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TML_GM

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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 8, 2019 at 4:23 p.m.
Thread: Cap Motivated Trades ANA NYI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RandyC</b></div><div>I'm quite aware of how the cap works and of Toronto's financial situation. It just makes very little sense why they would throw a bone to Anaheim when they can extract a better return. I could easily see it taking Anaheim's late first to move Kesler's contract in reality, not including getting Johnsson in return. In addition, I would think that Dubas and co would prefer to be dumping salary, not taking more on (LTIR or not).</div></div>

Personally I think you are overvaluing the inclusion of Kesler's contract. As long as the understanding is that he is on LTIR for the next 3 years and he won't return during that span, then throwing him on LTIR holds minimal value. I'm happy to remove him from the deal entirely. I just tossed it in as no-true-cost-to-Toronto incentive for Anaheim, given their less stable finances.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 8, 2019 at 3:56 p.m.
Thread: Cap Motivated Trades ANA NYI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RandyC</b></div><div>Rightly so with Sandin, I don't see Dubas deals him for anything other than a top-2 d-man. There's just no point of the Ducks taking on Zaitsev's contract without getting a solid piece in return (and even more if Manson is involved). I'd take your original deal as well, but it seems bizarre to me why Toronto would want to take on Kesler's deal, especially for so little. Even with him on LTIR, I could still see taking much more to move his contract.</div></div>

Money is meaningless to Toronto. Our hockey team bleeds money and is owned by the two biggest telecom companies in Canada. Both of which own TV networks that show their games and generate a ridiculous amount of advertising revenue . The small amout of Kesler's money they would have to pay is a drop in the ocean to Maple Leafs Sports and Entertainment. Since he is on LTIR, the cap hit disappears.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 8, 2019 at 3:46 p.m.
Thread: Cap Motivated Trades ANA NYI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RandyC</b></div><div>While I like Zaitsev and think he could be serviceable playing sheltered/ 3rd pairing minutes, his contract makes him a negative value asset at this point; Toronto will need to sweeten the deal by adding more to even get trade talks off the ground. In addition, Manson + Ritchie &gt;&gt; Johnsson, so it would take much more to add Zaitsev to that deal. Think Manson + Ritchie for Zaitsev, Kapanen and Sandin or Liljegren as a starting point.</div></div>

I figured as much. Sandin is definitely off the table. He was the steal of the last half of that draft. I would expect him to get a call up half way through the season next year and take Rosen's spot. Liljegren being a RHD (and being expansion draft exempt) holds more value for the Leafs as well, he's playing big minutes on their farm team's Calder Cup run this year too. I'd rather hold on to Zaitsev in this case and try and dump his contract via the expansion draft. He seems to pair well enough with Muzzin. Certainly a big improvement over his pairing with Gardiner. I'm still willing to pull the trigger on the original trade (assuming of course Johnsson contract is going to be over 3.25M and Marner's cap pushes him out.)
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 8, 2019 at 3:40 p.m.
Thread: Cap Motivated Trades ANA NYI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheJoeMan</b></div><div>I'd be weary of acquiring Nick Ritchie. He might be the slowest skater in the league for someone his age. His hands are terrific and he's actually developed as a pretty good passer the last couple of years. But he'll be an absolutely anchor with the way Toronto attacks with speed. Also, Kesler isn't going anywhere. Even if his hip won't allow him to play he still has a full no-move clause and doesn't sound eager to waive it for any reason.</div></div>

Good to know on Ritchie. I've watched him play and he didn't seem that slow. But then again I am old enough to remember Jason Allison skating around in a Leafs jersey. I like his hands around the net, his board play, and of course his physicality (something the Leafs are completely lacking outside of Kadri). I think he puts up some points on the Leafs PP and helps Matthews play a little more physical when he knows he has some backup on his line (he played more to his size when Hyman was on his LW). Leafs happen to have some great skating coaches on their development team too... they got (or is it goat) Freddy Gauthier to be a mobile NHL option.

With regards to Kesler, if he's "retiring" to LTIR then it doesn't matter where his paycheck is coming from as long as he gets it (ask Horton or Clarkson). He can live in Anaheim and walk around the beach with a cane and still get paid.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 8, 2019 at 3:33 p.m.
Thread: Cap Motivated Trades ANA NYI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RandyC</b></div><div>I'd do this in a heartbeat as a Ducks fan, but it seems highly improbable; that probably isn't enough to dump Kesler's contract, and getting Johnsson back is too good to be true. If anything, it would be the other way around, with the Ducks taking on whatever cap they can (think Zaitsev packaged with a pick or two).</div></div>

Well this only goes down if Kesler is "retiring" to LTIR, as is the rumor. He lives on the Leafs LTIR instead of the Ducks and they pickup the tab on any insurance related costs for the next 3 years. It is a minimal value add for the Ducks in this case.

I am interested if there is a package involving Zaitsev and Johnsson that could net the Leafs a similar return from the Ducks and potentially free-up that cap space for a Zaitsev upgrade. Something around Zaitsev + Johnsson for Manson + Ritchie as a base to get it started?
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 8, 2019 at 3:28 p.m.
Thread: Cap Motivated Trades ANA NYI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>joshelkin</b></div><div>I don't think the Mayfield deal is unreasonable. It's one of the better trades I've seen on here involving the Isles and Leafs. I would like to see the 3rd potentially become a 2nd if JHS reaches a certain number of points though. He's a lottery ticket but I honestly think he is very skilled. Just hasn't gotten a fair shake here.</div></div>

Thanks, glad to see I'm not completely off-base on value from the other side.

JHS is certainly a lottery ticket, that's why I included him. With the right support he could still turn into something similar to Kap (at least with offensive production), even if the chances are slim. He's not likely to make the Isles and he won't clear waivers so he doesn't add that much value to the trade. I'd be willing to let the 4th become a 3rd if he hit 15 goals or 45 points. Though we don't have the 4th in 2020, so some other shenanigans would be required.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 8, 2019 at 3:18 p.m.
Thread: Cap Motivated Trades ANA NYI
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>I don't like the Ritchie-Johnsson trade from Toronto's point of view. (I can tell because I <strong>love</strong> it from Anaheim's POV.) Johnsson is a better player already than Ritchie and has a higher upside. I don't see how the modest cap benefit is sufficient to overcome that gap.</div></div>

I'm not all that hot on it either, however when you consider that Ritchie is younger and plays a traditionally late blooming role as a PWF (think Wilson WSH, Ferlund CGY/CAR, Andersen CBJ), it isn't that horrible a gamble (especially with the 2nd included). I think his presence and physicality takes a lot of pressure off of Kadri to be the sole provider of that element on this team as well. Maybe even keeps him available in the first round next season.

In an ideal world, we would sign everyone and be happy. Unfortunately, the cap is a thing.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 7, 2019 at 4:25 p.m.
Thread: The Marleau Solution
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Philvr</b></div><div>Marleau probably disagrees to retire but if we get him to agree to waive his NTC then Ottawa can buy him out and we can sign him to a league min contract, unless ottawa can’t actually buy him out after July 1.</div></div>

Sadly due to the CBA, the buyout and resign is not likely an option. Certainly not with Ottawa as to buy him out prior to the start of next season Marleau would have needed to be on their roster at the trade deadline. Now if they took a player to arbitration and settled, they would be able to buy him out in the summer if he was acquired before July 1 (I think), but that would be before the July 1 bonus was paid by Leafs, Ottawa isn't eating 4+ M in salary, especially in a lump sum cash bonus. This is a scenario I explored 6 months or so ago. Seemed like the perfect solution, until the CBA came knocking. The only way that works is if Toronto gets a rich team to bite on that deal (i.e. NYR), which likely involves losing picks/prospects/etc.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 27, 2019 at 4:25 p.m.
Thread: Kapanen trade and Zaitsev option
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ajp_18</b></div><div>I don’t think Columbus would make that trade tbh. Nash is playing pretty good with Dubinsky right now and both are good in our own zone as defensive forwards. Plus we look to have enough cap that we don’t need to move him. On the other hand I would like to give Zaitzev a try at a 3rd pair RHD, just not at 4.6 for like 5 years.... I’d rather take another pick the the Russian prospect(even though I don’t know who it is).</div></div>

Good to get some perspective on the Zaitsev flip from a CLB fan. Thanks for that. For the Leafs, it only works if the full cap of Zaitsev comes off their books. To be clear, he isn't a horrible player and pure cap dump like most try to label him. He's just an overpaid 4D that can't fit in Toronto due to their cap situation. His offense dried up after his rookie season, but he can give you 18 solid minutes a night as long as you don't ask him to do too much and pair him with a good puck mover. There's a chance he could rediscover his 30-35 point output from his rookie season too.

The Russian prospect was the 31st overall pick in 2016. A bit of a flyer taken at the time, but the Leafs scouts seemed to really believe in him. I think staying in Russia rather than coming over to the AHL hurt his development, but he still has a lot of the raw tools and some size. He plans to come to North America this year. He'd be a top line AHL player on the Leafs, on a team lacking wing depth he might be able to crack an NHL bottom 6 off the bat.

Is it possible that with some additional picks 3rd round or later and some B prospects it might entice CLB? It might give them the option of trading Savard for a forward upgrade.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 27, 2019 at 2:29 p.m.
Thread: Kapanen trade and Zaitsev option
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>Justin Faulk is not an upgrade as far as our defense is concerned, and in my personal opinion, he is not a very good defender.</div></div>
Personal opinions, are personal opinions. However, the opinions of most who have watched Faulk play this year have indicated that he has made strides in his game, especially defensively. If I am choosing between a 38 yer old Ron Hainsey or keeping Zaitsev and his contract, or taking a 1 year gamble on Faulk to play at least as well as one of Zaitsev/Hainsey in the top 4, I take it.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>The Leafs could have had in the offseason and at the deadline and chose against it. Why would they suddenly do it?</div></div>
I'm not sure if you have a source on this to indicate that the Leafs could have made this same deal last summer or at the TDL this year, but Faulk last year was not the same player he has been this year. His value was at an all-time low. He's bounced back and has shown he can be more - a better defender and good puck mover. As for the TDL, moving out Kapanen and Brown at the TDL this year for Faulk wouldn't have made sense. The Leafs can use those 2 forwards this year and adding Faulk at the deadline to (at the time) Reilly, Gardiner, Muzzin, Dermott, Hainsey and Zaitsev would only mean that Zaisev would be a 4.5M scratch replaced by Faulk at the expense of Brown and Kapanen. Not to mention that at the TDL Carolina decided to stand pat and keep Ferlund to try and make the playoffs, doubtful they would start trading away roster players. Making this trade in the off season when we will likely need to choose between signing Kapanen (whom we have Bracco to replace at 3RW) or Johnsson (who we don't have a top 9 replacement replacement for) simply makes more sense.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>As for Adam Fox, it is a complicated situation, but I would agree with <a href="/users/palhal" target="_blank">@palhal</a> that unless the Leafs are getting a signed, sealed and delivered Adam Fox, this deal is a complete non-starter. Besides, why lose Kapanen when the Leafs could sign him for free after next season? </div></div>
Yes, it should only be done if Fox agress to sign in Toronto. However, the cap situation means that signing both Kapanen and Johnsson is not possible unless Marleau retires and agrees to be traded to a cap floor team before announcing (unlikely) or they trade away Zaitsev's contract with a large sweetener and replace him with a rookie D like Lilgeren or worse Holl. I think exchanging an asset like Kapanen from a position of strength for 2 players at a position of weakness makes more sense.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 26, 2018 at 4:50 p.m.
Thread: Nylander deal options - 8 7 6 5 and 3 years
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>I really hate to break this to you, but you did all that work for nothing. Here’s how you calculate cap hit. Take the total amount of money he makes, divide it by the number of years. Done. Bonuses don’t matter, salary per year doesn’t matter, the cap hit doesn’t fluctuate at all. Average annual value = cap hit. For this year, if he signs, tack on 30k per day after the season started until the day he signed, which is a rule that avoids teams having a cap savings because of a player sitting out.


Sorry</div></div>

No need to be sorry, the numbers are salary not cap in my post. The cap is static at 6.824M in years 2-8. In the first year of the deal because of the late signing the cap it much higher if you load up year 1. This is a well publicized cap loophole. See here: <a href="https://www.tsn.ca/mckenzie-signing-bonus-would-diminish-leafs-cap-advantage-on-nylander-contract-1.1209609" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.tsn.ca/mckenzie-signing-bonus-would-diminish-leafs-cap-advantage-on-nylander-contract-1.1209609</a>
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 19, 2018 at 3:15 p.m.
Thread: So many Nylander possibilities in one place
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Lenny7</b></div><div>You really cherry picked the points on your "dealing from strength/weakness" list.

-New owner in Carolina. I'm sure making the playoffs would be great, but one would have to assume that he has no intention of overpaying to get a player.
-Sure they can score in bunches right now. Nobody has any doubt that the Leafs can score. Heck, they've even kept the puck out of their own net really well this year. The big question you should ask yourself though: "Am I comfortable with my D core when we hit the playoffs?" or, better yet, "Am I comfortable with the D that I have when it's the 3rd period of game 7 against Boston?".
-Carolina needs a center. They NEED a center. If I'm throwing a d-man out the door, I'm making sure it's for an impact player that plays up the middle.

You say Toronto doesn't NEED to trade Nylander, and you're spot on. But you're forgetting that the Canes also don't NEED to trade any of Pesce, Slavin, Hamilton or Faulk. And if they chose to move any of those guys, there'd be 25+ teams lined up to deal with them. Heck, one of them might even give them a guy that already signed.</div></div>


I wouldn't say I cherry picked those strengths/weaknesses, though you're welcome to expand the list or come up with your own.
Some of what you have listed here can also be turned around:
- New owner who promised results and a commitment to the team, rich dudes hate being embarrassed while losing money
- Leafs D has looked far better than past years to this point, even Gardiner isn't giving me panic attacks every game. Is it the ideal D, no. Is it something I sweat at playoff time? Not really, especially with Rielly's emergence and Dermott's growth. I'm more concerned with their lack of physical push back as a team than their D come playoff time.
- Not exactly a line up of teams offering high end young centers at this point of the season, that's more of a draft deal sort of play usually (if any are available)

And again, the point of this is that *IF* Carolina wants to trade Nylander, which of these options makes the most sense for them. I didn't say they needed him, it is if they think they need him and want to pull the trigger.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 19, 2018 at 3:00 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 15, 2018 at 4:34 p.m.
Thread: How to fix the Marleau situation next year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jah1722</b></div><div>I did and agm for ARZ at 82.5M salary cap, signed all of their RFAs to contracts between 1.2-1.4M Perlini to 3M and Panik is playing top 6 min so I gave him 3M and that leaves 8.5Mish in cap space. If you don’t think they re-sign Panik then adding a top 6 fwd will cost at least 5M so that brings it down to 6.5Mish left. Not enough to take the Marleau contract.

ARZ is going to want to make a serious run at the playoffs the next couple seasons with the way they’re set up. The young talent will no longer be “prospects” for lack of a better term. They’re in it this season. Next year will be a big year in becoming true contenders and I don’t see how taking 6.25M in dead cap space helps them.

As for comparing the trade to the Orpik trade, COL wanted Grubuaer so WSH made them take Orpik. This trade ARZ doesn’t want anything, TOR does. TOR wants cap space.</div></div>

You and I have very different views on how ARZ operates so I don't think we'll find common ground. But the team I linked includes the 6.25M from Marleau as a 35+ buyout and there is ample cap for a team that isn't going to compete seriously for at least a season or two and doesn't have the cash to spend. And every team wants 2nd round draft picks, especially when they are essentially free.