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Valley_Milkman

Member Since
Aug. 16, 2016
Favourite Team
Ottawa Senators
2nd Favourite Team
Boston Bruins
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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 13, 2023 at 1:06 a.m.
Thread: keeping joseph
I do agree that he's positive value asset (nothing crazy, mid-to-late round pick return) that brings value to a team. He's definitely paid more than he should be for his current output, but I don't agree with the narrative that he'll cost assets to move.

To your main point though, I don't think the question should be if the Sens should keep Joseph. His role is valuable to help keep too much of the PK duties away from the top 6 while not overtaxing what was a very clearly outmatched 4th line, and his style of play fits very well with the way that Ottawa wants to play in general. The better question is whether they can afford to keep Joseph, and that can't be known until Ottawa knows what's happening with Cat (and to a lesser extent the other RFAs, but I would imagine that Dorion has a good idea of the ballpark on the relevant contracts). I expect that we'll have a pretty clear idea of where things stand there on the 28th, and as a result will have a pretty good idea if Joseph is going to be a 3rd liner in Ottawa or elsewhere come the 29th.

But yes, I do have a top 6 of Brady/Norris/Batherson and Greig/Timmy/Giroux penciled in after virtually any Cat trade that doesn't return a top 6 replacement.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 22, 2021 at 4:23 p.m.
Thread: Biggest Mistake in Team History
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>littlejerryseinfeld</b></div><div>Heatley put up back to back 100 point seasons on like the only good teams you've ever had and you call that one of the worst trades history?</div></div>

Heatley was great for a short period of time for Ottawa and Redden flamed out fast. Comparing that to the careers of both Hossa and Chara after they left Ottawa is where it gets bad fast.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>A_Habs_fan</b></div><div>Also Sens chose to sign Redden over Chara as UFA's</div></div>

They definitely chose Redden over Chara, but Chara was good friends with Hossa in Ottawa and the sign-and-trade really soured his relationship with the team. Even if they'd wanted to sign Chara over Redden, I'm not sure he would have stayed, which made the choice a moot point.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 7, 2019 at 10:20 a.m.
Thread: Prospect Depth Chart post draft
Not ready to comment about the 2019 draftees yet, but of the currently drafted stable, I would personally put Abramov ahead of Formenton on the left side, solely due to upside. He's way more boom or bust than Formenton, but his skill set still has me ranking him ahead. I see Abramov as top 6 or bust, whereas Formenton has a much higher floor (I'd say that he's practically a lock to make the team in 2020-21 after spending most of 2019-20 in Belleville with a couple of call-ups), but I think he's all but locked in as their 3LW of the future. Abramov might not make the NHL at all, but that higher risk has such a high-level skill set attached to it that he's still ahead of him on the prospect chart for me.

That being said, even ignoring the 11-13 picks in the top 62 the next 3 drafts, this is a legit stable of prospects. I love how deep the team suddenly is on the right side up front with the additions of Balcers, Davidsson, and Veronneau, and there's still a fairly big hole in the top 4 at RD that should absolutely be addressed, but the holes are getting patched up in fairly short order.

Strengths:
High end skill at both wings
Depth at all forward positions
High end - bordering on elite - skill at LD
High end depth at LD
Multiple potential starters in goal

Weaknesses:
Top 4 RD
High end 1C
"Can't miss" 1LW
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 19, 2018 at 7:46 p.m.
Thread: Ottawa should never have traded zibanejad for brassard
You're missing some other assets, too, and that isn't even counting the butterfly effect that the deals had.

Assets lost:
Zibanejad
2018 2nd (Jonatan Berggren)
2018 3rd (Justus Annunen)
Vincent Dunn (would have been unqualified anyways)

Assets gained:
Gustavsson
Nick Moutrey (not qualified)
2018 1st (Jacob Bernard-Docker)
2018 2nd (Jonathan Tychonick)
2018 7th (Luke Loheit)
2019 3rd (PIT)
2020 3rd (CBJ)

Dunn and Moutrey are a wash. Let's say that the cost of moving up from 33rd (the Berggren pick) to 26th (the Bernard-Docker pick) is the 64th pick (the Annunen pick), so those are balanced out, leaving us with:

Zibanejad being traded for Gustavsson, a mid-2nd round pick (48th, Tychoniak), a 7th round pick (Loheit), and 3rd round picks in both 2019 and 2020. All told, the trade is a middle of the road 2C (Zibanejad is 44th among centers in P/GP the past two seasons, min 45GP) for a top flight goalie prospect and four lottery tickets of varying value. It really doesn't look bad on the Sens, especially with the sheer number of prospects added in the net deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 11, 2018 at 6:16 p.m.
Thread: Thoughts on a few guys
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Claesson4Norris</b></div><div>I've really liked what I've seen from Chabot-DeMelo So far. The comparison has been made to Methot-Karlsson, but I think it's not totally accurate. Obviously Chabot has a more well rounded 200ft game than Karlsson did at that age, and while DeMelo lacks some of the Physicality that The Method Man brought, he's a better skater, has much better offensive instincts and is more capable of moving the puck on his own.

Also I'm not totally sure where Pageau fits in. It's surprising, but with how good Tierney and Smith have looked at centre, I'd be hesitant to move either to the wing. I think the most likely option is he slots back in on the second line with the old Dave Cameron special, Smith-Pageau-stone. I'd also consider moving him to the wing, which is where I see him long term any way once our young Centres move in. Maybe something like Dzingel-Duchene-Pageau or Boedker-Tierney-Pageau. I would probably go with one of the wing options because putting him at Centre and moving Smith to the wing pushes Tkachuk down to the 3LW which isn't ideal because he should be playing with Stone or Duchene.</div></div>

I like Pageau slotting in on the right wing where they've been trying White. Assuming that Formenton's sent back down to junior (he hasn't really showed enough to keep him up imo). Run something like:

Dzingel - Duchene - Pageau
Tkachuk - Smith - Stone
Boedker - Tierney - Ryan
Paajarvi - Pyatt - White

As a sidebar, how good has the second PP unit looked? I know that you highlighted most of them, but the Tkachuk/White-Tierney-Boedker-Lajoie-Wideman unit has looked really strong early on.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 11, 2018 at 6:04 p.m.
Thread: Maybe good
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>coga16</b></div><div>The fact that Guy Boucher had Mark Boroweicki and Cody Ceci on the Power player, you cant say the coaching is better, he hasnt changed anything in the way he has deployed his system. He still has guys like Tom Pyatt as one of your top TOI leaders in the foward group</div></div>

Sens D on the PP: Chabot 13:15, Wideman 9:41, Lajoie 9:27, Ceci 0:36, Borowiecki 0:09

Chabot plays as the sole D on the first unit, with Wideman and Lajoie on the second. Ceci's seen one actual shift on the PP in 4GP, playing 0:31 against Boston, plus 0:05 against Philly last night where 5 seconds carried over from an expiring PP from the prior period. Borowiecki's had 6 seconds against Boston and 3 against Philly, so came over the boards twice as a PP was expiring.

Pyatt's playing just over 13 minutes a game (13:09), good for 9th on the team in all situations, of which over 2 minutes per game (2:05) is on the PK. He's gotten no PP time (3 seconds total) and is also 9th on the team in even strength TOI, bumped up by heavier deployment in their first game. In Chicago he was 4th on the team in TOI, but he played on the third line against the Leafs and the fourth again both Boston and Philly (PK time bumped him up to 9th in ice time against the Bruins). You could argue that he should be getting 4th line minutes on a game-by-game basis, but neither Formenton nor White has played well enough to justify being ahead of him (both have shown flashes, but not nearly enough consistency).
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 21, 2018 at 1:37 p.m.
Thread: Overhauling the Back End (Bouchard edition) - CAR and VAN trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>yes</b></div><div>Trade value seems good but I think Carolina needs to insure a contract extension somehow even though they cannot negotiate until after the draft. But with that retained salary Karlsson at $3M does bring back a lot of value.</div></div>

Could definitely add some conditions to the 2019 pick. If Carolina extends Karlsson before the 2019 draft, Ottawa receives a 2019 1st (CAR); if Karlsson is extended/re-signed between the 2019 draft and the beginning of the 2019-20 season, Ottawa receives a 2020 1st (CAR) and a 2020 3rd (CAR) to compensate for the deferral. If Karlsson does not sign an extension or re-sign with Carolina, Ottawa receives... something. Possibly a 2020 3rd (CAR)? Not sure on the value there.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MT_11</b></div><div>"If Zadina is not available at #7" I will eat a microwave live on Periscope if Zadina is available past 4th. </div></div>

Yeah, that's definitely a typo lol. Fixed.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26, 2018 at 12:12 a.m.
Thread: WPG/STL with a new partner for Karlsson
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>StLHockey</b></div><div>I don’t think you’ll get both Fabbri and Kyrou. If you want Fabbri you’ll probably have to look at the 1b prospects like Kostin or Thompson. Army seems pretty intent on seeing what Kyrou and Thomas can do. Secondly, by the way he talked at the end of year presser that WPG 1st is pretty much trade bait. I wouldn’t expect to see us drafting in the 1st round unless we win the lottery.</div></div>

I actually view Kostin, Thompson, Thomas, and Barbashev as all ahead of Kyrou in the St Louis org on account of how much closer to NHL-ready they are. Kyrou has the potential, but he's likely a longer wait. It's a testament to how bad Ottawa's RW depth is (and just how down I am on Burrows that I buried him in the minors) that he cracks my lineup at 4RW.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 30, 2017 at 6:25 p.m.
Thread: Reposting for Ottawa feedback
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>hotNreadyWings</b></div><div>Interesting. I was thinking the opposite honestly. Ceci and karlson (although I know ceci has his moments) seem to have the right side pretty shored up. 3rd pair guys aren't hard to find imo. And I do know chabot is coming up. But you had a future top 4 with chabot karlson fleury ceci. Could be dominant</div></div>

Ottawa has Claesson (24), Sieloff (23), Harpur (22), Englund (21), Donaghey (21), Chabot (20), and Lajoie (19) as currently signed LHD under the age of 25 (plus Gormley who just turned 25), plus Wolanin (22) and Gendron (21) in the system. Compare that to Ceci (23), Erkamps (22), and Jaros (21) signed, plus Summers (21) as the only RHD in the pipeline. Ottawa is flush with guys pushing for time on the left side, and fairly thin all things considered on the right. If they add a LHD, it's likely to be a vet signed to a relatively short contract (with an outside chance of an established in-prime partner for Karlsson), whereas the right side is where they would be looking to add an on-the-cusp body or two.

And no, I'm not saying that all those LHD are going to pan out - Gormley's likely beyond his last chance at actually getting an NHL job, for example. It's more a comment that, organizationally speaking, they would be looking to add to the right more than the left.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 29, 2017 at 11:21 p.m.
Thread: MIN NJD
Appreciate the feedback. I'd originally had the trade in my head as Brodin, Pominville, and a pick for Brown and Dzingel, but a Wild friend of mine pointed out that MIN is really hurting for LHD prospects that are close to NHL-ready, which is a massive position of strength for OTT. RW is by far OTT's weakness from a prospect perspective, but trading Tuch took away MIN's top chip there, so I looked over at LW, and thought Greenway could be a fit, since I have him behind at least Eriksson Ek and Kunin for overall prospects, and probably Kaprizov as well (though the last is close). Given OTT's reluctance to touch Russians in the past decade, that put Greenway as the most likely.

Any suggestions on either changing the LD prospect moving MIN's way while keeping Greenway in the trade (Harpur is probably the most NHL-ready of the others, though he would probably require the Wild to give up a bit more in terms of the pick / adding another later pick to the deal), or keeping Englund going to the Wild with somebody other than Greenway as the return for OTT?

Also curious what NJD fans think of the other deal. It obviously implies the the Devils are moving towards competing sooner, but I think it might be something that they consider sooner rather than later given Schneider's age.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 16, 2016 at 1:21 p.m.
Thread: Resetting the Window
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div><i>You're dreaming if you think the Ducks want Ryan at 7.5m for 5 more years. The Ducks can give away Stoner (probably). Think St Louis would do that deal. Ottawa doesn't get all that much especially long term because Shattenkirk isn't resigning with Ottawa.</i></div></div>

The Ducks bringing Ryan back is less outlandish than bringing in Nash, especially when you couple Ceci in the package. Ducks fans both here and elsewhere have made comments about bringing him back, and shoring up their forward depth has to be a concern on a team trying to keep their window open. Stoner has negative value, and it would involve moving other assets to get rid of him. They already have Bieksa as an overpaid 5/6/7; having both on the payroll, plus an effective but still expensive Despres is pushing it for a team with a budget.

As far as the St Louis trade goes, you have to give to get. $6.5M is probably market value for Shattenkirk, and with the young core that Ottawa would have in place after these trades (Stone, Hoffman, Larkin, Mantha, Silfverberg, Jaskin, Pageau, Lindholm, Wideman, Hickets, and Mrazek all 26 or younger, with a cap situation that will allow the team to retain them all in the long term, coupled with an improving prospect pool that these trades only make deeper) being 1RD on that team would be a pretty cushy spot. The trade's a risk, and maybe you get St Louis to include a conditional pick, but taking that risk can help convince the player to sign, too. You have an entire year of him being the man on a competitive, young team whose window is wide open and only getting wider to convince him to sign.