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Villah

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Apr. 6, 2018
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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 6, 2018 at 3:04 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juice</b></div><div>I'll try and avoid points we've already had on this on other posts...but namely my stance is that, given similar circumstances, Centres will get paid more than Wingers.

The interesting thing with Nylander...this year especially...is that he had a bit of a down year....and by that I mean he's posted almost identical numbers to last year...which as a 2nd year player...you're hoping there's improvement made. So his re-signing will be really interesting to see what number he lands on. I don't think he's done anything to justify anything over $7m. To pay a 20g/60pt player that kind of coin assumes an upward trajectory...which we all assume will happen...but didn't this year. Because of this I feel he'll get re-signed to less term. The team won't go as high as his agent may demand and maybe they agree on shorter term which gets him closer to $5.5-$6.5 depending on the # of years....while he works to earn Babcock's trust as a full time C.

Marner had an abysmal start to the year...but since lining up with Marleau and Kadri has been on a 100pt/year pace...so his re-signing could be north of $7m easy. Probably a good idea to extend him sooner than later.

As for Tavares...obviously just shooting from the hip...but I figured he was 50-50 to stay or leave the NYI. After his comments the other day, answering "I don't know" when asked about his future...I think that number is lower now. I have no idea what priority number one will be for him...whether that's stayingclose to NY, going to whoever pays top dollar, or signing where he thinks he has the best chance to win.

I now think he's 30% likely to re-sign with the Islanders, 30% chance he moves to a team that offers him $10+ mil and is considered a cup contender right now, 30% he moves but goes somewhere he considers 'home' (be that NYR, NJ, Toronto) and 10% he just takes top dollar.

He's getting a lot of pressure from his long-time friends to come to Toronto...but I can definitely see why a hometown kid would avoid signing here. The constant demand for tickets and personal time along with the scrutiny of fans and media would make it a difficult spot to come to. I think the Leafs can make the cap space to fit him and will definitely make a pitch....they're a hometown team with short term Cup aspirations....but unless he's the kind of guy that's always dreamed of playing for the leafs...I think he takes an offer elsewhere.</div></div>

Thanks for the post. Well said.

I think there is something else to consider when we talk about how much these contracts are going to cost. At some point, you have to consider the philosophical side of things. How good is the culture on this team? Do young players sway to the side of pragmatism when time comes to make hard decisions? Obviously every player wants to win a stanley cup, and I feel that younger players may take notice about how hard it is to win now in the salary cap era. These kids watched hockey as fans after the salary cap was implemented, even during the Blackhawk's cup dynasty, and they know that the Blackhawk's winning window has slammed shut. To be fair, the league has more or less learned from the Blackhawks and how to manage the cap.

The big question is, will they accept a little less, to keep the team competitive their entire career? Or do the young players see big dollar signs instead? It'll come down to the player and how they feel. I would hope that Matthews, Marner and Nylander realize that if they want to play meaningful hockey their entire career, they have to accept contracts that are 1 or 2 million less than market value. The great thing about being a Maple Leaf legend is endorsements. Wendel Clarke, Doug Gilmore, Tie Domi, they will be raking in money until they die, and they didn't even make the finals, let alone win the cup.

If the big 3 do end up taking 30-35% of the team's cap, then we can at least rely on the salary cap going up, which it has been doing every year essentially. It could be as high as 90 million by 2020.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 6, 2018 at 11:43 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SuprDave45</b></div><div>Besides what the above post pointed out on your other kids and their contracts, I think your off on your numbers for the big three as well.

First.... fair, deserved or otherwise...It's wishful thinking to believe Nylander is going to settle for 6m. If Jack Eichel got 10m...how does Nylander not get 7 with ease? Even if you want to make the case that Eichel is better, he's better by 4m? Just because Nylander is third in the pecking order of Toronto's kids, doesn't mean he isn't worth his market value.

Let's dig deeper...
McDavid (21 years old): 1.21 PPG, got 12.5m
Eichel (21 years old): .84 PPG, got 10m
Draisaitl (22 years old): .76 PPG, got 8.5m

Don't forget that Toronto's kids are a year younger at least...so lets roll these guys back to 20...
McDavid (@ 20 years old): 1.16 PPG
Eichel (@ 20 years old): .79 PPG
Draisaitl (@ 20 years old): .55 PPG

Matthews (20 years old): .90 PPG He's gonna get 11m at least if you are giving him a long term deal... unless he takes less years and tries to hit the open market which would be a nightmare for Toronto.
Marner (20 years old): .82 PPG He's gonna get 8m on a breeze.
Nylander (21 years old): .72 PPG He's gonna get 7m, and a case can be made for him deserving more.

I know everyone wants John Tavares, we get it, its been posted 100 times. And if he left NY, I could see him liking Toronto as an option. I just don't see how Toronto is going to pull that off and retain every single kid they value. Someone is going to have to get moved if you have a prayer or fielding 4 lines and 6 dmen.

This is all without even considering that the Islanders would be brain dead to let him just walk. If they can't resign him, he's getting moved in a sign and trade. So stick Marner or Nylander in a deal and this all goes away! lol</div></div>

Great post! All good points.

I think we shouldn't be comparing Nylander to Eichel, it may be better to compare Nylander to Ehlers, who is 0.69 ppg, has the same impact on his team and only separated by one draft position. Also, compare Matthews to Eichel instead of McDavid.

Whatever the contracts end up being, it's safe to assume the cap situation can handle a player like Tavares or Carlson given that Marleau's 3rd year of his contract allows a cap floor team an easy trade and also that the 80 mil cap I assumed, might even be low for that season.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 6, 2018 at 10:56 a.m.