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Wreckless

Wreckless
Member Since
Sep 1, 2020
Favourite Team
Montreal Canadiens
Location
Montreal
Forum Posts
678
Posts per Day
4.74
Forum Threads
66
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 9:33 am
Thread: Pierre Lebrun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>I just watched Eric Engels break down the quarantine period on the SDPN and he says its 14 days and thats once he enters the country. Games are being played every other day. Maybe 1/4 isnt exact but its not far off.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uMJtfLuX_F0

Youll have to select the time stamp where they interview Eric specifically.

As for the proposal, i think its way too much. Its equivalent to more than paying the max offer sheet compensation IMO. Which I use as a rule of thumb. No player should be worth more than four 1st rounders except for generational talents UNLESS your desperate. Habs arent desperate.

I dont think there is a deal to be made this year frankly. Thats why i mentioned its better for CLB to be patient. Theyll have way more teams interested when they'll have more cap to play with. Plus the Seattle expansion may help as well.

For sure though, taking cap implications out of the situation, KK+prospect+1st is fair. In season, you got to start adding players to offset salary and cap which just makes a deal of this magnitude very hard.

Either way its all presumptive. If someone offers CLB a silly package now, my point is moot. If they get a better offer in the off season, then its valid. Theres really no way to know for sure. Only guesses.</div></div>

If that is the ask from Columbus, I’m sure Bergevin will pay the price. Your point about “in season being tough because of balancing out salary” is valid and it’s predominantly why I floated the 50% retained salary idea. For those who argue that Columbus is small market and can’t afford to retain salary, Dubois’s next contract will be exponentially more than KK’s. The trade saves them tons of money even if it 50% retained to make the cap fit for the Habs.

So Dubois at a $2.5mm cap hit for KK, a prospect, and a 1st makes sense to me. They can have either Armia or Byron, or we can find a home for them somewhere else to make room for a Dubois.

The Aho offer sheet would have netted Columbus a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd at a $8.4mm cap hit. KK, a prospect, and a first is an overpay, so Columbus needing to retain salary is not unreasonable.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 4:35 pm
Thread: Pierre Lebrun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>What is the need? The player wants out of Columbus, Habs are already solid down the middle already, they dont have cap to just add a player, trading players now means losing 1/4 of the season of their production due to covid protocols. Not to mention 1/4 of the season of the players theyre losing in the trade too. Habs still have to make the playoffs also. 1/4 of the season could make or break your chances in this division this year.

PLD is under contract. He has no choice but to play for CLB. Columbus controls his destiny 100%. No need to rush a deal here. As it is right now, there are so many factors that detract from Columbus maximizing value and other teams willingness to overspend.

PLD could score 5 goals all year and would still be very desired. Its not going anywhere. Hes vowed to be a good teammate so there shouldn't be any friction from that standpoint. My sole concern is Torts ego getting the better of him. If im Jarmo, id shut that down asap because it makes Jarmos job even harder. Torts should want a smooth transition also so its in his best interest.

As for "full value", its subjective. My full value might differ from yours. In my head, full value is equivalent to offer sheeting him at max compensation. As it stands right now, because Columbus is being forced to trade an asset they wouldnt normally, they've lost some negotiating power and all teams know this and hence will not give full value.

If Jarmo doesnt like it, he can choose to keep PLD but that means keeping a player that openly doesnt want to play there and the media circus that comes with it.

And just to clarify because ppl on here like to exaggerate, i do not mean that Dubois for Mete and a 4th would be fair now. CLB will still net a very nice return, just not "full value".</div></div>

Quarantine is 7 days following a trade. Where are you getting 1/4 of a season? Typically 3 games out of 56, so ~ 1/20. Mete and a 4th is a strawman.

Do you think my proposal would be “full value”? I’d argue it’s an overpay, but I would still do it cuz I’d argue it would make us better both now and in the future.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 11:01 am
Thread: Pierre Lebrun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>F50marco</b></div><div>There are only a few teams who have A: the pieces B: the need for a centre C: the cap space and D: the want to make the trade this year.

Honestly, the best solution for Columbus is simply to tell Torts to stop being a prick and play him and make the trade in the offseason.

I know its a cliche thing to say on here but given all the circumstances going on right now, no team is gonna give Columbus full value right now. Their only real hope is him having another solid season this year and waiting till the offseason when every team has way more cap to work with.</div></div>

Walk me through your thinking as to why Bergevin wouldn’t give fair value in trade right now. Also, what trade proposal do you think would represent fair market value?
Forum: Armchair-GMTue at 9:33 am
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 5:06 pm
Thread: Dubois for Kotkaniemi
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>masterjuddi</b></div><div>The guy is under contract for 2 years, he's 22 and only getting better. I dont think they are dealing him anytime soon, that's just my opinion. Guys asked to be traded all the time and it doesn't happen until the team is ready. PLD signed a deal, showed up to camp and is in the lineup...best thing he can do is play the best hockey he can. He couldve held out...he could've refused to attend camp but he didnt. I agree that it's a fair deal, but it probably wouldve happened already if it was on the table</div></div>

When Jarmo decides that he’s actually going to move him, he’ll give Bergevin a call and a deal will get done. Thinking things like “he’s under contract for two years and this isn’t going to be bad” is denial, plain and simple. The fact that Dubois actually signed that 2 year contract was done with the specific purpose of making a deal more likely. That offer was disrespect, pure and simple. He’s gone, the writing is on the wall, and he’s James Harden in the meantime. It’s not a good situation for Columbus. Jarmo will realize this sooner rather than later. Asking for Suzuki is nonsense. There isn’t a team in the league who will move an equivalent player to Suzuki with 2 years remaining on ELC. They’d be lucky to get someone comparable to KK, let alone possibly some of the extra pieces that we could add to the package. Jarmo is doing his due diligence, no doubt, asking what possibilities are out there, but it won’t take long before he realizes what time it is.
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 11:16 am
Forum: Armchair-GMFri at 11:03 am
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 14 at 11:47
Thread: Dubois
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>villenash</b></div><div>I don't think Armia needs to be involved -- so yeah, change the 2nd to a 1st and remove Armia. That's about as far as I would go. Dubois hasn't really shown he's a true 1C except maybe a bit in these past playoffs for only a handful of games. I just feel like his value is being overblown on this site because he is a young C with high draft pedigree -- but he hasn't quite reached that next level in his game yet (I am well versed in young C with high draft pedigree from CBJ, and look how Johansen has turned out -- just saying). I believe he'll be a great player for a lot of years, but people are acting like McDavid is available with some of the trades I've seen lol</div></div>

I agree with you re: Dubois thus far. He hasn't proven to be among the elite yet, but I strongly believe that he'll get there. Things that I believe to be true in his case:
A) We're trying to win this year and next and he's more advanced than where JK is right now in trying to help us accomplish that goal.
B) His contract works perfectly for the Habs. His cap hit is an appropriate benchmark for what we will need to pay our other centers, and it likely puts a ceiling on both Danault and Suzuki's next contracts.

In short, he's worth way more to us than he is to Columbus (or arguably any other team in the league). Bergevin and Jarmo already came together once on a trade for core players, it's hardly a stretch to think that they'll be able to do it again. Especially given that Dubois, his agent, and the team have gone public.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 14 at 11:34
Thread: Dubois
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>villenash</b></div><div>waaaaaaaaaaay too much... Dubois is not worth 6 1st rounders, come on. Dubois is being completely overvalued on this site.

edit: unless you're talking about swapping out KK for a combination of others listed in the 2nd trade...</div></div>

Correct. Dubois wants out, and it's public to the point that the coach is sounding off over it. So he's not exactly overflowing with trade value right now.
If Jarmo doesn't want KK (which I doubt would be true), then he can be swapped for a combination of those other assets.

But assuming Columbus is going to sell to the highest bidder somewhere in the near future so that this doesn't become a distraction (e.g. Houston Rockets), it's hard to imagine many teams who are willing to move on from (for example) their recent top 3 pick from the NHL draft. I think the Habs can easily beat any other package that Jarmo gets offered with the pieces listed above, but it's possible that Jarmo is holding out for KK needing to be part of the package (or to not need to take on extra salary).

But as for what the exact trade package will end up being? I don't think it's going to take nearly as much as most people on this site think.