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Jun 14, 2019
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<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TanSor</b></div><div>The reason they might waive (in theory) is that they should want to win a cup. If they're exposed, Ron Francis should be fired immediately if he took one of Parise or Suter's contracts. Parise in particular has said he wants to win a cup, and it's hard to do that if you expose two young, talented players in Greenway or Ek who would definitely be taken by Seattle. And it's not Dumba for nothing, $6M is a ton of cap space (especially in a flat cap world) and that itself is an asset. I also disagree that Dumba is our ticket to a #1 center. He's a fine player, but I think GM's undervalue him relative to what us fans and Guerin thinks of him. If you have a subscription, check out Russo's article where he asks executives about fan proposals. The exectuvie implies that Dumba does not have a lot of value among GM's and Guerin isn't going to get what he's asking for, but also implies that he's still a great player. Our main assets are our prospects but I wouldn't be comfortable giving a lot of them up unless it's for someone like Eichel. If nobody wants to make a deal, then so be it. Continue to draft and develop. #1 centers hardly ever get traded, you have to build through the draft and that's what Guerin has been doing so far.</div></div>
We're in complete agreement on Dumba. I put the "nothing" in quotes, because we do get 6M in cap space and they don't take one of our young guys. I just think he's more valuable than Greenway. I still hate how many shifts Greenway takes off. It reminds me too much of Coyle, I guess.
I liked Russo's article with the GMs. He had alot of fun with that one. It sounds clear that we aren't getting a C1 through trades.
All in all I couldn't be happier with GMBG. I trust that whatever he decides to do with the Expansion Draft will be a good choice. He's done very well so far.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jcash08</b></div><div>Who would they protect over Greenway?
Assuming they go the 8 skaters route for 4 defenseman.
Kaprizov (Not sure if he is exempt or not)
Fiala (If Krill doesn't need to be protected)</div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>futurehofer</b></div><div>Joel Eriksson Ek is getting protected no matter what since he's 2nd on the team in goals, 5th in points, and a stud defensively. He's also a center which we have basically none of at the moment. Kaprizov is exempt so we don't have to worry about giving him a slot. Assuming nobody waives their NMC, here's who we will protect in each scenario:
7/3/1: Parise, Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, Fiala, Greenway, Foligno, Sturm/Hartman, Brodin, Spurgeon, Suter, Kahkonen
8/1: Parise, Zuccarello, Eriksson Ek, Fiala, Brodin, Spurgeon, Suter, Dumba, Kahkonen
The Sturm/Hartman choice would depend on how likely it is we think Hartman will want to re-sign for a palatable number. His arbitration value is likely too high for us next year.
Personally, I'd go the 7/3/1 route. It allows us to protect more players that we want to keep. If Dumba is picked, it's $6 million in cap room that we can use going forward. Depending on who else Seattle decides to take, there's a slight chance they'd pick Talbot or Soucy from us over Dumba. If that were to happen, I'd trade Dumba for the best offer at the draft and hope to either get a decent top 6 center or a nice couple draft picks.</div></div>
I agree with virtually everything <a href="/users/futurehofer" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@futurehofer</a> said here.
I don't expect anyone will waive their NMCs. Parise and Suter have no reason to. Zuccarello specifically negotiated it into his contract knowing this was coming. Spurgeon and Brodin would never get asked to waive. So that means we're protecting the 5 of them regardless of what we do.
My guess is that the Wild will go 4-4-1 because Dumba for "nothing" would really hurt. In that case we can only protect two forwards. With KK being exempt the next best two players are Fiala and Ek and it's not even close.
If we protect Dumba from the draft, I wouldn't follow up and trade him. We're not going to be able to trade for a C1. There's just no way anyone will make a deal with us. And the Wild have no other needs (which feels really weird to say, but it's true).
So I think it's stay the course, try for aC2 free agent and hope that Rossi and Boldy come through.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JayTea</b></div><div>Other than being an absolutely insane overpay, have fun extending Kaprizov, Fiala, Ek and signing 5-6 other skaters you'll need next year with $16m in cap space.</div></div>
Future cap space is definitely a concern, but how much of an overpay is it really? If we aren't going to trade existing NHLers for him, then I think something like this works.
Now, we could fix the cap space problem by going Fiala, Boldy, 1st, 1st. But what does it actually take to be fair here? In my prospects model above maybe we remove Khovanov and the 2022 pick, but still if we're giving up only prospects and picks for an Eichel it's going to hurt.
I haven't seen a design yet that both MN and Buffalo fans thought was fair.