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TomAce

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Dec. 21, 2020
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Edmonton Oilers
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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 2 at 6:00 p.m.
Thread: HertlHard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>wasn't JT miller traded at like 25 or 26 with three years left? hardly a comparable.

players like Hertl don't get moved because teams don't want to pay to take on that kind of risk.

Listen, the guy is north of 30, at an age where most forwards start the decline, and kind of frequently fall off a cliff to buyout territory (and i believe his contract is really hard to buy out). He gets an absurd amount of ice time, and the production isn't there to match. He's 323rd in the NHL in points/60. probably not exactly fair, so lets refine to guys that get 14+ minutes at 5 on 5. not a ton of those, 59 forwards to be exact. he ranks 50th! that's not good. two of those guys after him have combined for three total games.

With most players, they're very underpaid on their first two contracts, and at the end, they get the big ticket UFA deal, and the last few years look bad, sometimes really bad. No team is going to say, "congrats, you got all the good years. we'll pay you to give us the bad ones!"

it just isn't really a thing.</div></div>


Hertl has several good years ahead of him.

Regardless, a big part of this is getting rid of Campbell, who has a worse contract than Hertl all day.

For the Oilers, trading Foegele and Campbell’s cap hits for Hertl’s is a good deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 2 at 2:28 p.m.
Thread: HertlHard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>find a comp of a team doing that. it doesn't really happen.

the argument of, "oh sure the cap will go up," just doesn't hold water, and isn't a reason for taking on a bad long-term deal.</div></div>

The cap will go up, so idk why that doesn’t hold water, the only reason it hasn’t elevated is cause of Covid. 8m for an elite 2C is a reasonable price.

Plus, to get rid of Campbell for a good player is a big part of this, and that has a lot of value in itself.

Comparable buys? Tough to say because teams don’t trade good, controllable players often. But a JT miller rings a bell somewhat. The contract might not be good in 2028, but I think it’s pretty good till about then.

I think we are downplaying how good a Hertl will be on a team like the Oilers rn. They’d be tough to matchup with.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 22 at 1:14 p.m.
Thread: Flip
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>If Thomas hasn’t taken another step this year I could conceivably see them heading for a full tear down. But he has and it would be a shame if more than 2 or 3 of the next 8 years were wasted.

We just cannot feasibly replace what Parayko brings for the next long while. He’s a horse, and he plays every matchup covering the flaws of the rest of our ****ty defense at actually defending.

In terms of the players from the Oilers side, Brobergs development has been so poorly handled by the Oilers it’s hard to imagine a situation where he does much more than salvage an NHL career. Admittedly aside from Lavoies physical specs, don’t know a lot. But I do know our forward prospect pool is in a very very good spot. It’d be an unnecessary surplus. The first is presumably anywhere from 22-32. Fine, but nothing to write home about, or justify us moving out Parayko.

If it were Faulk this would be a hard, but much different conversation.</div></div>

I think Broberg has so much ability, he’s a good buy. He’s still a pup in dman years.

I’m a Parayko fan, so I see your point. His injury history is concerning but not a dealbreaker for me.

I’d also add to this framework of a deal cause this makes Edmonton hard to beat 4 outta 7 games.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 22 at 3:17 a.m.
Thread: Flip
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BouchBomb</b></div><div>ew, parayko is one of the worst contracts in the league paying that much for him and a 4th liner is lunacy, I don't like ceci but I'd rather keep him at 3x2 than CP 6.5x7 with his injury history as trajectory over the past 2 seasons has been concerning also that 6.5M will hinder drai, Bouch, holloway, mcleod and possibly foegele from all re-signing</div></div>

I disagree. Parayko is a significant upgrade on Ceci. Health is a concern, that’s fair, but he’s having a good year. He looks healthy again. His cap hit is actually very fair, but the term is too long in an ideal world.

It’s about winning this year to compel these impending fa’s to re sign at a fair number to keep winning.

To re sign drai and bouch, someone probably has to get dealt anyways. Perhaps Nurse. Kane.

Foegele is a goner regardless.

Big decisions are coming. Now is not the time to be gun-shy.