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TMarch

Member Since
Apr. 3, 2017
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Detroit Red Wings
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Vegas Golden Knights
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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 8, 2023 at 3:10 p.m.
Thread: Debrincat to Detroit
The problem with Debrincat is you have to spend a couple of top picks, then you have to pay him $8m+ long term (or $9m+ for 1 year). I have a hard time seeing Stevie doing that, unless he think Debrincat puts them over the top (which I don't think he does, still a lot of holes). Steve could wait 1 year and not pay any draft pick to get him, when DET is closer to competing.

In the end, I think OTT doesn't get anywhere near market value for him (similar to the Dubois issue, he wants to go to MTL, no one is going to pay top picks for Dubois, and MTL has WPG caught because no one wants to pay for 1 year). The other options are OTT signs him for $9m/1 year, and trade him at the deadline, or (least likely), they don't qualify him, making him a free agent. Option 3 won't happen, because OTT would just take the best deal they can find. OTT has new ownership coming in, which will affect what they pay (which is why Option 3 is on the list).
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 2, 2023 at 4:24 p.m.
Thread: Coach Bombay
Way too much for Keller. I can't see anyone trading a top 10 pick for him. #17 for sure, plus a 2nd and a B- prospect. Top 10 picks in this draft are gold, as the top quality guys (i.e. guys that are as good as Keller, but 18 years old) run til about pick 10 or 11.

Also, if you are taking Myer's contract from VAN, you aren't giving them a 2nd round pick. I can see the swap of picks (17 for 11) to take Myers contract, but he isn't worth the extra pick.

Like the Durzi trade though. Value is about right. Would even give up the earliest 2nd for him. Good contract, controllable, RHD, good metrics. LAK needs to make room for Clarke and Bjornfot. If you are going to get Durzi though, you don't need Myers, you'd shift Chariot to RD, and play him with Johansson until Edvinsson comes back in December.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 23, 2023 at 4:50 p.m.
Thread: A brash and irresponsible Red Wings Offseason
I doubt DET moves on from Zadina this year. He's not keeping anyone off the roster, and a 5th rounder isn't worth it. You'd rather keep him than move him for that.

I can't see Severson getting $7.5m to play #4dman minutes (which is where he's succeeded in NJD). He might get $6m because he's a RHD, but his success has only gone up since his minutes were reduced (almost 4 full minutes less per game this year than previous years and 2nd pairing PP minutes). If he wasn't a RHD, he wouldn't be getting as much attention. DET would be better off trading for Durzi, more cost control and better success (younger too).

No way Killorn gets 4 years from anyone, not with all that mileage. The money is right, but it'll be 2 years at best. Domi's success has been in the middle 6, which means he won't get $6m/year. Probably more like 4.5mx4. Not sure how he makes this team better though.

All in all, a lot of bad signings, a screwed up cap in 2024-2025, and still no playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 22, 2023 at 5:04 p.m.
Thread: Trying Again
So, I can't see DET making a trade for both Addison and Durzi, I think it'll be 1 or the other. There is no room for Edvinsson in this lineup, because unless his play falls way off the cliff Chiarot isn't going anywhere (except maybe to the RHD spot, as he can play both sides). Durzi is more well rounded, while Addison will probably be more of a 3rd pair/PP guy.

For the move up, I can't see SJS making that move, and I wouldn't take Michkov at 3. The risks are extremely real (not as a player, but due to the situation). It wouldn't shock me to see Michkov available at 13-15 due to the risks. If Michkov is available in the mid 1st, I'd trade 17 plus one of the 2nds to get him there. I think the value is close on your move up trade, I just think it would be targeting Smith, Carlsson, et al.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 22, 2023 at 4:50 p.m.
Thread: How far off are these trades
In my mind, Keller is somewhat of a risk. He's a good player for sure, but, his last 2 years shooting percentages have been 15.8 and 16.6%, which is pretty unsustainable. ARI would be selling him as an 80+ point player, but regressing back to the norm he's a 60-64 point player, and that's what you should be judging the trade on. Maybe he's popped a la Kevin Fiala, or maybe this is his peak. Would he still get 20 minutes/night in DET like he did in ARI (probably)? He doesn't have many comparables to reference off of either, because his top years came with wild underlying numbers. I'm not sure I'd give up more than 2023 17OA and one of the 2nds (and maybe some late round fodder). Definitely not Berggren, Kubalik, or another 2nd rounder. Steve won't give up the BOS 2024 because there is a chance it's a lottery pick.

As for Girard, I just don't think he fits the model of a DET defenseman, at least the way that Steve has been building this out. Then tack on that he's a lefty, at best he's playing 3rd line minutes once Edvinsson comes back.