PuckLuck_77

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Mar 7, 2019
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Los Angeles Kings
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Mar 9, 1991
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13
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 10:11 am
Thread: Trade Deadline wMTL and LA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>I'll grant that its light, but not sure what the market for carter is. His injuries and slow down in production, is partly to the system and talent around him admittedly, but JVR is still in a down year on a 25g or 45-50 pt pace. Hes a nice piece for the next 3/4 years. But LA does need to shed salary, just not sure hes worth a huge return. JVR is a top 6 winger.

If the pick was a 2nd and no salary retained, is probably closer,

but again LA would probably prefer youth or prospects, just not sure the value in Carter is there, hes on pace for less than 40 pts and his more recent injuries and age are a concern.</div></div>

I'm not saying that Carter is going to get alot, my point was merely that wasnt paying the Kings enough to take JVRs contract. With retention, I'd probably expect just a 2nd round pick because there still is risk in taking on someone his age for 2 more years. But it's a 3C who's on pace for 22-24 goals (he's actually rebounded this year after that Achilles injury, and last night not withstanding has been durable this year) at just barely over $2.3mil. He could also move to the wing and play 2nd line minutes if needed, or in the event of a Nolan Patrick return. Offers nice depth to the Flyers lineup.

I'm not sure moving Carter is right for the Kings regardless. I'll take any picks we can get, but LA still has to ice an NHL team, and besides Vilardi, the prospects arent ready for the NHL yet. And he can be a good mentor to Gabe, Turcotte, JAD, Kupari, Akil Thomas, etc, who all are vying for the center positions on LA with a few capable of playing wing.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 12 at 4:26
Thread: this is the only deadline that makes any sense
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Talking_Senators</b></div><div>A guy that can play up and down your lineup, wins faceoffs, PK specialist, proven playoff guy, great work ethic. He does everything right. He's that perfect depth addition for a deep run and let's not forget the centre position at the deadline this year is pretty bare. Stop looking at it as only acquiring a "3C".</div></div>

None of that changes my mind that he shouldn't be considered worth a 1st round pick. The Sens have been in the playoffs once. When a 1st round pick is in play, you want an impact player slotting into your top-6 or top-4 directly. Not a "depth addition" who can play in that spot if there's an injury. He's a good player. Got it. But he's not worth a 1st in my mind.

A GM might overpay because it's the TDL and there are always dumb mistakes that are made. And like you said, there aren't many centers on the market. But I wouldn't expect it. This has "buyer beware" written all over it, but good for JGP for having his career year when his contract is coming up. Some team will overpay him this coming season.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 12 at 12:34
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 12 at 11:30
Thread: Carolina Fans -- My Thoughts in Description
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>nbass</b></div><div>i don't think that the canes would ship out a first in a deep class (especially since one of the picks will be in the lottery) and tieksola, who should be a little higher on the list but due to the amount of solid prospects isn't. Personally, the prospect would be someone like clark bishop, anton forsberg, or maybe oliwer kaski. All players that could be on a roster with kaski having good potential as a puck moving d-man

but what do I know</div></div>

It's being reported today that Carolina is shopping that extra 1st rounder though, just fyi. Hmm. You think one of Toronto or Carolina misses? It seems to me like they have a pretty solid shot to both be in it, but it'll certainly come down to the wire. Either way, that's why I said "worse". There's no way they get rid of a lottery pick, you're absolutely right.

One of the most fun times of the season!
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 12 at 11:02
Thread: Carolina Fans -- My Thoughts in Description
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>nbass</b></div><div>i dont mind martinez but that's an overpay. one of the bigger insiders said that his value is around a second so sending a good prospect and a first is a overpay</div></div>

You're a little outdated on your value estimation on Martinez. From the Athletic's Craig Custance yesterday:

" 3. Alec Martinez, Los Angeles Kings – There are a bunch of teams looking for defensemen – Carolina, Vegas, Toronto, Winnipeg – and Martinez is an attractive option. He’s playoff experienced. He’s reasonably priced. He’s a left-shot who can play on the right side. He has a year left.
What gets it done? One source suggested it may not include a first, but the Kings could expect two seconds and a prospect in a possible package. There’s not a lot of supply on the top-four defenseman market.
“There are probably at least eight teams going for a defenseman,” said an executive. “How many are out there? There’s going to be teams left without one.” "

That's the basis of where I started for this. With retention, taking back salary, and sending the LAK pick the other way, I upped the two second round picks to a 1st, which I thought was fair. Tieksola is ranked #15 on Scott Wheeler's list of Carolina prospects. It's not like I'm asking for Dominik Bokk.

But either way, thanks for your feedback.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 12 at 10:38
Thread: Carolina Fans -- My Thoughts in Description
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caniac2000</b></div><div>MArtinez isn't exactly a fit. His underlying numbers aren't great, and his one major issue is his legs are starting to go. With skaters like Foegele, Necas, Aho, Teravaineen, Svechnikov, Dzingel who just skate around guys, Martinez isn't gonna be able to keep up. Personally, I'd rather target someone like DeMelo, and extend him, although I think the value is fair</div></div>

I think "underlying numbers" have to be taken with a grain of salt when looking at anyone on the LA roster. Pretty much everyone has done better away from the team, key examples being Pearson and Kovalchuk. Granted, those aren't defenseman, but Muzzin has done pretty well for Toronto, being their one stable defender. I disagree with saying his legs are starting to go. As someone who has watched nearly every Kings game for the past 10 years, his legs are close to the same as they've always been. He's never been a burner, but he's smart with the puck in his own zone, makes a good first outlet pass, and can keep up with the play. He would also be a great PK'er, and could sub in on PP2 when needed. It certainly would be an adjustment for him moving to a faster team, but I think he could do it.

I hope you wouldn't have to give up a 1st for DeMelo!!

Thanks for the feedback.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 10 at 5:30
Thread: Martinez-Johnson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Chigurrhh</b></div><div>A 2nd + Good prospect is fairly high for an Alec Martinez trade.

He's regressed a bit in recent years and still carries a substantial cap hit. He's also 32.

Meanwhile, Johnson, while still terrible, is significantly less terrible than he was last year and the year before. Teams wanted him as a free agent two summers ago. His value might not be perceived as negatively by certain teams as it should be.</div></div>

A 2nd and a prospect is pretty much what everyone thinks is the price, not to mention any bidding wars that go on. And "substantial cap hit"? The Kings will retain if they need to, getting it down to 2mil, but even then a top-4 defender at 4mil is hardly "substantial".

And regardless of whether or not Johnson is "significantly less terrible than he was last year", you're still using the word "terrible" to describe his play, which is never a good starting point. And THAT contract is substantial, in term if not in cap hit. And I think the cap hit is significantly bad for the level of play he provides.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 5 at 5:10
Thread: LAs Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DocArin0</b></div><div>As someone on the east coast who does not get to see a ton of LA what is the sense of what LA fans want in exchange for those pieces? i had a hard time valuing them just due to lack of exposure to them</div></div>

Kings won't trade Cal. Period, hang up the phone.

I think the Kings are looking for a 2nd round pick and a B grade prospect for Martinez, if not a little more. Not sure they'll get quite that though. It will be interesting to see how teams compare him to Muzzin, who brought a 1st and 2 prospects. He's older, and not quite the scoring threat. But he's a massive shot-blocker, great in his own zone, and can quarterback a PP2 if needed. Great #4/#5 defenseman on a contending team.

Toffoli, as much as I'd like him to, won't get the Tatar return that you're looking at. The only player EXPECTED to get a 1st round pick this year at the TDL is Krieder. That being said, there's always an overpayment. If someone overpays on Toffoli, it'll just be a single 1st rounder. Actual worth is probably a reasonable 2nd round pick and a B+/A- prospect (meaning, Boston's 60th overall pick will need to come with closer to an A prospect, as opposed to a team like Calgary which isn't necessarily expected to be a world beater in the playoffs).

Iafallo is really hard to gauge since he's still relatively new to the league. Figuring out what he's worth is an interesting discussion. He's 26 so he's not exactly young, but he's been playing first line minutes his entire career. I'd argue he's worth a 2nd round pick and maybe a B-/C+ prospect. Maybe more if the team really likes him. I figure him as a phenomenal 3rd line guy on a really strong contending team. Think St. Louis or Washington. Not quite good enough to bounce someone more skilled than him down the lineup, but will drive the play and create a ton of secondary scoring in the bottom part of the lineup. However, I don't think the Kings are interested in dealing him unless someone blows them away with an offer. It's not quite a hang-up-the-phone type deal as Cal Peterson, but they won't be in the mood for listening, that's for sure.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb 3 at 12:19
Thread: Lebrun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Sure they could be ready by next year but being NHL ready and NHL elite ready are 2 different things, Martinez (or Petry who i think is the better target) really sure up the D depth which has shown weakness recently for this year and next then they are replaced by much more prepared and developed young players. Colorado is trying to chase the cup right now, they are lucky Makar adapted so well so fast, defense usually take until their mid 20's to peak</div></div>

Bingo. I was about to say the same thing. If Colorado really wants to run 2 rookies as part of a legit defensive corp, by all means go ahead. But look at teams like LA right now, where they are doing the same thing. It's not pretty.

Martinez would be a good stop-gap for the next season and a half while Byram/Timmons get their feet wet next year. On top of that, he's got winning experience, is phenomenal in his own zone (breakouts, shot blocking monster, etc) and has that "clutch" factor. Dude scored the Game 7 winner against Chicago in 2014, and then topped that with the series winner against New York to win the Cup.

I'd love to hear a bit more about Ranta. But I like the deal for the Kings, despite it not having a 2020 pick.