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You owe us picks
Jun 27, 2020
New York Islanders
Posts per Day
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>islanders15</b></div><div>You're basically contradicting yourself by saying dont value xGF because things in his personal life could be affecting their play and would skew those numbers, as if the same factors wouldnt skew the numbers you value. I'm not saying you should value one more or the other, but if player A scores 30 goals and 12 of them are empty netters and Player B scores 22 goals and creates a lot of high danger chances, which player do you want?</div></div>
I'd prefer the 22 goals obviously, but using your logic what if he was predicted to score 30 goals and only scored 12, which would be more realistic?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Isles777</b></div><div>You can think what you want but The last two cup winners let metrics like xGF dictate their personnel decisions. XGF is the best predictor of future success, that is proven. You don’t have to like advanced stats, but there’s a reason why the most successful teams in the league are heavily invested in analytics.</div></div>
I will think what I want, and my thoughts are you don't know how these teams analyze their players. And even if they did use advanced metrics it's likely as a guideline and more to it than, Oh look it says on the spread sheet, according to xGF, Player X should score close to 50 this year.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Isles777</b></div><div>No it's not. It's more important that he's generating a ton of quality chances on his own. Expected goals is the best measure of future scoring ability so regression to the mean will happen soon. You're wrong, cizikas only had 2:07 ice time against Bergeron, wahlstrom had 4:13 of ice time against Bergeron. That's a pretty big difference. Wahlstrom's skillset is not meant for the 3rd line, he is playing with a fringe NHLer in komarov and pageau as good as he is defensively, is still a grinder who doesn't have much creativity in the offensive zone. Despite that wahlstrom is still carrying that line offensively. Maybe Trotz should start putting prospects in a position to succeed with players that cater to their skillsets instead of making them to adapt to a grinders role. Wahlstrom faced tougher competition than barzal last night, putting him with barzal would make it easier role, not a more difficult one.
The expected goal value of a non-blocked shot is a value given to that shot based on the probability of that shot turning into a goal (multiple variables are taken into account like distance, type of shot). Yes anyone can shoot the puck on net, that does mean that it will increase their XGF%. Leo is a career negative in that metric. Actually expected goals% is the best predictor of future performance - Tampa Bay goes after players who have a high expected goals % , there's a reason why their director of analytics got his name on the cup. He is a big reason why they won.
Like I said before, Nelsons line has been getting the top matchups, not Barzal. Nelson's line is the 1st line. Barzal's line was matched up against boston's 4th line (who aren't very good) meanwhile eberle was matched up against Bergeron line and Boston 2nd line, which is centered by David krecji (one of the better defensive minded centers in the league). So eberle is actually producing against the toughest competition.</div></div>
Dude, you're throwing a bunch of what ifs out there and trying to pass them off as fact. They aren't facts it doesn't matter if it's a full moon out that night, above freezing and the puck was angled slightly to the right, while they were playing banjo in the background while he took the shot. A shot is a shot and it only counts if it goes in the back of the net that's the only stat that matters. Did he score.
Expected is what some guy with a spread sheet thinks should happen, not what will happen. xGF is not guaranteed to happen. Why do you think so many high draft picks bomb and so many low draft picks that are over looked shine, it's because the stat is nothing more than a guide line. It's not meant to be taken literally. Many factors that the metrics don't show could figure in to those numbers. Is he going through personal problems, is his wife cheating on him , is he getting divorced? Maybe a family member is dying or sick, maybe he's playing through an injury that the public doesn't know about. My point is the numbers are a guide line.
As I said, I'm not trying to change your belief system. If believing in stats like xGF makes you feel good, have at it. It's really no concern of mine what you base your love of the game on. We both love the Islanders even if we don't see eye to eye on other things. Anyways, have a good one man.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Isles777</b></div><div>I don't think wahlstrom is struggling at all and the numbers back that up. He did very well against Bergeron's line last night. Teams like Tampa Bay and Carolina use xgf when acquiring players, it's an important metric and shows that the player is generating quality scoring chances. So I wouldn't say it means nothing. The goals will come for wahlstrom, it's more important that he's generating on his own. NYR rookie Kaapo Kakko was one of the worst players in the league in terms of XGF, so for wahlstrom at 20 YO to lead all isles forwards in xgf is impressive. He's definitely earned more ice time.
Nelson was brutal in terms of XGF before eberle joined him. Nelson has played much better with Eberle and hes just snake bitten right now.
That "2nd line" of MDC-Nelson-Eberle is actually the 1st line. They have been getting the tougher matchups - yesterday Barzal's line was somewhat sheltered. The reason why eberle is scoring more is because he has the puck more. Barzal is the primary puck carrier when he's on barzal's line so he plays a different game, he was still very effective but now eberle is able to drive his own line, which he has been doing. Eberle is a high end 2nd liner, average 1st line winger.</div></div>
If Wahlstrom isn't scoring it's the very definition of struggling especially for a guy touted as incredibly gifted offensive player and what numbers? The numbers that say 1 goal on the score sheet or the guessed numbers like xGF? If he isn't scoring against the weaker checkers in the league. It's pretty much guaranteed he'll have a tougher time against another teams top checkers. Sometimes I think we're watching different games, the Cizikas line was out against the Bergeron line most of the night at least it's the match up Trotz wanted, but with the huge amounts of icing calls last night lines got stuck out there, so there was a chance the Pageau line saw them on more than one occasion.
I'm not trying to discourage your beliefs, if xGF makes you feel better good on you, but to me it's guess work. Anyone can shoot the puck on net, it doesn't mean they'll score X amount of times. Hell Komorov could do it. Does it mean he's a potential 50 goal scorer? Of course it doesn't. All "expected" means is that they feel it should happen, not that it will happen. So it's a guess. It's like saying my arthritis is acting up today so I expect it to snow, it might, it might not, it's not guaranteed because I'm just guessing it'll snow.
I doubt Nelson has played better because of Eberle, it was just a matter time before he started to get in the groove. He had his moments with Bailey on early this season as well and he hasn't found the net with either of them. Maybe when Beau comes back things will be different who knows? And Eberle being able to drive his own line is because teams aren't checking him as hard, it doesn't matter if Barzal carries the puck more. He gets just as many scoring opportunities. He just struggles against another teams top checkers, which is why he should be on the 2nd line, at least he's scoring there.
I know you're a Eberle fan and that's fine, but in my opinion. He's a 2nd line winger, and emergency 1st line winger, or until Lou actually does something about it, their first line winger. It's the one missing piece that'll put this team over the top.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>slapshot723</b></div><div>I agree with a lot of this except for the rookie thing at the bottom. Plenty of teams have an injection of youth in their bottom-6 and it does sometimes work out, as long as it's sprinkled with veterans. Problem is we don't develop anyone past the third round anymore, so we don't have guys to call up aside from guys with high expectations like Wahlstrom and Bellows.</div></div>
Maybe so, but it's extremely rare you see a team carry 4 rookies in to the playoffs, a large majority of them end up trading for veterans at the deadline. I'm not saying don't play the kids all I'm saying is take it slow look at Dobsons transition he's looking better every game but he still makes very noticeable rookie mistakes at times. Although lately I can't fully blame the rookies the vets are playing like they don't even want to be there.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Isles777</b></div><div>Wahlstrom and bellows were solid defensively and one of the only forwards that were generating offense/driving play.
That was komarov’s 10th 3rd period penalty in 131 games. Maybe he just learn to be more disciplined. Schultz was his guy and he was soft on the back check, so he did cost us the game. Trotz putting komarov on the 2nd line last night was insulting to the rest of the isles and fans - it’s pretty much saying you don’t care about winning.
Nelson has been awful but bailey has been just as bad. Failing to get the puck out of the zone, soft on the forecheck, slow decision making. I don’t care if clutter scores goals, he hasn’t been effective on the forecheck and his play in the defensive zone is weak. That’s my problem with him - and Martin looks cooked , my god what an awful contract.
There’s a reason why Trotz has only made it past the 2nd rd twice in his career. He’s a solid coach but his reliance on old grinders holds his teams back.</div></div>
I never said the kids were playing badly I said you're giving them way too much credit. They've been far from perfect Bellows hasn't scored and Wahlstrom got a fluke although it was just his first game so he gets a pass. Sorokin scares me when he's in net He just doesn't look ready for the North American game to me. The only one that's impressed me is Dobson he looks more comfortable every game he plays, aside from the second game against the Rangers.
Trotz started Komorov on the second line but I knew he wouldn't finish the game there, Bellows did. Even Pageau got a few shifts on the left side
Yes Nelson needs to step it up, but you can't fault Bailey he's the playmaker on that line always has been and he's made some pretty passes that Nelson or Beau couldn't put in the back of the net. If you're expecting Bailey to score a lot of goals you'll be waiting a real long time. And as I said before as far as the 4th line goes Clutters been the only one doing his job. Martin and Cizikas need to nut up and get back to the way they used to play. The best 4th line in hockey has become one of the biggest jokes in hockey at the moment.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Isles777</b></div><div>The flyers had 3 rookies in the lineup last season (aube kubel, myers, and farabee) + a 21 year old carter hart in his first year as a starter. The flyers had a solid veteran group (couturier, giroux, hayes) and they were a great team.</div></div>
Did they win the cup? They also have a lot more talent throughout their line up. We've got.....uh....Barzal. Don't get me wrong there's a lot of guys I like on this team but they were horrible before Trotz's system came in to play. And Barzal is our one true star player.