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The_Gaudfather

Member Since
Aug. 17, 2020
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Calgary Flames
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Carolina Hurricanes
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 21, 2020 at 8:44 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 21, 2020 at 6:30 p.m.
Thread: My Favorite Trade this Week
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>justaBoss</b></div><div>Assuming you mean the Lindholm+ for Hamilton+ trade?

Imo CAR got a bit screwed there in a sense since Fox had to deal that situation like a prick.

Then again considering what become of Hamilton, they did very well there.</div></div>

Funny, because to me Calgary got fleeced. Hanifin has been either poor or just ok. Huge let down. Lindholm has been good, but a lot of that has to do with who he's playing with. He's a useful piece, but likely isn't able to drive a line on his own. All while Hamilton has only done more to entrench himself as a #1 D and Adam Fox has shown his viability as a top defender. Carolina also got two 2nd round picks for Fox. last year they used the draft capital to select Jamieson Rees and Anttoni Honka. Rees in particular had a fantastic D+1 season in the OHL. They still have a 2nd for this year.

Today, I don't think you could trade Lindholm and Hanifin for either one of Hamilton or Fox, and that's pretty telling.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 18, 2020 at 3:16 p.m.
Thread: Capitals if they get swept or lose rd 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>coots is Couturier and lol i cant continue to have this conversation. agree to disagree. to be clear you are generally describing plus/minus hes a career +61.... hes on the ice for more goals than goals against... i mean thats proven so that logic is just inaccurate. in 7 seasons hes been a - 2x and it was a -2. so he might give up a lot of shots/chances but for the most part he scores more than he lets up 5v5.... to say if you think hes good than hes overrated is just a silly comment. ... AGAIN your logic is hes on the ice for 2goals for and 3 against would make him disgusting negative correct? again common sense tells you this.... he defends poorly but hes an elite offensive forward take it or leave it. nitpicking again on the Trouba logic idc have a good day good talk lol</div></div>

2 goals for and 3 against was an example, I never indicated those were Kuzentzov's numbers. I am also not talking about his career either, just what he is now. This is not a plus/minus problem. Your reading compression is seriously lacking, as our summations of Trouba were the inverse of each other. As I said earlier, if you enjoy hockey better with just cursory understanding, go off that. Just saying, "coots is Couturier", is hilarious.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 18, 2020 at 2:25 p.m.
Thread: Capitals if they get swept or lose rd 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>i said that? i said hes "okay at offense"... thats basically the same thing as not good? and i said hes barely a good defender .6 is :reasonable" but in reality thats the same as "barely good". up to this point you have repeated everything ive said just using different word? which is fine but seems pointless. Kuzy like i said is elite offensively and not good at defense. Again what i said. lol so up to this point we are 2 paragraphs in and have the same views. Kuzy isnt overrated... people know hes terrible at defense and elite at offense.... top 30 in ppg last 3 years and top 3 in playoff points last 3 years. i wouldnt say thats overrated considering what we already know, right? i will disagree that i dont put stock in data that values all shots the same and the volume of shots taken.....Corsi/Fen are amazing tools but sometimes common sense is the best tool.... like Coots vs mcdavid. Advance stats would tell you coots is better,right? who are you drafting? also repeating stuff with different words and making 5 paragraphs seems a little extra not that i dont love having this conversation</div></div>

- I was disagreeing with you. I said Trouba isn't very good on offense, that he's a reasonable defender, but that he would have better D impact if he was utilized differently. You said, "Trouba is barely a good defender but has okay offensive upside". To say again, my conclusion on Kuznetsov is that he's just bad. Meaning that if you think he is good, you overrate him.

- Knowing Kuznetsov can't defend doesn't make it more palatable that he can't. If you score 2 goals every game but give up 3, you still lose.

- Wrong, Kuznetsov is not by any measure better than McDavid.

- None of EW's metrics use Corsi or Fenwick as their most key components.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 18, 2020 at 1:21 p.m.
Thread: Capitals if they get swept or lose rd 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Capitalfail67</b></div><div>his data basically says Trouba is barely a good defender but has okay offensive upside... Kuzy has amazing offensive upside but terrible defense.... so if you want a poor mans Carlson who makes the same amount of money you could get trouba but youd regret it bc hes not very good at defense and above average at offense lol. i will take my chances with Kuzy poor defense than trade him for an overpaid average defensman lol SORRY</div></div>


The data posted actually shows that Trouba isn't very good at generating offense (expected even strength offence value of -0.1, but decent on the PP 1.6), while his defensive contribution (even strength defense 0.6 but -2.2 on the PK) is reasonable. Most of his negative value comes from his use on the penalty kill, which could likely be reduced if this weakness was accounted for. If used properly he would likely add more than 0.1 WAR, but he still isn't all that good.

On Kuznetsov, all value he adds offensively is negated by how bad he is on D, and by the deficit he puts his team at by taking penalties. Additionally, all of his line-mates are made worse by playing with him. This is all happening despite Kuznetsov getting some of the easiest deployment on the team.

Both are overrated, and both aren't very good. It just seems that Trouba is likely less bad than Kuznetsov.

You're free to disagree with the data if you find hockey more enjoyable that way, and though it's true not everything that happens can be efficiently quantified, it's equally as naive to think that someone can watch a given game and lift certainties from from their impressions. The trouble I always have, is if Kuznetsov is such a star-player, why doesn't it show up in his impact? Is he really doing so much that goes undetected that his on-ice metrics are invalid? Seems unlikely. We should use all the tools available to evaluate players so invalidating one method, be it analytics or anecdotal impressions, isn't smart. That being said, people have bias and we miss things all the time, so it's important to be able to cross-reference personal feelings with actual metrics.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2020 at 9:49 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2020 at 9:04 p.m.
Thread: Changing of the Gaurd
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ajp_18</b></div><div>If I’m Columbus I’m not trading Bjorkstrand right now. Not sure if Anderson and a 1st round get Monahan though. Bjorkstrnd is basically untouchable.

Nico would have to likely be a pretty big overpayment.

IMO Calgary shouldn’t be morning their core players. Keep Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk and add a younger number 1 D and go get someone like Raanta to be the number one.

What would you think of a trade around Merzlinkins andAnderson for Lindholm and Parson or Gillies (which ever one you don’t want). That would help fill the goalie hole for CGY and replaces Lindholm on the wing. Columbus gets a guy who could be a 2nd line center.</div></div>

I actually did think about Monahan to ARI for Garland, Raanta, and a 1st, but I felt like that wasn't a big enough return. Just with how volatile the goal-tending position can be, it doesn't make sense for Calgary to trade such a big asset for a goaltender. Further, I feel Monahan is overrated, and that Calgary would be smart to move him for a player that actually moves the needle. Gaudreau is the driver on their line so I move him reluctantly, and would prefer to keep him. Gaudreau is on a really good contract with some term left, and could really be a boon for a team looking to contend. If he is traded, his contract has to be recognized as a component of his value. Unfortunately, I feel that a Gaudreau trade is almost inevitable at this point, but should only be done for a high-end young-player.

At least for now, Talbot and Rittich are good enough and I would hesitate to move Lindholm for a goalie. I'm not really high on Josh Anderson either. Though I like Merzilkins a lot, I'm not sure I would offer much more than Sam Bennett and a 2020 3rd.

Provided Calgary cannot get Hischer out of NJ, Anthony Cirelli should be top of the list. Lindholm would not only be valuable to TB, but also versatile, especially considering their cap crunch. Though moving other pieces out would be preferable, they likely have to make a choice between Sergachev and Cirelli.