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The_Ultimate_Pielord

I put math in hockey
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Jun. 1, 2018
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Forum: Expansion DraftJul. 19, 2021 at 1:22 a.m.
Thread: Yes the D corps is risky but do you see this forward group.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Ultimate_Pielord</b></div><div>Yeah FA is probably the best option to fill out the D corps. The original version of this had Pettersson instead of ZAR and Henrique instead of Fleury, but ended up over the 2021 cap, and I felt like I needed a solid chunk for the RFA budget. I probably over-corrected on that front, though. MacDonald did play really easy minutes this year but on the other hand he absolutely slaughtered them, and his AHL numbers are impressive too. Sort of like that one college football team that went undefeated for 3 years straight because they played in an easy conference, it's tough to gauge where he is until he actually gets some competition. CDH is a good idea, too.

JVR definitely makes sense, yeah. At the time I was worried about the cap hit and the potential non-Ghost D corps, but in retrospect grabbing JVR and probably swapping out Domi for cap space would've made the team better.

Senko just feels like a risk Seattle doesn't need to take, given the injuries it's really possible it's a 7 mil cap hit for nothing, and Duchene's term kinda scares me.</div></div>

I like the possibility of flipping Domi for assets, and CBJ hasn’t left anything available really.

I completely agree on your last paragraph. I left them off my initial mock, but did take RyJo. I am planning on leaving him off my final though.

Not gonna lie, I think the Eberle pick isn’t great…he’s not very flippable and the cap hit / term combo is scary for me. I would go with Aho instead of him, but I know I saw you comment you really liked Eberle’s game.
Forum: Expansion DraftJul. 19, 2021 at 12:37 a.m.
Thread: Yes the D corps is risky but do you see this forward group.
MacDonald's minutes were so sheltered last year. He played great, but I would be surprised to see him thrive as a top pairing dman.

I have a question. If you are going for a kickass forward corp, why take GhostBear (who is a major risk) and leave JVR on the table? I know JVR's cap hit is higher, but only a bit and for two years. Plus he is still a fantastic forward.

To fill that GhostBear hole on the defense, you could choose Zadorov or de Haan instead of Subban and use Kinkaid as your backup. Or you could spend more money and swap Vanecek for Petterrson. Or you could hope to sign Ryan Suter, Ian Cole, Dougie Hamilton, or whoever you like best in free agency. Just a thought. This is interesting overall. I am a little surprised a forward-focused draft doesn't feature Tarasenko and/or Duchene as well. But I understand the cap hits are ridiculous.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2021 at 8:25 p.m.
Thread: Back to the playoffs where we belong
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Ultimate_Pielord</b></div><div>Oh I love ultra-aggressive armchair GMs. So much fun to pick apart!

1. The Canes probably don't take that Foegele deal. Warren's an excellent play driver and forechecker that hockeyviz estimates as providing 12% more scoring chances than a league average player. MacEwan's not a terrible player, but he's a touch below average driving play and is a lot less established. The Canes really value chance generation and forechecking, I'd be surprised to see Foegele on the move at all.

2.You can totally do better than Larsson at his price point this offseason. His impacts are the standard Niklas Hjalmarsson special, excellent defensively, hurts his own team's offense nearly as much. Hjalmarsson and David Savard are both options for that available at &lt;2 million dollars this offseason, or for more value they could target Mark Pysyk, not quite as much defense as those three but he's an above average driver of offence and won't cost a thing.

3. Nate Schmidt was not good in Vancouver, below average defensively and average offensively. Nikita Zadorov is very bad, he's average defensively and abysmal defensively. A better idea would be to just get a pick for Schmidt (or not qualify Zadorov) and replace Zad with Hjalmarsson/Savard for some extra defence, and, somehow, extra offense too.

4. Schmaltz deal is interesting. I have no idea what the Coyotes' plans are right now, but I doubt they'd want to take Roussel back in that deal.

5. Poor Jake McCabe. I love the add, Jake's a great player on a bargain contract that will make whoever signs him very happy this offseason. But god do I feel bad about a scenario in which somehow leaves Buffalo and STILL finds himself on a pairing with a boat anchor that makes 3 times his salary. Surprised you didn't try to replace Myers, but I guess dumping that deal could be a headache.

6. Devan Dubnyk is extremely bad at this point in his career. Hockeyviz currently estimates that Dubnyk makes an average shot against him 14% more likely to be a goal. He and Martin Jones were so bad in San Jose that Patrick Bacon wrote a whole article about how goaltending is basically random UNLESS you manage to acquire a tandem as awful as Jones and Dubnyk. Sign somebody else. Anybody else.

As far as going all-in on the next couple of years goes, the top-9 is strong as long as Pearson rebounds defensively, but that right side is really iffy and I'm not sold on the goaltending. Sort of like the Leafs a couple years ago, actually. At least they won't have to face the Bruins until the finals?</div></div>

Thanks for the input.

1. I think Foegle will get moved. All the rumours out there are that he wants a bigger role and I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that he won't return to Carolina. I think the price is fair given the scenario. I don't see any teams offering more than this. If someone does offer a 2nd then they take that instead but I don't think it's going to happen. I agree that he's a good player and I think someone will get a good value deal for him.

2. I'm not sold on Larsson either but I don't like the age of the other guys listed and Larsson is very strong defensively and adds some toughness to the back end. Quinn plays best with D partners that don't worry about offense. Larsson is similar to tanev in the good defensive numbers and bad offensive numbers.

3. Zadorov again adds some more toughness and physicality to the back end. I would prefer to dump Schmidt for a pick as well but I don't see it happening. I think Zadorov would be a solid partner for Rathbone albeit an expensive one for the 3rd pair. Nuitavara out of Florida would be another option here.

4. I'm sure Arizona wouldn't love to take Roussell back but I think most teams looking to take on almost 6mil cap hit are going to have to send some sort of cap back. Rooster is cheap in actual dollars owed and will be off the books in a year.

5. I also feel bad for McCabe lol. If it wasn't for the injury I think he would get term around 4mil but unfortunately he will likely have to take a 1yr deal to show he's good to go again. At least in Van he knows he has a chance to get lots of ice time. And you're right I would love to dump Myers but that is just too difficult to predict and I'm not interested in paying to get rid of him.

6. I'm not sold on Dubnyk either but they could really sign any backup in the 800-1mil range. Whoever their goalie coach wants.

I wouldn't mind not signing Larsson or getting Zadorov and just picking up some 1 year contracts to get them through the season and then hopefully the UFA D next season have some good players that make it there. Ideally Hampus Lindholm and Ryan Pulock.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2021 at 6:56 p.m.
Thread: Tight fit but doable - with explanations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>joshelkin</b></div><div>I can see the risk from both sides. Who wins this deal will be based on Tarasenko's health - and if Lou gets a clean bill/confidence from our doctors than it's worth pursuing IMO. If the rumors are true and we've already made a call to STL, that tells me Lou sees it as a risk worth taking.</div></div>

If they don’t take komarov then I don’t think the isles should have to include a 2nd rd pick. I think this trade undervalues Eberle - he had a 1st line impact this season. I can understand wanting to upgrade, but it’s a huge risk even if he’s deemed healthy. He’s only played 34 games in the last 2 years and he has struggled big time. So if the isles are giving up Eberle they shouldn’t have to give up much more than him.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 4, 2019 at 7:08 p.m.
Thread: Time to Reconnect the Dots Between Buf and Edm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Ultimate_Pielord</b></div><div>Glad to see there are people on this website ready to fight on my behalf.

I mean, the Sabres coaching in the Risto era hasn't been good, if only because they kept playing Risto all those minutes, and the D corps and bottom-6 have both been equivalent to a dumpster on fire in a flood in a hurricane, so Swag's ain't wrong that Risto didn't have a great situation.

Even accounting for all that, Risto was making a bad situation worse. Maybe he develops better in a different environment,but at 25 that time is more than likely past us.

The big question I have for anyone who cites the eye test is what specifically they see from (insert player here) that leads them to believe that the analytics are wrong and this player provides more than they say. The reason is I feel like a lot of people just go to points, TOI, hits and blocks as value metrics, then tell people (and maybe themselves) that it's the eye test as opposed to just crummier stats. If it is an actual firm and reasoned eye test, that question should be answered.



Floor's open Swagmaster, what specific things does Risto do well by the eye test that the numbers don't show? Sorry if I'm coming off as condescending, I do genuinely want to hear what you have to say here.</div></div>

Plays a great physical game . His outlet passes are much better this year with far more thought put into them. His defensive zone coverage and coverage in front of the net are greatly improved now that we are rid of Housley and his flawed system. Analytics are a tool and helpful but not the only thing to be considered when judging a player
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 3, 2019 at 4:08 p.m.
Thread: Time to Reconnect the Dots Between Buf and Edm
Do Sabres fans still not understand - despite Edmonton's flaws - that nobody is paying a premium price for Ristolainen?

If you want this deal, drop the 2021 2nd Round Pick in favour of the Buffalo 2020 1st (unprotected) and toss Davidsson in. I literally don't care that Puljujarvi is in this deal: in what universe does one of the league's worst defenders and a middle-six winger net you a defensively-responsible top-6 center? Christ almighty, give something up if you want to get RNH. Teams should pay for what players are worth, the Chiarelli days are over. The Oilers won't pay for what Sheary or Ristolainen could be in Edmonton. They'll pay for what they've been in Buffalo, and that's only a couple steps north of NHL replacement level players.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 3, 2019 at 5:00 p.m.
Thread: Time to Reconnect the Dots Between Buf and Edm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>Do Sabres fans still not understand - despite Edmonton's flaws - that nobody is paying a premium price for Ristolainen?

If you want this deal, drop the 2021 2nd Round Pick in favour of the Buffalo 2020 1st (unprotected) and toss Davidsson in. I literally don't care that Puljujarvi is in this deal: in what universe does one of the league's worst defenders and a middle-six winger net you a defensively-responsible top-6 center? Christ almighty, give something up if you want to get RNH. Teams should pay for what players are worth, the Chiarelli days are over. The Oilers won't pay for what Sheary or Ristolainen could be in Edmonton. They'll pay for what they've been in Buffalo, and that's only a couple steps north of NHL replacement level players.</div></div>

Listen, I'll be the first one to say Risto isn't great. But tossing in an unprotected 1st and davidsson just for RNH is just crazy talk.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 3, 2019 at 1:25 p.m.
Thread: Question for the Leafs fans
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Ultimate_Pielord</b></div><div>This year's data doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot yet, there's a reason the Younggrens haven't even run the regression they use for RAPM's this year. Corsi needs 20-25 games to stabilize and IIRC xG needs even more. I'm a LOT more inclined to believe that he's more or less who he was in Ottawa, close to average on offence and apocalyptically, horrifically, team-destroyingly bad on D.

A lot of people cite the "well, the private data is better so the public stuff doesn't matter" argument, but I dunno what the public stuff misses on the macro level. Unless somehow the private data says shots from the point are better than shots from the slot, the public data is still pretty good. The obvious miss is pre-shot movement, except a) we do have some proxies for that in the public data (like shot type) and b) Ceci doesn't really seem to defend that well, either. Other stuff, like individual transition/shot assist numbers, tends to be more of the why a player is good/bad rather than the is a player good/bad. It does help to know, but at the same time the end goal is outscoring the other team and outchancing is the most reliable way to do that, and we've got pretty good public data for that.</div></div>

Man, I really like what you bring to this site and the discussions that you take part in. Your takes help to blow up some narratives that probably should be before they build up a head of steam.

Here's my take on Babcock, and it comes from some experience playing for a bunch of different coaches. I think he's lost, or at very least, is losing the room. You can kinda see it in the players body language and the way they're playing looks alot like what it does when you're worried about making mistakes. They seem like they don't have a clue as to what they're supposed to be doing in their own zone, kinda like their instincts are telling them one thing and their d system is demanding something else.. so nothing gets done. They look robotic and predictable on the pp. And they play with almost zero emotion or passion. From what I remember of the game these things all start to happen when there is a problem coach..

I could be way off on this and who knows what's going on in that room, but I think its pretty telling that the calls for Babcock's head are getting louder after every game and there hasn't been a player yet tell the media that it's on the players, not the coach. I think they're turning him out.

The easy attempt to fix the leafs is to can Babcock before trading roster players. Keefe and Dubas have a long history. Sack Babcock, hire Keefe andvif that doesn't turn things around then every player is put on notice that they could be next. And if that doesn't turn things around in the next couple years, then that could be the end of Dubas..
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 24, 2019 at 6:13 p.m.
Thread: Babcock Out Realistic Trades and Line Changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Ultimate_Pielord</b></div><div>The Leafs definitely haven't declined since year two, a pair of tight 7-game losses against Boston are a lot more impressive than a 6-game loss against Washington, and there's a been a massive difference recordwise between the wildcard and 3rd in the Atlantic with how topheavy that division is.

The losses to Boston are mostly down to the Bruins just having a better roster. The issue is that roster difference is down to Boston's top guys being better overall (Offence+Defence) than their Toronto counterparts. It's not really clear how to fix that: the only realistic Bergeron-level players to change teams recently are Tavares, EK, Stone and Hamilton. The Leafs had legitimate chances of landing exactly 2 of those players (OTT refuses to trade within the Atlantic because reasons) and got one of them. They just haven't had opportunities to add the top-end talent they need to beat teams with those guys consistently. This is feasibly a top-5 roster, but Boston and Tampa are top-3 rosters.
.500 record isn't acceptable but the Leafs are a top-5 team in CF% (Corsi &gt; xG for this season due to the location bug) and realistically this roster isn't going to consistently underperform its playdriving, even if you're bearish on Freddie. The defensive deficiencies are a function of the roster: Guy Boucher won coach of the year and wasn't able to make Ceci not apocalyptic on D, Rielly's been bad defensively his whole career, JT was bad defensively on the Island, Nylander's D was decent last year : <a href="https://gyazo.com/a58939894bd1bf4ceb5418c2b24dc2f1" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://gyazo.com/a58939894bd1bf4ceb5418c2b24dc2f1</a>, so that basically means Matthews among the core guys could feasibly have been better defensively under a different coach. This team's also had a LOT of back-to-backs, and given how young the season is, that has a big impact on their record. It's been a lot better than it looks.

The fundamental truth is Toronto's roster is worse than Boston's and has no realistic way to become better than Boston's unless someone wants to take a machinegun to their foot. Best thing they can do is stick to the plan and hope they get lucky in the spring.</div></div>

Huh. You're a tough guy to argue with..

After reading your post, I think I'm landing on the current situation being a combination of what you stated, plus an overenthusiastic fan base that has been long starved for some success, plus some misplaced expectations, plus a lack of patience, plus general frustration with Babcock and the overall sh*tshow that is the 24/7 media in Toronto.

So, what are you telling me this equation equals? Please don't say another 50 year plus drought...cause I don't have time for that.

Honestly though, that's a super solid and rational assessment of the current state of affairs. And when you put it like that, things really aren't that bad. Especially with how the Marlies are shaping up with the likes of Sandin, Lily, Korshkov, Bracco and with Robertson on deck.

All that said, you kinda take some of the fun out of this stuff with your reasonable, well-thought out takes. I was half way done finishing my manifesto on how the leafs fan base can get Babcock sacked. That's time in my life I'll never get back... thanks for that... :(
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 24, 2019 at 2:01 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 23, 2019 at 10:00 p.m.
Thread: Babcock Out Realistic Trades and Line Changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Ultimate_Pielord</b></div><div>Dubas's strength is in finding good players on the fringes (Holl with the Marlies, Petan, Ennis, Spezza, Shore), in being patient enough with busts to recoup value (Goat) and in development (Moore, Marchment with the Marlies, among others). He definitely values skill more than Babs, but idk if it's irreconcilable. Hyman in the top-6 makes a decent amount of sense, pairing him with Marner makes a ton of sense since Marner has trouble driving play at evens (Hyman's main strength). Helps keep the bottom-6 strong too, which is important for a team that probably wins more games with depth than stars. Babs has at least had the sense to keep Nylander with Matthews this year. I think they can feasibly make it work in a no-Ceci scenario, unless Babcock actively goes against Dubas over the grit/skill divide. Plenty of teams in sports have had success with iffy relationships between coach and management (Larry Brown's Pistons, Harbaugh's 49ers, etc.) If Babs wants a shutdown D, see if you can find a way to grab Niklas Hjalmarsson (not a bad idea in general, the Leafs could use a guy who just completely stops the hockey for a shift).

Yeah the Nylander and Matthews contracts were iffy and the Marner deal's an oof and a half.</div></div>

This is a really solid assessment. Thanks, Pie.

Just to ge clear, I have no issue at all with Hymans game. It's pretty obvious what he brings to the team and the impact that he has on his line - last year and the years before. I'm just pointing out how Babs' never ending praise of Zak speaks to what he values in a player within your suggestion of how Babcock struggles with talent evaluation. That's not a knock on Hyman. It's more about the difference in how Dubas and Babcock might see how the team should be constructed and then deployed.

I don't think Babcock will actively undermine Dubas. But I could see how his ego/personality could make it tough for him to adapt to the team that Dubas is building. That could definitely be a set up for a collision course. And if comes to that, I don't think Babcock survives it .
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 23, 2019 at 9:23 p.m.
Thread: Next Year
Overall, I would be fine with everything here and I think it's pretty realistic in terms of what Benning wants to do.

Getting rid of Eriksson in any form is a huge plus and hopefully the Ducks ownership would rather pay an NHL player than an injured one, even if the injured one costs less. That would be a huge move for the franchise. I also like that you brought back Markstrom; Demko hasn't proven much yet and making the wrong decision on you're goalie can ruin a franchise. This buys us more time in that department. I'm not sure Markstrom would accept that term, but the goalie market is very weird (Lehner this summer got one year). I'd rather not trade Stetcher, but if for whatever reason Benning feels he has to or Stetcher requests a trade then that's the exact deal I would look to make. Dumping Sutter even with retention is a win and while I'd rather not move Baertschi, it seems like management has moved on.

The main thing I'm skeptical about here is Barrie. He's a good player and all, but I'm not sure there's a need or a fit for him here, especially if Hughes sticks on PP1. If Barrie isn't running you're first unit, he's not being used to his full potential and becomes more of a liability. I don't want to pay that price for a PP2 defenseman. At 5 on 5 he's good and bad but overall not worth that price. If he wants to take a hometown discount to play in Vancouver (ie. less than 6 million per) then sure, but I don't see that happening. Personally, I would look to move Pearson as hopefully his value will increase playing with Horvat and I don't see him as a long term option in the top 6. '

Good job though.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 23, 2019 at 9:21 p.m.
Thread: Babcock Out Realistic Trades and Line Changes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>The_Ultimate_Pielord</b></div><div>I feel like Babcock's a bit underrated as a coach because his main flaw (his talent evaluation) is REALLY visible. He's gotten a fair bit out of some crummy rosters and had plenty of success with talented ones, as in Detroit. Right now the only thing he seems to be totally screwing up is the Cody Ceci Experience, which can be fixed by trading Ceci for literally nothing. There isn't really a bad way to do Toronto's lines as long as the top pair is either Muzzin or Rielly with Barrie, which seems inevitable in a no-Ceci setup. Even if Babs doesn't trust Barrie as a shutdown RD, the Leafs could have an RD group of Barrie-Marincin-Holl, which would force either Barrie (a really good defenceman) or Marincin (solid defensively if nothing else) as the shutdown RD. Yeah, 2 straight first round losses is rough for a team that has top-5 aspirations, but Boston's a top-5 team in the NHL and arguably has an entire line of players who would be Toronto's best player. This team needs to get lucky to beat Boston regardless of coaching and hasn't yet. Trade Ceci, keep Babs, and wait until you do. Gotta be lucky + good to win a cup.

I'd be willing as a coach to try Muzzin-Lilly as a shutdown pair for like 10-20 games and see where the underlyings end up. I don't think it could torpedo the season and I kinda wanna see if Lilly's ready. I don't think Babs thinks this way.</div></div>

Interesting take on Babcock's short coming being talent evaluation. Once you pointed that out it seemed almost laughably obvious me. And it explains why Hyman (who I like) can do no wrong in Babcock's eyes, while a guy like Nylander seems to have a hard time doing anything right for Mike.

It also sets up a possible irreconcilable tension between how Dubas and Babs see how the team achieves success. Because I would say that talent evaluation is one of Dubas's strengths. Contract negotiations? Maybe not so much.