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me wan da poonani
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Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 20, 2023 at 4:27 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 20, 2023 at 4:08 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>"Very good season so far"?!? His 0.900 save percentage and 3.16 goals-against average are microscopically better than Schmid's figures (0.897 and 3.12). Three goals out of one thousand shots is well within the margin of error.</div></div>
Well yes, but there's this much more refined stat called 'Goals Saved Above Expected' (GSAx, for short).
The neat thing about GSAx is that it can control for the difficulty of the shots the goalie has to deal with.
The way that stat controls for difficulty is that it measures the location of where the shot is taken from, which is kinda valuable to look at given that shots from the blueline aren't equivalently dangerous as shots from the slot (makes sense, right?). Some more advanced variations of GSAx can even control for pre shot puck movement and what kinda of shot has actually taken place (slapper, backhand, screened shots etc).
Anyway, these are controls that regular sv% and GAA cannot do and therefore one should be very careful about what conclusion are drawn from those static data points...

As it happens, among goalies playing more than 10 games so far this season Lankinen ranks 14th in GSAx/60mins (at 5v5), which is pretty good!
Gibson is 17th in 5v5 GSAx/60, for reference.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>I see that you entirely missed the OP's point that Hamilton's absence is likely to lead to decreased performance, not improved.</div></div>
This is fair.
However, OP didn't seem to take into account that the Devils have been playing about one third of the season without Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier.
Any team would struggle to be competitive if they had to play without their top 2 Cs, especially when their number one defender has been taken out of commission within that same time-frame.
Getting Hughes and Hischier back makes it likelier that the Devils will see increased overall performance.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 8, 2023 at 7:01 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Hampus Lindholm was getting out-chanced, out-shot, out-scored. Fowler had higher CF%rel. Move Lindholm into Bruins lineup…he is now their leader in CF%rel.</div></div>
Betting on Lindholm at the 2022 TDL is very different from trading for Fowler in the present day however.
Lindholm is (and was) on a different level to Fowler and putting up possession metrics below 50% for 3 quarters of a season doesn't change that, nor does it in anyway speak to throwing all that at Fowler being a good idea whatsoever.
Maybe Fowler gets some of his magic back if traded to contender, for a time, but in the end that 6.5m is gonna be a real anchor on Fitzy's cap sheet for the duration of his deal.
Why bother paying so much for all that risk when Bahl is, in my opinion, the better player between the two at present (and most definitely will be in 12 months from now)??
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GiggywithGibby</b></div><div>But you're talking about a bottom pair defenseman, a prospect who likely never makes the roster in NJ if he ever makes the show, and a pick that should be in the 20s for a more than serviceable top 4 defenseman on a reasonable contract over the next three years.</div></div>
I'm not sure what you're on about here. Hämeenaho is having a great D+1 year in Liiga and at this point in time I'd be very surprised if he didn't make the Devils lineup on an ELC within the next 2 years. He's a homerun of a 2nd rd draft pick and shouldn't be tossed into some ill-advised trade for Fowler and his contract...
Bahl is actually been playing 2nd pair a lot so far this season and while his level of play isn't as good as it was last year, it doesn't compare to how difficult a time Fowler has been having with the Ducks over the last 1.5 years. At best it's a lateral move in the short-term on player ability alone but factoring age and cap hit in this is a straight up downgrade for the Devils and their blueline.
Why should the Devils tack a 1st on to all that and forego the opportunity to restock a diminishing pool of prospects when superior players like Hanifin or Tanev could be had for less? (or why even trade for a defenceman in the first place)

It makes no sense whatsoever to pursue Fowler and certainly not for this ridiculous amount of value...
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 8, 2023 at 6:12 p.m.
Forum: NHLDec. 4, 2023 at 1:08 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 13, 2023 at 4:39 p.m.