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Radovan

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May 13, 2018
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Forum: NHL SigningsApr. 8, 2021 at 10:51 a.m.
Thread: Vancouver Canucks signed Thatcher Demko (5 Years / $5,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>That's just not true though. Since 2018 (the 2nd half of the 2018-19 season, the entire 2019-20 season and all of the 2020-21 season so far), Gibson hasn't been elite any way you slice it.

Looking at the 72 goalies that have played at least 1000 minutes at 5v5 in that span, Gibson is:

- 8th in TOI
- 50th in GSAA
- 44th in GSAA/60
- 5th in HDSA/60
- 42nd in HDSV%

Yes, he plays behind a terrible team. But he isn't making that team better.

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&amp;thruseason=20202021&amp;stype=2&amp;sit=5v5&amp;score=all&amp;stdoi=g&amp;rate=y&amp;team=ALL&amp;pos=S&amp;loc=B&amp;toi=1000&amp;gpfilt=gpdate&amp;fd=2019-01-01&amp;td=2021-04-08&amp;tgp=410&amp;lines=single&amp;draftteam=ALL</div></div>

Gibson had a very bad 2019-20, which has sunk his numbers. That's it. This is from Dom's article from The Athletic prior to this season:

"Last season Gibson was expected to be worth 4.8 wins, but instead was just a little bit over replacement level. He had a .904 save percentage, allowing 10.6 goals above expected in the process. That latter mark ranked 71st in the league.

In the two seasons prior Gibson ranked first and first, saving 25 goals in 2018-19 and a staggering 33 in 2017-18. The year before that he was fourth at 23 goals saved and in all has one just season in the negatives: his rookie year, at minus-1.1. It’s rare to find a goalie that is so consistent and that’s what made Gibson such a safe bet – until he wasn’t. The difference between what he did and what was projected of him was worth about four-to-five wins, give or take. That almost entirely explains the difference in projection."

The following is about Murray:

"Over the last three seasons, Murray is not the same goalie who won back-to-back Stanley Cups. The talent is there but the results haven’t been. Last season, Murray had a .900 save percentage and allowed 14 goals above expected in just 38 games, the sixth-worst mark in the league. He was just average in that regard in 2018-19, saving as many as expected, but was back near the bottom in 2017-18, allowing eight off a .907 save percentage. In total, Murray ranks 75th in goals saved above expected and it’s why his rating is barely above replacement level: It’s what he’s been for the majority of the last three seasons. Murray should bounce back from a wretched campaign last year but hoping for what he was from 2015-17 is asking a lot."
Forum: NHL SigningsApr. 8, 2021 at 12:07 a.m.
Thread: Vancouver Canucks signed Thatcher Demko (5 Years / $5,000,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>I'm not sure what you mean by that. Neither Gibson nor Murray have been elite since 2018.

From January 1, 2019 until today, 62 goalies (2 per team essentially) have played at least 28 games. Here are Gibson and Murray's stats in that timeframe and their rank among the 62 goalies.

GAA
Murray: 2.93 (43rd)
Gibson: 3.05 (51st)

Sv%
Murray: .905 (44th)
Gibson: .903 (47th)

These numbers are basically "league average backup" material. They aren't even starter-quality let alone elite. But bottom line is they've performed similarly over the past 2+ years so I'm confused by your apparent juxtaposition of these two men.</div></div>

Gibson had a bad year last season, but other than that he's been probably the best goalie in the league for a good portion of the last 5 years. His GAA and Sv% look bad because he's been playing behind terrible Anaheim teams. If you look at his Goals Saved Above Expected/Average (a lot more telling stats), you'll be able to see the difference.