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TheEarthmaster

Good Opinion Haver
Member Since
Jun. 7, 2018
Favourite Team
St. Louis Blues
Forum Posts
1354
Posts per Day
1.06
Forum Threads
15
Forum: Armchair-GM6 hours ago
Thread: Claude
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ZachHymanForTheHart</b></div><div>Kerfoot has 16 points, all at 5v5.
0.66 PPG.
He fits in more than fine.

You also traded our 1B, defensive depth, and offensive depth and two top draft picks just to give a slight upgrade to the bottom 6.

Not a smart move(s)</div></div>

Kerfoot is scoring at nearly double his expected goals rate right now. Good production while you can get it, but I might not bet on it going forward, because that's bound to regress eventually. (Not saying Giroux is necessarily the solution but if you're insulating your roster it's a decent idea to invest in some top-six insurance).

Definitely could use defensive help too but what else is new. Could be solved by just playing Sandin more, he's been really good. It's a lot tougher (and more expensive) to find a top four RHD, something I'm sure is unsurprising
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16 at 5:46 p.m.
Thread: Lets Hope Scott Works Out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>I criticize the players plenty. I've criticized Parayko (who has been worse than Scandella by a long way the last few games) a ton this week. I even criticized RobTom this week. and he's put up 7a in the last three games. What I don't do is join in on catterwauling bash parties that ignore when the annual scapegoat pick isn't at fault or remove all positive context to make a player out like worthless trash or pretend like that things a player does very well aren't really that important because that would spoil my slanted narrative.</div></div>

I'm not blaming it all on Scandella, we just had a big discussion about Barbashev where I also criticized Thomas and Tarasenko's performance, and also I was banging this Scandella drum long before this year, so is it a slanted narrative if I said he would be bad and then he is indeed bad? And if that is indeed a slanted narrative, why would I defend him when he had a good start to the season a few weeks back, including where I said he was performing well offensively? How does that fit into your narrative that I'm just scapgoating this guy without acknowledging his strengths? Parayko hasn't been good either but he has a track record of being better and he's underperforming his expecteds, unlike Scandella. I'm sorry for not recommending we try and move the guy who is signed for eight more years instead of the guy signed for two I guess? Like do you think Scandella has really been that good?

This is a trade where we are "upgrading" (I don't think much of Chiarot but nominally that is the intention) our defense. If you are trying to do that it makes sense to move Scandella for all the reasons I just said before- not only can we not afford to pay him if we are paying someone else but if he's on the third pair we have better options there.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 16 at 5:29 p.m.
Thread: Lets Hope Scott Works Out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Habs4ever</b></div><div>Is Marco not doing well? I haven’t watched St-Louis once this year.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Uhh no. We are not doing this.




He's had his ups and downs, but he's also become this year's official Blues fan scapegoat bash whether he has a good game or not. In other words, don;t take the bashing too seriously.</div></div>

He definitely has been bad, Mokumboi just can't hear any criticism about Blues players. I'm not saying he's incapable of a good game here and there but am I speaking out of turn to say that you should be expecting more than that from a guy in your top four on a cup contending team? 43% GF% this year, which is right about his xGF% (and right around his expected percentage last year).

He's being tasked with the toughest matchups and he can't handle it. Not all players can. We need someone who can. We can't be paying a guy 3.25mil to play behind whoever that person is and Krug unless that person is Scott Perunovich. Ergo he has to go to make upgrades. That's all!
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 6:58 p.m.
Thread: PIT Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Setting aside that I'm not a fan of RAPM, let's remember that we're talking about nine games (for a guy who historically loves to turn the puck over in the D-zone). And that being the Pens best D-man so far this season is a rather low bar to hurdle. Besides, he just had COVID and now he's injured, too.

As for Barby, let's add some simple context to the xGA/60 business (as opposed to the trickier context of actually assigning blame for the chances given up when he's on the ice). That number doesn't factor in his fantastic PK work, and he's still outperforming those numbers with his GF% (which is obviously the one that actually counts). He's also 2nd on the team in takeaways, 4th on the team in x+/- and 2nd among our forwards in hits (which is quite important, because we ain't the physical team we used to be). In other words, I think you're selling his play well short.</div></div>

So for Pettersson a good performance this season can be dismissed because it's only been 9 games but for Barbashev a good performance this season means he's "in the midst of a breakout season'? Seems like a bit of a double standard from your end. I'll acknowledge that Pettersson is way outperforming his xGF and we can't expect him to keep that up, but he has a proven track record of reducing high danger chances for multiple seasons now and that's the skillset I made his case for as an asset to the Blues. The turnover things is silly and always has been, he's totally fine at that and as I told you before multiple defensemen on our team and the other options people are throwing out there (Lindholm, Kulak, etc) are much worse than he is at that too.

Also you didn't seem to not like RAPM when you were posting Vince Dunn's charts and Alex Pietrangelo's stuff from Evolving Hockey when people would trade for them or sign them out from under the Blues. Their GAR model is heavily predicated on RAPM. So do you just not like it when it doesn't support your previously held opinion or....

I don't think I'm selling Barbashev short at all. I said he had been very very good and I said he was a useful player and that I didn't want to trade him. I even said I wouldn't trade him for Pettersson, a player I've been very supportive of. Especially if he's playing above the fourth line and doing well that's a huge boon for my view of him, because I think it's tough to be devoting nearly six million dollars (with Sundqvist and Clifford) to your fourth line. I was just saying let's temper expectations because he's clearly riding a hot one here. He's been fine on the PK, as always. I flatly disagree with your evaluation of hits because while I understand that there's a physicality to hockey a player who is hitting a lot usually doesn't have the puck a lot and if you're playing up the lineup possession is extremely important. You make a fair point about his GF% but it only counts in so far as evaluating his current performance, not as a predictor of things moving forward. His xGF% is 50% (still fine! But obviously less) and that's what you can expect going forward. But I don't think any of that invalidates what I said- he's been good, but other players who are getting less opportunity at 5v5 have been better and also our team hasn't been good so maybe it would be smart to switch things up.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 14 at 5:40 p.m.
Thread: PIT Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gpmack95</b></div><div>So everyone but Tarasenko Bortuzzo and Scandella are untouchables with you guys?</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Dude, Barby is cheap and he's having a breakout season. Army doesn't trade what's working. And we can't afford this anyway.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div>Barbashev has been one of the best players on the Blues. Marcus Pettersson has been a meh player on the Penguins. Bortuzzo, Scandella, Clifford are most likely the guys that go due to Blues most likely not being interested, but yeah I doubt Barbashev goes anymore. He's been one of the most if not the most affective player in forechecking, defense, PK, and sometimes even on offense.</div></div>

I don't really want to lose Barbashev either because I truly do think he's a useful player, but let's not overstate what he's doing right now (or understate how good Pettersson has been- <a href="https://imgur.com/a/A8rTVms" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">he's been the best defenseman </a>on the Penguins by a long shot this year, if only someone had predicted this!).

Barbashev has been very very good on that line. He- and the rest of that line- are also giving up way more high danger chances than everyone else on the team, more high danger chances than they are creating. Tarasenko, Thomas and Barbashev are 1,2 and 4 on the Blues in xGA/60, so this idea that Barabshev is actually good defensively is a myth. And the idea that this has been working- The Blues have one regulation win in their last six games (against the Sharks), their only other win in that time is a shootout win against the Jets that even the most optimistic Blues fans have to admit Binnington completely stole, and they were outscored by the 2021 LA Kings and the 2021 Anaheim Ducks in that time frame as well. So something isn't working, obviously. I don't believe that every player needs to play a 200 foot game, but at some point you have to start pointing fingers at your worst defensive line, even if its your best offensive line. The fact that Barbashev has currently seen more TOI/G than Buchnevich (I am throwing out the game he got ejected, it's still less), Kyrou and Saad is truly mind boggling.

Not saying we should necessarily give him up for Pettersson (although Pettersson is very good and we should want him even though Mokumboi is right and it would be difficult to afford him) but he hasn't been a world beater like seems to be the popular narrative and if a trade comes along that makes sense he is absolutely expendable even though yes I would prefer not to (and I think BeastMode is right that the Blues will never trade him, for...reasons).
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 12 at 7:02 p.m.
Thread: Buch got his leg going
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Twins1568</b></div><div>Scott Perunovich :o</div></div>

Should do both really.

Perunovich's offensive talents are well documented and this team could desperately use the influx of talent on that end too, but it's tough to say- as a rookie and as someone who most prospect-savvy people have never said is particularly defense adept- how Perunovich's defensive game will translate to the NHL. They need someone who is strong at preventing high danger chances from the opposing team, but also someone who can handle the high workload next to Parayko. I'm not sure Perunovich is ready for that (or the Blues ready to give it to him if he is).

It's well documented in my posting history that the defense I wanted going into this season was:

Pettersson - Parayko
Krug - Faulk
Walman/Mikkola - Perunovich

Let Perunovich play a sort of Vince Dunn-esque floater role where he jumps up in offensive situations and in future years he can play a bigger role in the top four, and give Parayko a partner with size and with talents at preventing scoring chances ala Jay Bouwmeester.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 9 at 1:21 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 8 at 11:32 a.m.
Thread: Still committed to making this work
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>No but it also doesn't mean that St. Louis should be getting the best player in the deal at a considerable discount, especially if the likelihood of an extension is essentially guaranteed and the player going back to Alberta has already requested a trade from the Blues.

Tkachuk for Kyrou, Tarasenko, and a 1st at least makes more sense. I don't know why Calgary is giving up a pick in this case. I don't have much of a horse in this race but the deal as presented is far too in St. Louis' favour.</div></div>

Not sure a player who is currently producing the same as Tkachuk and a first round pick is a "considerable" discount. I'm not defending the trade as currently constructed but Tarasenko is signed for as long as Tkachuk would be there if Calgary does nothing other than qualify him and he's being similarly productive right now. Tarasenko wants out, sure, but again if Calgary is trading Tkachuk then he wants out too. The Blues need to add in that scenario due to Tarasenko's age- a first round pick, maybe a prospect too. That's reasonable.

But they wouldn't give up Thomas or Kyrou as prospects for five years of Ryan O'Reilly, so there's no reason to believe they'll give them up as productive NHLers for a guy they can probably sign in free agency in a year regardless. Calgary needs to set their sights lower on someone like Kostin or Bolduc. Again, look at the Mark Stone trade, which was a very similar scenario to the one the Flames could find themselves in if Tkachuk is only willing to extend with a few teams. They got an A prospect, a second round pick, and a BC prospect for him. Not a lot for one of the best wingers in the game. If push comes to shove, Calgary has no leverage.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 7 at 3:57 p.m.
Thread: Still committed to making this work
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Traptor</b></div><div>Would have to add in kyrou, thomas or perunovich to make calgary even consider this.</div></div>

The Flames shouldn't be considering it all; Tkachuk is a bonfide top line winger with a unique skillset. But it's not exactly their choice. If they're in a position where they are trading him, it's because he's told them he's not signing an extension. And that gives Calgary very little leverage to demand a young player back in a trade, because Tkachuk is a year away from free agency when this contract is up. That puts Calgary on a clock to trade him (because they can't lose him for nothing) and if there's only a handful of teams that he's willing to sign an extension with, that reduces your market as well (see: Mark Stone trade to Vegas).
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 6 at 5:44 p.m.
Thread: Would you do this fans
Koskinen definitely isn't going to be "the solution" going forward but his good performance is exactly why goaltending doesn't need to be a big concern and why the big names aren't always the solution either. Marc-Andre Fleury (very rightly) won the Vezina last year, but he looks cooked this year (and even if you want to blame that on Chicago, the year BEFORE he won the Vezina he was so bad the Knights had to bring in and immediately extend Robin Lehner). Florida extended Sergei Bobrovsky for eight years two years ago and is just this season seeing him come anywhere close to living up to it. On the other hand, Freddie Anderson looked cooked too, but he's putting up unreal numbers in Carolina for comparatively little money. One of the best goalies in the league last year was a 25 year old rookie, and we all saw what happened with Jordan Binnington- making 650k- in 2019.

All of this is to say, goaltending is complete nonsense. There are two guys in the league that you might say are night in and night out great- Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy. If you aren't getting one of those guys or don't have one on your roster, you don't need to be giving up anything approaching a first round pick for a goalie and you shouldn't be paying them anymore than 5 million dollars.

Gibson is an interesting case because he used to be insanely good and he's decently young so you never know, but it's not worth the risk. You can get solid enough goaltending from somewhere else. The Oilers don't need to be allocating too much cap space to goaltending when McDavid and Draisaitl will be outscoring the other team on the regular no matter who is net.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 5 at 6:17 p.m.
Thread: Tkachuk for Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mondo</b></div><div>Tkachuk is the closest thing the Flames have to an untouchable player; I don't think they'd entertain trading him for someone who wants out of St Louis.

Gaudreau would be a more realistic target.</div></div>

If Tkachuk won't sign a long term extension next year, and accepts his 9 million qualifying offer which walks him to UFA, he suddenly becomes a lot less untouchable if you're the flames. A trade won't happen in season, especially not while both teams are doing so well, but a future Tkachuk trade depends much less on what Calgary wants than people might think. Whether he exercises it or not, he's got all the power this offseason to set the table for an exit if he wants to and the Flames cannot afford to lose him for nothing.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 5 at 6:07 p.m.
Thread: Tkachuk for Tarasenko
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Devil1122</b></div><div>The Tkachuk rumors were false

So Flames decline</div></div>

Not sure that that situation says as much about Tkachuk's lack of availability as it might seem. Trading for Eichel would mean the Flames- who are winning, a lot- would be taking a step back this season while he recovers. The flames (or, more accurately, Brad Treliving) can't afford to have that kind of uncertainty after missing the playoffs last year.

So I don't think he (or Tarasenko, for that matter) gets moved in-season but that doesn't mean that Tkachuk won't be available soon. He's got all the leverage going into his next contract negotiation. He's one year from UFA, his qualifying offer is 9 million dollars, and Calgary's situation is a lot of moving parts with Mangiapane, Gaudreau, and Tkachuk all coming for deals. If Tkachuk won't sign an extension, the Flames will need to trade him in order to extend their other top guys if they want to stay competitive. And if they want to stay competitive, they'll need top-line talent back. Tarasenko is that and I'm not sure there's many other teams who can offer a similar talent for Tkachuk.

It'll take more than this from the Blues but I think people should be wary of underestimating Armstrong when he wants somebody. He got Buchnevich, Schenn and O'Reilly for basically nothing over the last four years.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 4 at 10:02 a.m.
Thread: My take on rumor
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>The talent gap is substantial what are you talking about?</div></div>

Idk if you're high on Eichel or low on Tkachuk, and obviously Eichel is more talented and his position also makes him more valuable but the <a href="https://imgur.com/a/03Nc7wS" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">talent gap is not substantial.</a>. Even if you're not fancy stats inclined, Tkachuk's career high in points is 77, Eichel's career high is 82 (both missed games in their seasons). Both playing on not-so-good teams (Calgary looks fine this year but in general through Tkachuk's career). That's not substantial. Calgary would be getting an elite first liner and losing a very very very good first liner. They need to add, but you can't add that much.

Anyway, doesn't matter now.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 3 at 8:52 p.m.
Thread: My take on rumor
I get that Eichel is signed for awhile where Tkachuk might not stay but the talent gap between the two is really not that large, it's just a matter of center versus winger. It can't be straight up- not only is the center position more valuable but Buffalo has the same problem where Tkachuk might just accept his QO next year and then walk- but the Flames have to keep that + from becoming a ++. They're taking a lot of risk not only with Eichel's injury and recovery but also weakening their roster while they're in a playoff spot and look comfortably competitive. And if Tkachuk is in the package, that pretty much outstrips anything Vegas can put together + or no + unless Vegas starts throwing some crazy stuff around.

Also if they're losing Tkachuk, they need to extend Gaudreau right now. Doesn't make a lot of sense to acquire a superstar center only to lose both him and Tkachuk, the two guys who would probably have the most success next to Eichel.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 1 at 1:50 p.m.
Thread: Going all in
Carter Hutton has had a bottom five GSAx in the league for the last three years. Good goalies on bad teams save more than that. The dude has literally admitted to not being able to see. I love him, he played for my team for years. But he's cooked.

I think it's fair enough value but what exactly does this do for Florida? Keller and Chychrun are both really really good, but you're giving up arguably the best goaltending prospect in the world and a high level forward prospect- both cost controlled- along with much of your depth. This is a team that is already top of the league. Seems like an unnecessary movie that barely helps you now (Keller is obviously better than Duclair or whoever you're throwing next to Barkov these days, but I like Weegar more than Chychrun and you'd be cutting his minutes likely) and hurts you in the future when you're trying to sign Huberdeau and accommodate the Barkov extension, as well as try to find a backup goalie as good as Knight for league min (or close enough) and hanging a lot on Bob not turning back into a pumpkin.

Just go trade for Fillip Forsberg or whatever if you really want a top line forward that bad. He'll cost a first and Denisenko maybe. Idk if I would do it considering they don't really seem to need him but that's a heck of a lot cheaper than doing all this.