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TheCelt
Math and Sports
Member Since
May 25, 2018
Favourite Team
Winnipeg Jets
Forum Posts
650
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 23, 2019 at 10:05 p.m.
Thread:
Montreal can help Winnipeg
Hard no. The Jets can give up dump Kulikov, Perreault, and more likely than not, Trouba. That frees up about 13M in cap.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 21, 2019 at 4:24 p.m.
Thread:
Troubas days are numbered
A big yes from Winnipeg. (I like Olli more than most NHL fans)
Forum:
NHL Trades
Apr. 21, 2019 at 4:22 p.m.
Thread:
How much for Ehlers from Canes
Well seeing as Ehlers is 22y/o is signed to a team friendly deal and is better at handling the puck than either Connor or Laine... a lot. Connor is probably less untouchable than Ehlers given that Connor isn't signed, and that is still going to cost a f*cktonne.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 21, 2019 at 3:43 p.m.
Thread:
Sensible Laine trade if MTL is serious
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Billy739</b></div><div>you're not giving up if Laine Leaves on Offersheets and WPG cant give Laine the term and cap MTL can that's just common sense . . . .
any and i mean any WPG fan who gets the Business side of Hockey knows anything over 9.5m and there is slim chances WPG matches as they are cash strapped and would need to move a Byfluglien or Schiefle to re-sign Laine
we dont have this problem at all in any form which is why i can say 100% no chance he leaves even in KK wanted to leave on offer sheet's we'd match because we can.</div></div>
If you are hoping GMMB puts in an offer sheet for Laine then have at it.
Offersheets were designed to punish teams for poaching RFA's in this exact situation. Thinking you will offer sheet any big name RFA's (Point, Marner, Laine) this offseason is just naive. The result is getting an albatross contract in return for your longterm future.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 21, 2019 at 1:47 p.m.
Thread:
Sensible Laine trade if MTL is serious
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Billy739</b></div><div>hahahahahahahahahahaha
i think you go the definition of Sensible confused with Daft .
0% Chance MTL gives up their only #1 Center prospect since Koivu for anyone given Koivu was our last #1 C (it took us this long to get KK)</div></div>
Same chance Winnipeg gives up their best scoring talent since Selanne.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 21, 2019 at 10:34 a.m.
Thread:
Sensible Laine trade if MTL is serious
A sensible Laine trade starts with KK.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 20, 2019 at 12:50 p.m.
Thread:
Pettiness at its finest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BiscuitBakesandHotTaeks</b></div><div>See here’s the thing. MP used to be an analytic powerhouse but he took a pretty significant step back in most offensive xG stats (evolving-wild) and stayed about the same in d xG. Now that he is on the other side of 30 and 2 years left at 4M? Yeah I’ll take 1 year of Conor Sheary over that.</div></div>
I'm going by the last two years. You can slump one year and make a comeback. It happens all the time. You count 2017-2019, Perrault has a relCF% of 5.09 and a relxGF% of 0.19 per naturalstattrick. So the average of his usual form and a slump season for Perreault is still heads above the average NHL player.
I'm vaguely familiar with evolving wild's work, and I got to say their derivation for xGF% seems to be sketchy as hell. These are the guys that said Connor McDavid was one of he worst defensive players in the NHL.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 20, 2019 at 11:44 a.m.
Thread:
Pettiness at its finest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BiscuitBakesandHotTaeks</b></div><div>He kind of is. Offensive production isn’t there to justify 4M per year. That being said he could be useful. Throw a 2nd and a later pick (5+) back BUF way and I would say deal</div></div>
Offensive production is only one ingredient of what makes a good hockey player. As long as you're scoring more than you're conceding on the ice, and have the mathematical backing to show that it's very likely not 'luck', and the math predicts a rate similar of goal differential similar to other 4million dollar players, Perreault is worthwhile. Hockey is just a series of battles over the course of an hour of game time, and the data says Perreault has consistently been a dominant player in the NHL at winning those battles. The only knock against Perreault is his frame is not ideal.
If Botterill saw Perreault as negative value than the easy fix is to take Perrault out of the trade. Someone will be willing to pay a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick for him somewhere. I just would not do that if I were Buffalo.
On the flip side if this is because Buffalo is against the cap (I don't really follow Buffalo), the Jets could always take someone like Sheary but that would probably up the price minimally since Sheary really does have pretty much zero to negative value.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 19, 2019 at 8:42 p.m.
Thread:
Pettiness at its finest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>arafay</b></div><div>
Honestly I like having discussions with you. You lay everything out unlike others who just state something that leaves you wondering</div></div>
Agreed, friendo
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 18, 2019 at 2:55 p.m.
Thread:
Pettiness at its finest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>arafay</b></div><div>I like the idea of bringing Armia back but not for the price of a 2nd. just bring Tanev back.
Also Comrie is not Waiver exempt next year so either him or Brossiot are traded (I kept comrie because he has more upside)
I also do not think Brossiot will regress (unless traded to a defensively porous team). If anything he might even get better. He is growing a style that will do him well.</div></div>
I think anytime you go from being a top 10 goalie in per game stats for the majority of the season straight out of the blue, you should expect regression. That's not a knock on Brossoit, that's just the trend that most goalies that aren't franchise talents have shown.
As for Tanev, he is good with Lowry in the bottom 6, but it ties Lowry down to a 4th line shutdown centre. Last year Lowry was 6th on the team in scoring per ice time. Think about all the offense the Jets had on that team and Lowry was outproducing most of everyone. Now he regressed this year, but I'm at least intrigued to see what Lowry could do with some skilled line-mates. Producing on a level, similar to Little, isn't terribly unrealistic. Armia, Copp, Appleton, Roslovic, and Little have all shown that they are flexible through the lineup and can play with different linemates and not drop off too much. (Except for Laine and Little.) Getting rid of Tanev makes the bottom six much, much more flexible and an extra .5K for Armia is completely worth it imo.
I am pretty ambivalent about trading a 2nd for Army. As of this moment we have one of the youngest rosters in the NHL. We have a stud defensive prospect in Samberg who is allegedly signing with us this summer, and the 1st round pick from the Sharks to pick up a RHD or another center. The only thing I'd actually use the 2nd for if we didn't use to get a player like Armia, is to trade up higher in the draft if possible.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 17, 2019 at 10:44 p.m.
Thread:
Pettiness at its finest
Just putting my spin on <a href="/users/arafay" target="_blank">@arafay</a> 's idea.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 17, 2019 at 10:38 p.m.
Thread:
Panarin Winnipeg Nashville Ottawa Toronto
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>nfc</b></div><div>Cap reasons, re-signing Trouba and Laine.</div></div>
Ok so when you're in cap trouble you 86 the bad contracts. Byfuglien is a top 15 defender in the NHL according to CA/60 among defenseman, P/60, and absolutely shreds the Jets in CFrel and xGFrel and he makes less than 8mill AAV.
Kulikov, Perreault are both getting moved before anyone important to the Jets' success. In the darkest timeline where that doesn't work, literally anyone not named Morrissey, Scheifele, Wheeler, Connor, Laine and Hellebuyck is getting moved before Buff. Trouba would get moved before Buff.
Now on the off chance that you have your premise humored the price for Byfuglien would be Karlssonesque. A defenseman who doesn't play defense. A college prospect who has been meh, and a 2nd round pick doesn't cut it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 17, 2019 at 10:27 p.m.
Thread:
Panarin Winnipeg Nashville Ottawa Toronto
Buff? For that? ..... Really?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 17, 2019 at 10:21 p.m.
Thread:
Pettiness at its finest
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BurgerBoss</b></div><div>Why don't just re-sign Brossoit. He's been pretty good.</div></div>
He has, but his sample size has also been pretty small, and he was not good in Edmonton (but it's Edmonton). Considering how good he's been in that small sample size, and that he's probably going to regress his trade value is probably better than his actual value. I'm a big believer in always selling high.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 17, 2019 at 9:53 p.m.
Thread:
Next year
I can get on board with paying Copp but I'd love to see a 2 year contract for Seattle draft reasons. I do not love the idea of paying Tanev that considering he's a liability with anyone not named Lowry. You have 3.8mill tied up in the worst three forwards in this roster. I would rather have Matt Hendricks for league minimum, Marko Dano, Par Lindholm or Shaw for just above league minimum, and then take your savings and Tanev's money which should come out to 2.5ish Mill and go out and get a Michael Ferland, Derick Brassard, or even offer sheet Armia for the lols.
Paying Chiarot kinda scares me since it essentially makes him a super cheap 2nd pairing dman or an uber expensive 3rd pairing man, and since he's played like a 2nd pairing dman when he's with Buff, that kinda leans me toward the lesser of those outcomes. It would also make sense if he was young, but he isn't.
Trades look good!
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 16, 2019 at 2:02 a.m.
Thread:
Just Lou It Part IV - Atkins Edition
Yeah Winnipeg turns that deal down quick.
Tampa isn't bad, but the Edmonton and Winnipeg deals are terrible.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 15, 2019 at 1:13 p.m.
Thread:
Risto for Trouba and other signings
Interesting. I think Chevy would give that some hard consideration.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 29, 2019 at 11:12 p.m.
Thread:
Could this team of prospects beat an NHL team
Nah. That's like people saying Alabama could beat the 2016 Cleveland Browns. No guarantee any of these prospects actually become regular NHLers till they play consistently in the NHL.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 27, 2019 at 9:33 p.m.
Thread:
top 6 wingers WPG TOR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonesryan</b></div><div>I wouldn't bank on having Trouba or Myers coming back. Good chance their both gone this summer and if not, next summer. At least Larsson gives them a RHD with some term.</div></div>
One of them will absolutely be back. Priority should be to sign Myers, so that Trouba can be traded, but in the absolute worst-case scenario, where Myers wants too much money, and Trouba won't sign long term, Trouba just signs a 1 year deal, and we sort this mess out next year. Acquiring Larsson, implies that the Jets have a Trouba for a 2C trade lined up, which they don't.
There is the possibility that a guy like Larsson ends up on the Jets but that would involve trading them Trouba... Or a 3 way trade with another team. And no-one's got the time to try and wrap their heads around that one.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 27, 2019 at 9:30 p.m.
Thread:
top 6 wingers WPG TOR
Winnipeg declines. You have the Jets add a RHD to a team that has Buff, and one of Trouba/Myers, and a bad gamble with draft hype that is likely getting overvalued in his bridge contract this summer. In return Winnipeg gives up Bryan Little (who would never waive his NMC for Edmonton), and Sami Niku, who can reliably fill a spot on a cap strapped team next year for about 1mill in cap hit and bonuses.
This trade right here is predicated on a Trouba trade that brings back a 2C on a sub 6-mill contract. There are way too many moving parts for that scenario to ever happen.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26, 2019 at 10:58 p.m.
Thread:
Oilers 2019-2020
Toronto deal gets done, but I doubt those other two do. Not likely that NJD trades a decent young forward for a super-duper injury prone and aging middle pairing dman on a terrible contract. Also not in Edmonton's best interests to trade their 1st round pick for a rental.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26, 2019 at 10:50 p.m.
Thread:
If Edmonton wants to complete
So for half a mill in savings they can trade a decent and versatile 2nd line player for a worse and less versatile one?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26, 2019 at 10:37 p.m.
Thread:
Worst Defensive players this year
I would be interested in seeing the derivation for this. Ryan Johansen on a worst defensive list when he is the 1C for a very good defensive team seems pretty janky.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26, 2019 at 10:18 p.m.
Thread:
Worst Defensive players this year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Oilfan1717</b></div><div>Show me some evidence that McDavid is bad defensively.</div></div>
<a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=oi&rate=y&team=EDM&pos=S&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single</a>
McDavid is top 5 on the team in SCA/60, HDCA/60, SA/60 and the guys who beat him are guys Manning, Wideman, Petrovic, Gagner etc.
Never seen EvolvingWilds model, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at McDavid's numbers and figure out his style doesn't lend itself to a defensive game.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 26, 2019 at 10:14 p.m.
Thread:
Best team under cap no RFAs extensions factored in
Yep, so does Sorenson, and like I wrote in the description, there is enough cap space that there would be -594000 cap space. Unfortunately the site won't let me edit this team, but it's a pretty quick fix to take Poolman and Gudas and sub in a cheaper healthy scratches and bottom pairing dmen.
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