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Ryno
Ryno
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Mar. 1, 2016
Favourite Team
Edmonton Oilers
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2019 at 5:12 p.m.
Thread:
TML blockbuster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ConnorsCousin</b></div><div>agree with the second part. and I guess my whole point is that when people say we're stuck with Lucic's contract, its a bit of an exaggeration. First of all, if you're not dressing him, he's not a problem on the ice. So the Oilers could dress 12 forwards ahead of Milan. Secondly, if push came to shove at the expansion draft, yes buying him out gives us no cap flexibility, but it does mean we get to protect someone else who has more value, so still worth it. And lastly, like I said, his actual money owed is less than his cap hit. Budget teams love to eat these kinds of contracts because it helps them reach the floor. Imagine eating 50% percent of that and we're practically paying his salary to play somewhere else. I'm saying the contract is easier to move than you make it seem to be.</div></div>
I don't know if you meant to quote someone else or not, but I explicitly said that we're probably stuck with Looch for another year or two until the contract becomes more palatable. That doesn't imply that we're stuck with him until the contract runs out.
That does not, however, change the fact that the contract is still nearly buyout proof. If push comes to shove, and Lucic does not waive his NMC before the expansion draft, it becomes a last-minute resort. But, there will be no cap savings, and management will have to make a decision accordingly.
I hope that clarifies my position on this.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2019 at 4:36 p.m.
Thread:
TML blockbuster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ConnorsCousin</b></div><div>Well, come the summer of the expansion draft, if we bought him out then, he'd have two years left which means 4 years of dead cap if we bought him out. However, if we traded him at retained cap hit by then, it'd be 3M for the next two seasons. And don't forget his contract is front loaded. Actual money owed on Lucic last 2 years is basically half or a quarter of his cap hit.
Fact of the matter is, the closer we are to his contract's expiry date, the easier it is to trade it.</div></div>
The problem isn't the money owing, it's the fact that so much of it is paid in signing bonuses, which do not provide cap relief savings in terms of the buyout. It really is, for the duration of the contract, nearly buyout proof.
I mean, we all knew that this contract would be an albatross at some time. I don't think any of us thought it would be this much of a cinder block this soon. I can honestly say I've never seen a player's skill set completely erode of a Christmas break the way Lucic's did in Christmas 2017.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2019 at 4:13 p.m.
Thread:
TML blockbuster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Copenhagen</b></div><div>His buyout really does not get lower, it is always ****ty (Lucic)</div></div>
That's true. Chiarelli's gift that keeps on giving.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2019 at 3:57 p.m.
Thread:
TML blockbuster
It doesn't solve the Leafs problem in the slightest, because curing the headache of Zaitsev doesn't offset taking on the repeated body blows that is Lucic, even with the potential of Jesse added in.
As Oilers fan, I think we're stuck with the human boat anchor for another year, maybe two, unless the buyout becomes slightly more palatable.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2019 at 2:31 p.m.
Thread:
Getting calls for Nurse to get wingers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DomCholette</b></div><div>you forgot Rangers, Pitts, Phily fans as well :squinty
But without Lehko + Shaw... that top 9 roster is awful! :huff</div></div>
The defence is worse without Nurse than the forward group would be with Lehko and Shaw. Much easier to acquire those pieces via free agency/trades than to give up Nurse.
FWIW, I would much rather have the Kadri/Brown package, anyway, just not at the expense of Nurse.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2019 at 1:31 p.m.
Thread:
Puljuarvi trade
Oilers fan here. I think that's reasonable value from the Oilers side, but I can't imagine Carolina wants Nurse with his RFA status being what it is next year. Another year like the year he just had, and I think he's going to demand $6-$7 mil on a long term deal. I think Carolina turns it down.
I think the bigger question is, though, why would they want anything to do with Marc Staal and that contract without serious salary retention? Georgiev is a decent 1B option with potential (and I don't see NYR wanting him to be a part of this equation, anyway), and a 2nd is nice, but I think there are better deals to be made from Carolina's standpoint.
Maybe something like Staal at 50% for Forsberg makes more sense?
Forum:
Edmonton Oilers
Jun. 26, 2019 at 1:01 p.m.
Thread:
How do we trade lucic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>PrisonBull</b></div><div>Roussel's is not a bad contract. Any swap of Lucic and Ericksson would necessitate draft picks coming <em>to </em>Vancouver due to term and the fact that it is the Oilers that are the team in need of cap space.</div></div>
That's exactly what I meant. Even with Benning at the helm, there's zero chance Edmonton doesn't end up ponying the picks/prospects.
For example we might have to send a 2nd a 3rd with Lucic for Roussel, or retain some salary for a draft pick in return. For Beagle, maybe it's a 3rd and a 4th. For Eriksson, it might be a 5th or 6th.
Don't kid yourself that Roussel's not a bad contract, though. It most certainly is with 3 more years left when players of that ilk start rapidly declining. However, in relation to the others, it's certainly a whole lot more appetizing.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2019 at 12:24 p.m.
Thread:
Getting calls for Nurse to get wingers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DomCholette</b></div><div>Rumor I got was that MTL & TML are interested in Nurse: Shaw + Lehko or Kadri + Brown for him...</div></div>
Of course they're interested. 30 teams are interested in acquiring him.
Rumors coming from one camp mean diddly squat if it doesn't fit the need. Addressing some secondary scoring while opening up a Mack-sized hole in an already barely-passable NHL defence is not a smart way to go, even if that has been the Oilers M.O. in the past.
I'll tell you, though. Nobody does a better job of whipping up a fan base than the media in Toronto and Montreal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2019 at 10:14 a.m.
Thread:
Getting calls for Nurse to get wingers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>villenash</b></div><div>Nurse should get a better return than that after the season he had</div></div>
100%. That's a terrible return for a 24 year-old, 40 point physical defenceman who can skate and is making just a hair over $3 mil.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 26, 2019 at 1:17 a.m.
Thread:
New era 1 Trade with EDM
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>arafay</b></div><div>They get a good middle six winger (need) and a rd prospect with real potential if he can stay healthy
I could add a pick but they aren’t getting a lot more for puljujarvi. Perreault is worth a 3rd at least (while taking the jets’ cap issues into account and green is a good prospect</div></div>
This could not be a more incorrect assessment of Edmonton's needs.
A 31 year old 3rd liner making north of $4 mil with term has precious little value to Edmonton. All kinds of Perreault-like players available on the UFA market, although that really should be the way the Oilers go, anyway, since our biggest need is ELC or sub-million players who can perform at the NHL level
The Oilers greatest strength is in blueline prospects, so Green doesn't exactly move the needle, either.
Finally, Jesse's value is at an all-time low. Smart GMs do not move 21 year-old 4th overall picks at this time. His agent can pout, whine, threaten, and stomp his feet all he wants, but Holland doesn't have to give in (see Athanasiou, Andreas as a case study on how Holland handled a similar situation).
Now, even if it does come to that, there are a ton of other teams who can pony up more. For example, Carolina has been rumored to have offered Julie Gauthier, who absolutely fits the Oilers needs a whole pile better than this.
To summarize: an aging, 30 point winger to a cap-strapped team and an okay defensive prospect added to a plethora of defensive prospects does nothing at all for the Oilers.
Hardest of passes on this deal.
Forum:
Edmonton Oilers
Jun. 25, 2019 at 10:12 p.m.
Thread:
How do we trade lucic
Well, first thing's first, Lucic isn't going anywhere until his signing bonus is paid on July 1.
Really, the only option is to Vancouver, who has few bad contracts on the books with term (Roussel, Beagle, Eriksson), has oodles of cap space with which to work, and a GM who doesn't exactly have a reputation for astute, shrewd manoeuvreing.
Pick one of the above, add in the appropriate amount of draft picks and prospects in proportion to the bad contract we are taking in return, and then hope to all that is holy that the trade call is made before someone talks some sense into Jim Benning.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 9:27 p.m.
Thread:
I wish
I don't see any way Winnipeg does't match that; however, the real issue I see is with the Gagner buyout.
From what I understand, you cannot re-sign a player who has been bought out for a full calendar year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 9:05 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Edmonton Nashville Chicago Columbus
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kakko_to_New_York</b></div><div>that's crazy tho Lucic is getting $6M for another what 4-5 years? over just 2 seasons of $4.35M???
Gagner, Manning, Brodziak add up to $6.55M...</div></div>
Yeah, it's crazy. But, that's the way it is in Oilerville with long-term contracts
The team's play isn't good enough to be in consideration for the plays past January every year, but at least we have the benefit of having absolutely zero cap space to improve the roster.
Wait a minute...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 8:46 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Edmonton Nashville Chicago Columbus
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kakko_to_New_York</b></div><div>oops I meant Manning smh</div></div>
Brandon Manning needs to be sent to the moon in one of Elon Musk's SpaceX rockets, but, again, the extra year on Smith's deal makes it impossible unless Lucic is involved.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 8:25 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Edmonton Nashville Chicago Columbus
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kakko_to_New_York</b></div><div>what if NYR took Davidson and Brodziak as well?</div></div>
Well, Brandon Davison's been in the Chicago organization for a year now, so I'm not exactly sure to whom it is you are referring .
Brodziak's in the same boat as Gagner, where he's only got 1 year left. Plus, with no contract restrictions, he can be sent to the minors and only costs $75k on the cap.
There are only two scenarios that make sense for Brendan Smith in Oilers funky-orange colors:
1) Rangers buy him out; Edmonton signs him as 7th d-man
2) You take Lucic in some capacity that makes fiduciary sense for Edmonton...and why would NYR want to do that?
Quite frankly - and I never thought I'd ever say this, given the financial history of these two teams - but Edmonton needs to be looking to try and dump salary on the Rangers.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 8:09 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Edmonton Nashville Chicago Columbus
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kakko_to_New_York</b></div><div>Gagner is almost dead and Smith could bounce back?</div></div>
Smith's steak is every bit as medium-well as Gagner's is at this point.
He also makes over a million more than Gagner, which is significant since the Oilers are entering Hades in cap-terms. He has one more year longer on his deal than Gagner, and, the icing on the cake here is that would be a healthy scratch in Edmonton, as he's not playing ahead of Klefbom, Nurse, or Sekera.
If you bought him out, maybe Edmonton would offer a 1 year-deal at $1 mil to play a 6-7 defender role. Depends what Holland thinks of him (and he would certainly know him well).
Maybe he could regain his form again; or, maybe he's Brandon Manning. Either way, Edmonton's not taking on that brutal 2nd year of the deal.
Sorry, hardest of passes here from Edmonton's POV.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 7:58 p.m.
Thread:
New era 1 Trade with EDM
Simple question here:
Is everyone just overlooking the fact that this trade makes less than zero sense from an Oilers point of view from either a hockey or business standpoint?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 7:50 p.m.
Thread:
Carolina Edmonton Nashville Chicago Columbus
No way does Edmonton trade one year of Sam Gagner for two years of Brendan Smith and his inflated contract. Really don't see how that makes any sense for Edmonton.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 7:45 p.m.
Thread:
Up And Atom
There are a few issues I see:
1) Canes don't give up Necas. Non-starter. Russell also likely doesn't waive for Carolina, since we wants to stay in Western Canada. I also can't imagine Faulk signing an extension with Edmonton that fits in with the salary structure, but you never know.
2) I don't see much point in getting rid of Kassian when he finally started to show some consistency in the second half of the season.
3) It will take more of a sweetener to move Lucic than a swap of late-round picks. More like a 3rd with Lucic (that extra year is a real you-know-what)
I like the Tim Heed and Brett Connolly signings, though.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 7:28 p.m.
Thread:
What if
Wow, where to begin?
1) We've been down the road of watching this defence perform sans Klefbom. It is not pretty!
2) Not even Peter Chiarelli would trade Klefbom for Lehkonen and a mid-pick. Peter Chiarelli!
3) The difference between $4 mil Loui Eriksson and $6 mil Milan Lucic is not Puljujarvi.
4) Edmonton doesn't need Marner. They need guys on ELC's or sub-$1 mil contracts that can perform on the bottom-two lines and maybe a Dzingel/Nyquist type of 2nd line winger. Both would be nice, but no cap space for that because, you know, Chiarelli.
Sorry, this is a swing and a miss.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 25, 2019 at 5:39 p.m.
Thread:
F You Chiarelli
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Boggsauce</b></div><div>I genuinely feel bad for oilers fans. Chia really screwed this team up</div></div>
He's the gift that keeps on giving. Kind of like herpes.
So I've been told...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 8, 2016 at 6:13 p.m.
Thread:
Reasonable oilers
Overall, this is pretty decent. A few things things I would have to question, though:
1) I don't see the Islanders giving up Dal Colle now. He's been absolutely on fire since joining Kingston. I also don't see the Islanders being too keen on adding that much salary in the Hamonic deal, either. Would need a cap dump coming back , which would likely be one of Kulemin, Grabovsky, or Bailey.
2) While I'm certain he will get it this off-season, I personally have no interest in signing a 32 year-old David Backes to a 5 year deal. Guys who play the game the way Backes does tend to decline rapidly right about this age, and I believe his numbers in St. Louis this year are evidence of that.
3) I'm not sure I see the need to extend a 4 year term to Kassian with those numbers. Most I would go is two years, which gives him a chance to prove he can stay sober and productive.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 8, 2016 at 5:16 p.m.
Thread:
Bless This Mess
I had considered putting Drai back on RW to re-formulate Hall-RNH-Drai line that had early success, but lately I've been subscribing more to TMac's theory of two skilled guys with a grinder. With the injuries we've had at C this position, seeing Letestu try to punch above his weight class has really reinforced in my belief of having solid centre ice depth. I think it's likely that Okposo leaves to test free agency, and if that happens, Snow may look to fill that hole with a guy who is really better-suited for the Eastern Conference in Eberle. I know that Snow has been steadfast in his attempt to replace Hamonic with another via trade, but given Hamonic's trade request, I believe that this is a fair offer that both balances salaries and allows him to pursue other options on defence via Free Agency.
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