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Spanky227

Tspky
Member Since
Feb 20, 2016
Favourite Team
New York Rangers
Forum Posts
3348
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Forum Threads
323
Forum: Armchair-GM16 hours ago
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 8:46 am
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 8:24 am
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 11:42 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TrueCanuck</b></div><div>&amp; it's laughable that you still think Kakko has so much value. That's where you evaluate this deal wrong. Kakko wasn't a guy that was a projected top pick for years before the draft. He exploded in his draft year and his value skyrocketed, good for him. Since entering the league, he hasn't done much. 40 points in 119 games for a guy that starts in the offensive zone almost 60% of the time is not anything special. When you look into his advanced numbers, they aren't that great either. He's career corsiFor% is only 48%, career FF% is only 47.5%, career xGF is 44.5, career xGA is 46.3.. do I really need to go on from here? That's nothing special from a recent 2nd overall pick.

Here's another player's first 2 seasons that went 3rd overall to compare to see what you think of them:
Games Played: 113
Points: 58 (22G, 36A)
OZ Start Percentage: 54.55%
corsiFor: 49.3%
FenwickFor: 50.6%
expected GF: 49.95
expected GA: 46


So based on these 2 players first 2 seasons, who would you rather have or think would have more value? Well player B that I listed was better in every stat I listed that suggested he created more offence while playing a stronger defensive game and still putting up more points. So if that was me, I'd take player B every day of the week. Do you know who that is?

....

Well player B is Alex Galchenyuk. Similar story with him as he was drafted and came along in his career. Both players weren't much on the radar until their draft seasons, then exploded. The difference is that Galchenyuk went off in his season before his draft year, then was injured for the majority of his draft season. Alex Galchenyuk had a lot of hype out of his draft, being a highly offensive centre that some saw as a future #1 centre, but even after his second season in the league a lot of people were doubting that. Now I'm not saying that their value would have been exactly the same, but what I am saying is that from what Kakko has performed on the ice so far in his career, doesn't suggest he has an insane amount of value.


Now where Lafreniere comes in, is that he was hyped up since he was 16 playing in the QMJHL and compared to Crosby from the get go. He performed at an exceptional level in all 3 of his junior seasons and on the international stage with team Canada. Everyone in the league sees him as a future top line player that can change a franchise. This season hasn't been the best, but he's put up 0.36 points per game which is still more than Kakko has put up in either of his seasons. &amp; no one is doubting that Lafreniere will live up to his potential either. That's still worth more than 2 first round picks just himself alone, can you say that Kakko is worth that much? I'd bet there's no GM in the league that would give up multiple firsts for Kakko right now.

I apologize for the long read, but my point is that just because a guy was drafted in the 1st round or taken 2nd overall, doesn't mean he has "first round pick value". Buffalo said they want the equivalent of 4 1st round picks. If Kakko was in the deal, that might count for 1. If Lafreniere was in it, that likely counts for at least 2. But if Adam Fox was in it, would he count as a "first round pick value" or would he count for more than that? But by your logic he can't because he was taken in the 3rd round. Bottom line: where a guy was selected doesn't asses his value. Kakko being taken 2nd overall recently doesn't mean he has high value. You have to look at their current production and their future projection. &amp; that's why a deal for Eichel starts with Lafreniere, because Eichel produces at a high rate currently, and projected to produce at a higher rate each year beyond this. Kakko's production doesn't project to be that high, he might be at best a point per game player. But Lafreniere's production is projected to be around Eichel's in the future once he develops.

Final thing, sure you say New York can wait till Eichel's NMC kicks in to lower the value, sure. That only works if 2 things happen:
1. New York knows that he wants to go to New York
2. Eichel actually wants to go to New York

You think when he can control his destination that it has to be New York? What about his home state and going back to the Bruins? What about the sunny beaches and high celebrity status in LA? What about a consistent contender in a low tax state in Vegas? Same for Tampa? Or maybe he grew up slightly cheering for another team that he'd like to go to. You don't know. &amp; you take the risk for being stubborn now.

Cheers.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TrueCanuck</b></div><div>&amp; it's laughable that you still think Kakko has so much value. That's where you evaluate this deal wrong. Kakko wasn't a guy that was a projected top pick for years before the draft. He exploded in his draft year and his value skyrocketed, good for him. Since entering the league, he hasn't done much. 40 points in 119 games for a guy that starts in the offensive zone almost 60% of the time is not anything special. When you look into his advanced numbers, they aren't that great either. He's career corsiFor% is only 48%, career FF% is only 47.5%, career xGF is 44.5, career xGA is 46.3.. do I really need to go on from here? That's nothing special from a recent 2nd overall pick.

Here's another player's first 2 seasons that went 3rd overall to compare to see what you think of them:
Games Played: 113
Points: 58 (22G, 36A)
OZ Start Percentage: 54.55%
corsiFor: 49.3%
FenwickFor: 50.6%
expected GF: 49.95
expected GA: 46


So based on these 2 players first 2 seasons, who would you rather have or think would have more value? Well player B that I listed was better in every stat I listed that suggested he created more offence while playing a stronger defensive game and still putting up more points. So if that was me, I'd take player B every day of the week. Do you know who that is?

....

Well player B is Alex Galchenyuk. Similar story with him as he was drafted and came along in his career. Both players weren't much on the radar until their draft seasons, then exploded. The difference is that Galchenyuk went off in his season before his draft year, then was injured for the majority of his draft season. Alex Galchenyuk had a lot of hype out of his draft, being a highly offensive centre that some saw as a future #1 centre, but even after his second season in the league a lot of people were doubting that. Now I'm not saying that their value would have been exactly the same, but what I am saying is that from what Kakko has performed on the ice so far in his career, doesn't suggest he has an insane amount of value.


Now where Lafreniere comes in, is that he was hyped up since he was 16 playing in the QMJHL and compared to Crosby from the get go. He performed at an exceptional level in all 3 of his junior seasons and on the international stage with team Canada. Everyone in the league sees him as a future top line player that can change a franchise. This season hasn't been the best, but he's put up 0.36 points per game which is still more than Kakko has put up in either of his seasons. &amp; no one is doubting that Lafreniere will live up to his potential either. That's still worth more than 2 first round picks just himself alone, can you say that Kakko is worth that much? I'd bet there's no GM in the league that would give up multiple firsts for Kakko right now.

I apologize for the long read, but my point is that just because a guy was drafted in the 1st round or taken 2nd overall, doesn't mean he has "first round pick value". Buffalo said they want the equivalent of 4 1st round picks. If Kakko was in the deal, that might count for 1. If Lafreniere was in it, that likely counts for at least 2. But if Adam Fox was in it, would he count as a "first round pick value" or would he count for more than that? But by your logic he can't because he was taken in the 3rd round. Bottom line: where a guy was selected doesn't asses his value. Kakko being taken 2nd overall recently doesn't mean he has high value. You have to look at their current production and their future projection. &amp; that's why a deal for Eichel starts with Lafreniere, because Eichel produces at a high rate currently, and projected to produce at a higher rate each year beyond this. Kakko's production doesn't project to be that high, he might be at best a point per game player. But Lafreniere's production is projected to be around Eichel's in the future once he develops.

Final thing, sure you say New York can wait till Eichel's NMC kicks in to lower the value, sure. That only works if 2 things happen:
1. New York knows that he wants to go to New York
2. Eichel actually wants to go to New York

You think when he can control his destination that it has to be New York? What about his home state and going back to the Bruins? What about the sunny beaches and high celebrity status in LA? What about a consistent contender in a low tax state in Vegas? Same for Tampa? Or maybe he grew up slightly cheering for another team that he'd like to go to. You don't know. &amp; you take the risk for being stubborn now.

Cheers.</div></div>


Boston, Tampa and Vegas have no cap so those teams are really moot. I brought up LA and their prospects as they are the only other team that I can see getting Eichel (but they really don't have a need for a center with Kopitar, Byfield, Turcotte and Villardi)

In terms of advanced stats, I prefer the relative ones as they show the individuals players impact on their team. Many times players will have inflated stats due to being on a strong team.

If you think kakko doesn't have value, look at his advanced stats from last year to this year. No one saying he is McDavid or even Eichel. What's being said, is that no team would include him, another two top prospects and two first round picks for a player not named McDavid. As I already mentioned in my previous post, Columbus owns Toronto's and Tampa's 1st rounder this year. They would definitely trade both of those for Kakko.

It seems you misunderstood me in my original post. You were only factoring players like Laf and Kakko that satisfy the first round pick qualification. As I said, "This narrow view of 1st round pick also discredits players that were picked in the 2nd or 3rd round that have dramatically increased their value. Zack Jones is looking like a steal, Robertson as well." This clearly applies to Fox as well so thanks for agreeing with me?

In terms of NMC, obviously Eichel wants a chance to win a cup which is why he wants to leave Buffalo. He won't be looking to go to a team on the decline (aging teams like WSH, NYI, etc) . If he wants to compete for years, he will want to go to an up and comer whose window is just opening. Rangers and LA fit this mold perfectly (although as I stated earlier, LA can stand pat and be 100% fine, if not better off). The only other teams I can see that'll be true contenders are Carolina (who also will have no cap after extensions to Svech, Dougie and Necas), Ottawa, &amp; Toronto (no cap either or a need with Matthews/Tavares).

Cheers.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 6 at 8:58
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TrueCanuck</b></div><div>Lafrieniere has the much much higher ceiling. There's a reason why this kid has been on NHL team's radar since he was about 15 years old. A subpar rookie year won't change that. Strome has showed he's not much when he doesn't play with guys like Panarin. Buffalo doesn't have anyone like him so Strome wouldn't produce for them and would have very little value. Brett Howden is 23 years old and has yet to show he's anything more than a bottom 6 player, Seattle could be taking him anyways so there's almost no value in him to Buffalo. Libor Hajek is likely a career bottom pair defenceman, and he's 23 years old with only 75 career games to his name. Those kinda guys are a dime a dozen and can be had anywhere, wouldn't say he adds much value to this deal. The multiple 1sts will 90% be between picks 20-32 in each draft which after the top 5 to maybe top 10, picks value fall dramatically off. The 2nd, again it's late so not much value.

Buffalo has already said they want the equivalent of 4 1st round picks. This doesn't have that. It has maybe 3, but again the late 1sts don't carry the same value. New York is likely looking at at least Lafrieniere, Lundqvist or Miller, and a 1st round pick as the starter. If they say no to that, then Adam Fox has to come into the conversation. If New York still says no, then Buffalo just doesn't take any more calls. I'm sure Los Angeles would be able to make a better deal since they're loaded with top prospects. You have to think of the deal from the other team's perspective. &amp; this deal as is just isn't enticing to Buffalo at all.</div></div>

Okay, so Strome hasn’t proved he can perform without Panarin? He was a point per game player when Panarin was out this year.

So Buffalo wants the equivalent of 4 1st round picks. That’s great. Doesn’t mean they will get that. Also, by the logic you’ve stated , Columbus could trade Tampa’s pick and Toronto’s pick for the 1st overall this year? Of course not! Lafreniere and kakko have more value than just a “1st round pick”. For LA, would that mean that package would have to be turcotte, byfield, vilardi and a 1st? Of course not.

Ppl saying laf or kakko plus additional high end picks and multiple first round picks are crazy.

Strome = minumum 2nd round value
Chytil = former 1st rounder developing well
Lundkvist = former 1st rounder developing well
1st round pick in 2021
2nd in 2022

That’s essentially qualifies the “four first round picks value”.

This narrow view of 1st round pick also discredits players that were picked in the 2nd or 3rd round that have dramatically increased their value. Zack Jones is looking like a steal, Robertson as well.

Whatever the trade ends up being, there is no way rangers part with lafreniere. 0% chance. Kakko is maybe a 5% chance. Miller is probably 10% chance. It will end up on the other pieces that Buffalo requires along with them.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 6 at 11:40
Thread: Kuznetsov
Forum: Armchair-GMApr 30 at 1:17