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Sicarius

Sicarius
Member Since
Nov. 2, 2016
Favourite Team
St. Louis Blues
2nd Favourite Team
Tampa Bay Lightning
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Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 28, 2022 at 2:32 p.m.
Thread: Provorov
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div>Lol. Sicarius if anyone hasn't watched hockey is you. You are a Tampa and St.Louis fan ironically those are the only 2 that have won cups in the past 3 years. I've watched every game this year thanks to multicast. Maybe you should instead of using your eyes (which doesn't really tell anyone anything only that you believe Provorov is a defensive defenseman which is hilarious) you should start looking into the stats how about the fact he has given away the puck more than taken away which also tells you a lot about his defense v his offense.</div></div>


You obviously have some trouble with reading comprehension. You are the one that claimed he is an offensive defenseman. I said he can do it all. Now you are insinuating I said he’s a shutdown defensive D.

I’ve been a hockey fan since ‘80. I have no clue what you’re trying to accomplish by saying Tampa and the Blues have won recently.

You show your complete ignorance about Provorov. He’s a legitimate #1 D and can in fact do everything asked from a top D. I doubt if you’ve ever seen him play outside of Blues games and if you have it further shows your incompetence in evaluating NHL players.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 26, 2022 at 11:34 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 19, 2022 at 11:43 p.m.
Thread: Chychrun will be a Blue
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>West_Virginia_Take_Me_Home</b></div><div>You trade away the teams best player for futures when we are in win mode now? That doesn't make any sense.</div></div>

Army looked for trade deals so obviously he tried to meet Tarasenko’s demand. Sometimes as a GM you’re put in a tough spot and you do things for the good of the future.

People complained when Backes wasn’t resigned and when Stastny was traded etc..etc..

Nobody in the press has reported Tarasenko has rescinded his trade request. In fact it was reported in December he indeed still wanted to be traded.

The Blues have a plethora of forwards. They need a #1 LHD. That’s going to require a chunk of cap space. Organizations always want to trade from a position of strength. Trading Tarasenko next offseason frees up cap space to sign free agents and potentially fit a #1 LHD on the roster.

I don’t necessarily want to see Tarasenko traded. I’d prefer he play his entire career as a Blue. I think he’d be a lock to get his jersey retired if he stayed and signed another contract. I just think it’s more probable he gets traded.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 11, 2022 at 12:24 a.m.
Thread: Singing the Blues
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>suburbanrobot</b></div><div>I mean...you are moving the goalposts. You said in your last post "Tkachuk Would not be the best player on the Blues roster". That's not correct and I cited a bunch of stuff to basically prove it out, though not sure I should have bothered because you dismissed it as sounding like an agent asking for more money.

So now that we have established that Tkachuk would in fact be the best player on the Blues roster, we get to the work of figuring out a fair deal for him. In this case, the proposal was basically Tarasenko and Thomas for Tkachuk (I'll ignore the rest to keep it simple).

Tkachuk would come with let's say 8x8.5 AAV.

Tarasenko has 1x7.5 and then is gone. Thomas has 1x2.8 but the Blues have team control thereafter. He likely either takes a deal like 8x6.5 (maybe a bit more) or a 3-4 year bridge deal at a slightly lower cost.

So your two options:

Scenario 1 (trade Tarasenko for pick+prospect): Thomas at 2.8 year 1 and ~6.5 for several more years, 1st round pick, mid-level prospect
Scenario 2 (trade Tarasenko + Thomas for Tkachuk): Tkachuk at 8x8.5

Then the question -- would you trade Thomas + a 1st round pick (Tarasenko return) + a mid-level prospect (Tarasenko return) for Tkachuk on a long term deal? I say yes, you probably say no. Either way, it certainly isn't a "ludicrous" play as you said in your first post.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>suburbanrobot</b></div><div>I mean...you are moving the goalposts. You said in your last post "Tkachuk Would not be the best player on the Blues roster". That's not correct and I cited a bunch of stuff to basically prove it out, though not sure I should have bothered because you dismissed it as sounding like an agent asking for more money.

So now that we have established that Tkachuk would in fact be the best player on the Blues roster, we get to the work of figuring out a fair deal for him. In this case, the proposal was basically Tarasenko and Thomas for Tkachuk (I'll ignore the rest to keep it simple).

Tkachuk would come with let's say 8x8.5 AAV.

Tarasenko has 1x7.5 and then is gone. Thomas has 1x2.8 but the Blues have team control thereafter. He likely either takes a deal like 8x6.5 (maybe a bit more) or a 3-4 year bridge deal at a slightly lower cost.

So your two options:

Scenario 1 (trade Tarasenko for pick+prospect): Thomas at 2.8 year 1 and ~6.5 for several more years, 1st round pick, mid-level prospect
Scenario 2 (trade Tarasenko + Thomas for Tkachuk): Tkachuk at 8x8.5

Then the question -- would you trade Thomas + a 1st round pick (Tarasenko return) + a mid-level prospect (Tarasenko return) for Tkachuk on a long term deal? I say yes, you probably say no. Either way, it certainly isn't a "ludicrous" play as you said in your first post.</div></div>


I tried showing you that advanced stats isn’t the end of your discussion. I don’t think Tkachuk would be the best nor most talented now most valuable player on the Blues.

Kyrou, Buchnevich , and Tarasenko all have higher p/gp than Tkachuk. This isn’t a one category thing when weighing value to the team. When you factor in everything, cost, stats, team control, position, it’s fairly easy to say Tkachuk would not be the best player nor most valuable.

It’s ok if you disagree.

Yes I stand firmly by this proposal is ludicrous by a landslide.

If you spent time evaluating the Blues roster you would see this isn’t what they need at all. The most glaring need is a #1 LHD and it’s not close.

So I would propose not only are any of your options not realistic, they don’t address roster needs.

The correct offer is to trade futures for the LHD in Chychrun, Lindholm, etc..

The next move is to trade Tarasenko for a futures package after this year.

This would give a roster like the following in 22-23.

Saad ROR Perron
Kyrou Thomas Schenn
Buchnevich Barbashev Kostin
Brown Bozak Sundqvist

Chychrun, Parayko
Krug Faulk
Mikkola Perunovich

This is how Army builds rosters. It’s death by a million cuts instead of incredibly top heavy superstar teams like Edmonton etc..

I also disagree with your estimate of Tkachuk getting anything less than 9 million per season, but we’ll see
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 10, 2022 at 9:32 p.m.
Thread: Singing the Blues
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>suburbanrobot</b></div><div>I'm not sure what is wrong here?

1) The list of Blues players that you could argue today are better than Matthew Tkachuk start and end with Jordan Kyrou. By any advanced metric you want to use (Corsi, Fenwick, Point Shares, etc.) Tkachuk is better than anyone the Blues have signed. His 4.4 point share is higher than anyone on the roster (Kyrou is the Blues' highest with 4.3). He has a higher Corsi (both actual and relative) than anyone on the roster (Krug is team best with 7.1 rel at even strength, Tkachuk is at 9.2). And it isn't like this is a one year flash thing -- Tkachuk has been consistently really good for several seasons. It should not be a controversial take that he's a better player than the Blues have. That's not a slight; he's just a truly great player and the Blues are good because they have a lot of guys that are very good.

2) The Blues are absolutely "losing Tarasenko" unless he has a massive change of heart and decides to re-up with the team after next year. A very unlikely prospect at this point.

3) Agree on your return for Tarasenko if the Blues were not contending and shipping him out for picks. This is different -- Tkachuk is a better/more valuable player than Tarasenko and anyone that isn't a massive Blues homer would steadfastly agree.

4) In this case you are shipping Tarasenko for Tkachuk so not sure how the Blues would be overstocked with wingers. It's not like Tkachuk would be blocking a world beating talent.

5) Yes, cap is tricky. Tkachuk probably 8.5x8. You lose Tarasenko's 7.5, but then you also have to pay Kyrou who will command at least 7.5. Thomas will need 5.5-6.0 in his own right so DA has a LOT of cap navigation to work out. Schenn/Parayko/Binnington/Krug/Faulk contracts are really tough in an environment where the cap isn't going up.</div></div>


Let’s define losing Tarasenko. If Seattle had taken him that would have been losing him. What the Blues trade him and get a 1st and valuable assets this no longer qualifies as losing. Losing a player refers to getting nothing in return when a player leaves the organization.

The Blues lost Brett Hul for example.

Your use of advanced state sounds like an agent arguing for more money.

Tkachuk is in the last year of his deal. Realistically, what’s his next deal look like, 9+ million per season? You don’t have to convince Blues fans that Tkachuk is good. We all know he’s a great player but he’s not a generational player. I wouldn’t want to pay him what he will get if I were a GM.

The value of a player isn’t just measured in advanced stats. For example, I’d rather pay Perron close to 4 million for the next 4 years than pay Tkachuk 9 etc..

Pretty much all Blues fans would like Tkachuk on the roster if the circumstances were right. Neither this trade nor real life presents it.