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Spicoli
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 14, 2020 at 9:57 p.m.
Thread:
Receiving dumps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>Bernier could be had for peanuts. Fleury’s value doesn’t change that dramatically just based off of $3 million retention.</div></div>
That's fair.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 14, 2020 at 9:37 p.m.
Thread:
Receiving dumps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheAlien</b></div><div>They don't need to move anybody to sign their RFAs</div></div>
That is correct. But depending on what the 3 cost, they look like they my need space to fill out the roster behind them.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 14, 2020 at 9:34 p.m.
Thread:
Receiving dumps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OlegP</b></div><div>LOL your not getting a 1st rounder from the Canucks no matter how you dress it up. That's a joke. The Canucks have already punted on this year so they don't have to deal a 1st to dump salary. Makes no sense how you do a 180 degree turn all of sudden</div></div>
Fair enough.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 14, 2020 at 9:32 p.m.
Thread:
Receiving dumps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mhockey91</b></div><div>Vegas could just retain 3 million on fleury and trade him for all that by this guys logic rather than paying Detroit to take him LOL
Completely contradicts himself. So fleury to dump costs: hauge a first and a 5th, but after retaining 3 million his value is now... Smith, Mike
Larsson, Adam
Räsänen, Aapeli [Reserve List]
2022 1st round pick (EDM)
Makes absolutely 0 sense.</div></div>
Vegas would be getting a 1b goalie back in Bernier, as well as cap relief this year in the amount of $3mill and next year in the amount of $7mill. Just thought that they could use it, but I could be wrong.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 14, 2020 at 9:25 p.m.
Thread:
Receiving dumps
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheAlien</b></div><div>Canucks decline easily you aren't getting a 1st and a prospect for a 2nd and 1mil of capspace</div></div>
The intent behind my idea was to get Vancouver $3million of cap spacee in 2021 off-season when they'll have 3 big RFAs to resign in a likely flat cap year. As for the pick swap, it could very likely be moving back from 20th to 33rd if Vancouver improves some. So more like a high 2nd round value, not an outright 1st.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Dec. 13, 2020 at 4:53 p.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tvh_0703</b></div><div>In the current UFA market I think Tampa would just add cheap depth like Toronto if they are able to create room and want to give their prospects time to develop. I don't think they would get rid of Cernak and a 1st rounder. I think they would trade away Cernak to offload Johnson or Gourde and maybe bring a pick back in the deal. But if they offload Cernak, they only have to clear space to sign Cirelli, so if they decide to move the other of the 2 it would only be if they decide it is worth moving a 1st in order to sign Cirelli to more term. I also think they would trade Killorn for an alright return before they use a 1st rounder to get rid of one of the others. The UFA market will probably be cheaper for the next couple years, not to mention players wanna go to a contender like Tampa, so they can replace someone like Killorn and resign Goodrow and Coleman for cheaper and other UFAs for cheaper.
My guess is they get rid of Cernak, protect Hedman, Sergachev, and Foote (and maybe McDonagh), and leave whoever is left of Johnson, Gourde, and Palat (and McDonagh if they need to protect more forwards) to be taken by Seattle and create cap space for themselves.</div></div>
So you think Tampa will be able to trade Cernak and Johnson to a team for a 4th? Also, Killorn could be moved with TB getting a pick in return and not having to give anything else up?
Killorn is interesting. There seems to be a large divide of opinions on whether he is worth a 2nd/3rd round pick in return, or whether he would cost an asset to move his contract....especially when there appears to be a limited amount of teams that could afford his cap hit and are a potential contender. If the team is in a rebuild, than I would imagine they would view him as a cap dump and a risk to have on the books as they look to future seasons and their roster construction plans. It will be interesting to see what happens with him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 9, 2020 at 6:45 p.m.
Thread:
Raymond
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BStinson</b></div><div>Wouldn’t the same apply to Sakic for the expansion draft? Obviously the timing would be the critical part but that Toews deal could’ve gone to anyone so if I’m Yzerman I don’t touch Graves unless he’s cheaper than Toews.</div></div>
As a Detroit fan, I think Yzerman should go after Graves...especially if a 2nd and 3rd would get it done, though that would likely be after this season but before the expansion draft.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Dec. 8, 2020 at 2:49 p.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tvh_0703</b></div><div>I agree that Tampa will have to make a drastic move to sign Cernak and Cirelli, but there is no way they need to trade away a 1st and Cernak plus take on a useless contract just to offload Johnson and Killorn. Johnson will probably need an asset attached to make the deal happen, but Killorn was being looked at by a number of teams and could probably fetch an small asset. Tampa has just been avoiding this because they'd rather get rid of Gourde and Johnson than Killorn who is better and slightly cheaper. If I were Tampa I would trade Foote or Cernak along with Johnson or Gourde to a team with cap space since one of those 2 Dmen will be gone in the expansion draft anyways. They can safely go Kucherov-Point-Stamkos-Cirelli up front, but on the back-end they have Hedman-Sergachev and 2 of McDonagh-Foote-Cernak. Maybe they accept losing McDonagh, but then trading one of the other 2 still allows them to resign and protect someone like Coleman.</div></div>
So do you think that switching out Killorn for Gourde would make a fair deal? So cap dumps of Johnson, Coburn and Gourde would net Detroit Cernak, Barré-Boulet and a 1st round pick? Would Tampa want back Erne or Biega? I could understand them not being interested in Glendening at his cost, but the reason I added him to the deal was to be a depth piece in case one or more of their prospects needs some more seasoning...so essentially he was just insurance.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Dec. 8, 2020 at 7:03 a.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>moli92</b></div><div>It seems like a pretty lateral move for COL - both play similar roles (heavy defensive mins, heavy PK usage, identical TOI/GP both on good teams). Graves is likely gone in the expansion draft after this season anyway, so I think from COLs perspective they are basically choosing which D man they want to rent for 1 season. In terms of handedness Cernak fits better than Graves on paper, but Cole has played enough on the right side that I would still be comfortable running with 4LHD and 2RHD - I dont think its that big of a factor. Filppula would probably be a healthy scratch on COL tbh, and even at 50% retention I would rather not take him. Overall the value seems ok, but imo Avs would probably stick with Graves because he already knows their systems and has chemistry with the team already</div></div>
Yeah, my idea was kind of trying to figure out a way to free up some more cap space for Colorado (assuming that Cernak's contract comes in below the $3.1 that Graves makes) so they can add more forward depth while balancing the D handedness. Also, I added the 3rd as a sweetener because Colorado may be able to package that pick with another pick/prospect in an expansion draft deal....but I agree that a Graves for Cernak swap may be risky for Colorado because Cernak may not mesh with Colorado the way that Graves does.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Dec. 6, 2020 at 8:43 a.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>reelkena</b></div><div>This is why I never trust someone when they say something like " I'm always wanting to learn more." They just want to seem like they're capable of learning but they're always like this guy. Anyone who reads this, don't fall for it on capfriendly. No one wants to learn, they just want to be right and seem double smart.
The lack of foresight was about cap room availability not about Johnson himself. Nobody could know exactly where their cap would be. That's how deals like Schmidt for a 3rd happen, because Pietro comes to Vegas. You can't always plan for that and you have to adjust accordingly. What if Vegas took Johnson then signed Pietro. They're be dead. That's what foresight means here.</div></div>
Unfortunately you are wrong about me, I do want to learn. So please do educate me.
As for you using Vegas to support your premise that GMs lacked foresight about their cap, that must be a joke right? You really think that a signing and a trade of two highly recognizable players came together quickly on the same day....or that maybe the negotiations on both fronts for Vegas took some time and analysis about best possible outcomes for them when they chose to make both deals.
Now getting back to Johnson and Tampa, it seems pretty clear that teams did not lack the foresight in regards to making a decision on whether to claim him or not, but quite the opposite. They were able to glean that cap space is a huge asset right now that not many teams have, and even though Johnson is a solid player, the money and term are making it appear that he has negative value to other teams.
Of course time will tell and I guess one of us will eat crow. If a team trades for Johnson and gives up an asset for him or claims him if he gets placed on waivers again, then you will be proven right. If Tampa has to attach an asset to him to trade him, or no one claims him if placed on waivers a 2nd time than I guess you won't be right.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Dec. 5, 2020 at 3:59 p.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>reelkena</b></div><div>Assuming you're right for a second about the math, you don't try to solve 5 problems in one trade. If you have to move multiple people you limit your trades by about 99% if you try to fix it in one deal. It's not in Tampa's benefit to liquidate this much ever let alone in one deal.
The numbers will be adjusted after a player is moved and depending on who comes back so none of these matter currently.
Tyler not getting claimed has no importance on his value since free agency and RFA's made it impossible for teams to know where their cap would be later on. He wasn't claimed not for a lack of interest but for a lack of available foresight. As dust settles his availability becomes more intriguing again. (I hope the dumb Kings fan from another post sees this part)
The only thing I would say for sure, 100% is there's too many moving pieces for teams to make deals this impactful in a cap crunch no matter what. If they move Johnson they would be able to reevaluate, sign a RFA and look. I know their spot isn't as bad as it looks but If it takes another adjustment after moving Johnson then fine, but it depends on the return and if their is cap coming back also.</div></div>
Saying that GMs around the league lacked foresight when it came to making a decision about claiming Johnson or not while being on waivers is laughable.
As for my math, check it yourself and you'll find it is accurate. Tampa needs to move more than just Johnson and that is very easy to see...even if they pay to move him with no return.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Dec. 5, 2020 at 8:41 a.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>reelkena</b></div><div>This team is not just what you see on capfriendly. They have AHL and foreign players at ELC level ready to play and contracts they can bury etc. I'm not delving into this with a Detroit fan that thinks the best thing for another team is to give them 4 top assets and take all the crap he wants to get rid of.</div></div>
I can understand the idea that you wouldn't want the players that I suggested back in a trade, and due to the depth of Tampa's prospect pool it is a strong argument. With that said, the math on your suggestion to trade one of the $5 million forwards and burying as many other contracts as needed to be cap compliant simply does not work.
If you bury a contract you only get cap relief of $1,075,000 for this season. Then you have to replace that player on the roster to get to 23 players. Even if you call up a player on a league minimum deal of $700,000 that only results in, at most, an actual savings of $375,000 per buried player.
If Cirelli and Cernak sign for reasonably cheap bridge deals of $4,000,000 and $2,000,000 respectively you would still need to bury essentially every player that is making over $1,075,000 for the season and replace them with a league minimum player.
Just because I'm a Detroit fan doesn't mean that I can't understand what kind of cap trouble Tampa is in, and as such, yes I think Tampa's best option would be to make trades....or pray that another team bites on one or more of their players when they waive them to bury the contract....but of course that may be a long shot as proven by Tyler Johnson not getting claimed by any other team when he was waived last month.
But, if I am missing an easier option please do enlighten me, I'm always wanting to learn more.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 4, 2020 at 4:33 p.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>avs do not have the cap space for that move, also they have no use or room for bottom 6 healthy scratch dead weight in Filppula
Cernak is will sign more than that</div></div>
Would Avs be interested in a Cernak for Graves type swap, even if there have to be sweeteners given?
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Dec. 4, 2020 at 3:56 p.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>reelkena</b></div><div>Any one of the 3, 5.x million forwards.</div></div>
So if they move 1 guy at $5 million a year, that would take them from negative $2 million in cap space to $3 million in cap space with only 18 guys on the roster....and still needing to sign Cirelli and Cernak.
So how exactly would that solve Tampa's cap issue?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 4, 2020 at 11:58 a.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>villenash</b></div><div>NSH isn't in a position to give 1st rounders to 30+ year old's with long-term contracts, even with that retention.</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>villenash</b></div><div>NSH isn't in a position to give 1st rounders to 30+ year old's with long-term contracts, even with that retention.</div></div>
Very easily true, but why I said that it could be to anyone that wants to add secondary scoring.
TDL deals are difficult to predict because you never know which teams makes a real run at it and which players step up/fade away.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 4, 2020 at 11:56 a.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bhavikp27</b></div><div>No thanks, Staal is a top5 worst D in the league. Move Nemeth instead, you'll get more for him (and he isn't bad).</div></div>
I made the edit. Does that look better?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 4, 2020 at 11:53 a.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bhavikp27</b></div><div>No thanks, Staal is a top5 worst D in the league. Move Nemeth instead, you'll get more for him (and he isn't bad).</div></div>
Very good point, and I think Detroit would be willing to move either of them at the TDL.
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Dec. 4, 2020 at 10:19 a.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
Any Colorado fans think their end of the proposed trade would work, or would it need to be adjusted, or would it be a flat no?
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Dec. 4, 2020 at 10:16 a.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>reelkena</b></div><div>It looks like you think that Tampa needs to move out half their roster when they really only need to move one guy.</div></div>
Who is that one guy they need to move out to make the numbers work?
Forum:
Trade Machine Proposals
Dec. 3, 2020 at 1:11 p.m.
Thread:
Just a thought
Obviously this isn't going to happen, but wanted to see how it would look.
The thought was that it would cost Tampa Cernak, ABB and a 1st to dump Johnson, Killorn and Coburn to free up cap space for Cirelli and to fill out the rest of their roster. Tampa gets back 2 relatively cheap bottom 6 forwards for depth and a depth D-man.
Det. takes on assets for cap dumps from Tampa.
Det. flips Cernak to Colorado for Graves because Det could use more LD help while, on paper, Colorado could balance their D by switching a RD to LD. Cernak would essentially take up the same role Graves had before, but would probably be cheaper on a $2-2.5 bridge deal. I'm assuming that Detroit would need to add to this, so I added the 3rd round pick and a veteran bottom 6 forward at a reduced price.
If Detroit needs to add more, what else would they need to put up?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 5, 2020 at 4:00 p.m.
Thread:
Not going to happen but worth a shot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Cernak wouldn't get you Dunn anyway. And I doubt Perunovich is ready for a line-up job at this time.</div></div>
If Cernak and a 3rd wouldn't get Dunn, what do you think Dunn would cost?
As for Perunovich, depending on what happens with the AHL, I wouldn't be shocked if he got 3rd line minutes as he got adjusted to the NHL.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Nov. 5, 2020 at 3:58 p.m.
Thread:
Not going to happen but worth a shot
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yikes</b></div><div>Tampa would rather keep cernak than trade him for a 2nd I’d think - their d core is better off with him and could get more at TDL if they have to move him or something</div></div>
I'm sure Tampa would rather keep him compared to trade him, but they have some serious cap issues that they are facing with their 3 main RFAs. If they are decide to prioritize the other 2 RFAs, then Cernak may be a cap casualty.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 31, 2020 at 7:32 a.m.
Thread:
Taking advantage of RFACap situations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>Even if the blues gave up and said theyd move Dunn can't they do better than a middling 2nd rounder amd a career ahler.</div></div>
I think this is a good point. Instead of Hickets, the Wings could add a mid-tier prospect. Maybe someone like Robert Mastrosimone or Kasper Kotkansalo as a sweetener?
I just dont think it would be drastically higher then this, otherwise someone would just offer sheet him for a 2nd straight up.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 30, 2020 at 7:53 p.m.
Thread:
Taking advantage of RFACap situations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aedoran</b></div><div>I'm a fellow Wing's fan but I have to agree with the Blues fan. This is like Detroit trading Hronek to STL for Walman or Borgman and a 2nd.</div></div>
In a pure Hronek vs. Dunn vacuum, yes I agree....but Detroit and the Blues are in completely different cap and roster situations. With the Wings Hronek is their clear #1 D man and they have tons of cap space, the Blues play Dunn as their 5th D man and may not be able to afford him with their cap/roster construction.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Oct. 30, 2020 at 7:48 p.m.
Thread:
Taking advantage of RFACap situations
I didnt mean to imply that Dunn would be given up for cap relief, I'm sorry if it came across this way. I was trying to convey that he could be lost due to cap constraints. As for the expansion draft, it seems that since the Blues play him as their 5th dman that they would probably choose 3 other dmen to protect over him....but time will tell.
As for trading for a 2nd, that's what an offer sheet would get them at this price....so that's what I went with.
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