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PerpetuallySad

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Oct. 7, 2020
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Edmonton Oilers
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 13, 2022 at 10:22 p.m.
Forum: Fauteuil - DGJun. 8, 2022 at 7:01 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 15, 2021 at 9:48 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 12, 2021 at 10:24 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 7, 2021 at 8:46 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>You can wax poetic with advanced stats until you are blue in the face, that's what fans like to do that don't watch the games. IF you watched the games, you would understand the advanced stats aren't that accurate. There is a reason why people who make a living playing, coaching or scouting hockey do not use advanced stats as a leading indicator of how good a player is; unlike fans, especially those addicted to playing fantasy hockey.

Again, take advanced stats with a grain of salt. The eye test, if you know hockey well enough, is a much better measuring stick so watch every game before you come to such a hard conclusion on who a player is.</div></div>
Corsi and goals aren't advanced stats! :tearsofjoy

The fact that you spend most of your time attacking my knowledge of the game shows just how weak your arguments are.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>He's a strong #4 on most teams, but can't handle 24 minutes a night anymore. There was also a ton of covering up he was doing positionally for BoQ and Mitchell; stats won't reflect that. <strong>He's also on the ice against the strongest of the opposition in the toughest on ice positions. The advanced stats you showed don't extract that</strong> and further, it doesn't show how he was covering positionally for Mitchell and BoQ. When both players fell down the lineup, they didn't see the oppositions best lines. </div></div>
You're right, the stats DON'T show that Keith is on the ice against the strongest of the opposition OR in the toughest on-ice positions. Here's what the stats show:

TOI vs Elites
Murphy: 25.6%
Zadorov: 25.0%
Keith: 22.0%
Mitchell: 21.1%
de Haan: 21.0%

O-zone faceoff%
Boqvist: 62.07%
Keith: 50.85%
Kalynuk: 50.00%
Mitchell: 49.13%
de Haan: 47.49%
Murphy: 40.25%
Zadorov: 38.83%

So your "eye test" was wrong - Keith didn't play the hardest minutes (that went to the Zadorov-Murphy pairing) and he got the 2nd easiest zone starts of any Chicago defenseman.

Do you have any other false narratives you'd like me to dismantle?
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 6, 2021 at 4:13 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>Wrong. Clearly you don't watch the games. Keith was paired with rookies and BoQ who struggled a lot defensively, people who didn't watch him and only are looking at stat sheets don't understand this. If you go into his advanced analytics, when he played with a decent partner like Murphy, he looked good still. </div></div>
Don't try telling me that he was being dragged down by rookie partners. All three of Keith's most common defense partners had better CF% away from Keith than they did with him:

Murphy with Keith: 46.33% / <strong>without: 48.75%</strong>
Boqvist with Keith: 48.38% /<strong> without: 49.35%</strong>
Mitchell with Keith: 41.63% / <strong>without: 46.62%
</strong>
Two of the 3 were appreciably better by xGF% without Keith, Boqvist was the same:

Murphy with Keith: 42.19% / <strong>without: 49.31%</strong>
Boqvist with Keith: 46.99% / without: 46.50%
Mitchell with Keith: 39.43% / <strong>without: 45.98%</strong>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>BoQ who struggled a lot defensively, </div></div>
Boqvist with Keith: 45.83 GF% in 220:46
Boqvist without Keith: 50.00 GF% in 393:15

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>That said, he's not a 1st liner anymore despite the hawks forcing him into 24 minutes a night but he definitely is a good 18 to 20 minute player as a #4 or #5 and anyone saying he's washed up and isn't a NHL player is purely ignorant. His contract has 2 years left also, but the salary is only $1M a year. Hawks should retain some, but at half retained, Hawks shouldn't do this trade. Much rather keep Keith on the roster as a #4 or #5 then give him up for free.</div></div>
A #4-#5 who carries a $5.5M cap hit is absolutely a cap dump despite the actual salary unless you're sending him to a team that has oodles of cap space and is very cost-conscious. Unfortunately for you there aren't any such teams in Western Canada.
Forum: NHL SigningsJun. 29, 2021 at 6:27 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 23, 2021 at 9:40 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 22, 2021 at 10:34 p.m.