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Octopus_Guy
Member Since
Jul. 3, 2019
Favourite Team
Detroit Red Wings
Forum Posts
240
Posts per Day
0.1
POSTS
THREADS
LIKES
ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 15 at 2:19 p.m.
Thread:
Realistic I think WITH JUSTIFICATIONS I hate being a fan of this team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Octopus_Guy</b></div><div>It's hard to compare Raymond with Seider because they play different positions but I'd say they are about even, both first liners. I want to lock them both up for 8 years. In years 6-8 of those contracts the salary cap will be higher and their cap hits will look like a good deal by then. If either one gets a bridge deal now, they are going to get PAID later.
I think those are pretty fair deals for Kane & Ghost if they want to stay. The AAV on Ghost is high but I'd rather have that on a 3 year deal instead of less money for more term since he's pushing 30.</div></div>
I'm with you on that, I just wish Mo would play like the "franchise" player that he's been touted to be. So many iq lapses, but that gets better with age. The only reason I'm giving him a little less money for little less time. I agree with you on Ghost but I don't think he'd come back for anything less. 50-something points for a d-man is worthy of a bit of a pay raise, but like I said, cannot overpay for him. We have other guys that can run a PP
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 4 at 1:09 p.m.
Thread:
wings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PuzzledActuary</b></div><div>Anyone willing to waste $2.5M on Perron needs their head checked.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Octopus_Guy</b></div><div>You'll be more mad when you find out what he's making this year. He's getting old & regressing a bit but he's a 0.55 point per game player this season. He's got grit to his game & was the one guy who got fed up that the Wings captain keeps getting targeted.
The crosscheck to the head of the wrong guy was stupid but at least he tried to stand up for the best player on the team. If the Wings don't give him 2.5 another team will.</div></div>
Bruh acting like 2.5m is a lot of money for a half ppg player that can forecheck, applies grit, veteran leadership on and off the ice, protects the puck better than most NHLers and only on a 1yr deal
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26 at 8:24 p.m.
Thread:
Next Year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>I doubt petry waives, it's probably buying him out and having to pay someone a 2nd to take Holl</div></div>
True. Although, I'm sure if Yzerman went to him and said "Look, I'm sorry but, if you don't allow a trade we are going to buy out your contract." he might be upset but if it's between that and not playing at all I think he probably takes the trade.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26 at 12:20 p.m.
Thread:
Next Year
It's taken Petry his entire career to land back in Detroit. He isn't waiving to go to Chicago or anywhere else. If by some miracle he did waive, Hawks would probably take him for a 3rd, not a 4th.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26 at 12:20 p.m.
Thread:
Next Year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>I doubt petry waives, it's probably buying him out and having to pay someone a 2nd to take Holl</div></div>
This is what I wanted Steve to do at the deadline. Move Holl out and bring in a rental upgrade over Petry and then buy him out in the offseason.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26 at 12:14 p.m.
Thread:
Next Year
I doubt petry waives, it's probably buying him out and having to pay someone a 2nd to take Holl
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 20 at 11:40 a.m.
Thread:
Jarry V2
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JoeROFLCOPTER</b></div><div>"what else" in a deal that is already too much.</div></div>
Switch Berggren or Veleno with Fabbri and that would give us room to sign Roy or resign Ghost.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 20 at 11:30 a.m.
Thread:
Jarry V2
"what else" in a deal that is already too much.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 16 at 10:00 a.m.
Thread:
Wings
Another anti-Detroit ACGM by a trolling pseudo-fan, benching DeBrincat, Raymond and Walman. How original.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 15 at 2:56 p.m.
Thread:
Another year of pain
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Octopus_Guy</b></div><div>Probably have to pay a price to trade Holl away. I think this roster is kind of realistic for next season & that scares me. It's running it back with a worse team in my opinion. I think Edvinsson will help but losing Ghost and Sprong is a big deal.</div></div>
Possibly correct on Holl, though Arizona is going to need both cap $$ to hit the floor and actual players as they have 0 D signed for next year (though 4 RFAs).
Ghost is having a great year and would definitely miss him though he's probably going to get good offers as an UFA. I hope he doesn't become another SY overpay on D.
I don't have a problem losing Sprong. Even with his goals I'm not a fan of his play.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 13 at 4:44 a.m.
Thread:
Lucas Raymond is minus 19
Plus-minus is meaningless because it depends on far too many variables. These include quality of linemates, team systems, deployment, personal shooting %, team shooting %, team save % and sheer luck. But the fact that you put enough faith in it to create this post this explains a lot.
I wouldn't give up either of those players for Kakko alone and he certainly isn't worth both together.
Lafrenière is <strong><em>way better</em></strong> than Kakko but even he isn't worth Raymond.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 13 at 8:08 a.m.
Thread:
Lucas Raymond is minus 19
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FinishyourchecksGM</b></div><div>Red Wings would take that right now</div></div>
> Using +/- to argue a point.
Yeah, you're bait.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Stanley_Cup_To_Manhattan</b></div><div>He’s the complete opposite of Raymond though lol. Defensive-responsibility, good play on the puck, and slower skater. Raymond dynamic offensively, smoother skater, poor defensively.</div></div>
You are severely undervaluing Raymond and severely overvaluing Kaako.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 13 at 8:12 a.m.
Thread:
Lucas Raymond is minus 19
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FinishyourchecksGM</b></div><div>Red Wings would take that right now</div></div>
You may take that but there is <strong><em>ABSOULTELY NO CHANCE</em></strong> the Wings trade Raymond for Kakko.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 13 at 11:29 a.m.
Thread:
Lucas Raymond is minus 19
When you out yourself as not having actually watched Raymond play hockey this year...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 13 at 11:55 a.m.
Thread:
Lucas Raymond is minus 19
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>No it really is pointless to many factors that a single player has no control over which I listed some in my first post.
Read this <a href="https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/11/01/behind-the-numbers-why-plusminus-is-the-worst-statistic-in-hockey-and-should-be-abolished/" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Behind the Numbers: Why Plus/Minus is the worst statistic in hockey and should be abolished.</a>
Since people barely click links, so I've copied and pasted part of it below. Now this was written by Garret Hohl and posted on The Hockey Graphs website. While I do agree with this is his work and by no means am I trying to take credit for his work.
This is sometimes news to those that use plus/minus as a stat. The number is not exclusive to 5v5, or even strength. The plus/minus statistic includes all even strength goals, all goals with either goaltender pulled (as hockey views goalie pulled as even strength), and short handed goals.
This causes some very odd skewing in plus/minus to particular player types.
Including only shorthanded goals means that the power play can only hurt a skater’s rating (or stay even). It also means that a penalty killer can only improve their rating with tallies in the plus column (or stay even). The longer they spend in those situations, the greater the likely skew, regardless of how effective they are in their respective special teams deployment.
The skew is increased further by empty nets. Pulling the goalie is a desperation tactic, that increases the chance of scoring while also increasing the chance of a goal against even more.
This means that players who typically play with the lead and the opposition’s goaltender pulled are more likely to garner pluses than minuses over the long run. Players who are playing from behind and have their own goalie pulled are the opposite.
There is a tendency for penalty killers to play in the lead situation, and power play unit skaters to go out with the trailing situation, so these two factors in general skew in the same direction for skaters.
A handful of short handed and empty net goals may not seem like much, until you realize that the standard deviation in even strength goal differential is only about nine goals.
There is no science or evidence-backed reasoning to the meaningfulness of using some goals and not others. It is simply because it seemed right to the first person who made the rules for the number, and then tradition has kept it that way.
One example I like to use is Mark Stuart of the Winnipeg Jets for the 2014-2015 season:
Mark Stuart carried the Jets’ team-worst goal differential of the 13 defenders when looking at even strength (-3), power play (+0), and penalty kill (-19). He ended the season with the 6th-best plus/minus, with a +5 rating.
Stuart logged huge minutes on the penalty kill and essentially none on the power play. This, plus empty net goals, skewed his plus/minus up despite being the worst differential player in essentially all the situations.</div></div>
This post has more words than the OP does brain cells.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 10 at 12:48 p.m.
Thread:
Wings
All three trades are terrible for the Wings! I wouldn't give Kasper and a 1st for Thompson let alone throw Seider into it. Anderson would be worth Berggren and a 2nd. Don't need him though, trade for Chychrun.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 10 at 12:19 p.m.
Thread:
Theres always next season meh
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lancebmx</b></div><div>Pretty easy no thanks from Detroit.
We can likely get some value for Fabbri somewhere and Holl seems like a bury/buyout candidate if a trade can't be facilitated.
Krug doesn't help us anywhere and only hinders our cap for the near future. Also would block young players in the future, specifically Edvinsson this next season.</div></div>
I agree. I can't see Krug coming to Detroit.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 10 at 10:44 a.m.
Thread:
Theres always next season meh
Pretty easy no thanks from Detroit.
We can likely get some value for Fabbri somewhere and Holl seems like a bury/buyout candidate if a trade can't be facilitated.
Krug doesn't help us anywhere and only hinders our cap for the near future. Also would block young players in the future, specifically Edvinsson this next season.
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Mar. 3 at 10:28 a.m.
Thread:
2019 the only correct top 5
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Octopus_Guy</b></div><div>Yeah how is Goal Caufield not top 10</div></div>
Goal Scorefield
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 2 at 12:09 p.m.
Thread:
Keep Kane
I think Berggren could be the next Daniel Sprong for the 24/25 Detroit Red Wings. He can play 4th line and run the PP2 . But if Kane resigns, Berggren doesnt really have a role on the team and is probably asking to be traded. I think it's either Kane or Berggren on the roster next year, not both.
Forum:
Mock-Draft
Mar. 2 at 12:53 p.m.
Thread:
2019 the only correct top 5
Caufield easily goes in the top 5 and likely the top 3
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 2 at 5:24 p.m.
Thread:
I dont care get him off this team
He's been good this year
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 2 at 2:12 p.m.
Thread:
Keep Kane
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Octopus_Guy</b></div><div>I like the best American born player of all time vs an AHL prospect</div></div>
It depends on what caphit and term Kane is looking for. Pavelski got 7Mx3y at age 35, Zuccarello(36) 4,25Mx2y, Kopitar(36) 7Mx2y and Malkin (36) 6,1Mx4y and they are all point per game players like Kane. If he wants 3 years, then I think its better to move on and play Berggren.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 12 at 5:18 a.m.
Thread:
Wings
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Octopus_Guy</b></div><div>I like Max Pax but I'd rather keep Fabbri. I don't think Detroit are buyers this year & I don't think Calgary accepts that.</div></div>
I'd take Fabbri and that 3rd over Pacioretty as well.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 4 at 9:02 a.m.
Thread:
Wings
I'm not paying a lot for vatrano, 30 on a career year.
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