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SlickWilly

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Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 12:03 p.m.
Thread: Who says no
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 8:18 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JeffGorton</b></div><div>Those pick value charts always take the average value of the pick. No context between how strong a draft is. Reality is, the difference between Celebrini and Parekh for example is much smaller than traditional difference between 1st overall and 5th. These charts also dont take into consideration the potential of a player during the draft discussions. They just take the data the how many NHL players come from this pick and create a value for it. In you draft in the top 10, you arent drafting for just a bog standard NHL player, you are drafting who you believe will be the best NHL player and for many teams, based on the positions of need. Those values arent taken into consideration when calculating a picks value.

An example of the pick chart not working is the Sharks making a trade with the Yotes in 2022. The trade was 27, 34,and 45 for 11. Sharks ended up getting essentially a late 2nd in extra value but got smoked in the trade because they couldve had Denton Mateychuk, Rutger McGroarty or Jonathan Lekkerimaki with that pick instead of the bums they drafted. The pick chart would say the Sharks won that trade. Everyone else says they lost it very badly.

This trade i proposed gives the sharks 4 things

a top 5 pick to draft a forward of slightly lesser value (Catton over Celebrini isnt that large of a gap) or a Dman like Parekh
a #4/#5 D man right now (Xhekaj has been on the 2nd pair for months now and is actually succeeding there with Savard)
A former 1st rounder with NHL experience in Barron
And a late 1st the next year

The Sharks have 1 future D man on their roster in Shakir Mukhamadullin. Theyll be garbage next year as well giving them another top 5 pick. (There is 1 Dman projected to go top 10 next year and the drop off for Dmen after Hensler is crazy).

Celebrini isnt a franchise changing player. Hes amazing but the gap in potential between him and Parekh is much smaller than then gap between a top 5 forward in 2025 and a Dman in 2025. Argubaly, there are 2 players just as good as him in Hagens and Martone. Add in Misa, Frondell, McQueen and Ryabkin, youve got 6 elite forwards</div></div>

I think people are underselling Celebrini because he wasnt sold as a franchise guy before the season began. His production in college this year rivals that of Fantilli's last year on a team that doesn't have anywhere near the talent that Michigan had last year, all while being 8 months younger. Is he a Bedard? No. But I think if Fantilli and him were in the same draft class, their draft stocks would be almost identical, with Fantilli probably having an edge due to size. But, I will agree that the top 2-5 is pretty close together at this point. In terms of overall value, I think the package is there. But, I'm always a believer in the saying that whoever gets the best player in the deal wins the trade, and the conditions around the Flames pick make it a little bit more of a risk than I would like to take if I was trading out of 1OA.
Forum: Armchair-GMSun. at 4:25 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat. at 1:23 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>exo2769</b></div><div>Not a McQueen fan? I'll need to take a closer look. I hear you on physicality in juniors translating to NHL ability. Some kids just grow up faster than others. I'm sure your not a Cayden Lindstrom fan then either?</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Garak</b></div><div>I don't think this opinion is going to age well. But we shall see. I think if McQueen falls in the draft order, it will be because others rise, and not because of his own ability. He is going to be an exceptional top 6 power forward, imo.



Passing on Lindstrom is going going to be regretted by a lot of teams if he doesn't go in the top 5. haha



I disagree. I think there is a ton of potential outside of the top 10, and even into the 2nd round. Iginla, Misa, Chernyshov, Artamonov, Sennecke, Boisvert, Stiga, Brunicke, Badinka, Freij, Hutson, Masse, Basha, Parascak, Kiviharju, Jiricek, I could go on and on. There are so many guys with top of the lineup potential in there.

If we are comparing to last year, yeah, it's definitely "weaker." But last year was an abnormally deep draft, that we probably won't see again for a while. On average, this is a very good draft without any steep dropoffs, aside from after Celebrini and then another somewhere in the mid 2nd to early 3rd, probably. Though, I think the drop off after Celebrini has more to do with readiness than what it will look like with the benefit of hindsight in a few years.</div></div>

I am not as high on Lindstrom as others (would definitely prefer Demidov or Levshunov) but he's a different case than what I outlined. At this time last year, Lindstrom wasn't very noticed by many and definitely wasnt regarded as an elite prospect. February birthday, so not just better than others due to age and earlier development. His game isn't entirely built around his size, as he has good speed and good puck skills. McQueen's draft profile about his speed and puck skills come with the qualifiers *for his size* which never really excites me, and its built on the hope that it will continue to improve. Not to knock the kid or say that he's gonna bust or anything. There's a reason I don't work as a scout! Just trends i've noticed when scouting prospects a year out
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 19 at 6:45 p.m.
Thread: If only if
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 15 at 11:23 p.m.