is a pretty good track record in drafting at 10, 10, 4, and 16.</div></div>
Again, I agree. But Chabot, White, Brown, JBD, and Bowers are pretty good for 18, 21, 11, 26, and 28. Almost equal to the Avs players except more than 10 picks average lower. Ottawa has a shot at redeeming itself, even though it is very low.