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Talos213

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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 16, 2020 at 11:33 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 19, 2019 at 8:15 a.m.
Thread: Legitimate Hall trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>Yeah, maybe when you get a bigger pot of cusp NHLers (to a degree, at least) there is more of a percentage 1 of 3 breaks through, plus the picks working out, then say, 1 of 1 prospects, plus maybe a higher pick (or non-conditional?) - Always risk involved. I think Schnarr could be a pretty decent #3 center, maybe #2? He showed some knack for net front presence playing for Guelph. He might be more suited to a power forward wing role at the NHL level. Bahl, hard to say. He could become that shut down guy plus top PK. Those guys still have pretty good value. Anyway, I think the Devils made out okay. Not sure there was going to ever be a better offer on the table for a rental, unless the Oilers (or some other team) really got tremendously desperate.</div></div>

We're looking at it from different lenses which is fine. My take is quality over quantity. Yes if you get 3 players there's a higher chance 1 breaks through. But those bottom of the lineup types are a dime a dozen. They desperately need top level talent. For example I love how Ottawa got Brannstrom for Stone. He's got a really high ceiling. These guys don't have that
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2019 at 2:59 p.m.
Thread: Legitimate Hall trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>I think the Devils out pretty well. I really liked Nate Schnarr when I saw him in the OHL. Skates fairly well for a kid that's 6'3, good shot, decent hands. Reminds me a lot of Lawson Crouse, but less of the rough and tumble game. Kevin Bahl is also a solid pick up. None of these prospects, or Merkley, are going to be franchise-altering BUT, I could see each of these players making an impact on an NHL roster someday soon. The first round pick is obviously a gem to what will be quite a deep 1st round round draft this summer.</div></div>

Here's how I read the trade
-Bahl - potential 4/5 defender that's main calling card is being big. Minimal offensive upside. Sounds like he's mobile enough but he's not going to be a PP guy
-Schnarr - bottom 6 center with minimal offensive upside
-Merkley - the way he plays the game he has to be on a scoring line. He's boom or bust with boom being a middle 6 winger.
-1st rounder - maybe in the 23-25 range? yes it's a deep draft but the Devils scouting lately has been a little questionable and the player taken here is 3-4 years away
-conditional - another lottery ticket that won't be cashed in until next year. I'd guess it's a 2nd but another player that's a long ways away from making an impact if he does at all

Contrast all that with the Devils being perpetually rebuilding and it's not a good look. I think they would have been better targeting a developed prospect or more picks in this draft than fixating on getting a 1st. Kinda seems like they wanted quantity over quality
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2019 at 12:40 p.m.
Thread: Legitimate Hall trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockeyguy77</b></div><div>Hall has 22 points in 27 games on a team that is horrible right now. He would do way better on any playoff team. Since when is 22 points in 27 games bad anyway? It is turning into a bidding game and if you think the highest bidder won't be offering a 1st round pick you are incredibly incompetent.</div></div>

I'm incompetent because I can look at past deals rather than just jump to a conclusion? Nice to see you have to result to insults to try and make a point. Get over yourself

22 in 27 points is not a point per game which is usually considered (perhaps arbitrarily) as a cutoff for elite talent. As stated above, Hall is ranked 403 out of 460 forwards in the league for Goals above replacement. Saying he'd do better on a better team is completely losing sight of things. If Hall is such an elite player than he should be able to produce like one in all situations rather than looking like a sub replacement level forward who's getting their points based on ice time and favorable deployment.

Also, Corey Masisak The Athletic looked at 5 in season trades (Stone, Duchene, Staal, Gaborik and Kovalchuk) to come up with a realistic return for Hall. Duchene and Kovalchuk were the only two that included 1st round picks. I tend to value centers (especially a 1/1A like Duchene) over wingers and the Kovalchuk trade was almost 10 years ago. Stone and Gaborik were both top tier wingers moved in deals that did not include 1st round picks.

So just to clarify, I'm "incredibly incompetent" for paying attention to past deals and coming up with a projection of what I think is likely rather than just spouting out crap about a 1st round pick being the only way a trade gets done? It's also pretty clear you don't know anything about pick value, they drop off immensely after the top 20. Arguing for a high 20 first instead of a mid 40-50 and a good prospect is a gross misuse of assets
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2019 at 11:41 a.m.
Thread: Legitimate Hall trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Barbs</b></div><div>Ok let me rephrase. Dorion fumbled that trade, I have more faith in Shero not doing the same. Inquiring teams may try to use the Stone trade as precedent but Shero will certainly get a better offer than anything posted above. Teams will be trying to outbid each other for Hall's services. Dorion was trying to pull off 3 big trades in one weekend and was left settling with Stone, Shero doesn't have that problem.</div></div>

The team trading the best player loses the deal 99% of the time. Especially at the trade deadline. I see these deals as realistic, teams don't want to trade their 1sts or top prospects for rentals. If you want to argue over conditional picks here and there sure, go for it. But it certainly isn't going to be Byram and a 1st coming back from COL or Drouin+ from MTL
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2019 at 11:24 a.m.
Thread: Legitimate Hall trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Barbs</b></div><div>The Stone model isn't something NJ should be striving towards. Considering Stone immediately signed an 8 year extension with Vegas, the Sens got hosed on that transaction. It was also a year where the market was crowded (part of that was because of Ottawa having 3 big pending UFAs holding everything up). This year it's not looking nearly as competitive, teams will be bidding high for the Hart trophy winner from 2 years ago. You could make the argument that Stone is better than Hall but Hall is without a question one of the best wingers in hockey.</div></div>

As I've stated a few times. Yes the Sens got hosed. But if you're a GM trading for Hall you don't use that comparison?

Stone is younger, better, healthier, signed a deal right away and was having a better season when he was traded.

Also, while you can argue he's playing on a team as a whole that's struggling, Hall's GAR for the season is -1.5 placing him in a tie for 403 out of 460 forwards for the year

*EDIT* Stat is from Evolving Hockey
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2019 at 10:46 a.m.
Thread: Legitimate Hall trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MG1986</b></div><div>If Phil Kessel can help this group get better, then there is no doubt that Taylor Hall can do that, and more. The only question that remains is his continuous health, but I think in a warmer climate, with less eyes on him every steps that he takes, would certainly help. Would Arizona pony up some goods to acquire a pure rental? Hard to say. But I think this group is tired of losing and missing playoffs. With a new owner in the fold, I think you will see them pursue some top tier rentals, and go hard this offseason for top tier UFAs.</div></div>

Yeah and I don't think they'd be too worried about retaining him if they can make the playoffs this year. I think you're definitely on to something with this