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A_K
Lets Go Blues
Member Since
Jun. 30, 2016
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St. Louis Blues
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Forum:
Armchair-GM
5 hours ago
Thread:
Dvorsky
I assume Dvorsky is AHL eligible? I know he was when he left the SHL, not sure if playing OHL this season changed anything. I think he should develop in Springfield next year.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheEarthmaster</b></div><div>I can't really get worked up about who is going to play 3C if there are literally no other significant roster changes being made besides just bringing in Snuggerud. If Armstrong insists on keeping (or is forced to keep) the team in neutral then you might as well just play Schenn there. You do what's best for Dvorsky's development at that point, because I think you'd be hard pressed to expect much more out of this roster than we've seen this year.
I also don't think that Bolduc, Dean and Snuggerud are going to play so well down the stretch this season as to make the Blues forgoe bringing in any forward help this summer. I don't think they can go into the season with all of those guys penciled in for a roster spot. Veterans are fine as long as they don't cost too much money for too long. That's what really makes Stephenson a non-starter for me.</div></div>
Doug with money to spend is a scary thought...
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 11 at 1:54 p.m.
Thread:
Actual ReTool
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aktobos71</b></div><div>Iam against buyout. Points wise he is more than decent. Just wait another year and trade him at 50 retention. Better trade both Faulk and krug in same year of their M-NTC. And everybody saying defence is a problem, Iam tired of hearing it. In my opinion offence is a bigger problem check shots stats, and few teams who above blues in standings have worse GA but their GF helped him negate this problem.</div></div>
I just don't see the trade market for Krug but no doubt trading him at 50% is an easier solution than the lengthy buyout. Maybe after another year is gone and the term is less of an issue, but I'd rather move on ASAP and try to find a better all-around dman to plug into the top4.
Plenty of blame to go around and it is definitely a nuanced topic. Effective defensemen spend less time defending and improve the transition game which can make it easier on forwards to generate more offense. Effective forwards backcheck responsibly and prevent odd man rushes by being responsible on the puck. When the team doesn't play as a five man unit, hard to place the blame on either group. But once you have enough data to look at, I'd say it's the Blues' inability to get out of their zone that causes the most problems. Poor puck decisions, lack of confidence to make the best play, costly turnovers. They spend way too much time in their zone and it ruins a lot of shifts and chances to gain momentum.
The bigger point, though, is that the forward group is already going to change over the next couple of years with the younger guys coming in and hopefully moving some of the veteran guys down the lineup. The defense is going to remain the same mediocre group unless something drastic is done.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 29 at 5:12 p.m.
Thread:
BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Disgusting to say that Dunn was future Krug and we needed established Krug more - That's not what I was saying. What I was saying was Dunn at the time could not be trusted whatsoever in the defensive zone. They tried it, it was a mess. We needed a PPQB once Pietrangelo left - another mistake that I believe is very heavily tied to trading for Faulk, and for some reason not giving Pietrangelo a NMC. We were in a competitive window and you should look at the production and numbers Krug has put up, he's a top end point producer, or at least was until last year.
They did the same thing with Dunn, he'd try 10 stretch passes and create tons of offense, but got scapegoated because one would lead to a turnover. - This is the result of being in a competitive window and being a team that is not in a competitive window. We have been outside of a competitive window for probably one season. I would argue at the start of last season we too were believed to be in a competitive window. They make a mistake and they were benched, it's a team that's trying to compete at a high level. Detroit had the ability to allow him to grow. Seattle had the ability to let Dunn grow. Their results were much better than the standard they played to last season.
in regards to your final paragraph. I'm not sure why you are quick to write off or champion a prospect after a half a season in their D+1. Lets also just completely overlook the fact that out of that Stenberg as a May birthday 18 year old just had an outstanding WJC on a silver medal team whereas, aside from Brindley, none of those players were selected. Yes USA was stacked but Sweden was also a very high end team. Stenberg was also drafted off of the back of a fantastic Hlinka Gretzky Cup where i believe he was the captain. You are complaining about getting a pretty high end prospect as opposed to getting a different good looking prospect. Potential is the biggest fallacy around. How many guys fully tap into their potential? And how many prospects are tap into a potential that isn't perceived at a certain time? There's a very distinct advantage to drafting younger players in the class, they are many months behind in their development compared to other members of the class. I don't know about you but I'll take the guy that has proven himself multiple times against peers that's behind in development due to age at pick 25. If your standoff from him is he isn't 6'2 or playing in a league you are more familiar with I don't know what to tell you.</div></div>
Alright I should’ve left out the part out about the prospects. You’re approaching this with way too level of a head and I was steaming red enough to rant about it on here lol. Stenberg has plenty of runway, so does Lindstein. I just wouldn’t have complained if they went something like Musty and Gulyayev who I think have much more talent to work with if they can put it all together. My real gripe is with the later picks but that’s always a crap shoot.
I understand your argument about how you can’t have long leashes with players when the team is competitive but I just don’t see how the guys he brought in were the correct answers. He fumbled the defense and it forced him to retool quicker than he should have. Now I worry that his retool isn’t going to work and we’ll stay stuck in mediocrity. But hey this is what we’ve got so let’s see how it goes.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 29 at 4:20 p.m.
Thread:
BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>Some very hot takes taken here without looking at context of what was going on at the time. Alot of these moves were made out of the necessity of trying to stay in a cup window.
Faulk is the only move I can criticize because it didn't make any sense to bring him in given what we currently had. I'd imagine the market for top 4 defenseman was pretty dry at the time ad we wanted to add more boost. However neither Faulk nor Pietrangelo played great on the left side. It was frankly terrible to watch and a complete mess.
You're looking from the future on alot of these situations. I loved Vince Dunn, but he was essentially Torey Krug on an small deal at the time of the expansion draft. Yes he was a better skater, but he was a mess defensively and we were in a very competitive window at the time. I think everyone thought that Seattle would take Tarasenko in the expansion draft not Dunn.
Walman also could not stay in the lineup. He was inconsistent and not really all that impactful. For Walman and Dunn if you want to criticize a lack of knowing what they had, sure. But we weren't in a position to deal with mistakes of younger players as we were in a presumed window.
I'm not sure what exactly your criticism of the drafting is about. The Blues by many standards have had fantastic drafts for the recent memory. I'm also not sure why you're complaining about Stenberg who is very young for the class and has performed extremely well on the international stage. The Blues have drafted young players for the class who have perceived high floors. Are you going to hit a superstar with that, I dont know, but we have 2 very high end prospects in our pool, and we recently just had the most amount of prospects at the WJC (tied) and had some of the best production (definitely weighted by amount of forwards). That's discounting the impact that noted High Floor, Poor Skating Jake Neighbors is currently having. Bolduc is at the NHL level currently at 20 years old. Lindstein was a late 1st who in a redraft probably goes early/mid 1st round. I just don't see the complaint or worry in regards to the Blues drafting young for their class, high floor guys. There is very little volatility and a high chance these players are NHL players. The chances of 1st round draft picks especially at the positions we've been picking them to turn out the way ours have are extremely slim. There's only a couple of other teams I think draft to the level or better than the Blues, and that's Vegas and Carolina.</div></div>
There's no benefit of hindsight on any of these tacky extensions. Simply don't sign them. Choose better players. The argument that we needed to keep the window open is fair, except the guys that were supposed to keep the window open are the ones slamming it shut.
Disgusting to say that Dunn was future Krug and we needed established Krug more. Even at the time there was no argument to spend 7 x 6.5m on Krug and expose Dunn. None. This organization just can't identify what makes a quality defenseman.
Walman sucked here because the Blues staff neutered him into oblivion. Play 10 min per night with Bortuzzo and don't make a single mistake or you'll go to the press box. Dude went to Detroit and all his quotes were "I'm just happy to play my game and be comfortable out there". They did the same thing with Dunn, he'd try 10 stretch passes and create tons of offense, but got scapegoated because one would lead to a turnover.
We'll see about the draft picks, it's early, but my point is that we don't need "NHLers", we need impact guys. Getting two extra 1st round picks and then using them on safe players. He ADMITTED PUBLICLY that he thought Lindstein was comparable to Gunnarsson, a 16 min per night no.5. Dman... and Stenberg going right before Musty, Ritchie, Cowan, Nadeau, Brindley, Cristall... we'll see in a few years if you'll still defend that one. I'd rather see us strike out on guys with upside that never make it than pat a guy's back for getting us the next Brandon Saad or Oskar Sundqvist.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 29 at 2:43 p.m.
Thread:
BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>1 - Dude, what?? No clue what you're missing. I used to think he was a less mean Ekholm. I may have undersold him.
2 - First of all, I did not say that one D change make us a contender. More importantly, puck decisions affect every single thing you mentioned and every single thing you didn't. Handling of the puck touches every aspect of the game, in both directions, PLUS the mental part of the game. Puck decisions are everything. Whether your roster is in a transition phase or contending, puck decisions can make you or doom you. That's not the weeds. That's the forest.</div></div>
Ok, if they just made better decisions with the puck, they'd be good. Unfortunately the summation of puck decisions is what equates to the quality of the player, and that's hard to change.
Regardless of how hopeful you are that the roster can transition into something better, is it unfair to say that the GM galaxy-brained the last 5 years? Is he not allowed to receive criticism for his terrible contracts? A rebuild/retool/re-whatever - that was always going to happen in the "window" world that the cap produces - would be much easier if there wasn't a massive amount of money owed to under-performers.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 29 at 2:28 p.m.
Thread:
BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HolyJumpin81</b></div><div>THANK YOU. Doug literally said 2023 was the cores last dance. Its clear that the weakness is the offense. Honestly watching this team the blue line gets absolutely no help from most of the forwards (besides a few)</div></div>
Regardless, there was a stronger defense already in place and Army went out of his way to downgrade from Petro/Dunn/Walman to Faulk/Krug/Leddy. The forwards definitely deserve some criticism - and thankfully I do think help is on the way - but this roster construction was never going to work.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 29 at 2:23 p.m.
Thread:
BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>First of all, step back from the ledge about our prospects, buddy. Lindstein is far better than Gunny (who isn't a bad thing btw). Develop is not a straight line, sometimes demotions are just to allow the kid to play top minutes with top responsibilities before he comes back.
As for the defense, I keep saying this, it's not all about "the defense" crew. So much of the blame lies with the forwards it's not funny. Schenn by himself turns the puck over in/at our zone more than all our Dmen besides Krug put together. And when it is the Dmen, it's often not even the D part. It's the puck decisions part. Turning over the puck at our line to give the other team a 2 on 0 or passing straight to their unmarked guy in the slot are not really "D" matters. Puck decisions are the #1 problem plaguing the Blues, both this season and last. We're too cute too often. That's not how we're meant to play. We're not meant to be reckless with the puck and then chase it all night. We need puck control, and this group is way too careless. Silly mistakes with no pressure and everything. Hard to blame the D or the G when they keep getting these impossible situations thrown at them.
If we cannot move Krug, just buy him out prior to UFA day. Grab Forsling. That one change would change SO much. We need to play the offseason smarter than we've played the regular season. Past decisions are gone, we go from here.</div></div>
Lindstein is David Runblad if he isn't Carl Gunnarsson. Maybe I'm exaggerating the prospect part but it's impossible to judge for a few more years. I just don't see much to get hyped about.
You're getting into the weeds when you talk about puck decisions; look at the big picture and tell me that replacing Krug with Forsling is gonna make this team a contender. 3 guys on pace to eclipse 45 pts. 21st in goals, 15th in goals against while getting the absolute max performance from the goalie tandem. Anyone who needs to be moved can decline the trade. This team is stuck in the mud my friend.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 29 at 2:14 p.m.
Thread:
BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mike7856</b></div><div>Oof then yeah, I’d be pissed too</div></div>
It was the first domino that led us to this mediocre, directionless roster build.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 29 at 2:11 p.m.
Thread:
BLAME ARMSTRONG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mike7856</b></div><div>To be fair, Pietrangelos extension would likely have had to be higher than the 8.8m for income taxes and his net income. Granted it would be like signing him at 10m which I’m sure most blue fans wouldn’t have minded after bringing you the cup.</div></div>
Could've offered him the 8th year tho, rumors around town are that he would've signed 7.5 x 8 to stay but Armstrong wouldn't give him a full NMC.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 20 at 12:33 p.m.
Thread:
Deadline Sell
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Edmonton does not have the cap space to spend their top 3 assets for another left-shot winger, especially a guy who has 1 goal in 20 career playoff games.
I could see a smaller deal for Sunny though. What's he worth - a 3rd / 4th?</div></div>
Yeah he went for a 4th rounder last year, probably something similar if the Blues put him on the board.
I really don't think you'd be disappointed in Buch, that's a pretty unfair portrayal of the guy.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 20 at 11:57 a.m.
Thread:
Deadline Sell
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hammerwise</b></div><div>You're eating alot of money long term for Hayes for a late round 2nd in a weak draft?</div></div>
If they can get a better pick I'd be overjoyed. FWIW I don't think the Blues will be spending to the cap for the next couple seasons - not sure how aggressive Armstrong is going to be in the middle of his little retool effort.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 20 at 11:54 a.m.
Thread:
Deadline Sell
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MidnightRyder</b></div><div>The EDM trade is absolutely terrible for STL</div></div>
I could think of a lot worse. First round picks are accepted currency anywhere and these guys are 22 yrs old and have NHL tools, just need the right tool chest. What is your expectation if Buch is traded?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 13 at 2:56 p.m.
Thread:
Please stop trading for Parayko
Leafs linked to Parayko for at least 5 years :tearsofjoy just gotta roll with it fellas
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 8 at 12:20 p.m.
Thread:
Buchnevich
I would think it takes something like Holloway + Akey + 1st for the Blues to trade Buch, and maybe more with retention. Definitely shouldn't be ok with taking Campbell.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 1 at 5:14 p.m.
Thread:
The Value of Buchnevich
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>qc14</b></div><div>I appreciate the thought in your description but at the end of the day all of these arguments are meaningless. NHL teams decide whether they're going to trade a player or not, then worry about price -- there's no magical 'godfather' offer or breaking point at which they make decisions like that. IF (and that's a big if) the Blues decide to trade Buch, the return will be extremely predictable.
At the end of the day, he is a good (even very good!) player but not a superstar approaching 30. Those players ALWAYS go for exactly 1 first, 1 a B- to B+ prospect, and salary filler to make the deal work. Sometimes you get that extra second, sometimes you don't. Lindholm is just the latest in a long line of the exact same returns for this level of player. Horvat, Meier, DeBrincat, Bertuzzi, ROR, Tarasenko, Fiala, Giroux, Tofolli, Reinhart, Mantha are all just forward examples from the last 3 years. Add H. Lindholm, Orlov, Kuemper in there as well for even more comps or if you want to stretch back the time period a bit add in Zucker, Stone, Pacioretty, Hall, K Hayes as well.
The ONLY players who have been moved for significantly more than this are Eichel and Tkachuk -- two players who could make legitimate claims to being top 10 forwards in the league both now and at the time they were traded -- and Brandon Hagel, who had a uniquely low cap hit / buyer in Tampa. I think Buchnevich is certainly towards the higher end of players in that first group, but definitely not in the Eichel/Tkachuk tier.
The final thing I'd say is about "cap dumps." A cap dump is taking on a bad contract (especially one with many years left) in exchange for picks. Most trades for big players don't involve dumps but rather salary filler. Guys who probably are overpaid/paid for too long but are necessarily taken back to facilitate a deal. Think Craig Smith to WSH last year in the Orlov deal, Rutta/Granlund/Petry/Hoffman in the Karlsson deal, Beauvillier in the Horvat deal, and most recently Kuzmenko in the Lindholm deal. These players do not increase the value that a team gets back for taking them - it's just the cost of doing business. Ceci/Forbort/Atkinson all fall into this category and would not increase the amount of futures needed for a deal. Even Kuznetsov is bordering right on that level for that proposal, and certainly wouldn't add a whole other first rounder.</div></div>
Can't argue about the salary + B prospect + late 1st package for a 1yr rental, but Buch would be a 2-yr rental, at either 5.8m or 2.9m. If no one wants to offer better than the stock rental package, no reason to do it until next season.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 30 at 3:20 p.m.
Thread:
STL in on chychrun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>Yeah that's why I was talking about gambling... and seriously after having to endure the biggest casino madman as a GM for 7 years, we need to make more calculated risks now.</div></div>
IMO that Blues pick is very similar to the 1st rd pick that landed you guys Chych. Was a gamble by ARI that worked out for them (12oa) but could've gone pretty badly if OTT went on a late run like they wanted to. Blues don't have the underlying numbers to really push the pick toward the back half of the draft but crazier things have happened for sure. It's always a gamble.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 30 at 3:14 p.m.
Thread:
STL in on chychrun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>Why? 20th OA pick and Bolduc? Other pieces don't have positive value
If the pick was 15th OA, it'd be more fair yeah but that's a bit of gambling</div></div>
FWIW the west is so lousy this year that the Blues pick could still land virtually anywhere. On a five game W streak but only 5 pts out of a bottom 10 spot.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 30 at 2:21 p.m.
Thread:
Buy the dip
You can see how marner is a pretty lousy trade piece right? I mean that’s why you’d even consider moving him. Gonna ask for a fortune and that’s if he would consider sticking around.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 30 at 2:02 p.m.
Thread:
chych trades
Seems weird to get 3 yrs of the guy for a 1+2+2, then a year later expect to get a very similar 1+2+2 again. But tbh I'd say yes for Blues with a few caveats. Top5 protection, '24 2nd pushed a few yrs out and they could throw Scandella in there to make the cap work. He has a 7-team NTC (would it be all Canada?) and is on an expiring deal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 25 at 2:15 p.m.
Thread:
If you could have second shot at anyone from this years waiver wire
Bjornfot has had a decent set of challenges so far but I still see some upside that would've been worth it for a team like STL that is icing an atrocious defense. I guess the real issue for the Blues is moving people out, not bringing people in.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 24 at 1:09 p.m.
Thread:
Blues Fans
Rinse, repeat. Every time I see a Blues-Leafs trade on here it's for Parayko and the comment section is always the exact same stuff lol I'm tired. Plus some of y'all act like Rasmus Ristolainen didn't post terrible, god awful numbers all while looking horrific every single game in Buffalo... just to get traded for a 1st rd pick.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 19 at 3:47 p.m.
Thread:
Deadline version 69 - gut this team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>STLBlues17</b></div><div>Last night officially put me in tank mode.</div></div>
Welcome aboard the ship, let's take on some water. Admittedly this was a really tough part of the schedule, but it feels like the past 2 games mark the end of the new coach bump. This team is just low on talent and unable to outscore the elephant-in-the-room top 4 defense. Like <a href="/users/AC14" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@AC14</a> said, the depth beyond the top line is just not there. And we've been waiting for the special teams to show up but we're now past the halfway point and it's still a bottom 3 PP. It could've gone either way this season, but now the important thing is that it goes either way. Don't finish in 17th place for the love of God.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 19 at 12:38 p.m.
Thread:
Deadline version 69 - gut this team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AC14</b></div><div>There's tons of good D in the 2-15 range.
Levshunov, Dickinson, Parekh, Buuim, Silayev. After that there's still guys like Mews, Kiviharju, Jiricek. Its a pretty good draft for D men.</div></div>
For sure. I would like to see them take one out of that top 5 and that likely means top 10. Looking at the standings it wouldn't be hard to get there, especially with a deadline sell.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 18 at 4:31 p.m.
Thread:
what could of been if army wasnt in charge
Based on the way Seattle picked IRL (low cap hits) I would think they take Barbashev in this parallel universe. Still would've been a much better Blues team without Doug galaxy-braining the defense and signing plugs to forever contracts. Never seen a GMs performance fall off so hard; the guy built a cup-winning roster with just one guy he drafted in the top 13, lots of FAs and shrewd acquisitions. Then he tries to build on the success and fumbles basically every single decision since.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 17 at 1:48 p.m.
Thread:
lineup after callups
Love that top line getting back together, I think they were all playing their best hockey together and the skillsets mesh really well. I think Gaudette will take the RW next to Sunny at 3C. Honestly I think it would be a nice time to see Alexandrov at 3C - he's only played more than 8 min 2x this season, maybe they should actually see what he's got.
There has to be a better way to arrange the D pairs than what they've been rolling out. 4-55 is bad, 47-72 is worse. If now isn't the time to experiment, when is?
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