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TheEarthmaster

Good Opinion Haver
Member Since
Jun 7, 2018
Favourite Team
St. Louis Blues
Forum Posts
1207
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1.05
Forum Threads
14
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 4:59 pm
Thread: Carolina-Tarasenko and Offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_K</b></div><div>Really can't see Armstrong taking Gardiner back even if it allows for a better return. Blues already have about 5 competent LHD and don't want to be anchored to that deal. I also don't know if the Blues would be interested in re-acquiring Bokk, although he is an interesting prospect IMO. I wonder if something like Vlad at 3.75m for Gunler + cond. 1st/2nd (based on VT's GP or pt total, etc) would make any sense. Or I've seen some posters with a Nino/Tarasenko swap that might make some sense to do straight up.</div></div>

If we're trading with Carolina the Nino-Tarasenko swap is my personal preference. Adding one more top six forward wouldn't force Kyrou or Thomas into a top six role they may or may not be ready for, and it's only for one year so we retain flexibility going forward.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 2 at 11:10
Thread: If I was the Blues I would simply sign the best defenseman and center in FA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>1- Fair enough, but that's a terrible return. He could fetch more than that easy.

2- It's certainly not just me who thinks he's important, and all of us have laid out the reasons for this view ad nauseum. And 2.75M is a good chunk of money? That's more than 1M less than the team's average salary.

As for his injuries, the ACL was pure bad luck, could have happened to anyone. I'd also find it very harsh to count incidents where he is cheap-shotted by a lunatic in calling him "injury-prone".

But hey, you obviously don't like him, and that's your right. It's also my right to find that dislike silly.</div></div>

For the record I don't "dislike" him or any player on the Blues, even the ones I rail on. Sundqvist is a solid low event fourth line player, I just think he makes too much money as a fourth line player (average salary is a bit misleading too considering that you would expect the high end players to make a lot more money). I might be being unfair with the injury thing, it just seems like he plays a pretty reckless style and spends a lot of time on the shelf, random ACL injury and Wilson-ness aside.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 2 at 10:09
Thread: If I was the Blues I would simply sign the best defenseman and center in FA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Protecting Blais (who you then say you want to move on from) and giving away Sunny for peanut shells? Bruh.</div></div>

I'm fine with protecting Sundqvist instead of Blais but I made the trade under the assumption that it would happen pre-expansion draft. Also, unless you've got a pretty significant trade in the works at the time of the expansion draft (ala Reaves for a 1st and Sundqvist) it doesn't make a lot of sense to protect a player that you plan to trade, and I wanted to trade Sundqvist so the list is what it is.

The only reason I move on from Blais in the future is because we would have cheaper, potentially better options to slot in on 3LW the following year, depending on how Neighbors or Kostin do. I'd rather have Blais there this year, when he's making 1.5, then next year when he could be making in the twos. Sometimes a player makes sense one year and not the next. That's smart cap management, which is the exact same reason I'm moving on from Sundqvist (whom I know you think is really important for reasons that I don't fully understand) this year for "peanut shells"- he's an oft injured player who is fine but not particularly good at any one thing, makes a good chunk of money, and is the kind of player that stupid teams will think is good because he plays with heart or something.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 1 at 3:11
Thread: If I was the Blues I would simply sign the best defenseman and center in FA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jwg314</b></div><div>I was actually wondering if Tarasenko has a bounce-back year, do we trade him for a nice haul for the final year of his contract or do we try to keep him?</div></div>

Really depends on what the bounce back looks like. If he's a twenty goal guy, which I think is the most likely "bounce back" type we see, and you can get a different twenty goal guy that someone else is undervaluing (like a Victor Arvidsson type, maybe a bit better) then yeah I might trade him in the last year. But if he's back to high twenties low thirties I think based on the lack of elite scoring talent throughout the rest of the team you probably want to roll the dice and maybe even re-sign him at that point. But I could see it going either way, especially if cap space is an issue.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 1 at 3:08
Thread: If I was the Blues I would simply sign the best defenseman and center in FA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Chopper02</b></div><div>He's definitely not worth 6.5 mil. Not to mention he's also 28. So his performance will be going down pretty quickly here in a couple years. Again I like him and he fits the Blues mold, but for 6.5? Let him go.
Also worth mentioning that while it's great to have a high expected goals for, it doesn't mean much if you or linemates don't put the puck in the net.
While there are other things here I disagree with, it's pretty tame to the Danult. I'm thinking 4 × 4.5? So 18 mil over 4 years.</div></div>

Brendan Gallagher, Danault's most common line mate, is 5th in 5v5 goals since 17-18, behind Ovechkin, Pastrnak, Kucherov, McDavid. Seems like someone is putting pucks in the net on Danault's line with his high xGF%. Imagine what he could do with someone like Tarasenko.

You make a good point about Danault's age but the way this team is built we've got a ton of guys already in that position. Krug, Faulk, Binnington, Schenn are all Danault's age or older and signed to long term deals, all will be 33 or older when their contracts are done. O'Reilly and Tarasenko are in that same range and at least one of them will presumably be re-signed. So from my view, who cares what Danault is when he's 31 or 32? Get the talent now and deal with the consequences when the cup window is closed. It's not like 6.5 is an unmovable contract later if the guy only has a few years left and some playoff success to his name.

Of course, if we can get Danault for like 4.5 million I would again of course do that in a heartbeat. Don't need to twist my arm to save money, but I legitimately think someone will pay him that and I would do it if I was the Blues (wouldn't go any higher though).

Also happy to field any of the other things you dislike! Always like talking the Blues with the homies on Capfriendly.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 1 at 3:01
Thread: If I was the Blues I would simply sign the best defenseman and center in FA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jwg314</b></div><div>Actually pretty good. I think you could drop a mil or so off Danault though, and I wouldn’t expect that return in the OTT trade. It’s a lot of moves, so not sure how realistic all of it would be, but I wouldn’t be upset with this turnout.

What do you think we do next summer assuming Tarasenko has a decent bounce-back? We would have to re-sign Parayko and Perron.</div></div>

I'd like to see Parayko sign an extension for about Ryan Ellis money, move on from Blais and promote Neighbors, and then hopefully talk Perron into taking about what he's making now on a three year deal. He's earned more, but he will be 34 so taking him to 37 I feel like is more than fair for four million in a flat cap environment and that lets him retire as Blue. May also have to finally move Dunn that offseason if the cap space is needed, hopefully Perunovich is ready for a bigger role by that point.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 1 at 2:57
Thread: If I was the Blues I would simply sign the best defenseman and center in FA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Chooch</b></div><div>The Blues wouldn't give Petro $8.75M so don't see them giving that to Hamilton. Also don't like that Sundqvist trade. He does too much for Blues.</div></div>

I'd like to hope they realize that not giving that money to Pietrangelo was dumb and not make that mistake twice if they have a chance to acquire a younger, arguably better RHD for about the same price.

<a href="https://imgur.com/a/1hKPmxC" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Derek Ryan</a> can do everything <a href="https://imgur.com/a/qTVjVzx" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Sundqvist</a> can do and he can do it better. Sundqvist has the higher upside and maybe a bit more of a scoring touch, but who knows what he is after this ACL injury.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 1 at 2:53
Thread: If I was the Blues I would simply sign the best defenseman and center in FA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Chopper02</b></div><div>You're going to pay Danault over 6 mil? He's 4-4.5 mil tops! He's really good defensively,but his offense leaves much to be desired. Not worth that kind of money.</div></div>

Just because someone doesn't physically score the points doesn't mean that they don't drive offense extremely well. Danault is a possession machine (which is why he's also so good on defense) on a team that has historically had horrible special teams (where a lot of these guys actually rack up their points) while he's been there. An expected goals for pecentage of over 55% is the hallmark of a very good offensive driver, even if he doesn't have a lot of shooting talent himself.

He's worth the money, but like, I'm down for him to sign for less of course. Even if he isn't worth the money, I feel like he's gonna get paid after the Habs run by somebody.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 23 at 4:39
Thread: BUT if there isnt
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Dunn plays incredibly sheltered minutes vs 3rd and 4th lines, he is not particularly good defensively. Dube is young and looks very promising, he is a power forward that provides loads of forecheck with lots of speed. Yeah his stats this year weren't great but he was always deployed on the wing of our shutdown lines.

Calgary definitely isnt rebuilding and the severely underperformed this year</div></div>

You are absolutely right about Dunn's sheltered minutes previously in his career and Dube's numbers this year being worse than normal. However, those stats on Dube and Dunn are the aggregate from the last three years and Dunn did not play sheltered minutes this year (#172 among all skaters in quality of competition versus #600+ in QOC in previous years from Evolving-Hockey). To put that in perspective, Rasmus Andersson was #160 in QOC among all skaters this year. Krug/Parayko/Scandella/Gunnarsson were all hurt at various parts of the year, so Dunn played a ton of top four minutes and did fine. Obviously not the toughest minutes, but certainly not sheltered.

People think he's not good defensively because he's not out there hitting people or breaking up passes- things that Dunn is not good at that we traditionally associate with being "good" defensive plays. But if you are good at getting and keeping possession of the puck when you're on the ice, which Dunn is extremely good at, then you're not going to be allowing tons of shot quality against while you're on the ice, which is, at its core, what you want from your defense. That's why he's good defensively.

Definitely not trying to argue that Dunn isn't overrated because maybe he is, but I think his reputation as an "offense only" guys is a bit unearned, at least at even strength and his defense doesn't get enough credit. He's been solid there, and he still scores on the PP.

I know they aren't rebuilding and probably aren't going to, I'm just saying they should. They might be able to make the playoffs in a similarly weak division next year (provided they get that third spot behind Vegas and Edmonton, they might have trouble getting a wild card spot otherwise with the Central going back to normal) but it's hard to picture a sustained window of success when so many of the guys they're relying on heavily are in their thirties (Markstrom, Giordano, Backlund) the guys in their prime are consistently underperforming (Monahan, Gaudreau), and they only have a handful of young guys who have thus far made a big impact (Hanifin and Tkachuk).
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 23 at 3:38
Thread: BUT if there isnt
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Dunn is overrated and only good offensively, Dube has top 6 potential</div></div>

If anything Dunn is <a href="https://imgur.com/a/Cf5Lslg" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">only good defensively and just racks up points on the PP</a> while if you're playing Dube in your top six your <a href="https://imgur.com/a/tgSKSpe" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"> team is probably not very good</a>. He's young but like those are not great early returns.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jcambers</b></div><div>But this is practically the exact same team as this past year.
How do they possibly get better?</div></div>

They don't! Not without taking a step back first. I don't really buy all the "Tkachuk wants out" rumors but regardless of his status Calgary management needs to rebuild this team. I get he was hurt this year but Monahan has been in three years of decline. Backlund is in his thirties, Lucic is in his thirties, Giordano is in his late thirties, Tanev is in his thirties, Markstrom is in his thirties. And like, some of those players are still good- we've jumped the shark on how bad Lucic really is, Giordano is still insanely good, Tanev was great this year, Markstrom is only a year removed from a Vezina-caliber season and Backlund is still underrated- but Calgary needs to be in the playoffs every year to maximize those older guys and they're not.

It's tough for any fanbase to hear and it's certainly not exciting but the way to make the team better is to sell everyone over 25 and try to get top picks while these next few drafts are loaded with high end talent. Start this season with selling Gaudreau and Giordano if you can and Tanev while his value is high if you can(yes, even though they just signed him, because he could turn back into a pumpkin at any point). If you want to really make noise sell Monahan and Lindholm too, though they have some term left so it might make sense to keep them for a bit. A lot of people might think that's an extreme path but like, if you keep Gaudreau and rebuild for the next three years suddenly he's 31 and probably in decline and just eating away usable cap space for you.

The new core is Hanifin (great) Tkachuk (great, borderline elite) Mangiapane (great) Andersson (less great) and Dube (maybe fine who knows he's only 22). And then guys like Wolf and Zary too assuming they pan out. And then hopefully you can add Bedard or Wright, or literally any young high end talent, to that pile and have a really special team down the road.

I definitely don't think it's impossible to make moves to make the team better next year, but like if we're talking sustained success that's the way you gotta go.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun 12 at 1:54
Thread: Whats the prices
First and a top-ish prospect for Parayko. I would try and get Frost if I was the Blues. Blues could try and augment with Sanford or a role player center Barbashev, and maybe one of our lesser prospects like Toropchenko especially since Philly is drafting decently high this year and Parayko had an injury year to balance things out. I'd also be interested in taking JVR if there's some retention to be had since we need a scoring LW, but that's dependent on the cap, he's kinda expensive.

Of course, only works if there's a RHD solution for the Blues to replace Parayko. Not that that necessarily has to come from Philadelphia (and Phillipe Myers obviously isn't a top pair guy) but that's the only way we'd move him. I'd trade Parayko for a decent package in a heartbeat if it meant landing Hamilton to replace him.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 24 at 1:16