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Pierre_from_Orleans

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Sep. 1, 2021
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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 6, 2022 at 9:28 a.m.
Thread: Next Year Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>You're looking at the cap penalty

2023-24 :

BUYOUT COST : $833,334
CAP HIT : $2,833,334

2024-25 :

BUYOUT COST : $833,334
CAP HIT : $833,334


https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/nikita-zaitsev


Cheap in terms of real dollars, cap penalty only a problem the first year but easily manageable if the cap really goes up to 86.5 M$

I did an ACGM a while ago and gave Zub 5.0, DeBrincat 9.0, Brannstrom 2.0 and Pinto 5.0 while buying out Zaitsev and it all fit under the cap… As you can see, worst case scenario for all of them

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/647528</div></div>

Post buyout earnings are $3,666,667, you have to pay the signing bonus regardless. So it's:

$2.0M in bonus + 2nd round pick with $0 Cap hit

or

$3.67M in total buyout cost with $2.83M cap hit in 23-24 and $833k cap hit in 24-25

This is where they are going to have to decide if they are planning on going after an additional D around $4-5M or if status quo is good enough to compete.

If you give the contracts stated above to Zub, Cat, Pinto and Branny (which I think are all fair, maybe a bit high but better to plan high then low), who is rounding out your D and back up goalie?

On the back end, JBD's contract is also up, so he'll be in for a bit of a raise, probably $1.XM one way contract I would guess. Lassi is still at $863K and can be sent down. So we have Chabby, Zub, Sandy and Branny. Are you comfortable with both JBD and Lassi rounding out the bottom pair and do you think the 4 mentioned above are all top 4 D? I'm on the fence with Branny, he is playing well this year but he isn't an elite defender, can't really box guys out in front of the net and he's not exactly piling up the points this season. I also don't think the mix is ideal with those as your top 4.

For me, ideally, you pay the signing bonus, trade him for the 2nd round pick and be done with the cap hit etc. Chase a $4-5M free agent D and try to get better. A buyout of Zaitsev would result in $7.8M in dead cap next season, if the cap doesn't go up to the $86.5 there will be issues resigning players we already have let alone upgrading the back end. I also think it would be beneficial to let Lassi play one more season in Bellville to round out his game and have an experienced defender paired with Sandy, with Branny and JBD rounding out the bottom pair.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 29, 2022 at 1:26 p.m.
Thread: RD and experienced C
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dekes</b></div><div>

Ottawa is in no rush, jersey is a perfect example of don’t rush the rebuild when you don’t need to.

</div></div>

Not that I think Jersey rushed the rebuild but 4 out of 6 of their defence were obtained by trade or free agency within the past 2 seasons along with their goaltender. I wouldn't say rushed but they definitely expedited it. They realized that their D prospects might have been a weak point and their forward prospects were plentiful so they supplemented the D with FA signings and trades.

Ottawa is in a very similar position. If PD had been able to make some key additions to the blue line the past couple of years things would be very different. Remove Hamilton, Graves and Marino off of the back end of NJ and they aren't where they are that's for sure. An experienced coach doesn't hurt either.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 21, 2022 at 10:26 a.m.
Thread: Zaitsev to Vancouver
Zaitsev <em>might </em>be tradeable once Ottawa pays his signing bonus next summer. He'll be making 2.5M in salary, if he is packaged with a pick, you might be able to deal him. This would be the ideal scenario. A buyout isn't ideal but isn't too bad at at $2.8M cap hit for 23-24 and $833k for 24-25.

The idea of bringing in Myers is such a pre-summer 2022 Dorion move. Is Myers better than Zaitsev, not really. He has a $5M signing bonus due, instead of $2M for Zaitsev. If you buy Myers out next summer the cap hit will be $5.3M for 23-24 and $333k for 24-25 which is significantly more for 23-24 compared to Zaitsev's buyout.

If you keep Myers for next year ($6M) compared to buying out Zaitsev ($2.8M), that's Zub's raise plus some.

In a summer where Pinto, DeBrincat, Zub and Talbot are all in need of contracts, I don't think you can acquire more money in bad contracts.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2022 at 1:23 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 14, 2022 at 2:58 p.m.
Thread: roughly predicting sens cap hell
It will be imperative that they rid themselves of 100% of the Zaitsev deal by next year. I've penciled in Kleven and one of JBD or Lassi on the third pair in 23-24. I liked Heatherington when he was up so he could easily spot in for Kleven if he isn't ready by next year.

I am assuming one of JBD or Lassi will be used to get that Top 4 D. One of Marino, Hague, Petterson, Chychrun would be my picks, in no particular order.

We can hope that DeBrincat takes a bit less then his QO over the long term, maybe 8.5M, and that Jimmy Stu takes a bit less then 8M. I might be a little high on the Zub extension, thinking it will be just over $4M but I'd rather be surprised for it coming in lower than I thought as opposed to being disappointed it's higher, assuming he is extended.

I don't have Brannstrom on the team past next season as I don't think he has a role here. Even this season, I just see him as a depth piece provided they are able to acquire a top 4 D.

Once we get to 25-26, the cap is predicted to jump as the escrow will be paid back to the owners. I never thought I'd see a day this soon where the team is planning on spending this much money but here we are. Dorion taking the field of dreams moto, if you build it, they will come. Go to games people, get that attendance up!
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 6, 2022 at 10:07 a.m.
Thread: Wheeler out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>No, I wish people could think for themselves.. So I'm asking you...and not some BS you heard from the media, do you think Ottawa would be even remotely interested in the trade you proposed?</div></div>

I don't think it's that bad of a deal to be honest. The cap hit doesn't really matter to Ottawa, Wheeler's actual salary averages to 7.375M per, which, for a top 6 forward, is pretty decent. I think getting any value out of Brannstrom is going to be tough, he might be worth a 3rd round pick at this point, so packaging him with a very late 2nd round pick for 2 years of Wheeler isn't terrible value. Wheeler was very close to a point a game the last 3 years. He's getting older but I think there's still some value in him. Worst case is he plays a year and a half they flip him at the trade deadline as a rental and have one of the internal players such as Greig move in if he is ready. It would likely end up being a net neutral deal, and they might even make it out ahead with retention, as I think Wheeler as a rental could bring a decent return.

I don't think that Wheeler should be the Sens first choice though, I would try to go the free agent route as there is at least 10 really good free agents available at this time that I would have interest in. My first pick would be the obvious one, Claude Giroux. But there are others, and ones that won't cost a ton, such as Burakovsky, Niederreiter, Copp, Mikheyev, Trocheck, Marchment, Nichushkin. And if they want to spend $$ they could always take a run at Forsberg, Malkin or Kadri.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 30, 2022 at 11:30 a.m.
Thread: Moving Forward
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IcemanJoe</b></div><div>What is “a bit more”? A 2023 protected first?</div></div>

I am honestly not sure. The Toews trade is a complete fleece job done by the Avalanche but then you look at deals like the Risto trade to Philly, and consensus (224-10 according to the trade poll) would say Philly got fleeced.

I tried looking at other comparables but there just aren't many. You have the Jones trade, but Jones is a higher profile, has a higher ceiling in my opinion, than Dumba. And on the low end there is the Ryan Ellis, trade where none of the players involved played much this year (Ellis - 4gp, Myers - 27gp, Patrick 0gp for Preds, Glass 8gp).

So to answer your question, maybe a low end prospect, 3rd round pick value? It's hard to gauge a value on Dumba, although Ottawa is a good dance partner as there is a gaping hole on the top 4 RD.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 30, 2022 at 9:12 a.m.
Thread: LAK Fiala
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IcemanJoe</b></div><div>Congrats, you did *nail it. I’ll disagree with the Fan aspect though. I’m happy with the return. Top 4 RHD with elite D upside and top pairing upside if the offense ever comes around, elite skater. I like it a lot. It’s not an amazing return, but IMO a fair deal. I’ve watched damn near every gopher game the last few years, Faber is a hell of a player, does all the little things right. And man is he tough to beat 1-1, just doesn’t happen.</div></div>

I 100% agree, the deal was fair and Minny got a good prospect back in Faber. He should be a top 4 defensive defenceman, might not be elite, but that is not a slight, that is just really tough to do.

I'll agree to disagree on the fan aspect, there were more Wild fans thinking they'd get a significantly better return then this.

On the trade though, I think Fiala fits really well in LA as well, doesn't have to be the leader with Kopitar there and he can just play his game.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 30, 2022 at 8:48 a.m.