TheCelt

Math and Sports
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Mechanical Engineering, Mathematics, and Economics student, and student-athlete
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9 at 10:13
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>They should not be trying to win the cup in 2020 as they won't be contenders, any attempt to do so isn't gonna work out and will cause more long term pain then anything else. They should use this offseason and next season to retool the roster to be a long term contender.
Now if they can find a trade partner for any of Kulikov or Perreault that doesn't want to be paid premium assets to take them then make the trade but otherwise best to just ride out their contracts and be done with it, this team has traded far too many assets for rentals and cap space in the last two seasons so trading more to dump 1 and 2 year contracts would be really really bad.
If they could trade Buff (and even Wheeler)and recoup some of the pieces lost in the last two seasons that'd be ideal but they most likely won't.
I most definitely agree about Tanev, if he's still a Jet next season prepare yourself for a while(while as in multiple seasons) of the Jets sucking with no cup or much cap space to improve with. Also if Tanev is a Jet you can also expect the "right guys" you want to be given an opportunity to be rotting on the 4th line with 5-7 minutes of ice time or sitting in the press box.</div></div>

I am 100% on board with 86ing Wheels. I was a very vocal minority that hated the extension when he signed it. Otherwise I think we're in agreement about most of the other stuff.

I just wouldn't trade Buff, because his value to cost ratio is still very high. There are much worse contracts to get rid of.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9 at 10:07
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9 at 1:37
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>Idk man I think it'd be an improvement and definitely improves the defense in the long run, if they hold on to Buff they're definitely not gonna get someone like Gostisbehere for him.
That trade would free up a ton of cap space too.</div></div>

Buff is one of the top 10 defenseman in the NHL in terms of suppressing shots against, controlling play in terms of corsi, and doing it on a team that had trouble with that last year. Add on that he is elite at special teams (this is an overrated stat in a lot of cases, but when you're as good as Buff it does count for something). He'll probably decline a little next year because age tends to do that, but he will still be very valuable.

If we were rebuilding or reloading and not trying to win a cup in 2020, these two trades would make a lot of sense. But in this scenario, we have 3 new members of our top4, and only one of them is an upgrade on the player that used to play there. (Ghost is a massive upgrade on Chiarot, but that's still 1/3.)

There have been a lot of Trouba for Ghost trades going around. I'd be alright with any of those. I'd even be alright with not sending them Perreault if PHI views MP85 as negative value, and/or giving up a pick or prospect not named Vesalainen, or Samberg, to smooth out the deal.

As far as cap goes, the Jets aren't in trouble as long as they dump the right guys and give some opportunities to the right guys. 85 and 5 need to be gone, Trouba probably gets moved as well, and we can't be making any stupid UFA signings *cough*Tanev*cough*. And Poolman needs to get a shot. The guy was dominant in the AHL, has done decently in NHL action he's gotten and is the cheapest player on the roster right now, and isn't due any bonuses.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 2 at 10:02
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GhostBear</b></div><div>It's actually laughable thinking the NCAA is leaps and bounds above Juniors. I get it, guys are bigger and stronger in the NCAA, but they also have 1/3 of the talent compared to the guys your defending in Juniors. Trouba just finished his 6th season in the NHL and he finally surpassed 33 points, his previous career high. Is 50 points his new norm? Maybe, but its certainly a great time for the Jets to try and capitalize on the most value he has ever had. Selling high is smart by them. Buying high would not be smart for the Flyers. Will Myers put up the offensive numbers Trouba did this year? Maybe not, but his ceiling is to be just as good, if not better, defensively. Brossoit has no value in this trade since the Flyers want to sign a veteran backup, Brossoit has only played in 49 games. And to top it off, you dump Kulikov on them without any other type of compensation.</div></div>

Doesn't matter. Age trumps talent when talent is comparable for amateur players. It's the same reason press box plugs like Brendan Lemieux and Nic Petan can have ridiculous offensive numbers, and do absolutely nothing in the NHL. Being a dominant amateur against amateurs your own age doesn't mean a lot. The best CHL players can be identified because they are the best players in a U20 league at 17 and 18, or in some cases, being allowed to enter the league a year early with exceptional status.

On the flip side of the NCAA, it's why NCAA free agents are usually solid but underwhelming players. Being a 23 year old and lighting up 18 year olds is pretty meh.

Thinking the CHL can compete with the NCAA is asinine. It is the same line of thinking that a top American high school football or basketball team could compete with a CIS team. No they wouldn't.

Myers has Trouba's ceiling in the sense that he could play top pairing minutes one day but if you're charting him against Trouba he has catching up to do. At this point in time Trouba was coming off his 2nd full NHL season and had 2 years of being a top 4 defenseman under his belt. It's not impossible for Myers to catch him, but not likely.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 1 at 7:44
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mk458</b></div><div>I could understand not wanting to do this trade. But lets be realistic here, Myers does not have Trouba's upside. Myers is 22, by age 21 Trouba was already playing top 4 minutes and situations. He put up 29 points in 65 games in the NHL in his rookie season. He was a top 10 draft pick who put up dominant numbers in the NCAA before bursting into the league. Myers has potential to be a top 4 dman, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. One great season in the AHL (his 2nd season), doesn't give him Trouba's upside. I think you've got a bit of a bias as a Flyers fan. I mean no disrespect, I think Myers will be a good dman. But Trouba just put up 50 points</div></div>


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangles</b></div><div>Take a look at what Myers did in juniors. He dominated. He was also paired with Thomas Chabot in the World Juniors. He may be slower to bloom than Trouba but Myers does have his upside. You don’t compare upside by what someone did at the same age.</div></div>

I'm gonna go ahead and second pretty much everything mk just said.

Firstly, Junior is not evenly comparable to the NCAA. The difference between a dominant defender against older amateur players and being a dominant defender against guys your own age is night and day. The difficulty scale done by behindthenet has junior a shade under 75% of the difficulty of NCAA. Not even counting that the BIG10 is actually a decent conference. Otherwise the numbers would look even more favorably on Trouba. Behindthenet is a pretty logical site, so when they make predictions and approximations, it's fairly reliable.

Secondly, that is absolutely how you compare upside. Athletes reach their athletic prime at about 25-30 and they do the majority of their growth up until that point with the last couple stages of development being very slow. That means the majority of their growth happens 19-23. The fact that Trouba was that far ahead of him is pretty indicative of how the two will compare. There are definitely exceptions to the rule, but the Blake Wheelers and Jamie Benn of the world are the exception and not the rule.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr 26 at 12:17
Thread: WPG FLA
Forum: Armchair-GMApr 24 at 9:45