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OrganizedConfusion55

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Forum: NHL SigningsOct. 9, 2023 at 1:09 p.m.
Thread: Buffalo Sabres signed Rasmus Dahlin (8 Years / $11,000,000 AAV)
Not to get too deep into the mathematical side of this, but I think its important to consider this deal in the broader context of what other players, such as Makar, Miro, and Q. Hughes signed back in 2021-22 to have a better understanding of the value of Dahlin's deal. We should consider the Present Value of all these deals, in their entirety, back in 2021-22 by discounting them back based on the annual cap increase YoY. For this purpose, I assumed a 4.79% growth in 2024-25 and 5.14% growth in 2025-26, and a constant 4.00% growth each year thereafter. Let's consider:

<strong>Miro Heiskanen</strong>
Present Value: $57,703,775
Term: 8 years
AAV: $7,212,972

<strong>Cale Makar</strong>
Present Value: $48,044,169
Term: 6 years
AAV: $8,007,362

<strong>Quinn Hughes</strong>
Present Value: $41,905,192
Term: 6 years
AAV: $6,984,199

When combining the bridge and long term deal of Dahlin, we can get a better picture of what this contract is worth:
<strong>Rasmus Dahlin</strong>
Present Value: $82,720,365
Term: 11 years
AAV: $7,520,033

We can see that Dahlin is right in line with other star defensemen, although on the higher end in terms of AAV. However, if we extrapolate and assume that the next contracts of Makar, Heiskanen, and Hughes all start with an initial Cap Hit % of 12% with a duration of 7 years, we can consider the value of these contracts:

<strong>Miro Heiskanen</strong>
Present Value: $114,345,394
Term: 15 years
AAV: $7,623,026

<strong>Cale Makar</strong>
Present Value: $104,685,789
Term: 13 years
AAV: $8,052,753

<strong>Quinn Hughes</strong>
Present Value: $98,546,812
Term: 13 years
AAV: $7,580,524

<strong>Rasmus Dahlin</strong>
Present Value: $82,720,365
Term: 11 years
AAV: $7,520,033

I think it is an accurate and fair assumption to consider Dahlin is the same category of skill and rank of these similar players. So even though the sticker shock is quite high, he is effectively the least expensive out of the other players under these assumptions. For reference, Makar and Miro are going to be pushing a minimum 12M-13M on the open market, while Dahlin will never see that day until 2032.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 10, 2023 at 4:25 p.m.
Thread: Noah Ostlund Truther thinks Skinner and Tuch are better than Brady Tkachuk lmao
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AlTintin1122</b></div><div>Detroit is what ottawa had last year 85-86pts. Ottawa and Buffalo are around 94</div></div>

Buffalo is definitely a step above Ottawa. Here is why it is close for me between OTT/DET:

Both have strong first liner, but Ottawa gets the edge.

Both of their second lines are solid, but Ottawa gets the edge if Norris stays healthy

Both of their third lines are good, but I would prefer Detroit's

Detroit's fourth line is significantly better

Depth: I like Detroit's depth a bit more than Ottawa's

D Paring 1: Ottawa's is better but Detroit's is still really good. I fell Ottawa's is better at helping on offense where as Detroit's is better in their own end

D pairing 2: Depends on whether or not Sanderson takes the next step and if Petry has a bounce back season. If Sanderson takes the next step and Petry doesn't bounce back, OTT gets the edge. If Petry bounced back and Sanderson doesn't take the next step Detroit gets the edge. If both or neither of them take next step/bounce back it is even

D pairing 3: I would prefer Detroit's. Strong Defensive D-man options that can play as third pairing.(Maata, Chariot, Holl) Ottawa's 3rd pairing isn't as good IMO

Depth: Even. Both teams have ok depth on d

Goaltending:

Starters: I will take Husso over Korpisalo. Husso was pretty good last year but he got overworked. Korpisalo is not historical good too

Backups: Forsberg is better than Riemer, so Ottawa gets the edge

Depth: Detroit has better G depth. Lyon has shown he can be a good backup if needed. Sogard isn't quite there yet

Overall, I think it is pretty close between the two teams
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 8, 2023 at 5:13 p.m.